Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

Natural Disaster Risk Monitoring for Immovable Cultural Relics Based on Digital Twin

Natural disaster risk monitoring is an important task for disaster prevention and reduction.In the case of immovable cultural relics,however,the feedback mechanism,risk factors,monitoring logic,and monitoring indicators of natural disaster risk monitoring are complex.How to achieve intelligent perception and monitoring of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics has always been a focus and a challenge for researchers.Based on the analysis of the concepts and issues related to the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics,this paper proposes a framework for natural disaster risk monitoring for immovable cultural relics based on the digital twin.This framework focuses on risk monitoring,including the physical entities of natural disaster risk for immovable cultural relics,monitoring indicators,and virtual entity construction.A platform for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics is proposed.Using the Puzhou Ancient City Site as a test bed,the proposed concept can be used for monitoring the natural disaster risk of immovable cultural relics at different scales.

Global Rainstorm Disaster Risk Monitoring Based on Satellite Remote Sensing

Methods of rainstorm disaster risk monitoring(RDRM)based on retrieved satellite rainfall data are studied.Due to significant regional differences,the global rainstorm disasters are not only affected by geography(such as topography and surface properties),but also by climate events.It is necessary to study rainstorm disaster-causing factors,hazard-formative environments,and hazard-affected incidents based on the climate distribution of precipitation and rainstorms worldwide.According to a global flood disaster dataset for the last 20 years,the top four flood disaster causes(accounting for 96.8%in total)related to rainstorms,from most to least influential,are heavy rain(accounting for 61.6%),brief torrential rain(16.7%),monsoonal rain(9.4%),and tropical cyclone/storm rain(9.1%).A dynamic global rainstorm disaster threshold is identified by using global climate data based on 3319 rainstorm-induced floods and rainfall data retrieved by satellites in the last 20 years.Taking the 7-day accumulated rainfall,3-and 12-h maximum rainfall,24-h rainfall,rainstorm threshold,and others as the main parameters,a rainstorm intensity index is constructed.Calculation and global mapping of hazard-formative environmental factor and hazard-affected body factor of rainstorm disasters are performed based on terrain and river data,population data,and economic data.Finally,a satellite remote sensing RDRM model is developed,incorporating the above three factors(rainstorm intensity index,hazard-formative environment factor,and hazard-affected body factor).The results show that the model can well capture the rainstorm disasters that happened in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China and in South Asia in 2020.

Thoughts of a travelling ecologist 14. Structure-function conflation in environmental risk assessment and monitoring

Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a section on aspects of environmental risk assessment.In various areas,including the evalution of the effects of pesticide applications,invasive organisms or genetically modified plants(Arpaia et al.,2014)preparing an environmental risk assessment is an obviously relevant exercise.

The Role of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions Institution:From the Perspective of the RiskSociety Theory

Earthquake disaster risk,as a typical social disaster risk,is one of the most important risks in modern Chinese society.This study gives definitions of the institution,describes the formation history,the connotations and development and analyzes its role in the control of major social risks caused by earthquakes.Finally,the paper presents recommendations for continuous improvement of this institution under the guidance of risk society theory,and for its application to the government reform and social governance.

湖南省2023年5—6月跨省调入饲养用牛羊追溯调查与布鲁氏菌病监测

为评估分析外省份调入湖南省饲养用牛羊引入布鲁氏菌病(以下简称“布病”)的风险,对“湖南省动物卫生监督信息平台”2023年5—6月跨省调入饲养用牛羊开展监测排查,并就其来源、去向及布病检测结果等进行调查统计。结果显示:全省共调入饲养用牛羊270批次12850头/只,涉及19个省/自治区/直辖市,其中13个省份为原布病防控一类地区;有164批次牛羊来源于布病免疫区,占60.74%;有96批次牛羊实际用于继续饲养,占35.56%;采集牛羊血清样品1396份,检出布病抗体阳性7份。结果表明,湖南省存在牛羊布病输入性风险,应加大调运监管力度,减少牛羊布病从高风险地区向低风险地区传播的风险。

Managing Public Health Risks Using Air Monitoring at a Former Manufactured Gas Plant Site

Monitoring emissions from a former Manufactured Gas Plant (MGP) site during remediation was used to manage risks associated with inhalation of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and contaminated particulates acting as an exposure conduit for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. This risk management case study presents a USEPA-approved air monitoring program implemented to manage public health risks during remediation at a former MGP site located in the southeast United States. Risk-based Acceptable Air Concentrations (AACs) were developed and a sampling regimen established to monitor potential emissions to maintain contaminant concentrations below the AACs. The exposure duration used was based on a twelve-month project duration and an exposure time of 24 hours per day;equations, toxicity values and sources were based on USEPA’s Regional Screening Levels. A total 535 twenty-four hour time weighted samples (269 VOC samples and 266 PAH samples) were collected over the project duration. Only minor levels of VOCs and PAHs were detected and no results were above the AACs. These timeweighted averages demonstrate that the real-time air monitoring and control measures implemented at the site effectively maintained concentrations below the AACs and were protective of public health.

城市生命线安全运行风险监测及响应研究

本文介绍了城市生命线建设背景,分析其运行风险。阐述了城市生命线安全运行风险监测的感知系统及应用平台的构建。研究了风险预警的研判分析及协同处置流程,实现了风险事件及时高效的响应处置。

基于美欧医疗器械上市后法规要求对我国建立医疗器械警戒制度的思考

本文旨在深入探讨美国和欧盟的医疗器械上市后监管制度,包括风险监管理念、监管法规体系、上市后临床研究、质量管理体系等,总结出开发风险监测工具、落实风险管理、采用合并报告模式、公开风险信息等经验,为我国医疗器械行业有序发展提供参考。我国可以借鉴美欧医疗器械上市后的监管实践,从提高监管机构能力、建设监测哨点和强化法规框架等方面,建立和试点医疗器械警戒制度。

工作欠载对煤矿监检人员风险感知能力的影响研究

为探究煤矿监检人员工作欠载对风险感知能力的影响机制,首先引入无聊倾向和心智游移作为中介变量,构建四者的链式中介模型;然后采用工作欠载、无聊倾向、心智游移以及风险感知能力4种量表制成结构化问卷,定量研究263名煤矿监检人员问卷样本,并通过Pearson相关性分析和中介效应检验验证样本数据。结果表明:工作欠载直接负向影响煤矿监检人员的风险感知能力;工作欠载还会通过无聊倾向、心智游移的独立中介效应,以及无聊倾向和心智游移的链式中介效应影响人员的风险感知能力。因此,及时发现并干预监检人员的工作欠载、无聊倾向和心智游移情形,能够有效提升其风险感知能力,预防事故的发生。

左氧氟沙星致心律失常的发生特点和危险因素分析

目的 了解大样本住院人群中左氧氟沙星致心律失常的发生特点、临床表现和相关危险因素。方法 借助“临床药品不良事件主动监测与智能评估警示系统-Ⅱ”(ADE-ASAS-Ⅱ),回顾性监测2019年使用左氧氟沙星的住院患者电子病历信息,获得发生心律失常患者的相关数据,采用倾向性评分匹配法选取未发生心律失常患者,通过单因素和多因素条件logistic回归分析左氧氟沙星导致心律失常的危险因素。结果12 879例使用左氧氟沙星人群的相关心律失常发生率为1.64%,其中65岁及以上人群发生率为3.22%;主要表现为期外收缩(0.84%)、心动过速(0.63%)、QT间期延长(0.44%),无尖端扭转型室性心动过速和室颤等严重心律失常。多因素条件logistic回归分析结果显示,用药疗程较长[OR=1.030,95%CI(1.009,1.050),P=0.004]和静脉给药[OR=2.392,95%CI(1.478,3.870),P <0.001]是左氧氟沙星致心律失常的独立危险因素。结论 左氧氟沙星引起的心律失常较为常见,分布类型多样,其中QT间期延长为偶见;临床应用时,应更多关注静脉用药的老年患者,并尽量避免长疗程用药。

黑龙江省农业微生物发展困境及振兴对策

农业微生物是农业生产、农产品加工、农业生物技术和农业生态环境保护等领域中应用的微生物的总称。它们在物质转化和能量循环中发挥着关键作用,并被认为是推动农业产业高质量发展的关键引擎。为实现农业微生物产业和科学研究的可持续发展,从推动农业微生物行业振兴的角度,阐述了农业微生物在应用领域、技术发展、资源保护和菌种保藏方面的研究现状,提出了农业微生物研究面临多方面的问题,包括知识产权风险、科研创新水平不高、监管监测体系不完善,以及缺乏农业微生物信息数据库等。从而提出了进一步加强黑龙江省农业微生物行业振兴的对策建议,即开展系统性科学攻关、加强生物安全实验室平台建设、促进形成产业集群、加强政策保障等。

基于PS-InSAR技术的晋城矿区地表形变监测及地质灾害风险预警

地表形变是一种严重的地质灾害现象,不仅严重影响灾害区居民的日常生活,而且会造成巨大的社会经济危害,尤其在采煤区。针对传统地表沉陷监测方法费时费力、无法获取地表沉降面状信息、难以进行地表沉陷灾害评估的不足,基于高分辨率SAR卫星影像,利用永久散射体合成孔径雷达干涉测量(PS-InSAR)技术对山西省晋城市晋城矿区2018年1月至2018年12月期间地表沉陷进行监测,分析获取了该地区地表连续形变情况,并利用该技术获取的海量PS点建立支持向量机(SVM)地质灾害风险评估预警模型,对晋城矿区周边居民点地质灾害风险进行了识别和预测。结果表明:晋城矿区10个煤矿及其周边区域存在较大的地表形变;晋城矿区平均LOS向年平均地表形变速率范围为-37~30.3 mm/a;PS-InSAR技术在晋城矿区地表形变监测中具有可行性,且可以实现矿区地质灾害风险综合识别和预警。

2019—2023年潍坊市市售食品中化学污染物及有害因素监测结果分析

目的:分析潍坊市食品中化学污染物及有害因素污染情况,明确污染物种类并及时发现食品安全隐患,为相关部门的监管提供依据。方法:采集2019—2023年潍坊市市售的14大类食品样品进行化学污染物及有害因素监测,并对检测结果进行统计学分析。结果:2 750份样品中存在超标样品112份,总超标率为4.07%,不同年份的样本超标率总体趋势无统计学意义(χ^(2)_(趋势)=1.291,P=0.256);14大类食品的超标率差异存在统计学意义,其中蛋及蛋制品的超标率最高(17.50%);从监测指标来看,兽药及禁用药物的超标情况最为严重,为4.29%;除生产加工环节外,各采样环节均存在超标样品检出的情况。结论:潍坊市市售食品中化学污染物及有害因素的风险总体较低,但仍存在超标情况,建议相关部门采取有效治理措施,确保居民食品安全。

2022年江苏省接尘劳动者职业健康现状及健康风险评估

目的通过对江苏省接尘劳动者的工作场所、职业健康现状进行主动监测和风险评估,为制(修)订政策和标准提供参考依据。方法2022年选取江苏省13个设区市264家开展工作场所职业病危害因素监测的中小微型接尘企业进行主动监测和免费健康检查,对职业人群的胸片和肺功能结果异常率进行描述分析。采用EPA吸入风险评估模型和梯度提升决策树(gradient boosting decision tree,GBDT)、人工神经网络(neural network)、朴素贝叶斯(naive bayes)等3种机器学习模型,对主动监测接尘作业情况进行风险评估。结果监测接尘劳动者5701人,胸片异常检出率18.31%;尘肺样改变2人,检出率0.04%,均为男性,工龄10~14年、宿迁市、接触水泥粉尘、非金属矿物制品业、小型企业。FVC%、FEV1.0%、FEV1.0/FVC%异常检出率分别为13.38%、3.68%、0.74%。不同地区、粉尘类型、行业类型、企业规模、性别、接尘工龄对象间胸片和肺功能异常率差异均有统计学意义(χ^(2)值4.51~823.34,P值均<0.05)。有效监测岗位4092个,合格率86.63%。接尘劳动者的胸片和肺功能合格情况均与岗位粉尘监测结果存在统计学关联(χ^(2)=27.66、17.39,P值均<0.05)。接触矽尘(游离SiO_(2)位50%~<80%)劳动者的非致癌健康风险较高(HQ>1)。3种机器学习模型中,肺功能和DR胸片的训练组和测试组判断均以GBDT模型准确率最高,分别为0.953、0.923和0.923、0.88;诊断F1值均≥0.865;该模型主要变量为用人单位所属地区(64.10%);DR胸片的主要变量为接害工龄(28.20%)。结论建立合适的风险评估模型,合理运用主动监测数据,做好高危粉尘作业者的职业健康防护和监护工作。

浙江省带土苗木传带红火蚁风险调查分析

带土苗木传带红火蚁Solenopsis invicta是导致红火蚁疫情进一步扩散蔓延的关键因素,摸清浙江省带土苗木传带红火蚁的风险,对其快速阻截与有效防控具有重要意义。2016年12月至2022年9月期间,本研究通过问询、目测踏查、诱饵诱集等监测方法,调查了浙江省11个地级市的39个区或县,包括251个苗圃地、26个花卉交易市场、576个档口的红火蚁发生情况。结果表明,龙血树Dracaena draco、玉兰Yulania denudata、山茶Camellia japonica、菜豆树Radermachera sinica、丝葵Washingtonia robusta、木犀Osmanthus fragrans、苏铁Cycas revoluta、樟Cinnamomum camphora、罗汉松Podocarpus macrophyllus、紫叶李Prunus cerasifera、加拿利海枣Phoenix canariensis、叶子花Bougainvillea spectabilis等是浙江省高风险传带红火蚁的带土植物种类。建议今后应该加大对该类带土苗木的检疫,快速发现并阻截红火蚁入侵。

基于挖掘算法的用户大数据周期智能推荐仿真

随着互联网技术的快速发展,用户数量日益增长,社交网络平台对周期性智能推荐的需求也日益增加。为了解决当前智能推荐算法准确率低、推荐速度慢等问题,提出了一种基于挖掘算法的用户大数据周期智能推荐算法。算法首先采用协同推荐算法对用户历史行为进行分析,并通过数据相似性衡量智能推荐的效果,使用Top-N算法优化推荐过程,达到周期智能推荐的目的;然后采用基于神经网络的挖掘算法对智能推荐算法进行优化,挖掘长时数据关系的同时保持短时数据之间的非线性;最后通过引入灰色均衡算法对相似度计算优化,从而缩短推荐时间。实验结果表明,所提算法在相似度计算准确度方面提升7%,推荐精确度提升6%,召回率提升8%,有效地提高了数据周期智能推荐的精读和效率,提高了个性化服务的质量。

眼前山铁矿冒落冲击风险评价

为研究眼前山铁矿露天转地下首采分段区域冒落冲击风险,应用应力监测、微震监测、数值分析方法获得了首采分段围岩的开采扰动响应特征,提出了眼前山铁矿冒落冲击风险评价方法。研究结果表明:随着与采场距离的减小,岩体的应力变化量、累计微震事件数逐渐上升,当前的回采活动引起岩体内应力集中区及破裂区的局部贯通;利用应力集中程度、应力集中区范围、应力集中区贯通程度、岩体断裂路径贯通程度4个指标综合量化眼前山铁矿地下首采分段区域冒落冲击风险为低等级。