Children＇s Problem Behaviors During Free Time as an Incentive for the Increase in Social Risks and Health Risks

Since children, as a rule, have more free time than adults, it is adults＇ responsibility to provide children with a chance to spend the time of relaxation, play, and fun in a beneficial way. Unfortunately, children＇s spare time is nowadays very frequently organized for the sake of brushing up children＇s knowledge, skills, and competences, which is accomplished by means of escalating extra-curriculum activities. When expressed by teacher and parents, these ambition-related attitudes pave the way for the disappearance of children＇s personal interests and motivations to perform complicated tasks which are perceived as unwanted or obscure by the affected children themselves. This form of adults＇ behavior may lead to the feelings of frustration, stress, demotivation, or rebellion on behalf of their children. The said emotional states, especially in relation to the lack of spontaneous play, give rise to serious psychic dysfunctions, and the instability of children＇s psychic balance. It may also pave the way for various forms of destructive behavior that mostly characterize children of younger school age who are about to start schooling.

Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Risk assessment of transnational oil investment in Central Asia using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Central Asia(including five countries:Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Tajikistan)is rich in oil reserves and has become one of the most important target regions for global oil investment.The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has prompted Central Asia to look outwards for more collaborations in the oil industry.China's need for oil investment in Central Asia has also increased significantly.This research established a comprehensive index system for assessing the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The system incorporated political,regulatory,economic,social,and infrastructural indices.Based on the Delphi method and fuzzy comprehension evaluation method,we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed and analyzed the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The results indicate that the risk score for regulatory risk was highest with the value of 6.1670,indicating a high risk level in transnational oil investment,followed by economic,social,political,and infrastructural risk indices.Of the 18 secondary risk indices calculated,there were seven indices with the probability of high risk occurrence exceeded 30.0%and the descending order was as follows:establishment of mining rights;host country intervention in operations;taxing system;stability of regulations;war and turmoil;labor capital;and ethnic,cultural,and religious differences.These seven critical risks should be watched closely and avoided during transnational oil investment in Central Asia.This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks of investing oil in Central Asia.The findings demonstrate the causes of these risks and provide a scientific basis for reasonably avoiding oil investment risk and improving investment benefits for both host and investing countries.

Delays to Large Construction Projects in Ghana： A Risk Overview

Delay to large scale projects, which is as a result of actions or inactions of some project stakeholders, is becoming a global phenomena and Ghana is no exception. The objective of the research is to identify, rate and rank the most significant risk factors that causes delay on projects and examine the social impact of these delays to recommend modalities to help mitigate these risk factors. The study adopted quantitative methods with the distribution of 144 questionnaires to built environment professionals receiving a response rate of 75.7%. The instrument listed 58 common factors under eight categories that contribute to the causes of delay for respondents to rate. Analysis of data non-parametric test revealed that client, contractor, material and finance category factors significantly resulted in the schedule delay of large infrastructural projects. The survey analysis revealed that micro-factors that result in delays to large construction projects are time constraint, cost overrun, payment problems, dispute and litigation. The research recommended the following modalities to minimize such delays： availability of resources, improved communication and coordination, proper scope definition and feasibilities, utilization of modern technology, appropriate application of technologically based systems and competent project management＇s structures.

Factor analysis and countermeasure simulation on the socio-ecological environment risks during the development of coalbed methane:based on the DEMATEL and FCM models

The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the main influential factors of socioecological environmental risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the triangular fuzzy number method,this paper firstly establishes a comprehensive correlation matrix.Then,the affected factors of socio-ecological environmental risks are analyzed by the DEMATEL method during the development of CBM.Then according to the aspects of centrality and causality,the key indicators are determined.Furthermore,the scenario simulation based on the FCM,the steady-state value and the comprehensive importance of key indicators,and the core indicators are selected.Finally,the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure is done.The results show that:①The index weights are calculated by the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the correlation matrix in DEMATEL is obtained by the weight ratio,which reduces the shortcomings and the subjectivity of traditional DEMATEL method.②The correlation matrix in FCM is established based on the comprehensive correlation matrix in the above improved DEMATEL,which not only makes the FCM model more comprehensive and reduces the difficulty that the FCM correlation matrix is obtained considering the indirect influence relationship between indicators,but also makes up for the disadvantages that DEMATEL excludes during the selection of the core indexes,which are the considerations of the dynamic change of the importance of the indicators.③The rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,the pollution index of soil Merlot,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the standard evaluation index of major pollution factors of underground water,and the ability of personal risk prevention are the key indicators,in which the rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,and the reliability of machinery and equipment are the core indicators and are extremely important for the management of socio-ecological environmental risks during the development of coalbed methane.④The results of the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure show that the core variables affect the socio-ecological environmental risks through such indicators as the degree of production mechanization,the degree of demolition and resettlement,and the ratio of economic loss by the influenced mechanism analysis;the ratio of investment in prevention and construction has the greatest impact on the socio-ecological environment risks in the early stage of CMB development,while the rate of forestry and grass coverage is the most important in the middle and late stages by the influenced result analysis.Therefore,this paper puts forward some corresponding stage suggestions on the prevention and control of socio-ecological environmental risks during the CMB development.In the early stage of CMB development,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction should be increased.In the middle stage,it is very important to reduce the damage of vegetation regions and to improve the reliability of machinery and equipment;in the late stage,the investment in prevention and construction should be increased steadily and the recovery of damaged vegetation areas should be focused on.

基于系统动力学的我国社会重大风险仿真研究

基于系统动力学模型,构建社会重大风险系统因果关系图和流图,运用综合指数法对社会重大风险进行预警分析,并对子系统引起的社会重大风险进行仿真预测以监测我国社会重大风险。结果表明:宏观经济、生态环境及社会治理三个子系统监测预警综合值变化较小,趋势比较平稳,社会重大风险监测预警综合指数整体上呈现出小幅上升的趋势。因此,为防范化解我国的社会重大风险,政府应通过提升常规风险与突发事件应急管理机制精确度,加强社会重大风险的制度化控制,打好防范化解社会重大风险的基础。

社会技术系统视角下众包创新的知识产权风险影响因素研究

众包创新作为企业突破组织边界、获取和整合外部知识、破解创新难题的新型创新模式,却因组织形式松散、参与主体自由自愿以及信息不对称等弊端而使得知识产权风险日趋凸显。从众包创新一般运作流程出发,识别出侵权、流失和归属三类众包创新知识产权风险,结合社会技术系统理论,探索众包创新的知识产权风险影响因素,并运用Fuzzy-DEMATEL方法,以一品威客(www.epwk.com)的“智能家居设备外观设计”为对象展开实证研究。结果表明,众包创新参与主体交流反馈程度的中心度最高,是影响众包创新知识产权风险的关键因素。此外,企业知识管理能力、用户机会主义道德风险、信任程度、知识产权保护法律完善程度和用户知识产权意识都是众包创新知识产权风险的影响因素。

企业社会声誉、经营风险与商业信用融资

组织的社会声誉事关企业间的交易和信用关系,是构建企业动态竞争优势、推动企业高质量发展的重要推手。以2009—2021年A股上市公司为研究对象,实证探讨了企业社会声誉对其商业信用融资的影响,以及经营风险的中介传导效应。研究结果表明,企业社会声誉与商业信用融资之间存在显著的正相关关系,即企业社会声誉越高,其获取商业信用融资的能力越强,经营风险水平在企业社会声誉影响商业信用融资的过程中起到了中介传导效应,表明企业社会声誉的提高会降低其经营风险,进而促进其商业信用融资。进一步研究发现,不同的产权性质、企业规模对企业社会声誉与商业信用融资之间关系的影响存在差异。研究结果对于保障企业及时获取融资,推动企业长足稳定发展具有重要参考价值。

社会-生态系统视角下快速城市化地区生态风险评价与管控分区——以江苏省为例

快速城市化地区是经济增长、社会进步和人口聚集的重要区域,但城市化进程中剧烈的土地利用变化、大规模城镇建设、人口集聚和资源消耗等问题使其面临严峻的生态风险,开展生态风险评价与管控研究对区域生态文明建设和高质量发展至关重要。引入社会-生态系统框架诠释生态风险形成机理,构建了基于“内生性-外源性-控制性”的生态风险评估框架,结合多源数据对2000—2020年江苏省生态风险时空特征进行测度,综合考虑生态风险现状和变化趋势划定生态风险分区,并针对性地提出区域生态风险预防和治理策略。研究结果显示:(1)社会-生态系统理论有助于深化对快速城市化地区生态风险的认识,基于快速城市化地区生态风险源头复杂、受体多元、表现多样的特征,构建集成“内生性-外源性-控制性”的生态风险解析框架,可为快速城市化地区的生态风险诊断和管控发挥积极作用;(2)近20a江苏省内生性生态风险和外源性生态风险有所增加,控制性生态风险略有降低,综合生态风险呈现“南高北低”“西高东低”的特点,高值区主要分布在经济发达、人口密集的城镇中心以及环境敏感区,且风险普遍有所上升,低值区主要分布在水域湿地、大城市郊区以及主要的交通线路;(3)研究期内江苏省生态风险持续下降型、波动下降型、稳定型、波动上升型和持续上升型占比分别为18.79%、2.96%、57.95%、15.88%、4.41%,并可据此将生态风险管控分区划分为生态风险紧急管控区、严格管控区、动态调控区、预防管理区、敏感监控区等5类分区,各区比例分别为12.05%、2.19%、64.42%、16.11%、5.22%。本研究可为解析和评估快速城市化地区的生态风险提供新的视角和方法,并为快速城市化地区的生态风险管理提供参考。

国家公园设立社会影响评价体系构建与实践应用

国家公园建设属于自然保护类公益性生态建设项目,是典型的多元参与主体和激励相容,关键在于协调各相关利益群体充分达成一致共识。基于我国国家公园体制建设特征,从社会影响评价视角,以滇藏两省(区)共建的高黎贡山国家公园为研究实例,对国家公园建设产生的社会效益、社会效果预先做出评估,客观分析可能产生的正、负面影响和利益相关者态度、社会影响程度,以及识别潜在的社会风险。探讨符合国家公园设立的社会影响评价内容和指标体系,以期从社会影响层面为后续国家公园的建设提供科学理论方法与案例借鉴。通过对高黎贡山国家公园设立的社会影响、社会互适性、社会风险、可持续性等进行分析评价,结果显示:(1)与利益相关者在中等程度上相互促进;(2)有利于区域生态、经济、社会的全面协调与可持续发展;(3)与当地社会环境具有较强的相互适应性;(4)整体风险等级不高,存在一般、较小社会风险因素,通过采取针对性的规避和防范措施,可有效化解;(5)通过制定科学合理的社会管理方案,可增强国家公园建设与社会效果的可持续性。因此,高黎贡山国家公园的设立社会影响正向,社会风险可控,利益相关者支持,利大于弊,项目能顺利实施。研究提出的国家公园设立社会影响评价体系符合我国国家公园建设实际,具有较强的理论指引和实践推广。在实施过程中要注重考虑评价目标的多样性、多层次性和社会因素的差异性,并着重强调利益相关者分析和社会风险评价。同时,应基于确立的社会影响评价基础上,开展多层次的保护管理政策调整优化。

上市公司ESG信息强制性披露:制度优势、法理基础与实现路径

随着ESG投资的兴起,上市公司ESG信息应否强制性披露成为全球主要资本市场的重要议题。ESG信息强制性披露有降低信息成本和提高信息质量的制度优势,但我国选择该模式并将其制度化的法理基础及实现路径还有待探讨。社会系统论视角下风险规制的需要和证券法中信息“重大性”标准的适用可成为ESG信息强制性披露的正当性基础。ESG信息强制性披露制度的构建,可在将重要ESG信息解释为证券法框架下重大信息的基础上,通过证监会制定基本原则、证券交易所设计具体规则形成结构化披露规则体系;宜区分以满足投资者决策需要为中心的ESG理念和以关照利益相关者诉求为核心的公司社会责任理念,分两步建立ESG信息披露框架和标准;充分考虑上市公司合规成本,推行渐进式实现方案。

生成式人工智能应用的社会风险与治理路径

生成式人工智能的发展和应用会引发社会生产关系、创新方式、组织结构、运行状态、价值准则的联动变革。在变革过程中也会带来用户数据隐私被侵害,大型科技公司滥用垄断权力,生成内容存在虚假性、误导性、歧视性,难以确定担责主体等具有弥散性和渗透性的社会风险。为此,应当对生成式人工智能生命周期内的设计、应用、监管、救济等流程展开结构化、系统化治理。首先,应通过建构应用清单制度,完善数据分级、分类管理和流通制度,建立数据训练师准入制度,从源头控制相关风险的产生。其次,完善信息内容审查过滤机制,通过技术嵌入方式提升监管机构的参与性和介入性,对生成式人工智能展开全流程监管。最后,应通过建构完善的损害救济制度以及二阶责任分配方案,最大限度降低相关损害后果的负面影响。

医联网下医源性风险偏差感知扩散模型及干预

首先,本研究从多重网络理论视角出发,构建医联网环境下医源性风险偏差感知多渠道扩散模型.该模型考虑了医联网环境下不同信息渠道之间医源性风险偏差感知扩散的交互影响;其次,得出区分医联网下医源性风险偏差感知在公众中扩散开来与否的阈值;最后,利用实际数据对所建立的理论模型进行参数估计及案例分析.研究结论表明:1)与仅进行正确认知的宣传推广相比,在正确认知宣传的同时进行认知纠偏,医联网下医源性风险偏差感知的扩散效率将降低的更加明显;2)与仅对一种或两种渠道中医源性风险偏差感知的扩散进行深度管控相比,如果同时对所有渠道中医源性风险偏差感知的扩散均进行适度干预,医源性风险偏差感知的扩散效率将更显著地降低.

国家安全视域下我国社会保障运行体系风险防控与可持续发展

党的二十大报告强调,要把维护国家安全贯穿党和国家工作各方面全过程,确保国家安全和社会稳定。社会保障发挥着民生保障安全网、收入分配调节器、经济运行减震器的作用,是保障和改善民生、维护社会公平、增进人民福祉的基本制度保障,被视为“治国安邦的大问题”。从社会保障体系建设与人民安全、政治安全、经济安全和社会安全四个层面,对社会保障运行体系与国家安全之间的逻辑关联进行深入剖析,厘清现阶段我国社会保障运行体系存在的三大潜在风险,分别是人口老龄化与社保基金收支不均衡的财务风险、城镇化与社会保障水平城乡差异的社会风险以及就业方式多样化与社会保障覆盖范围不足的制度风险。基于国家安全视域下提出社会保障运行体系相应风险防控策略,进一步探索能够推动社会保障运行体系高质量可持续发展的实践路径,以加强社会保障运行体系风险防控、完善覆盖全民的社会保障体系和推动社会保障制度的现代化建设,充分发挥中国特色社会保障体系在维护国家安全和社会稳定发展方面的重要作用。

风险:我国社会保障面临的挑战

我国现行的社会保障潜伏着多重风险,既有社会保障基金收支风险,也有社会保障制度风险,更有社会保障社会风险。建立社会保障预警系统,才能进一步明晰中央政府与地方政府社会保障职责,加大财政对社会保障支付力度,解决养老保险转制成本,加快社会保障立法,化解社会保障风险。

社会韧性与风险治理

风险治理存在国家、市场和社会三种机制。社会韧性属于社会机制范畴,强调面对外界不确定性与扰动因素时,社会系统自身所具有的调节、恢复和适应能力,以维持社会结构的总体均衡。社会韧性具有稳定性、冗余性、应变性和及时性等特性。从理论上看,社会韧性的内在逻辑与经典风险理论中的制度主义、文化主义两种风险治理路径具有一定的内在契合性,他们均强调在社会组织、社会连接、社会认知等层面增强风险治理能力。从现实上看,社会韧性的理念与思维,有利于化解"中国式风险社会"在风险累积与叠加、风险转移与分配等方面的治理困境。社会韧性的建构,需要在对社会系统进行脆弱性分析的基础上,注重社会包容性、社会连接性和社会能动力的建设,从而逐渐完善风险治理的社会机制。

重大工程项目社会风险评价指标体系研究

我国经济的高速发展带动了一系列重大工程项目的启动,近年来由重大工程项目引起的民众群体性事件呈现上升趋势。在我国高度重视民生这一时代背景下,无论是从居安思危的角度,还是立足于防患于未然,对重大工程项目的社会风险因素进行识别并做出评价都有着重要的意义。基于此以重大工程项目社会风险评价的涵义为基础,分3个层次构建了动态的、可操作性较强的重大工程项目社会风险评价指标体系,同时给出了各指标具体的涵义和度量方法。

重大水利工程社会稳定风险研究

社会系统脆弱性是社会系统稳定风险敏感性的条件,社会系统越脆弱,社会稳定风险就越大。本文从重大水利工程建设的社会风险暴露、社会敏感性和社会应对能力三个维度对重大水利工程建设地区的社会脆弱性成因进行分析。并依据社会系统稳定对重大水利工程建设的响应,构建了重大水利工程社会系统脆弱性评价模型和评价指标体系,将"三峡工程建设———万州地区"作为实证分析对象。结果表明:1999-2011年万州社会系统脆弱性呈现"倒U型"变化趋势,其中万州社会系统风险呈现"增—减—增"的变化、社会系统应对能力不断提升,表明万州社会系统脆弱性的下降不是来自其社会系统风险的下降,而是来自万州社会系统应对能力的提高;万州社会系统应对能力提升主要依靠经济发展、社会保障和社会舆情等因素的改善。因此,建议将社会系统能力建设纳入社会稳定评估范围、加大社会保障体系建设、采取措施推动建设地区经济发展、引入公众参与机制提高群众满意度等,防范和化解重大水利工程社会系统脆弱化和社会稳定风险。

基于PSR模型的我国社会重大风险评估体系研究

基于PSR模型构建我国社会重大风险评估指标体系,根据聚类分析筛选有效指标,用冗余度和变异系数法对筛选后的指标体系进行有效性检验。采用标准离差法、CRITIC法和熵值法分别计算压力、状态和响应维度指标权重,计算不同地区在不同时期的压力指数、状态指数、响应指数和反映我国社会重大风险总体状况的总指数。从时间趋势和空间差异上分析了不同地区的各个指数变动情况。研究表明:一个国家或地区的社会重大风险状况取决于社会系统主体对社会重大风险源和形成的社会重大风险的处理。

水库移民社会风险预警系统初探

在分析移民所受社会风险的基础上，建立了水库移民社会风险预警系统综合指标体系及社会风险预警核心指数，并给出评价方法，以估量移民所受社会风险的程度，最大限度地消除水库移民系统的社会风险．