Environmental Risk Factors for Stomach Cancer in an African Setting about 193 Cases at the CHU Point G in Bamako/Mali

CHU (University Hospital Center) Point G: The department of surgery B is a surgical department of CHU Point G. The department is par excellence a reference department for cases of visceral surgery, cancer surgery, cardiovascular surgery, plastic and endocrinology surgery. As a reminder, the CHU Point G is the largest 3rd level referral hospital in Mali. Aim: To study the environmental risk factors of stomach cancer in the B surgery department of the Point G University Hospital in Bamako. Patients and Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study with retrospective collection from January 2008 to June 2018 (126 months). Results: We have identified 380 cases of digestive cancer, including 193 cases of stomach cancer or 50.79% of digestive cancers. The mean age of the patients was 57.21 ± 13 years. Male sex represented 55% (n = 106). Eating habits were dominated by the consumption of tô with potash (cereal paste) with 64.76% (n = 185). The main methods of preserving meat and fish were curing and smoking with 57.51% (n = 111). Chronic smoking was found in 24.35% (n = 47), alcohol + tobacco consumption in 2.59% (n = 5). The low socio-economic class represented 126 cases or 65.38%. Housewives and cultivators were respectively 37.82% (n = 73) and 227.97% (n = 54). 20.20% (n = 39) had a history of epigastric pain. Epigastralgia was the most common functional sign with 84.5% of cases (n = 169). An epigastric mass was found in 72 patients or 37.3%. Adenocarcinoma represented 97.4% (n = 188). Palliative surgery concerned the majority of our patients with 64.8% of patients (n = 79). The postoperative consequences were simple in 28.57% of cases (n = 28), the postoperative morbidity and mortality were respectively 33.61% (n = 41), and 23.77% (n = 29). The overall survival rate after surgery was 10.81% at 2 years and 2.94% at 5 years. This rate was 58.83% at 2 years and 28.50% at 5 years after curative surgery. Conclusion: The risk factors for stomach cancer are many and varied. Some are particularly present in Africa. Delay in diagnosis due to a belief in traditional healers is common in our community.

A Project Risk Ranking Approach Based on Set Pair Analysis

Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.

A Fuzzy Set-Based Approach for Model-Based Internet-Banking System Security Risk Assessment

A fuzzy set-based evaluation approach is demonstrated to assess the security risks for internet-banking System. The Internet-banking system is semi-formally described using Unified Modeling Language （UML） to specify the behavior and state of the system on the base of analyzing the existing qualitative risk assessment methods. And a quantitative method based on fuzzy set is used to measure security risks of the system, A case study was performed on the WEB server of the Internet-banking System using fuzzy-set based assessment algorithm to quantitatively compute the security risk severity. The numeric result also provides a method to decide the most critical component which should amuse the system administrator enough attention to take the appropriate security measure or controls to alleviate the risk severity. The experiments show this method can be used to quantify the security properties for the Internet-banking System in practice.

Risk Evaluation Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets and Information Diffusion Method

Risk evaluation is an effective way to reduce the impacts of natural hazards and it plays an increasingly important role in emergency management. Traditional methods of assessing risks mainly utilize Geographic Information System (GIS) to get risk map, and information diffusion method (IDM) to deal with incomplete data sets. However, there are few papers discuss the uncertainty of integrated hazards and consider dynamic risk under time dimension. The model proposed in this study combines the variable fuzzy set theory with information diffusion method (VFS-IDM) to solve the uncertainness of multiple hazards dynamic risk assessment when data sets are incomplete. This study employs fuzzy set theory (VFS) to calculate the relative membership degree and applies information entropy method (IEM) to obtain the weights of criteria indicators for multiple hazards evaluation. Then applies information diffusion method (IDM) to estimate condition probability distribution and vulnerability curve with the VFS-IEM model results, time data and multiple hazards losses. Then the expected value of multiple hazards dynamic risk can be calculated by using the normal information diffusion estimator so as to improve the accuracy of risk evaluation results.

Entropy-Based Set Pair Analysis Model on Geological Disaster Risk for Military Engineering

Measuring the geological disaster-risked situation, is a typical non-deterministic decision-making issue in disaster pre- vention and emergency response science for military engineering. Based on the given geological disaster risk analysis mechanism, geological disaster risk monitoring matrix was established, and risk characters’ value was obtained by mining the hidden information in the monitoring matrix with Entropy theory;with Identity, Discrepancy, and Contrary of Set Pair Analysis and distance measurement, geological disaster-risked model was erected for military engineering, and the steps were given for measuring geological disaster risk, which determined geological disaster-risked SPA force and order relationship of military engineering. Finally, case showed that model has the feasibility and effectiveness over measuring the geological disaster-risked situation for military engineering.

Set up and validation of Chinese Risk Stratification System for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Objective Our study aims to evaluate the performance of Chinese risk stratification system for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in the prediction of in-hospital mortality and major postoperative complications afterCABG. Methods Clinical information of 9564 consecutive CABG patients was collected in Chinese Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Registry which recruited 43 centers over China between 2007 and 2008.

Multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory-based environmental risk evaluation for tailings reservoirs

Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.

铁路隧道施工安全风险评估及趋势分析研究

为解决铁路隧道施工安全风险等级评定和趋势分析的问题,基于工程资料和相关文献,应用层次全息建模(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM)理论从自然环境、地质条件、施工技术、施工管理四个维度开展铁路隧道施工安全风险因素辨识工作。以相关技术规范为依据,结合专家经验构建铁路隧道安全风险评估指标体系。选用G1法、改进基于指标间相关性分析的权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation,CRITIC)、最小二乘法测算评估指标权重,运用集对分析理论建立铁路隧道施工安全风险评估模型,遵循级别特征值判别规则评定安全风险等级,基于偏联系数理论分析安全风险发展趋势,并成功应用于D隧道的安全风险等级评定和趋势分析,验证了评估方法的可行性和科学性,为铁路隧道施工安全风险评估提供了一种新方法,为铁路隧道施工安全风险管控提供理论支撑。

Risk Analysis Technique on Inconsistent Interview Big Data Based on Rough Set Approach

Rough set theory is relativly new to area of soft computing to handle the uncertain big data efficiently. It also provides a powerful way to calculate the importance degree of vague and uncertain big data to help in decision making. Risk assessment is very important for safe and reliable investment. Risk management involves assessing the risk sources and designing strategies and procedures to mitigate those risks to an acceptable level. In this paper, we emphasize on classification of different types of risk factors and find a simple and effective way to calculate the risk exposure.. The study uses rough set method to classify and judge the safety attributes related to investment policy. The method which based on intelligent knowledge accusation provides an innovative way for risk analysis. From this approach, we are able to calculate the significance of each factor and relative risk exposure based on the original data without assigning the weight subjectively.

基于改进FMEA的污水厂设备故障风险评估模型

为保障污水处理厂正常运行,预防厂内设备发生故障,提出一种改进的故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)的风险评估模型。首先采用FMEA法识别污水厂设备故障模式,并结合毕达哥拉斯模糊集(PFS)刻画不确定评估信息;其次利用逐步权重评估比率分析法(SWARA)和最大偏差法计算主客观权重,通过博弈论组合权重计算3个风险因子的综合权重;然后采用多目标优化比率分析法(MOORA)对设备故障模式进行风险排序。最后以长春市Z污水厂设备故障风险评估为例,并将所提模型与传统FMEA、毕达哥拉斯模糊(PF)-优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)和PF-妥协折衷排序法(PF-VIKOR)等方法对比,验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:污水厂设备故障模式前3位是除砂机抽取的砂浆所含有机物过多、膜片脱落或破裂和大块异物进入水泵。

基于毕达哥拉斯模糊概率Petri网的FPSO单点关键部件风险评估

为准确对FPSO单点系泊系统关键部件进行风险评估,通过产生式规则建立概率Petri网络模型,基于德尔菲法的结构熵权法确定专家权重,并引入毕达哥拉斯模糊集理论收集、聚合专家意见得到基本事件的模糊可能性得分和模糊失效概率,利用概率推理算法迭代出最终的失效概率,并进行基本事件重要度分析。实例分析结果表明,引起单点系泊系统发生失效的主要因素有电滑环电刷磨损、电滑环负载电流较高、液滑环结构物晃动冲击、液滑环润滑不充分、电滑环电压过高击穿等。针对主要风险因素提出预防和控制措施,能够保障系统安全正常地运转。

动车组轮对故障模式分析及风险评估

动车组转向架的检修质量直接关乎行车安全,轮对是转向架重点部件,为提高其检修品质,将轮对装配结构的可靠性进行分解研究,根据实车故障数据分析制定轮对故障先验模式,再结合三维仿真分析和实车数据完善轮对故障后验模式,同时推导出轮对故障风险顺序数RPN的计算权重,将实车故障数据按故障模式和RPN进行归纳整理,得出轮对装配结构中车轮故障发生频次高且危害大的结论,针对性地分析了车轮检修的重点部位和操作工序,优化了轮对的维修策略,提高了检修品质。

动车组轮对故障模式分析及风险评估

动车组转向架的检修质量直接关乎行车安全,轮对是转向架重点部件,为提高其检修品质,将轮对装配结构的可靠性进行分解研究,根据实车故障数据分析制定轮对故障先验模式,再结合三维仿真分析和实车数据完善轮对故障后验模式,同时推导出轮对故障风险顺序数RPN的计算权重,将实车故障数据按故障模式和RPN进行归纳整理,得出轮对装配结构中车轮故障发生频次高且危害大的结论,针对性地分析了车轮检修的重点部位和操作工序,优化了轮对的维修策略,提高了检修品质。

根据DS理论的船舶风险因素评估分析

针对船舶航行风险评估中存在许多不确定影响因素的问题,提出了在模糊风险评估证据理论基础上建立的风险评估方法。在证据集理论空间中,每一事件均可确认为模糊集合子集且融入了模糊概率理论,从而更全面地描述行业学者的专业经验或证据诠释,由此得出了模糊证据理论质量函数的描述法。最后应用其船舶安全系统,提出了船舶风险因素识别和风险评估详细程序。计算结果证明,此方法可有效避免决策失误,且简单、易行,有较强的推广和应用价值。

Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

基于Pareto蚁群算法的双目标路径规划研究

针对复杂建筑环境人员应急疏散单一路径不能满足火灾环境变化需求的问题,基于改进蚁群算法,结合Pareto双目标解集思想,提出一种组合优化解集的双目标蚁群算法,通过排序优化的思想,实现人员多路径动态疏散规划。在构造Pareto解集的阶段协同考虑疏散路径长度以及火灾风险程度2个优化目标,计算各个解之间的支配关系。利用排序优化蚁群算法的正反馈机制将各组解的信息素按一定比例作为最优路径信息素的积累,加快解集的寻找。最后将其与传统双目标蚁群算法相比较,结果表明:优化后的双目标算法更加适合复杂建筑人员疏散路径规划问题,在寻找多组满足要求解的同时展示目标之间的利弊关系,供决策者选择合适的路径,提高疏散效率。

考虑风电出力和电价不确定性的水风联合现货市场竞价策略

以风电为代表的新能源参与现货市场已是大势所趋,但出力不确定性导致其市场竞争力较弱,而电价的不确定性又进一步增大了其承担的收益风险。联合具有灵活调节能力的水电是有效的解决途径,而制定符合决策者风险意愿的竞价策略则是其中亟须解决的关键问题。为此,从价格接受者角度提出了水电联合风电参与现货市场的竞价模型。模型中采用笛卡尔积组合后的典型场景集描述风电出力、市场电价等多种不确定性,采用条件风险价值衡量不确定性导致的市场风险,并以风险因子作为决策者风险偏好纳入决策过程。通过引入0/1整数变量,将模型中的非线性函数转换为混合整数线性规划模型予以求解。以中国西南某省梯级水电站和风电场为背景,验证了模型的有效性,并进一步分析了风险偏好对竞价决策的影响。

基于集对-组合赋权的填埋场失稳风险评价方法

我国填埋场具有高水位、高气压的特征,现有规范和研究中虽提出了不同的稳定性评价指标和分级标准,但对指标权重和综合风险评估缺乏系统性研究。为此,建立了涵盖填埋场几何构型、垃圾土抗剪强度、液气赋存情况和降雨4类7个指标的填埋场失稳风险评价指标体系,通过参数敏感性分析实现5级分类(稳定、较稳定、基本稳定、不稳定、极不稳定),并采用集对分析构建指标联系度函数。采用指标重要性排序法,通过参数敏感性分析、工程失稳事故、文献关注度统计和博弈论组合赋权,确定了评价指标的综合权重。最后,将指标综合权重与指标联系度函数耦合,建立了填埋场失稳风险综合评价模型,并应用于一实际填埋场工程中,与现场实际监测数据结果一致,验证了评价模型的准确性和有效性。

基于Rough set的采空区地面塌陷危险性评价

为掌握各因素对采空区地面塌陷危险性评价的不同影响以及部分因素之间存在的联系,采用Rough set理论对采空区地面塌陷危险性进行评价。该理论具有强大的数据挖掘和知识发现能力,把属性集合中的相关性弱以及重要性差的属性删除,从而能构建相对客观可靠的评价模型。以平煤八矿采空区地面塌陷为例,根据野外调查资料,对其采空区地面塌陷进行危险性评价,结果与实际调查情况基本吻合,表明Rough set理论在评价采空区地面塌陷危险性方面是适用的。