Risk assessment of transnational oil investment in Central Asia using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Central Asia(including five countries:Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Tajikistan)is rich in oil reserves and has become one of the most important target regions for global oil investment.The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has prompted Central Asia to look outwards for more collaborations in the oil industry.China's need for oil investment in Central Asia has also increased significantly.This research established a comprehensive index system for assessing the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The system incorporated political,regulatory,economic,social,and infrastructural indices.Based on the Delphi method and fuzzy comprehension evaluation method,we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed and analyzed the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The results indicate that the risk score for regulatory risk was highest with the value of 6.1670,indicating a high risk level in transnational oil investment,followed by economic,social,political,and infrastructural risk indices.Of the 18 secondary risk indices calculated,there were seven indices with the probability of high risk occurrence exceeded 30.0%and the descending order was as follows:establishment of mining rights;host country intervention in operations;taxing system;stability of regulations;war and turmoil;labor capital;and ethnic,cultural,and religious differences.These seven critical risks should be watched closely and avoided during transnational oil investment in Central Asia.This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks of investing oil in Central Asia.The findings demonstrate the causes of these risks and provide a scientific basis for reasonably avoiding oil investment risk and improving investment benefits for both host and investing countries.

Factor analysis and countermeasure simulation on the socio-ecological environment risks during the development of coalbed methane:based on the DEMATEL and FCM models

The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the main influential factors of socioecological environmental risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the triangular fuzzy number method,this paper firstly establishes a comprehensive correlation matrix.Then,the affected factors of socio-ecological environmental risks are analyzed by the DEMATEL method during the development of CBM.Then according to the aspects of centrality and causality,the key indicators are determined.Furthermore,the scenario simulation based on the FCM,the steady-state value and the comprehensive importance of key indicators,and the core indicators are selected.Finally,the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure is done.The results show that:①The index weights are calculated by the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the correlation matrix in DEMATEL is obtained by the weight ratio,which reduces the shortcomings and the subjectivity of traditional DEMATEL method.②The correlation matrix in FCM is established based on the comprehensive correlation matrix in the above improved DEMATEL,which not only makes the FCM model more comprehensive and reduces the difficulty that the FCM correlation matrix is obtained considering the indirect influence relationship between indicators,but also makes up for the disadvantages that DEMATEL excludes during the selection of the core indexes,which are the considerations of the dynamic change of the importance of the indicators.③The rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,the pollution index of soil Merlot,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the standard evaluation index of major pollution factors of underground water,and the ability of personal risk prevention are the key indicators,in which the rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,and the reliability of machinery and equipment are the core indicators and are extremely important for the management of socio-ecological environmental risks during the development of coalbed methane.④The results of the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure show that the core variables affect the socio-ecological environmental risks through such indicators as the degree of production mechanization,the degree of demolition and resettlement,and the ratio of economic loss by the influenced mechanism analysis;the ratio of investment in prevention and construction has the greatest impact on the socio-ecological environment risks in the early stage of CMB development,while the rate of forestry and grass coverage is the most important in the middle and late stages by the influenced result analysis.Therefore,this paper puts forward some corresponding stage suggestions on the prevention and control of socio-ecological environmental risks during the CMB development.In the early stage of CMB development,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction should be increased.In the middle stage,it is very important to reduce the damage of vegetation regions and to improve the reliability of machinery and equipment;in the late stage,the investment in prevention and construction should be increased steadily and the recovery of damaged vegetation areas should be focused on.

Delays to Large Construction Projects in Ghana： A Risk Overview

Delay to large scale projects, which is as a result of actions or inactions of some project stakeholders, is becoming a global phenomena and Ghana is no exception. The objective of the research is to identify, rate and rank the most significant risk factors that causes delay on projects and examine the social impact of these delays to recommend modalities to help mitigate these risk factors. The study adopted quantitative methods with the distribution of 144 questionnaires to built environment professionals receiving a response rate of 75.7%. The instrument listed 58 common factors under eight categories that contribute to the causes of delay for respondents to rate. Analysis of data non-parametric test revealed that client, contractor, material and finance category factors significantly resulted in the schedule delay of large infrastructural projects. The survey analysis revealed that micro-factors that result in delays to large construction projects are time constraint, cost overrun, payment problems, dispute and litigation. The research recommended the following modalities to minimize such delays： availability of resources, improved communication and coordination, proper scope definition and feasibilities, utilization of modern technology, appropriate application of technologically based systems and competent project management＇s structures.

Children＇s Problem Behaviors During Free Time as an Incentive for the Increase in Social Risks and Health Risks

Since children, as a rule, have more free time than adults, it is adults＇ responsibility to provide children with a chance to spend the time of relaxation, play, and fun in a beneficial way. Unfortunately, children＇s spare time is nowadays very frequently organized for the sake of brushing up children＇s knowledge, skills, and competences, which is accomplished by means of escalating extra-curriculum activities. When expressed by teacher and parents, these ambition-related attitudes pave the way for the disappearance of children＇s personal interests and motivations to perform complicated tasks which are perceived as unwanted or obscure by the affected children themselves. This form of adults＇ behavior may lead to the feelings of frustration, stress, demotivation, or rebellion on behalf of their children. The said emotional states, especially in relation to the lack of spontaneous play, give rise to serious psychic dysfunctions, and the instability of children＇s psychic balance. It may also pave the way for various forms of destructive behavior that mostly characterize children of younger school age who are about to start schooling.

Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Structural Change in China's Emergency Management: Theoretical Generalizations

From the perspective of systems thinking, China＇s emergency management structure can be analyzed in terms of five dimensions： social change, governance transformation, government framework, policy system and operational mechanisms. On the basis of comparative analysis, we discuss structural change across these dimensions by targeting our research on major disasters in the decade from SARS in 2003 to the Lushan earthquake in 2013. Overall, consolidation and evolution coexist in China＇s emergency management structure. At present, structural consolidation has the upper hand, but there are also forces driving structural evolution. Using inductive logic and the comparative method, we arrive at a theoretical generalization about the structural consolidation of China＇s emergency management, demonstrating its ＂comet-shaped＂ structure and ＂comet-tair＇ effect. On this basis, we put forward our theoretical propositions. We believe that the underlying reason for the developmental predicament facing emergency management in China today is that it goes ahead on its own, divorced from structure. Its further development must go back to structure and change with the times, with a view to promoting the structural evolution of China＇s emergency management.