Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method

针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概率的概念。采用经典的容量停运表模型,建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估,研究不同负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况,并分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分析,风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、中、低损失范围的条件期望风险,从而对系统的风险状况有一个全面和深入的了解。

Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Research Progress in Occupational Health Risk Assessment Methods in China

Traditional occupational disease control and prevention has remained prevalent in China over recent decades. There are appropriately 30,000 new case reports of occupational diseases annually. Although China has already established a series of occupational disease prevention programs, occupational health risk assessment （OHRA） strategies continue to be a limitation.

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timing,scope of wind and rain,and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases,are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai from 1959–2006.The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed,and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results.The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai.The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model,and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster.Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa (0716) would be more serious than those by TC Wipha (0713),and that TC Fung Wong (0808) would have a weak impact.Real-life situations validate these results.

Risk calculation method for complex engineering system

This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.

2022 Multiple-country Monkeypox Outbreak and Its Importation Risk into China:An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.

Analytical Methods for Environmental Risk Assessment of Acid Sulfate Soils: A Review

Assessment of acid sulfate soil risk is an important step for acid sulfate soil management and its reliability depends very much on the suitability and accuracy of various analytical methods for estimating sulfide-derived potential acidity, actual acidity and acid-neutralizing capacity in acid sulfate soils. This paper critically reviews various analytical methods that are currently used for determination of the above parameters, as well as their implications for environmental risk assessment of acid sulfate soi1s.

Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational experience of similar projects, the study of generic guidance on hazards associated with the type of work being undertaken, and discussions with qualified and experienced staff from the project team, etc., the specific risks during the construction process of the metro station constructed by enlarging shield tunnels combined with the cut-and-cover method are identified. The results show that the specific risks mainly come from three construction processes which include constructing upper enclosure structures, excavating the soil between shield tunnels and demolishing shield segments. Then relevant risk mitigation measures are put forward. The results can provide references for scheme improvement and a comprehensive risk assessment of the new-style construction method.

A RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD OF THE WIRELESS NETWORK SECURITY

The core of network security is the risk assessment. In this letter,a risk assessment method is introduced to estimate the wireless network security. The method,which combines Analytic Hier-archy Process (AHP) method and fuzzy logical method,is applied to the risk assessment. Fuzzy logical method is applied to judge the important degree of each factor in the aspects of the probability,the influence and the uncontrollability,not to directly judge the important degree itself. The risk as-sessment is carved up 3 layers applying AHP method,the sort weight of the third layer is calculated by fuzzy logical method. Finally,the important degree is calculated by AHP method. By comparing the important degree of each factor,the risk which can be controlled by taking measures is known. The study of the case shows that the method can be easily used to the risk assessment of the wireless network security and its results conform to the actual situation.

Risk assessments of debris flow based on improved analytic hierarchy process and efficacy coefficient method

In order to evaluate the danger of debris flow properly, eight factors were selected as the risk assessment indexes of the debris flow, namely the vertical slope, valley relative difference, hillside slope, area of basin, loose solid material reserves, the path length of sediment supply probability, silting and scouring derricking and vegetation coverage. The improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to obtain the weights of the factors; and the efficacy coefficient method was adopted to evaluate the risks of six typical debris flow gullies. According to the research, the improved AHP method not only avoids the subjectivity in the individual factor valuation by comparing two factors of each layer, but also makes the subsequent consistency check unnecessary.

Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.

Indoor air quality risk assessment on the Canadian campus by a multilevel integrated weighted average method

Increasing incidents of indoor air quality(IAQ) related complaints lead us to the fact that IAQ has become a significant occupational health and environmental issue. However, how to effectively evaluate IAQ under different scale of multiple indicators is still a challenge. The traditional single-indicator method is subjected to uncertainties in assessing IAQ due to different subjectivity on good or bad quality and scalar differences of data set. In this study, a multilevel integrated weighted average IAQ method including initial walking through assessment(IWA) and two-layers weighted average method are developed and applied to evaluate IAQ of the laboratory building at the University of Regina in Canada. Some important chemical parameters related to IAQ in terms of volatile organic compounds(VOCs), methanol(HCHO), carbon dioxide(CO2), and carbon monoxide(CO) are evaluated based on 5 months continuous monitoring data. The new integrated assessment result can not only indicates the risk of an individual parameter, but also able to quantify the overall IAQ risk on the sampling site. Finally, some recommendations based on the result are proposed to address sustainable IAQ practices in the sampling area.

基于综合评分法和风险商值法筛选黄河流域特征污染物及风险污染物

随着工业化进程的加快和城市化的发展,大量污染物排入黄河流域,并被频繁检出,威胁生态系统和人类健康。为获取潜在生态环境风险污染物,该研究通过调研2000年1月1日−2022年12月31日Web of Science(WoS)和中国知网(CNKI)数据库中黄河流域已报道的288篇污染物相关文献,使用多指标综合评分法筛选黄河流域的特征污染物,采用风险商值法获取水样和沉积物中的风险污染物。结果表明:①黄河流域共检出10类144种污染物,采用9类共13个筛选指标构建多指标综合评分法,对污染物各项指标进行评分,然后进行K-means聚类分析,按得分高低分为Ⅰ~Ⅵ级,选取得分较高的33种Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级高分值污染物作为黄河流域特征污染物,包括12种有机氯农药、10种多环芳烃、10种多氯联苯和1种邻苯二甲酸酯。②水样污染物浓度和沉积物含量前5种都是重金属、有机氯农药、邻苯二甲酸酯、多环芳烃以及药品和个人护理产品,而且二者顺序完全一致,且多数污染物的浓度之间存在显著相关性。③根据风险最大化原则,使用风险商值法(RQ)分别对水样和沉积物进行风险评估,将RQ≥0.1的污染物列为风险污染物,水样中共筛选出21种风险污染物,其中RQ≥1的高风险污染物有5种,包括硒、铅、苯并[a,h]蒽、苯并[a]蒽和邻苯二甲酸二丁酯。④沉积物中共筛选出19种风险污染物,其中有13种高风险污染物,包括8种多环芳烃(芘、蒽、荧蒽、苊、萘、芴、苯并[a]蒽、苯并[a,h]蒽)、4种重金属(汞、铅、硒、砷)和1种邻苯二甲酸酯(邻苯二甲酸二丁酯)。该研究对相关部门拟定黄河流域污染物监测方案和管控措施有重要参考意义。

考虑次生故障差异化影响下韧性主动提升的输电系统网架重构策略

近年来,我国能源电力加速转型,极端自然灾害频发,国际形势不稳定,使得常规安全风险与非常规安全风险交织,大停电风险有增加的趋势。稳健可靠的网架重构方案对防止恢复中再次发生系统崩溃具有重要意义,针对当前研究中未有效计及恢复中次生故障的不足,该文提出一种考虑次生故障差异化影响下系统韧性主动提升的网架重构策略。首先,讨论在网架重构恢复方案中考虑次生故障影响的必要性;然后,基于分割多目标风险分析方法提出一种系统韧性指标,旨在差异化处理次生故障并突出高风险故障对恢复过程的影响;进一步建立考虑韧性主动提升的网架重构全局优化模型,以增强系统对高风险故障的抵御能力。为提高模型的求解效率,提出一种基于窗口滚动机制的求解策略,可给出兼顾快速性与稳健性的网架重构方案。最后,采用新英格兰10机39节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统验证所提出方法的有效性。

基于蝉变模型的产学研合作风险机制分析和评估

为了准确评估产学研合作中的风险,基于蝉变模型构建了一套产学研合作中的风险预控机制。通过调查研究发现知识认可度不足、知识共享度不充分、知识成果转化率低和知识成果应用的不确定性是合作中风险形成的主要因素。将合作过程节点化,将合作联盟的主体孤立化,使用德尔菲法,构建产学研合作风险评价的指标体系。通过分析比较,选择BP神经网络作为合作风险评估法,利用MATLAB软件处理输入输出的风险指标,形成风险级别的评价模型,并用实例进行验证。

A Heuristic on Risk Management System in Goods Transportation Model Using Multi-Optimality by MODI Method

Transport risk management is one of the predominant issues to any industry for supplying their goods safely and in time to their beneficiaries. Damaging goods or delaying the shipping both make penalty to the company and also reduce the goodwill of the company. Every way of transportation routes has to be comfy which can make sure the supplies will attain without damaging goods and in time and additionally cost efficiently. In this paper, we find a few not unusual risks which might be concerned about all types of way of routes which include Highway, Waterway, Airway, Railway and so forth. Additionally, we proposed a technique to attain multiple optimal solutions by using Modified Distribution Method (MODI) of a transportation problem. Finally, we reduce the risks by minimizing the possible number of transportation routes using multi-optimality technique of the transportation problem.

气候变暖背景下云南省暴雨灾害风险区划研究

为进一步研究气候变暖背景下云南省暴雨灾害风险,利用25个气象站1990~2020年的逐日降水数据、社会经济、地理国情和历史灾情数据,基于ArcGIS的空间分析功能,运用暴雨灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法、层次分析法和百分位数法通过建立由暴雨灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力组成的综合暴雨灾害风险评估模型,实现了对云南省暴雨灾害风险的区划研究。结果表明,云南省中东部和南部暴雨灾害风险较高,其中昆明中部及南部、曲靖南部、红河南部、西双版纳南部等地区暴雨灾害风险最高;暴雨灾害中等风险区主要位于曲靖北部、文山西南部、普洱西部、保山北部、楚雄西北部等地,而西北部的迪庆和怒江两州的暴雨灾害风险较低。区划结果能在一定程度上反映出云南暴雨灾害的分布情况,具有较好的理论意义和实际指导价值。