In recent years, a lot of corporate defaults have had an impact on the capital market. How to prevent corporate default risks has become an important topic of concern for the academic community, enterprises and the go...In recent years, a lot of corporate defaults have had an impact on the capital market. How to prevent corporate default risks has become an important topic of concern for the academic community, enterprises and the government. We took China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2018 as a sample, and used the double difference method to analyze the impact of supply-side structural reforms on corporate default risks. We found that supply-side structural reforms have reduced the risk of corporate default, and the inhibitory effect has gradually increased. In the relationship between supply-side structural reforms and corporate default risks, corporate financing capabilities have played an intermediary role. Supply-side structural reforms can improve the company’s endogenous financing capabilities, thereby reducing the risk of corporate default. However, we also found that the mediating effect of a company’s exogenous financing capability is not significant. At the same time, the regression results show that the digital economy can play a regulatory role. It can not only actively regulate the relationship between supply-side structural reforms and corporate default risks, but also mediate the mediating effect of corporate endogenous financing capabilities. The results of this article provide some evidence for the synergy between supply-side structural reforms and the digital economy.展开更多
To solve the problem of setting threshold default risk criterion to select retailer eligible for trade credit granting, a novel method of solving simultaneous equations is proposed. This method is based on the bilevel...To solve the problem of setting threshold default risk criterion to select retailer eligible for trade credit granting, a novel method of solving simultaneous equations is proposed. This method is based on the bilevel programming modeling of trade credit decisions as an interaction between supplier and retailer. First, the bilevel programming is set up where the supplier decides on credit terms at the top level considering a retailer's default risk, and the retailer determines the order quantity at the lower level in response to the credit terms offered. By solving this bilevel programming, the relationship between the optimal terms and the corresponding default risk can be derived. Second, set the extreme scenario where the threshold default risk is approached as the point causing a zero marginal profit to the supplier. Another equation describing this particular scenario can also be derived. Thus, a system of two equations with two unknown variables can be obtained where the exact threshold default risk criterion can be found by solving them. A numerical example is presented as an illustration of the method proposed. It shows that the threshold criterion can be uniquely determined when the financial costs, inventory costs, and the marketing parameters of supplier and buyer are specified.展开更多
Through analysis, it is believed that major reasons for default risks in operation of small amount credit include low management level and vacancy of normative system, vacancy of risk sharing mechanism, rating distort...Through analysis, it is believed that major reasons for default risks in operation of small amount credit include low management level and vacancy of normative system, vacancy of risk sharing mechanism, rating distortion due to imperfect credit investigation system, and uncertainty of borrower's credit. On the basis of these, static and dynamic models are established to analyze the prevention mechanism for default risk in small amount credit. It is concluded that we must establish a restriction mechanism during operation of small amount credit as long as three values increase, namely, N (potential loss of bad credit record due to farmers' default), Q (probability of successful recovery by small amount credit institution), and S (cost of small amount credit institution punishing farmers after successful recovery). Finally, following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: perfect laws and regulations and credit reward and punishment mechanism for risk management of small amount credit; bring into play proper function of loan officer in small amount credit practice; widely promote rural "Group Credit Union" system.展开更多
This paper provides a methodology for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) with considering a counterparty default risk. Using a structural framework, we study the correlation of the reference entity and the counterpar...This paper provides a methodology for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) with considering a counterparty default risk. Using a structural framework, we study the correlation of the reference entity and the counterparty through the joint distribution of them. The default event discussed in our model is associated to whether the minimum value of the companies in stochastic processes has reached their thresholds (default barriers). The joint probability of minimums of correlated Brownian motions solves the backward Kolmogorov equation, which is a two dimensional partial differential equation. A closed pricing formula is obtained. Numerical methodology, parameter analysis and calculation examples are implemented.展开更多
As the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects the financial markets,a better understanding of the lending dynamics of a successful marketplace is necessary under the conditions of financial distress.Using the loan book d...As the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects the financial markets,a better understanding of the lending dynamics of a successful marketplace is necessary under the conditions of financial distress.Using the loan book database of Mintos(Latvia)and employing logit regression method,we provide evidence of the pandemic-induced exposure to default risk in the marketplace lending market.Our analysis indicates that the probability of default increases from 0.056 in the pre-pandemic period to 0.079 in the post-pandemic period.COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on default risk during May and June of 2020.We also find that the magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 risk is higher for borrowers with lower credit ratings and in countries with low levels of FinTech adoption.Our main findings are robust to sample selection bias allowing for a better understanding of and quantifying risks related to FinTech loans during the pandemic and periods of overall economic distress.展开更多
In the process of production and operation,the funds held by enterprises often do not meet the needs of the expanding production scale,so enterprises usually obtain the required funds by borrowing.However,the financin...In the process of production and operation,the funds held by enterprises often do not meet the needs of the expanding production scale,so enterprises usually obtain the required funds by borrowing.However,the financing mode of enterprises is not only limited to borrowing from banks or other financial institutions.With the rapid economic development and the continuous activity of the capital market,the bond market has gradually become an important channel for enterprise financing⑴,In order to improve the layout of the industrial chain,Guangyi Technology has carried out continuous mergers and acquisitions(M&A)since 2013.Due to its limited funds,Guangyi Technology acquired a large amount of funds required for M&A by means of equity pledge.However,the copyright cloud project invested in M&A in the early stage did not achieve the expected results,leading to a frequent breach of equity pledge,which evolved into debt defaults.Therefore,this article takes Guangyi Technology as the research subject and puts forward relevant avoidance suggestions through the evaluation of its debt default risk.展开更多
Why do households use different types of loans?Which factors cause borrowers to default?Using a comprehensive survey dataset from Chile,I estimate a partial information model of consumer debt access,lender choice,loan...Why do households use different types of loans?Which factors cause borrowers to default?Using a comprehensive survey dataset from Chile,I estimate a partial information model of consumer debt access,lender choice,loan amount and default.The model consists of a first-stage multinomial logit that explains the choice across the five loan types,plus the options of no access to debt due to credit constraints and a no wish for consumer debt.In the second and third stages,the model assumes a log-linear regression of the debt amount and a logit regression of the default behavior,accounting for the loan type selection probability.Identification is obtained using factors measured at different time periods for the default and the loan type choices.I find that households choose different lenders based on income,education and labor risks.Higher income and education decrease the probability of credit constraints,while increasing bank lending and debt amounts.Unemployment risk and household size increase the chances of all the loan types;however,unemployment decreases the debt amount.Age and wage volatility reduce the probability of all loans.Default decreases with income,education and age,whereas it increases with indebtedness,unemployment,household size,health shocks,and paying previous loans.Counterfactual exercises demonstrate that pension reform,higher requirements for borrowers’capacities,and financial literacy programs could substantially reduce default risk.Financial literacy could greatly reduce arrears,households with credit constraints,the number of debtors and the aggregate debt amounts,especially for non-bank lending.Highlights Chilean borrowers present heterogeneous adverse selection across lender types.No Debt Access decreases with income,age,education,but it increases with risk.Default is associated with income,unemployment,indebtedness and demographics.Paying past loans and health needs are associated with indebtedness and default.Financial literacy programs may be a powerful policy to improve the debt market.展开更多
文摘In recent years, a lot of corporate defaults have had an impact on the capital market. How to prevent corporate default risks has become an important topic of concern for the academic community, enterprises and the government. We took China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2018 as a sample, and used the double difference method to analyze the impact of supply-side structural reforms on corporate default risks. We found that supply-side structural reforms have reduced the risk of corporate default, and the inhibitory effect has gradually increased. In the relationship between supply-side structural reforms and corporate default risks, corporate financing capabilities have played an intermediary role. Supply-side structural reforms can improve the company’s endogenous financing capabilities, thereby reducing the risk of corporate default. However, we also found that the mediating effect of a company’s exogenous financing capability is not significant. At the same time, the regression results show that the digital economy can play a regulatory role. It can not only actively regulate the relationship between supply-side structural reforms and corporate default risks, but also mediate the mediating effect of corporate endogenous financing capabilities. The results of this article provide some evidence for the synergy between supply-side structural reforms and the digital economy.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70502005)
文摘To solve the problem of setting threshold default risk criterion to select retailer eligible for trade credit granting, a novel method of solving simultaneous equations is proposed. This method is based on the bilevel programming modeling of trade credit decisions as an interaction between supplier and retailer. First, the bilevel programming is set up where the supplier decides on credit terms at the top level considering a retailer's default risk, and the retailer determines the order quantity at the lower level in response to the credit terms offered. By solving this bilevel programming, the relationship between the optimal terms and the corresponding default risk can be derived. Second, set the extreme scenario where the threshold default risk is approached as the point causing a zero marginal profit to the supplier. Another equation describing this particular scenario can also be derived. Thus, a system of two equations with two unknown variables can be obtained where the exact threshold default risk criterion can be found by solving them. A numerical example is presented as an illustration of the method proposed. It shows that the threshold criterion can be uniquely determined when the financial costs, inventory costs, and the marketing parameters of supplier and buyer are specified.
基金Supported by the Project for Decision-making Bidding of Henan Provincial Government (2011B546)
文摘Through analysis, it is believed that major reasons for default risks in operation of small amount credit include low management level and vacancy of normative system, vacancy of risk sharing mechanism, rating distortion due to imperfect credit investigation system, and uncertainty of borrower's credit. On the basis of these, static and dynamic models are established to analyze the prevention mechanism for default risk in small amount credit. It is concluded that we must establish a restriction mechanism during operation of small amount credit as long as three values increase, namely, N (potential loss of bad credit record due to farmers' default), Q (probability of successful recovery by small amount credit institution), and S (cost of small amount credit institution punishing farmers after successful recovery). Finally, following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: perfect laws and regulations and credit reward and punishment mechanism for risk management of small amount credit; bring into play proper function of loan officer in small amount credit practice; widely promote rural "Group Credit Union" system.
文摘This paper provides a methodology for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) with considering a counterparty default risk. Using a structural framework, we study the correlation of the reference entity and the counterparty through the joint distribution of them. The default event discussed in our model is associated to whether the minimum value of the companies in stochastic processes has reached their thresholds (default barriers). The joint probability of minimums of correlated Brownian motions solves the backward Kolmogorov equation, which is a two dimensional partial differential equation. A closed pricing formula is obtained. Numerical methodology, parameter analysis and calculation examples are implemented.
文摘As the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects the financial markets,a better understanding of the lending dynamics of a successful marketplace is necessary under the conditions of financial distress.Using the loan book database of Mintos(Latvia)and employing logit regression method,we provide evidence of the pandemic-induced exposure to default risk in the marketplace lending market.Our analysis indicates that the probability of default increases from 0.056 in the pre-pandemic period to 0.079 in the post-pandemic period.COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on default risk during May and June of 2020.We also find that the magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 risk is higher for borrowers with lower credit ratings and in countries with low levels of FinTech adoption.Our main findings are robust to sample selection bias allowing for a better understanding of and quantifying risks related to FinTech loans during the pandemic and periods of overall economic distress.
文摘In the process of production and operation,the funds held by enterprises often do not meet the needs of the expanding production scale,so enterprises usually obtain the required funds by borrowing.However,the financing mode of enterprises is not only limited to borrowing from banks or other financial institutions.With the rapid economic development and the continuous activity of the capital market,the bond market has gradually become an important channel for enterprise financing⑴,In order to improve the layout of the industrial chain,Guangyi Technology has carried out continuous mergers and acquisitions(M&A)since 2013.Due to its limited funds,Guangyi Technology acquired a large amount of funds required for M&A by means of equity pledge.However,the copyright cloud project invested in M&A in the early stage did not achieve the expected results,leading to a frequent breach of equity pledge,which evolved into debt defaults.Therefore,this article takes Guangyi Technology as the research subject and puts forward relevant avoidance suggestions through the evaluation of its debt default risk.
文摘Why do households use different types of loans?Which factors cause borrowers to default?Using a comprehensive survey dataset from Chile,I estimate a partial information model of consumer debt access,lender choice,loan amount and default.The model consists of a first-stage multinomial logit that explains the choice across the five loan types,plus the options of no access to debt due to credit constraints and a no wish for consumer debt.In the second and third stages,the model assumes a log-linear regression of the debt amount and a logit regression of the default behavior,accounting for the loan type selection probability.Identification is obtained using factors measured at different time periods for the default and the loan type choices.I find that households choose different lenders based on income,education and labor risks.Higher income and education decrease the probability of credit constraints,while increasing bank lending and debt amounts.Unemployment risk and household size increase the chances of all the loan types;however,unemployment decreases the debt amount.Age and wage volatility reduce the probability of all loans.Default decreases with income,education and age,whereas it increases with indebtedness,unemployment,household size,health shocks,and paying previous loans.Counterfactual exercises demonstrate that pension reform,higher requirements for borrowers’capacities,and financial literacy programs could substantially reduce default risk.Financial literacy could greatly reduce arrears,households with credit constraints,the number of debtors and the aggregate debt amounts,especially for non-bank lending.Highlights Chilean borrowers present heterogeneous adverse selection across lender types.No Debt Access decreases with income,age,education,but it increases with risk.Default is associated with income,unemployment,indebtedness and demographics.Paying past loans and health needs are associated with indebtedness and default.Financial literacy programs may be a powerful policy to improve the debt market.