Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Identification of life habits factors as risk for gastritis and colitis occurrence in a mestizo population of Chabeklumil, Chiapas, México

Aim: Gastric diseases are a recent trend in morbidity in México. We aimed to identify most frequent life habits factors as risk for gastritis and colitis occurrence, in a Mexican mestizo population in Chabeklumil, Chiapas. Population: This study was observational, descriptive, transversal and prospective;346 questionnaires were applied to individuals of both genders from 11 years of age, with low income and socio-economic status, after they signed the informed consent. An individual file was created by the nurses in Chabeklumil. The predominant gender in the population was female (56.1%), with a distribution of 166 among adulthood (19 - 59 years of age);among males (43.9%), 133 included adults. Results: We identified the following environmental risk factors to develop gastritis and colitis: long periods of daily fasting > consumption of irritant food and drink > stress, in females;in contrast, males reported alcohol and tobacco consumption > irritant food and drink > long periods of daily fasting > stress. We found statistical differences (P < 0.05) in risk factors between females and males, in drugs and alcohol consumption, fasting, and stress, but not in consumption of irritant foods, nor in colitis and gastritis prevalence. Conclusions: Females are most affected by life habits risk factors for gastritis/colitis, which occurs mainly due to lifestyle and “macho” culture, since women are precluded of a better living standard, they work hard in the field, and start early in the day without consuming a meal, which they eat late in the day once arriving home. People in Chabeklumil eat/drink a lot of irritant food like hot pepper and coffee, which damage the gastrointestinal system leading to gastritis and colitis. Furthermore, men started to consume drugs at early ages, a condition also involved in developing gastritis.

Research on the seismotectonics of the Jan－uary 17，1995 Hanshin M7．2 earthquake

Based on the geological tectonics, aftershock activity, earthquake surface rupture and peak ground motion, the geometric and dynamic characteristics of seismogenic tectonics about the 1995 Hanshin earthquake are analysed. Nojima fault and Rokko fault have the same trending direction, but opposite dips. Their rising and falling plates are in symmetrically diagonal distribution. The two faults can be defined as thrust strike slip faults and constitute a pivotal strike slip fault. The earthquake just occurred at the pivot, which is the seismotectonics for the earthquake to develop and occur. The pivotal movement along a strike slip fault often leads to the occurrence of large earthquakes, whose dynamic process can be demonstrated by the stress analysis on the torsion of a beam with rectangle section. The displacement of earthquake surface rupture, aftershock density and peak acceleration change in a certain range of epicentral distance just similar as the shear stress changes from the center to the sides in the rectangle section. The distribution characteristics of the heaviest damage areas are also discussed in the article from the aspects of special geological tectonics and seismotectonic condition. The result obtained from the article can be applied not only to realizing the potencial earthquake sources in middle long time, but also to build reasonably the prediction model about earthquake hazard.

Resolving co- and early post-seismic slip variations of the 2021 MW 7.4 Madoi earthquake in east Bayan Har block with a block-wide distributed deformation mode from satellite synthetic aperture radar data

On 21 May 2021(UTC),an MW 7.4 earthquake jolted the east Bayan Har block in the Tibetan Plateau.The earthquake received widespread attention as it is the largest event in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,and especially in proximity to the seismic gaps on the east Kunlun fault.Here we use satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar data and subpixel offset observations along the range directions to characterize the coseismic deformation of the earthquake.Range offset displacements depict clear surface ruptures with a total length of~170 km involving two possible activated fault segments in the earthquake.Coseismic modeling results indicate that the earthquake was dominated by left-lateral strike-slip motions of up to 7 m within the top 12 km of the crust.The well-resolved slip variations are characterized by five major slip patches along strike and 64%of shallow slip deficit,suggesting a young seismogenic structure.Spatial-temporal changes of the postseismic deformation are mapped from early 6-day and 24-day InSAR observations,and are well explained by time-dependent afterslip models.Analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)velocity profiles and strain rates suggests that the eastward extrusion of plateau is diffusely distributed across the east Bayan Har block,but exhibits significant lateral heterogeneities,as evidenced by magnetotelluric observations.The block-wide distributed deformation of the east Bayan Har block along with the significant co-and post-seismic stress loadings from the Madoi earthquake imply high seismic risks along regional faults,especially the Tuosuo Lake and Maqên-Maqu segments of the Kunlun fault that are known as seismic gaps.

Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault

Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segments behave differently in their Holocene slip rates and paleo-earthquake activities, with obviously higher paleo-seismic activity on the Huashixia segment than on Maqin segment. As many as four strong Holocene earthquakes are identified on the Huashixia segment from trenching and geomorphic studies. The recurrent interval for the latest three earthquakes are at about 500 a and 640 a, respectively. On the Maqin segment, at least three paleo-earthquake events can be defined from trenching, with a recurrent interval for the latest two events at about 1000 a. M = 7.5 earthquakes on Huashixia segment recur at every 411 a to 608 a with a characteristic slip at 5.75±0.57 m. Although the Maqin segment is less active, its accumulated strain energy during the long time period since last earthquake occurred (about 1070 a BP) deserves enough notice on its future earthquake probabilities.

Prophylactic fixation of the unaffected contralateral side in children with slipped capital femoral epiphysis seems favorable:A systematic review

BACKGROUND Slipped capital femoral epiphysis(SCFE)occurs in adolescents and has an incidence of around 10 per 100000 children.Children presenting with a unilateral SCFE are 2335 times more likely to develop a contralateral SCFE than the general population.Prognostic factors that have been suggested to increase the risk of contralateral slip include a younger patient,an underlying endocrine disorder,growth hormone use and a higher radiographic posterior sloping angle.However,there is still much debate on the advantages and disadvantages of prophylactic fixation of the unaffected side in an otherwise healthy patient.AIM To investigate the risk rate of contralateral SCFE and assess the(dis)advantages of prophylactic fixation of the contralateral hip.METHODS A systematic literature search was performed in the Embase,Medline,Web of Science Core Collection and Cochrane databases.Search terms included‘slipped capital femoral epiphysis,’‘fixation,’‘contralateral,’and derivatives.The eligibility of the acquired articles was independently assessed by the authors and additional relevant articles were included through cross-referencing.Publications were considered eligible for inclusion if they presented data about otherwise healthy children with primarily unilateral SCFE and the outcomes of prophylactically pinning their unaffected side,or about the rates of contralateral slips and complications thereof.The study quality of the included articles was assessed independently by the authors by means of the methodological index for non-randomized studies criteria.RESULTS Of 293 identified unique publications,we included 26 studies with a total of 12897 patients.1762 patients(14%)developed a subsequent symptomatic contralateral slip.In addition,38%of patients developed a subsequent slip on the contralateral side without experiencing clinical symptoms.The most outspoken advantage of prophylactic fixation of the contralateral hip in the literature is prevention of an(asymptomatic)slip,thus reducing the increased risk of avascular necrosis(AVN),cam morphology and osteoarthritis.Disadvantages include an increased risk of infection,AVN,peri-implant fractures,loss of fixation as well as migration of hardware and morphologic changes as a consequence of growth guidance.These risks,however,appeared to only occur incidentally and were usually mild compared to the risks involved with an actual SCFE.CONCLUSION The advantages of prophylactic pinning of the unaffected side in otherwise healthy patients with unilateral SCFE seem to outweigh the disadvantages.The final decision for treatment remains to be patient-tailored.

Assumptions Regarding the Development of Selected Europe 2020 Objectives in Terms of Public Finances in the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic

This paper uses regression analysis and econometric modeling foundations to track public expenditures in the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic （Fejesova, 2011） and their influences on the development of the following two targets of the Europe 2020 Strategy： to increase the employment of the selected population groups to a predetermined percentage level and to reduce the number of people at risk of poverty. In addition to the selection of monitored indicators, we included other indicators from the social sphere, which are funded by mandatory national public expenditure budgets and which are expected to have a positive development in terms of improving the demographic structure of the country--the unemployment rate and the number of live births.

基于AHP-TOPSIS的返贫风险评估预警方法

采用AHP-TOPSIS分析法对不同地区的返贫风险等级进行实证分析,结果表明:在产业发展风险、疾病风险、政策风险、道德风险和协同不足风险中,疾病风险尤其是恶性疾病是造成返贫最主要的因素。基于返贫因素权重计算的贴近度指标能有效识別和比较不同地区的返贫风险,且预测准确率高。

恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究

有效预防返贫风险是后脱贫时代脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略有效衔接的关键.该研究将风险的概率纳入返贫风险评估体系,从发生概率和破坏程度两方面综合评估其返贫风险,系统反映返贫风险的可能性和破坏性,进而探究其影响因素.研究发现:1)农户各维度的返贫风险水平从高到低依次为个体风险、家庭风险、社会风险和自然风险,农户受家庭风险和个体风险影响较大,存在明显的内生性、个体化特征.2)依据风险的发生概率和破坏程度,返贫风险可分为“高概率-高破坏”型、“高概率-低破坏”型和“低概率-低破坏”型3种类型,其中,“高概率-高破坏”型风险包括非农就业能力和教育负担,返贫风险指数最高,对农户返贫的威胁最大.3)抚养人数和户主的文化程度等家庭特征是影响返贫风险的主要因素,乡村旅游扶贫开发模式不同导致农户的返贫风险存在显著差异.在返贫防治实践中,应因户施策,重点防治内生性返贫,同时要根据返贫风险发生概率及破坏程度的差异,制定合理的返贫风险预警机制及防治措施.

新疆及邻区现今GNSS变形特征与地震关系研究

基于GNSS观测数据,采用球面最小二乘配置方法计算了新疆及邻区的应变率张量特征,在统计分析研究区域应变率分布以及1900—2022年M≥6.0地震分布之间的关系的基础上,研究了GNSS应变率特征对强震地点的指示意义。通过构建三维弹性块体模型反演得到的区内主要断裂的运动变形特征,结合震源机制解结果,对比分析了断裂运动变形特征与不同区域强震类型之间的关系。结果表明:天山西段—帕米尔地区、阿尔金断裂带邻近地区呈现第二应变率高值特征,其中帕米尔构造结附近高值特性最明显;最大剪应变率方向在南天山西段—帕米尔地区主要为NE-NEE向,反映了该区以倾滑变形为主的特征。研究区域的M≥6.0地震主要分布在应变率高值区及其边缘,特别是帕米尔构造结东部地区的强震集中非常明显。区内断裂运动性质具有明显的分类特征,除整体以挤压运动为主外,NE走向断裂带以左旋走滑运动为主,NW走向的断裂以右旋走滑运动为主。NE走向的柯坪、迈丹和那拉提断裂带与NW走向的克孜勒陶、塔拉斯—费尔干纳断裂带汇集的南天山西段和帕米尔西构造结东部地区强震密集分布,强震的震源机制类型与断层运动方式较为一致。

平台场域内中等收入人群“滑落”风险形成与治理机制——基于美团外卖骑手的案例研究

在中等收入人群绝对规模增加的过程中,也存在着“滑落”现象,以往对于中等收入人群的研究多从收入分配制度、人力资本等角度展开。通过美团案例的研究发现,中等收入人群“滑落”的根源为生态成员权责范围的模糊,“稳中”还需依赖平台治理。处于市场优势地位的美团,在供求失衡的市场机制和算法技术的支持下,通过灵活用工模式规避雇佣责任,但这种劳资关系并非稳定的和可持续的。外卖骑手可以通过自我赋能、维护自身主体性、多栖战略等途径抵御“滑落”,同时,制度缺口填补、平台与政府协同治理、平台企业垄断规制和多元主体赋权的方式也可以阻断外卖骑手的“滑落”通道。外卖骑手“滑落”是研究橄榄型社会结构构建的经典案例,对我国完善平台治理结构和发展共同富裕具有积极意义。

中国城市家庭多维相对贫困特征及返贫风险实证研究——基于随机森林和Logistic回归模型分析

脱贫攻坚任务完成后,城市相对贫困成为减贫的主要挑战。本研究基于随机森林和Logistic回归模型,依据2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,构建城市家庭多维相对贫困指标体系,探究中国城市家庭多维相对贫困特征及返贫风险。随机森林模型分析显示,中国城市家庭多维相对贫困系数存在显著差异,其中家庭收入和家庭资产维度对中国城市家庭多维相对贫困影响较大,而生活水平维度的影响相对较小。Logistic回归结果显示,处于低返贫风险的家庭占比最多,中度风险家庭最少,高风险家庭居中。基于以上分析,本文提出以下建议:加强贫困监测,制定合理发展规划;推动就业创业,增强脱贫内生动力;强化企业支持,构建贫困家庭互助网络;激发扶贫活力,推动可持续发展。

西部民族地区脱贫人口生计韧性的测度与评价

基于西部民族地区脱贫人口生计发展的现实状况,以生计资本韧性、生计环境韧性、生计策略韧性三大要素构建西部民族地区脱贫人口生计韧性评价体系,运用BP神经网络和因子分析相结合的方法,对凉山彝族自治州17个县(市)中1786户稳定脱贫人口和171户脱贫监测人口的生计韧性水平进行综合测度并进行对比性分析。研究发现:样本地区脱贫人口生计韧性整体较为适中,但区域之间、区域内部不同类型脱贫人口的生计韧性强度存在差异;生计资本韧性是影响样本区域脱贫人口整体生计韧性最重要的影响因素,其中资金资本韧性较低是两类脱贫人口均要面临的主要脆弱性风险。相对于稳定脱贫人口而言,监测脱贫人口的物质资本韧性较差,但自然资本韧性较强;相较于监测脱贫人口而言,样本区域稳定脱贫人口的市场环境韧性较低,但政策环境韧性较高;样本区域稳定脱贫人口的生计策略韧性整体高于受监测脱贫人口,前者生产经营韧性较高,后者迁移发展韧性较高。

基于深度森林算法的返贫风险预警及防范

为巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接,打好实施乡村振兴战略的基础,文章选取2020年中国乡村振兴综合调查(CRRS)数据为样本,以可持续生计理论为指导构建返贫风险评价指标体系,使用集成学习的多种算法构建返贫风险预警模型。结果表明:各模型经过参数优化后,深度森林算法识别效果最佳,对返贫风险识别整体准确率为0.98,对构建动态返贫风险预警系统有一定的技术帮助;各地区不同风险等级生计资本存在显著差异性,应因地制宜出台返贫帮扶政策,并为精准帮扶防范返贫提出相应建议。

西藏农牧民致贫返贫风险研判与稳定脱贫长效机制构建

研究致贫返贫风险和构建稳定脱贫长效机制对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果和全面推进乡村振兴具有非常重要的现实意义。作为原深度贫困地区之一的西藏,返贫现象历来时有发生,脱贫考核问题零星偶发,以及脱贫不稳户和边缘易致贫户的存在等多种原因可能发生致贫返贫风险,其主要致贫返贫风险表现为环境风险、生活风险、生产风险、就业风险和金融风险。从长远考虑,构建稳定脱贫长效机制就是建立一套融致贫返贫预警机制、脱贫巩固活血机制、持续发展造血机制于一体的反贫制度体系;同时构建组织保障、人才保障、资金保障、制度保障,为长效机制的顺利实施提供有力保障。

基于县域乡村振兴视角的甘青川藏族聚居县返贫风险研究

文章旨在对甘青川藏族聚居县的返贫风险进行研究。样本数据和资料源于对甘青川藏族聚居县精准扶贫及脱贫工作的田野调查。通过调研甘青川三省藏族聚居县的脱贫攻坚工作,从中总结出一些具有地方特色的精准扶贫模式,如迭部县“特色产业模式”、泽库县“拉格日模式”、若尔盖县“跨地域协作模式”,发现在实践层面,甘青川藏族聚居县存在扶贫项目的立项随意性的问题、部分脱贫技能培训脱离实际的问题、易地搬迁扶贫模式带来的问题。文章通过返贫风险分析,针对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴有效衔接的实现路径提出相关意见建议。

低收入人口疾病返贫风险与医疗保障现状研究--基于Z县的实证分析

本文通过对西南地区Z县的实证分析,揭示了低收入人口的实际医疗费用支出及保障效果。研究发现,尽管三重保障在减轻低收入患者医疗负担方面发挥了积极作用,但是大病患者仍面临较高返贫风险。Z县医疗支出数据表明,低收入大病患者的名义报销比例处于较高水平,但实际报销比例相对较低,自付费用较高;另外,大病保险报销具有“雨露均沾”倾向,未能集中将有限资源向重特大病患者倾斜,难以减轻患者大额医疗费用支出负担。建议扩大城乡居民基本医保报销目录,降低患者政策报销范围外的支出压力;完善大病保险机制,增强精准保障能力,优化报销结构;构建多元保障体系,进一步降低大病患者的返贫风险。通过上述措施的优化,或可在共同富裕背景下有效提升低收入人口的医疗保障水平,促进健康公平。

乡村集体土地制度对返贫风险治理的影响及优化路径

乡村集体土地制度是一个承载着历史印记的制度安排,其变迁对中国农村经济社会发展产生了深远的影响。在乡村振兴战略背景下,乡村集体土地制度对治理返贫风险尤为关键。当前,乡村集体土地使用存在权属不清、流转不畅、利用效率低下等问题,制约了乡村经济的进一步发展。文章基于这些问题分析了乡村集体土地制度对返贫风险治理的多维效应,包括收入效应、就业效应、社会效应和环境效应,并针对乡村集体土地使用的问题和改革的局限性,从完善集体土地所有权制度、使用权制度、经营权制度,创新土地利用方式,强化土地空间规划布局等方面提出了一系列治理路径设计,以提高土地使用效率,保障农民权益,有效降低返贫风险,激活乡村内生动力,增强乡村发展韧性。

乡村振兴背景下脱贫农户返贫风险治理

在可行能力理论和可持续生计框架的基础上,构建了“返贫风险识别-返贫风险应对-可行能力发展”的分析框架。在此框架的指导下,基于云南省昭通市M跨县搬迁安置区的实地调研,分析脱贫农户返贫风险治理中存在的问题,并提出优化路径。研究发现,脱贫农户面临多重返贫风险,生计转型困难;安置区产业与就业不匹配,脱贫农户缺乏就近就业机会;基层网格员数据采集困难,动态监测评估指标滞后;脱贫农户内生动力不足,可行能力发展困难。针对这些问题,应建立“以建立防止返贫动态监测机制为基础,以促进脱贫农户增收为根本要求,以推动县域产业发展为主攻方向,以增强脱贫农户可行能力、实现全面发展为核心”的返贫风险治理体系,促进巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴的有效衔接。

四川涉藏地区返贫风险治理与乡村振兴衔接机制探讨

四川涉藏地区是原典型的深度贫困区,存在诸多诱发返贫风险的因素。返贫风险治理是乡村振兴建设的一个重要任务,二者衔接推进具有重要的现实意义。返贫风险治理同乡村振兴衔接在理论逻辑上,目标、主体、内容和制度上有机契合;在现实价值上,对巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,促进乡村振兴等具有协同推进作用。通过调查研究认为,四川涉藏地区当前存在产业性、能动性、文化性、生态性和组织性等返贫风险。鉴于此,应创建产业升级机制、完善能力提升机制、优化文化繁荣机制、健全生态保护机制、强化组织治理机制,实现返贫风险治理与产业、人才、文化、生态和组织振兴等的衔接,有效巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,促进乡村振兴建设。