Risk management is relevant for every project that which seeks to avoid and suppress unanticipated costs, basically calling for pre-emptive action. The current work proposes a new approach for handling risks based on ...Risk management is relevant for every project that which seeks to avoid and suppress unanticipated costs, basically calling for pre-emptive action. The current work proposes a new approach for handling risks based on predictive analytics and machine learning (ML) that can work in real-time to help avoid risks and increase project adaptability. The main research aim of the study is to ascertain risk presence in projects by using historical data from previous projects, focusing on important aspects such as time, task time, resources and project results. t-SNE technique applies feature engineering in the reduction of the dimensionality while preserving important structural properties. This process is analysed using measures including recall, F1-score, accuracy and precision measurements. The results demonstrate that the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) achieves an impressive 85% accuracy, 82% precision, 85% recall, and 80% F1-score, surpassing previous models. Additionally, predictive analytics achieves a resource utilisation efficiency of 85%, compared to 70% for traditional allocation methods, and a project cost reduction of 10%, double the 5% achieved by traditional approaches. Furthermore, the study indicates that while GBM excels in overall accuracy, Logistic Regression (LR) offers more favourable precision-recall trade-offs, highlighting the importance of model selection in project risk management.展开更多
Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data,the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China ...Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data,the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period(2016–2035), medium term period(2046–2065) and long term period(2080–2099),respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21 st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients,large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.展开更多
Starting with the meanings of the terms “risk” and “uncertainty,””he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of “risk” and “uncertainty...Starting with the meanings of the terms “risk” and “uncertainty,””he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of “risk” and “uncertainty” interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective, and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.展开更多
Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such proj...Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.展开更多
Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse ...Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.展开更多
Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its gre...Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its great contributions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Concerning construction processes, both risk management (RM) and value engineering (VE) techniques have commonalities from the beginning up to the completion of the project due to enhancing the project value/quality, meeting the project deadline, and reducing overall project cost. VE includes resolving the uncertainty of project objectives and ensuring that the project is delivered in a value for money way. The key point of RM is to solve the uncertainty of the project itself and its results to ensure that the specifications are achieved within the prescribed time, cost, and quality constraints. This review work is comparatively and collectively focus</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ed</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> on assessing the role of RM and VE tools for project successful delivery. It studies the points of difference and common features of the two aspects in terms of construction project delivery. So, this study concluded that in construction RM tool cannot be the chief aim of the all parties involved in the project execution because sometimes it produces itself negative results and reduces project management success. Therefore, RM needs a strong combination with VE due to the dependence of the target in identifying and assessing risks by considering the highest performance and lowest cost. The integration of RM and VE combination in a single study would avoid duplication of work and deliver better value for money thereby leading to better project outcomes.展开更多
A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in eval...A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in evaluating operations,safety,economic,and stakeholder objectives are available,a practical method that integrates all these risk factors and their uncertainties into a multiattribute decision-making tool is absent.A three-level project decision-making process was developed to model and assess multiple-attribute risk in a proposed traffic treatment from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.The direct benefits from reducing delay and safety risk(basic objectives of traffic treatments) are computed in Level 1 with established methods.Feasibility and performance analysis in Level 2 examine site-specific constraints and conduct detailed performance analysis using advanced analysis tools.In Level 3,this paper introduces an innovative and integrated multiple attributes evaluation process under fuzziness and uncertainty(MAFU) process for evaluation and decision-making.The MAFU is a comprehensive and systematic assessment and decision-making procedure that can assess the magnitudes of project performance and to integrate conflicting interests and tradeoffs among stakeholders.A case study illustrates theapplication of MAFU for the selection of a traffic alternative involving several evaluation attributes and stakeholders.Results show that the MAFU produced the smallest variance for each alternative.With traditional cost–benefit evaluation methods,the uncertainty associated with performance of a traffic project in terms of operation,safety,environmental impacts,etc.,is unrestricted and cumulative.Therefore,a reliable multi-attribute evaluation of complex traffic projects should not be made with conventional cost–benefit analysis alone but with a process like MAFU.展开更多
Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are on the way to become the most usual form of contracting applied by the private sector to undertake construction works on large scale Hydropower projects. I...Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are on the way to become the most usual form of contracting applied by the private sector to undertake construction works on large scale Hydropower projects. If EPC contract management is not implemented and controlled properly. Quality is the first important factor for any contractors who involve in the hydropower project execution. The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate risks causing not good quality of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam. In addition, the study also provided the recommendations for project practitioners to mitigate the impacts of those identified risks. The findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environments to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on quality, thus will ensuring the benefits to the government, the investors, the contractors, and the parties involved.展开更多
Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are becoming the most popular form to undertake construction works on large-scale hydropower projects.?The EPC general contractors in Vietnam have been coped w...Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are becoming the most popular form to undertake construction works on large-scale hydropower projects.?The EPC general contractors in Vietnam have been coped with lots of difficulties during the construction phase of hydropower projects, resulting in significant schedule delays and cost overrun. One of the reasons is poor Subcontractors capacity.?In order to overcome above, the current study attempts?to research on identification and control Subcontractors risks of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam.?Through summarizing international research achievements of previous researches relating on EPC hydropower projects combining with analysis characteristics of developing construction of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam, the current study pointed out all kinds of subcontractor risk of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam;?a questionnaire with 18 risk elements was designed and then delivered to experts in EPC hydropower project management area. Based on the risk model, 11 main risk elements were identified which can be categorized into 3 groups.?Lastly, the current study proposed suggestions to reduce or avoid risks as well as approach to control risks.?Furthermore, the findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environment to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on schedule, thus ensuring the benefits to the government, the investor, the contractor, and the parties involved.展开更多
This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks(quantifiable bad things that can happen)and uncertainties(poorly or not qu...This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks(quantifiable bad things that can happen)and uncertainties(poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events).Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that(a)project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,(b)while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,(c)improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and(d)projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.展开更多
International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to me...International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.展开更多
The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the wo...The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of construction project duration prediction, this paper proposes a CNN attention BP combination model </span><span style="font-family:"white-space:...In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of construction project duration prediction, this paper proposes a CNN attention BP combination model </span><span style="font-family:"white-space:normal;">project risk prediction model based on attention mechanism, one-dimensional </span><span style="font-family:"white-space:normal;">convolutional neural network (1d-cnn) and BP neural network. Firstly, the literature analysis method is used to select the risk evaluation index value of construction project, and the attention mechanism is used to determine the weight of risk factors on construction period prediction;then, BP neural network is used to predict the project duration, and accuracy, cross entropy loss function and F1 score are selected to comprehensively evaluate the performance of 1d-cnn-attention-bp combined model. The experimental results show that the duration risk prediction accuracy of the risk prediction model proposed in this paper is more than 90%, which can meet the risk prediction of construction projects with high accuracy.展开更多
The frequently observed positive impact of adopting risk management strategies on projects’ overall outcome has led many software development organizations to appreciate its significant role in the pursuit of cost re...The frequently observed positive impact of adopting risk management strategies on projects’ overall outcome has led many software development organizations to appreciate its significant role in the pursuit of cost reduction, schedule overruns decrease and, generally, improved performance. In line with this issue, this study investigates a wide range of relevant literature, proposes a new conceptual framework for managing risk in software development projects, introduces new conceptual factors, brings out their interrelation, and suggests new prospects and managerial implications for both practitioners and academics. The conceptual framework has two basic axes. Firstly, the determination of the impact of constructs such as Project Characteristics, Project Risk Management Team, Risk Identification Approaches, and Project Quality on the level of Project Risk. The majority of the items used to measure these constructs are proposed for the first time in the literature. Additionally, the assessment of the impact of Project Risk (and all of the dimensions that compose it), simultaneously with the estimation of the impact of the Residual Performance Risk on the final subjective and objective Project Performance could provide project managers with a better picture of the effectiveness and adequacy of their risk management practices.展开更多
Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks tha...Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM (project risk management) process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.展开更多
Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objec...Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.展开更多
Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of ...Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.展开更多
Currently,the investment of oil and gas industry is still facing an unfavorable environment,in which,instable factors,such as financial crisis,terrorist,religious conflicts and rigorous environmental regulations,keep ...Currently,the investment of oil and gas industry is still facing an unfavorable environment,in which,instable factors,such as financial crisis,terrorist,religious conflicts and rigorous environmental regulations,keep mucking up the business all around the world.Meanwhile,China’s rapid energy consumption growth boosted by a booming economy has put the country to rely heavily on exported oil.It is therefore extremely urgent to expand and diversify petroleum supply channel in consideration of the country’s energy security.As the world’s economy has been slowly recovering from the slump and展开更多
The enterprise informationization (El) project has already become modernization level and synthesis power of the enterprise. However, information project risk. In order to reduce the El project risk, it is necessary...The enterprise informationization (El) project has already become modernization level and synthesis power of the enterprise. However, information project risk. In order to reduce the El project risk, it is necessary to adopt reasonable incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment. an urgent work to raise the asymmetry increases the EI investment mode, to carry on incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment.展开更多
In recent years, in Vietnam, economy has been developing rapidly. To ensure rapid and sustainable economic growth, strong support from the energy sector is required. Governments in Vietnam have invested in numerous hy...In recent years, in Vietnam, economy has been developing rapidly. To ensure rapid and sustainable economic growth, strong support from the energy sector is required. Governments in Vietnam have invested in numerous hydropower projects, many of which employ the EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) contract. However, the EPC general contractors are facing many difficulties, resulting in schedule delays and considerable losses. This research is conducted to highlight the main risk factors in the delays of hydropower construction projects in Vietnam. The research employs the method of statistical calculations and risk analysis to obtain feedback from experts participating in similar projects. The research outcomes are as follows: identifying the risks that can cause delays in EPC hydroelectric construction projects in Vietnam;calculating and classifying the degree of impact of each risk to the progress of the construction. The practical significance of this study is to ensure the timely completion of projects, benefits for the investors, and the EPC general contractors.展开更多
文摘Risk management is relevant for every project that which seeks to avoid and suppress unanticipated costs, basically calling for pre-emptive action. The current work proposes a new approach for handling risks based on predictive analytics and machine learning (ML) that can work in real-time to help avoid risks and increase project adaptability. The main research aim of the study is to ascertain risk presence in projects by using historical data from previous projects, focusing on important aspects such as time, task time, resources and project results. t-SNE technique applies feature engineering in the reduction of the dimensionality while preserving important structural properties. This process is analysed using measures including recall, F1-score, accuracy and precision measurements. The results demonstrate that the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) achieves an impressive 85% accuracy, 82% precision, 85% recall, and 80% F1-score, surpassing previous models. Additionally, predictive analytics achieves a resource utilisation efficiency of 85%, compared to 70% for traditional allocation methods, and a project cost reduction of 10%, double the 5% achieved by traditional approaches. Furthermore, the study indicates that while GBM excels in overall accuracy, Logistic Regression (LR) offers more favourable precision-recall trade-offs, highlighting the importance of model selection in project risk management.
基金supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201306019)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275078)+1 种基金the Grant Projects of China Clean Development Mechanism Fund (121312)the Climate Change Foundation of the China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201339)
文摘Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data,the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period(2016–2035), medium term period(2046–2065) and long term period(2080–2099),respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21 st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients,large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.
文摘Starting with the meanings of the terms “risk” and “uncertainty,””he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of “risk” and “uncertainty” interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective, and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.
基金supported by the State Grid Science and Technology Project (SGTYHT/16-JS-198)
文摘Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.
文摘Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.
文摘Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its great contributions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Concerning construction processes, both risk management (RM) and value engineering (VE) techniques have commonalities from the beginning up to the completion of the project due to enhancing the project value/quality, meeting the project deadline, and reducing overall project cost. VE includes resolving the uncertainty of project objectives and ensuring that the project is delivered in a value for money way. The key point of RM is to solve the uncertainty of the project itself and its results to ensure that the specifications are achieved within the prescribed time, cost, and quality constraints. This review work is comparatively and collectively focus</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ed</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> on assessing the role of RM and VE tools for project successful delivery. It studies the points of difference and common features of the two aspects in terms of construction project delivery. So, this study concluded that in construction RM tool cannot be the chief aim of the all parties involved in the project execution because sometimes it produces itself negative results and reduces project management success. Therefore, RM needs a strong combination with VE due to the dependence of the target in identifying and assessing risks by considering the highest performance and lowest cost. The integration of RM and VE combination in a single study would avoid duplication of work and deliver better value for money thereby leading to better project outcomes.
文摘A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in evaluating operations,safety,economic,and stakeholder objectives are available,a practical method that integrates all these risk factors and their uncertainties into a multiattribute decision-making tool is absent.A three-level project decision-making process was developed to model and assess multiple-attribute risk in a proposed traffic treatment from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.The direct benefits from reducing delay and safety risk(basic objectives of traffic treatments) are computed in Level 1 with established methods.Feasibility and performance analysis in Level 2 examine site-specific constraints and conduct detailed performance analysis using advanced analysis tools.In Level 3,this paper introduces an innovative and integrated multiple attributes evaluation process under fuzziness and uncertainty(MAFU) process for evaluation and decision-making.The MAFU is a comprehensive and systematic assessment and decision-making procedure that can assess the magnitudes of project performance and to integrate conflicting interests and tradeoffs among stakeholders.A case study illustrates theapplication of MAFU for the selection of a traffic alternative involving several evaluation attributes and stakeholders.Results show that the MAFU produced the smallest variance for each alternative.With traditional cost–benefit evaluation methods,the uncertainty associated with performance of a traffic project in terms of operation,safety,environmental impacts,etc.,is unrestricted and cumulative.Therefore,a reliable multi-attribute evaluation of complex traffic projects should not be made with conventional cost–benefit analysis alone but with a process like MAFU.
文摘Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are on the way to become the most usual form of contracting applied by the private sector to undertake construction works on large scale Hydropower projects. If EPC contract management is not implemented and controlled properly. Quality is the first important factor for any contractors who involve in the hydropower project execution. The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate risks causing not good quality of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam. In addition, the study also provided the recommendations for project practitioners to mitigate the impacts of those identified risks. The findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environments to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on quality, thus will ensuring the benefits to the government, the investors, the contractors, and the parties involved.
文摘Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are becoming the most popular form to undertake construction works on large-scale hydropower projects.?The EPC general contractors in Vietnam have been coped with lots of difficulties during the construction phase of hydropower projects, resulting in significant schedule delays and cost overrun. One of the reasons is poor Subcontractors capacity.?In order to overcome above, the current study attempts?to research on identification and control Subcontractors risks of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam.?Through summarizing international research achievements of previous researches relating on EPC hydropower projects combining with analysis characteristics of developing construction of EPC hydropower projects in Vietnam, the current study pointed out all kinds of subcontractor risk of delay process of EPC hydropower project in Vietnam;?a questionnaire with 18 risk elements was designed and then delivered to experts in EPC hydropower project management area. Based on the risk model, 11 main risk elements were identified which can be categorized into 3 groups.?Lastly, the current study proposed suggestions to reduce or avoid risks as well as approach to control risks.?Furthermore, the findings of this study can be a good managerial reference for project management teams who are working in other countries that have similar economic and investment environment to Vietnam to get their EPC construction project completed on schedule, thus ensuring the benefits to the government, the investor, the contractor, and the parties involved.
文摘This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks(quantifiable bad things that can happen)and uncertainties(poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events).Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that(a)project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,(b)while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,(c)improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and(d)projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.
基金supported by the Young Fund of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics(No.QN-2018002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71774105)the Fund for Shanxi Key Subjects Construction(FSKSC)and Shanxi Repatriate Study Abroad Foundation(No.2016-3)
文摘International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.
文摘The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.
文摘In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of construction project duration prediction, this paper proposes a CNN attention BP combination model </span><span style="font-family:"white-space:normal;">project risk prediction model based on attention mechanism, one-dimensional </span><span style="font-family:"white-space:normal;">convolutional neural network (1d-cnn) and BP neural network. Firstly, the literature analysis method is used to select the risk evaluation index value of construction project, and the attention mechanism is used to determine the weight of risk factors on construction period prediction;then, BP neural network is used to predict the project duration, and accuracy, cross entropy loss function and F1 score are selected to comprehensively evaluate the performance of 1d-cnn-attention-bp combined model. The experimental results show that the duration risk prediction accuracy of the risk prediction model proposed in this paper is more than 90%, which can meet the risk prediction of construction projects with high accuracy.
文摘The frequently observed positive impact of adopting risk management strategies on projects’ overall outcome has led many software development organizations to appreciate its significant role in the pursuit of cost reduction, schedule overruns decrease and, generally, improved performance. In line with this issue, this study investigates a wide range of relevant literature, proposes a new conceptual framework for managing risk in software development projects, introduces new conceptual factors, brings out their interrelation, and suggests new prospects and managerial implications for both practitioners and academics. The conceptual framework has two basic axes. Firstly, the determination of the impact of constructs such as Project Characteristics, Project Risk Management Team, Risk Identification Approaches, and Project Quality on the level of Project Risk. The majority of the items used to measure these constructs are proposed for the first time in the literature. Additionally, the assessment of the impact of Project Risk (and all of the dimensions that compose it), simultaneously with the estimation of the impact of the Residual Performance Risk on the final subjective and objective Project Performance could provide project managers with a better picture of the effectiveness and adequacy of their risk management practices.
文摘Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM (project risk management) process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.
文摘Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71172123Aviation Science Fund under Grant No.2012ZG53083humanities and social science research special task project of Chinese Ministry of education under Grant No.10JDSZ1010
文摘Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.
文摘Currently,the investment of oil and gas industry is still facing an unfavorable environment,in which,instable factors,such as financial crisis,terrorist,religious conflicts and rigorous environmental regulations,keep mucking up the business all around the world.Meanwhile,China’s rapid energy consumption growth boosted by a booming economy has put the country to rely heavily on exported oil.It is therefore extremely urgent to expand and diversify petroleum supply channel in consideration of the country’s energy security.As the world’s economy has been slowly recovering from the slump and
文摘The enterprise informationization (El) project has already become modernization level and synthesis power of the enterprise. However, information project risk. In order to reduce the El project risk, it is necessary to adopt reasonable incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment. an urgent work to raise the asymmetry increases the EI investment mode, to carry on incentive and constraint effectively and to structure perfect market environment.
文摘In recent years, in Vietnam, economy has been developing rapidly. To ensure rapid and sustainable economic growth, strong support from the energy sector is required. Governments in Vietnam have invested in numerous hydropower projects, many of which employ the EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) contract. However, the EPC general contractors are facing many difficulties, resulting in schedule delays and considerable losses. This research is conducted to highlight the main risk factors in the delays of hydropower construction projects in Vietnam. The research employs the method of statistical calculations and risk analysis to obtain feedback from experts participating in similar projects. The research outcomes are as follows: identifying the risks that can cause delays in EPC hydroelectric construction projects in Vietnam;calculating and classifying the degree of impact of each risk to the progress of the construction. The practical significance of this study is to ensure the timely completion of projects, benefits for the investors, and the EPC general contractors.