Stroke Risk Assessment Decision-Making Using a Machine Learning Model:Logistic-AdaBoost

Stroke is a chronic cerebrovascular disease that carries a high risk.Stroke risk assessment is of great significance in preventing,reversing and reducing the spread and the health hazards caused by stroke.Aiming to objectively predict and identify strokes,this paper proposes a new stroke risk assessment decision-making model named Logistic-AdaBoost(Logistic-AB)based on machine learning.First,the categorical boosting(CatBoost)method is used to perform feature selection for all features of stroke,and 8 main features are selected to form a new index evaluation system to predict the risk of stroke.Second,the borderline synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)algorithm is applied to transform the unbalanced stroke dataset into a balanced dataset.Finally,the stroke risk assessment decision-makingmodel Logistic-AB is constructed,and the overall prediction performance of this new model is evaluated by comparing it with ten other similar models.The comparison results show that the new model proposed in this paper performs better than the two single algorithms(logistic regression and AdaBoost)on the four indicators of recall,precision,F1 score,and accuracy,and the overall performance of the proposed model is better than that of common machine learning algorithms.The Logistic-AB model presented in this paper can more accurately predict patients’stroke risk.

Risk preferences and the low-carbon agricultural technology adoption:Evidence from rice production in China

Climate change which is mainly caused by carbon emissions is a global problem affecting the economic development and well-being of human society.Low-carbon agriculture is of particular significance in slowing down global warming and reaching the goal of“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”.Therefore,taking straw incorporation as an example,this paper aims to investigate the impact of risk preferences on farmers’low-carbon agricultural technology(LCAT)adoption.Based on a two-phase micro-survey data of 1038 rice farmers in Jiangsu,Jiangxi,and Hunan provinces,this paper uses experimental economics methods to measure farmers’risk aversion and loss aversion to obtain the real risk preferences information of the farmers.We also explore the data to examine the actual LCAT adoption behavior of farmers.The results revealed that both risk aversion and loss aversion significantly inhibit farmers’LCAT adoption:more risk-averse or more loss-averse farmers are less likely to adopt LCAT.It is further found that crop insurance,farm scale and governmental regulations can alleviate the negative impact of risk aversion and loss aversion on farmers’LCAT adoption.Therefore,we propose that local governments need to promote low-carbon agricultural development by propagating the benefits of LCAT,extending crop insurance,promoting appropriate scale operations,and strengthening governmental regulations to promote farmers’LCAT adoption.

Dynamic programming methodology for multi-criteria group decision-making under ordinal preferences

A method of minimizing rankings inconsistency is proposed for a decision-making problem with rankings of alternatives given by multiple decision makers according to multiple criteria. For each criteria, at first, the total inconsistency between the rankings of all alternatives for the group and the ones for every decision maker is defined after the decision maker weights in respect to the criteria are considered. Similarly, the total inconsistency between their final rankings for the group and the ones under every criteria is determined after the criteria weights are taken into account. Then two nonlinear integer programming models minimizing respectively the two total inconsistencies above are developed and then transformed to two dynamic programming models to obtain separately the rankings of all alternatives for the group with respect to each criteria and their final rankings. A supplier selection case illustrated the proposed method, and some discussions on the results verified its effectiveness. This work develops a new measurement of ordinal preferences’ inconsistency in multi-criteria group decision-making （MCGDM） and extends the cook-seiford social selection function to MCGDM considering weights of criteria and decision makers and can obtain unique ranking result.

Group Decision-Making Method with Incomplete Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations Based on a Generalized Multiplicative Consistent Concept

Based on the analyses of existing preference group decision-making(PGDM)methods with intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations(IFPRs),we present a new PGDM framework with incomplete IFPRs.A generalized multiplicative consistent for IFPRs is defined,and a mathematical programming model is constructed to supplement the missing values in incomplete IFPRs.Moreover,in this study,another mathematical programming model is constructed to improve the consistency level of unacceptably multiplicative consistent IFPRs.For group decisionmaking(GDM)with incomplete IFPRs,three reliable sources influencing the weights of experts are identified.Subsequently,a method for determining the weights of experts is developed by simultaneously considering three reliable sources.Furthermore,a targeted consensus process(CPR)is developed in this study with reference to the actual situation of the consensus level of each IFPR.Meanwhile,in response to the proposed multiplicative consistency definition,a novel method for determining the optimal priority weights of alternatives is redefined.Lastly,based on the above theory,a novel GDM method with incomplete IFPRs is developed,and the comparative and sensitivity analysis results demonstrate the utility and superiority of this work.

Hesitant Fuzzy-Sets Based Decision-Making Model for Security Risk Assessment

Security is an important component in the process of developing healthcare web applications.We need to ensure security maintenance;therefore the analysis of healthcare web application’s security risk is of utmost importance.Properties must be considered to minimise the security risk.Additionally,security risk management activities are revised,prepared,implemented,tracked,and regularly set up efficiently to design the security of healthcare web applications.Managing the security risk of a healthcare web application must be considered as the key component.Security is,in specific,seen as an add-on during the development process of healthcare web applications,but not as the key problem.Researchers must ensure that security is taken into account right from the earlier developmental stages of the healthcare web application.In this row,the authors of this study have used the hesitant fuzzy-based AHP-TOPSIS technique to estimate the risks of various healthcare web applications for improving security-durability.This approach would help to design and incorporate security features in healthcare web applications that would be able to battle threats on their own,and not depend solely on the external security of healthcare web applications.Furthermore,in terms of healthcare web application’s security-durability,the security risk variable is measured,and vice versa.Hence,the findings of our study will also be useful in improving the durability of several web applications in healthcare.

Farmers’risk preference and fertilizer use

This study examines the role of farmers’risk attitudes toward fertilizer use in cotton production in China.Contradicting previous studies,this paper theoretically shows that the relationship between farmers’risk aversion and fertilizer use is not always monotonic.Field survey data were collected to test this relationship using the Cobb–Douglas production function.Results suggest that when the elasticity of fertilizer use and the probability of achieving the desired effects from fertilizer use are high,risk-averse farmers apply more fertilizer than risk-taking farmers.Conversely,when the elasticity of fertilizer use and the probability of achieving the desired effects are low,risk-taking farmers apply more fertilizer than risk-neutral or risk-averse farmers.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Method for Risky Multiobjective Group Decision-Making and Its Application

The multiobjective group decision-making problem under risk is common in reality. This paper focuses on the study about risky multiobjective group decision-making problem where the index value is not certain. We give indexes classifying method and index normalizing formula of this type problem. By building objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from every alternative to the relatively best and worst alternative, the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, and by building another objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative to the group optimal alternative and the group inferior alternative, the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, which are both based on probability theory and fuzzy theory. Aftermost a model is established which collects group preferences. This method provides a new idea and approach for solving multiobjective decision-making problem among uncertain system, which is applicable for practical problem. Finally a case study shows a satisfactory result.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Selection method of risk response schemes for mining project based on fuzzy preference relations

To overcome the subjectivity of experts in the process of risk response scheme selection, according to the theory of group decision making, a selection method and flow of the risk response schemes for a mining project was proposed based on fuzzy preference relation and consistency induced ordered weighted averaging (C-IOWA) operator,which can overcome the loss of information in the process of group decision making to a great degree, and improve its efficiency and quality.A numeric example was introduced to illustrate the application of the method, also validating the method as scientific and practicable.

Optimal Decision-Making of Trans-Provincial Electricity Market Subjects with Risks under Renewable Portfolio Standards

The randomness and uncertainty of renewable energy generation are expected to significantly change the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.Therefore,it is beneficial to optimize the interests of each of these subjects,considering the unpredictable risks of renewable energy under the renewable portfolio standards(RPS)and researching their effects on the optimal decision-making of transprovincial electricity market multi-subjects.First,we develop a trans-provincial trading market mechanism for renewable energy and clarify the electricity supply and demand relation and the green certificates supply and demand relation of trans-provincial electricitymarketmulti-subjects.Then,under the RPS,we construct a multi-subject game model of the power supply chain that recognizes the risks,and adopt the reverse induction method to discuss the optimum risk-taking judgment of each subject in the trans-provincial electricity market.Finally,we useMATLAB to verify the viability and efficacy of the proposed gamemodel,and obtain a certain reference value for the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.In summary,we consider the uncertainty risks of renewable energy under RPS,study the effects of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient in the RPS mechanism on the optimal decisionmaking of trans-provincial electricity market subjects,and obtain the changing trends of two different power products and those of different electricity market subjects under the influence of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient,which have a certain reference value for studying the factors affecting the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.

Econometric Analysis of Risk Preference Patterns among Smallholder Organic Producers in South Africa

The article assesses the determinants of farmers＇ decisions to participate in organic farming, eliciting farmers risk preferences and empirically analysing farmer＇s sources of risk and risk management strategies. The ordered probit results indicate that older farmers, who are less risk averse and reside in the sub-ward Ogagwini, Ezigani and Hwayi were more likely to be certified organic. Similarly, the propensity to adopt organic farming is positively correlated to household size, livestock ownership, asset base and tenure security. At higher pay-offs, farmers were intermediate to moderately risk-averse, with little variation according to personal characteristics. In general, price, production and financial risks were perceived as important sources of risk. Seven principal components, explaining 66.13% of the variation were extracted. Socio-economic factors having a significant effect on the various sources of risk were age, gender, education, location, information access and risk taking ability. The dimensions of risk strategies were named as diversification, precautionary savings and social networks. Results provide practical insights for policy changes relevant in motivating the adoption of organic practices, increasing smallholder farmers＇ capacity to manage risk and driving growth in the organic food market.

Linear-contract Mechanisms Based on the Risk Preference of an Agent in a Supply Chain

With respect to different risk preference of an agent in a supply chain, linear-contract models are designed according to the principal-agent theory. The study shows that the risk preference of an agent directly correlates with the incentive compensation coefficient of principal, order quantity of principal and production capability level of the agent. The principal should offer an appropriate incentive contract according to the risk preference of the agent, or choose an agent holding a different risk preference to establish the supply chain.

Probabilistic Lane-Change Decision-Making and Planning for Autonomous Heavy Vehicles

To improve the safety and driving stability of the autonomous heavy truck, it is necessary to consider the differences of driving behavior and drivable trajectories between the heavy trucks and passenger cars. This study proposes a probabilistic decision-making and trajectory planning framework for the autonomous heavy trucks. Firstly, the driving decision process is divided into intention generation and feasibility evaluations, which are realized using the utility theory and risk assessment, respectively. Subsequently the driving decision is made and sent to the trajectory planning module. In order to reflect the greater risks of the truck to other surrounding vehicles, the aggressiveness index(AI) is proposed and quantified to infer the asymmetrical risk level of lane-change maneuver. In the planning stage, the lateral and roll dynamics stability domains are developed as the constraints to exclude the candidate trajectories that would cause vehicle instability. Finally, the simulation results are compared between the proposed model and the artificial potential filed model in the scenarios extracted from the naturalistic driving data. It is shown that the proposed framework can provide the human-like lane-change decisions and truck-friendly trajectories, and performs well in dynamic driving environments.

Method for multi-attribute group decision-making based on the compromise weights

Multi-attribute group decision-making problems are considered where information on both attribute weights and value scores of consequences is incomplete.In group decision analysis,if preference information about alternatives is provided by participants,it should be verified whether there exist compromise weights that can support all the preference relations.The different compromise weight vectors may differ for the ranking of the alternatives.In the case that compromise weights exist,the method is proposed to find out all the compromise weight vectors in order to rank the alternatives.Based on the new feasible domain of attribute weights determined by all the compromise weight vectors and the incomplete information on value scores of consequences,dominance relations between alternatives are checked by a nonlinear goal programming model which can be transformed into a linear one by adopting a transformation.The checked dominance relations uniformly hold for all compromise weight vectors and the incomplete information on value scores of consequences.A final ranking of the alternatives can be obtained by aggregating these dominance relations.

Consensus intuitionistic fuzzy group decision-making method for aircraft cockpit display and control system evaluation

A novel group decision-making （GDM） method based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets （IFSs） is developed to evaluate the ergonomics of aircraft cockpit display and control system （ACDCS）. The GDM process with four steps is discussed. Firstly, approaches are proposed to transform four types of common judgement representations into a unified expression by the form of the IFS, and the features of unifications are analyzed. Then, the aggregation operator called the IFSs weighted averaging （IFSWA） operator is taken to synthesize decision-makers’ （DMs’） preferences by the form of the IFS. In this operator, the DM’s reliability weights factors are determined based on the distance measure between their preferences. Finally, an improved score function is used to rank alternatives and to get the best one. An illustrative example proves the proposed method is effective to valuate the ergonomics of the ACDCS.

Group Decision Making With Consistency of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations Under Uncertainty

Intuitionistic fuzzy preference relation(IFPR) is a suitable technique to express fuzzy preference information by decision makers(DMs). This paper aims to provide a group decision making method where DMs use the IFPRs to indicate their preferences with uncertain weights. To begin with, a model to derive weight vectors of alternatives from IFPRs based on multiplicative consistency is presented. Specifically, for any IFPR,by minimizing its absolute deviation from the corresponding consistent IFPR, the weight vectors are generated. Secondly,a method to determine relative weights of DMs depending on preference information is developed. After that we prioritize alternatives based on the obtained weights considering the risk preference of DMs. Finally, this approach is applied to the problem of technical risks assessment of armored equipment to illustrate the applicability and superiority of the proposed method.

DNA extraction method selection for agricultural soil using TOPSIS multiple criteria decision-making model

There is an increased interest in the extraction of nucleic acids from various environmental samples since culture-independent molecular techniques contribute to deepen and broaden the understanding of a greater portion of uncultivable microorganisms. Due to difficulties to select the optimum DNA extraction method in view of downstream molecular analyses, this article presents a straightforward mathematical framework for comparing some of the most commonly used methods. Four commercial DNA extraction kits and two physical-chemical methods (bead-beating and freeze-thaw) were compared for the extraction of DNA under several quantitative DNA analysis criteria: yield of extraction, purity of extracted DNA (A260/280 and A260/230 ratios), degradation degree of DNA, easiness of PCR amplification, duration of extraction, and cost per extraction. From a practical point of view, it is unlikely that a single DNA extraction strategy can be optimum for all selected criteria. Hence, a systematic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was employed to compare the methods. The PowerSoil? DNA Isolation Kit was systematically defined as the best performing method for extracting DNA from soil samples. More specifically, for soil:manure and soil:manure:biochar mixtures, the PowerSoil?DNA Isolation Kit method performed best, while for neat soil samples its alternative version gained the first rank.

Incongruence between the Preferred Mode of Delivery and Risk of Childbirth Complications among Antepartum Women in Mulago Hospital, Uganda

Objective: Women’s preferences for the mode of delivery provide clues on their knowledge and perceptions of anticipated risk of childbirth complications.?The objective was toinvestigate?incongruence between preferred mode of delivery and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Methods: Through a cross-sectional study, data were?collected from 327?women admitted to Mulago hospital. Data included socio-demographic?characteristics, past medical, gynaecological and obstetric history, pregnancy complications, knowledge of pregnancy complications and preferred mode of delivery. The preferred mode of delivery and knowledge of related risks for adverse pregnancy outcomes were compared. Results: The mean age of participants was 24.7 years (±5.9), ranging?14?-?43 years, of whom 41.4% were nulliparous. The preferred mode of delivery was vaginal (84.1%). Incongruence?(preference for a mode of delivery that did not correspond to expected or anticipated risks) occurred in 88 (26.9%) of the women, and was associated with having secondary school or higher level of education (OR 2.49, CI 1.52?-?4.08) and history of previous vaginal delivery (OR 3.82,?CI 1.94?-?7.49). Conclusion: One in four women had incongruence between preferred mode of delivery and risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes, which called?for urgent interventions to improve decision-making about intrapartum care.