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A Probabilistic Description of the Impact of Vaccine-Induced Immunity in the Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission
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作者 Javier Blecua Juan Fernández-Recio José Manuel Gutiérrez 《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 2024年第2期59-73,共15页
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has caused millions of deaths worldwide and a huge societal and economic impact in virtually all countries. A large variety of mathematical models to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 t... The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has caused millions of deaths worldwide and a huge societal and economic impact in virtually all countries. A large variety of mathematical models to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission have been reported. Among them, Bayesian probabilistic models of COVID-19 transmission dynamics have been very efficient in the interpretation of early data from the beginning of the pandemic, helping to estimate the impact of non-pharmacological measures in each country, and forecasting the evolution of the pandemic in different potential scenarios. These models use probability distribution curves to describe key dynamic aspects of the transmission, like the probability for every infected person of infecting other individuals, dying or recovering, with parameters obtained from experimental epidemiological data. However, the impact of vaccine-induced immunity, which has been key for controlling the public health emergency caused by the pandemic, has been more challenging to describe in these models, due to the complexity of experimental data. Here we report different probability distribution curves to model the acquisition and decay of immunity after vaccination. We discuss the mathematical background and how these models can be integrated in existing Bayesian probabilistic models to provide a good estimation of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission during the entire pandemic period. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 transmission Dynamics Probabilistic Model Bayesian Analysis Markov Chain Monte Carlo
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Mouth shield to minimize airborne transmission risk of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the dental office
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作者 Mohiddin R Dimashkieh Mohammad Zakaria Nassani +2 位作者 Yousef Fouad Talic Ali Alqerban Amir M Demachkia 《World Journal of Methodology》 2022年第5期461-464,共4页
Transmission of coronavirus disease(COVID-19)and other infectious diseases is a significant risk during dental procedures because most dental interventions involve aerosols or droplets that could contaminate the surro... Transmission of coronavirus disease(COVID-19)and other infectious diseases is a significant risk during dental procedures because most dental interventions involve aerosols or droplets that could contaminate the surrounding environment.Current protection guidelines to address the high risk of droplets,aerosols,and airborne particle transmission of COVID-19 in the dental office recommend minimizing aerosol-generating procedures.In this paper,an innovative mouth shield is presented that should minimize water backsplash from the air-water syringe during dental treatment.The mouth shield can be added to the personal protective equipment to provide the dental team with extra protection.It can be made of different materials,is straightforward,inexpensive,and safe to fabricate,and is easy to use. 展开更多
关键词 Mouth shield transmission DENTISTRY covid-19 AIRBORNE Droplets AEROSOLS Infectious diseases
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Survival and risk analysis of patients with COVID-19 in Iran
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作者 Mottaghipoor F Heidari Z +2 位作者 Sami R Memarzadeh H Saghaeiannejad Isfahani S 《Journal of Acute Disease》 2024年第2期60-66,共7页
Objective:To evaluate the risk factors of death caused by COVID-19 in Iran.Methods:This study was a retrospective cohort study from February 20,2020,to August 22,2022,in the hospitals in Isfahan,Iran.The data were col... Objective:To evaluate the risk factors of death caused by COVID-19 in Iran.Methods:This study was a retrospective cohort study from February 20,2020,to August 22,2022,in the hospitals in Isfahan,Iran.The data were collected through a researcher-made checklist.To determine the risk factors of the death,logistic regression and Cox regression models were used.For each variable,the odds ratio and 95%confidence interval were also reported.Results:1885 Patients were included.The age of deceased persons was significantly higher than that of the surviving persons.The risk of death for the age group above 60 years was about 14 times higher than that of people aged 19-35 years[95%CI:14.41(2.02-102.99),P<0.01].Hypertension[95%CI:1.92(1.47-2.5),P<0.01],diabetes[95%CI:1.62(1.23-2.13),P<0.001],and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease[95%CI:1.92(1.47-2.50),P<0.01]were also risk factors of mortality.Conclusions:This study reveals that the mortality rate due to COVID-19 is associated with old age,longer hospitalization in the ICU,increased length of stay,and comorbidities of high blood pressure,diabetes,and chronic pulmonary disease. 展开更多
关键词 CAUSE DEATH SURVIVAL covid-19 risk factors Iran
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Practice of Infection Prevention and Control Strategies in Risk Departments during the COVID-19 Epidemic
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作者 Minfang Wang Wenyi Ye +7 位作者 Jiefeng Huang Yuexian Zhu Xuxia Yu Hao Huang Fang Xu Bo Jin Ying Yang Tieer Gan 《Advances in Infectious Diseases》 CAS 2024年第1期1-12,共12页
Objective: To explore the practice and application of infection prevention and control strategies in risk departments during the COVID-19 epidemic, and to formulate the infection prevention and control measures to pro... Objective: To explore the practice and application of infection prevention and control strategies in risk departments during the COVID-19 epidemic, and to formulate the infection prevention and control measures to provide advice and guidance in risk departments. Methods: According to the latest plan of diagnosis and treatment, prevention and control issued by the National Health Commission, expert advice and consensus, combined with the actual situation in our hospital, a series of infection prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in risk department was formulated. Results: During the epidemic period, the prevention and control measures of nine risk departments including emergency operation, anesthesiology, endoscopy center, blood purification center, otolaryngology, stomatology, medical imaging department, medical cosmetology department and pulmonary function room were established from six aspects, including pre-examination and screening, medical technology control, personnel management, personal protection, environmental disinfection, medical waste disposal, etc. Conclusion: During the epidemic period, the infection prevention and control strategy of risk departments is one of the key links to control the spread of the epidemic, and risk departments must pay attention to and strictly implement various infection prevention and control measures. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 risk Department Infection Prevention and Control STRATEGY PRACTICE
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The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) outbreak——an update on the status 被引量:149
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作者 Yan-Rong Guo Qing-Dong Cao +6 位作者 Zhong-Si Hong Yuan-Yang Tan Shou-Deng Chen Hong-Jun Jin Kai-Sen Tan De-Yun Wang Yan Yan 《Military Medical Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第1期93-103,共11页
An acute respiratory disease,caused by a novel coronavirus(SARS-CoV-2,previously known as 2019-nCoV),the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has spread throughout China and received worldwide attention.On 30 January 202... An acute respiratory disease,caused by a novel coronavirus(SARS-CoV-2,previously known as 2019-nCoV),the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has spread throughout China and received worldwide attention.On 30 January 2020,World Health Organization(WHO)officially declared the COVID-19 epidemic as a public health emergency of international concern.The emergence of SARS-CoV-2,since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus(SARSCoV)in 2002 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus(MERS-CoV)in 2012,marked the third introduction of a highly pathogenic and large-scale epidemic coronavirus into the human population in the twenty-first century.As of 1 March 2020,a total of 87,137 confirmed cases globally,79,968 confirmed in China and 7169 outside of China,with 2977 deaths(3.4%)had been reported by WHO.Meanwhile,several independent research groups have identified that SARS-CoV-2 belongs toβ-coronavirus,with highly identical genome to bat coronavirus,pointing to bat as the natural host.The novel coronavirus uses the same receptor,angiotensin-converting enzyme 2(ACE2)as that for SARS-CoV,and mainly spreads through the respiratory tract.Importantly,increasingly evidence showed sustained human-tohuman transmission,along with many exported cases across the globe.The clinical symptoms of COVID-19 patients include fever,cough,fatigue and a small population of patients appeared gastrointestinal infection symptoms.The elderly and people with underlying diseases are susceptible to infection and prone to serious outcomes,which may be associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS)and cytokine storm.Currently,there are few specific antiviral strategies,but several potent candidates of antivirals and repurposed drugs are under urgent investigation.In this review,we summarized the latest research progress of the epidemiology,pathogenesis,and clinical characteristics of COVID-19,and discussed the current treatment and scientific advancements to combat the epidemic novel coronavirus. 展开更多
关键词 Clinical characteristics Coronavirus disease 2019(covid-19) ORIGIN SARS-CoV-2 Therapy transmission
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Occupational health risks among healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia: preparing for the future pandemics
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作者 Reham Suliman Al Kharyef Aisha Ali Al Harbi +2 位作者 Mohammed Abdelhamied Genedy Mohamed K.M.Khalil Suliman Mohamed Al Eidi 《Nursing Communications》 2024年第2期1-5,共5页
Background:This study aimed to assess the occupational risks encountered by Healthcare Workers(HCWs)in Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods:A cross-sectional survey was carried out from May to October 202... Background:This study aimed to assess the occupational risks encountered by Healthcare Workers(HCWs)in Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods:A cross-sectional survey was carried out from May to October 2021.Using a multi-stage stratified random sampling technique,an online questionnaire was sent to the recruited HCWs,across Saudi Arabia.Results:Of the 768 HCWs recruited,702 participated in the survey.A significant majority(over 80%)reported working beyond 8 hours daily.COVID-19 infection,confirmed via PCR,was identified in 25%of the participants.Notably,infection was significantly correlated with direct or close contact(p=0.0007).Psychological distress was reported by 81%,with anxiety being the most prevalent(33%),followed by stress(19%),depression(17%),and insomnia(12%).Around 20%experienced headaches post-PPE use,while 14%reported adverse skin reactions,predominantly allergy and dermatitis.A concerning one-third of respondents reported exposure to violence.Conclusion:High infection rate,physical and psychological risks among HCWs especially those in direct contact with patients,reflect the need for enhancing the entirety of outbreak preparedness and response,specifically training.Active surveillance system,is crucial to adequately monitor and support HCWs during pandemic scenarios. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 PANDEMIC healthcare worker risk Saudi Arabia
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Perceived infection transmission routes, infection control practices, psychosocial changes, and management of COVID-19 infected healthcare workers in a tertiary acute care hospital in Wuhan: a cross-sectional survey 被引量:12
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作者 Ying-Hui Jin Qiao Huang +15 位作者 Yun-Yun Wang Xian-Tao Zeng Li-Sha Luo Zhen-Yu Pan Yu-Feng Yuan Zhi-Min Chen Zhen-Shun Cheng Xing Huang Na Wang Bing-Hui Li Hao Zi Ming-Juan Zhao Lin-Lu Ma Tong Deng Ying Wang Xing-Huan Wang 《Military Medical Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第4期418-429,共12页
Background:Many healthcare workers were infected by coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)early in the epidemic posing a big challenge for epidemic control.Hence,this study aims to explore perceived infection routes,influ... Background:Many healthcare workers were infected by coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)early in the epidemic posing a big challenge for epidemic control.Hence,this study aims to explore perceived infection routes,influencing factors,psychosocial changes,and management procedures for COVID-19 infected healthcare workers.Methods:This is a cross-sectional,single hospital-based study.We recruited all 105 confirmed COVID-19 healthcare workers in the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from February 15 to 29,2020.All participants completed a validated questionnaire.Electronic consent was obtained from all participants.Perceived causes of infection,infection prevention,control knowledge and behaviour,psychological changes,symptoms and treatment were measured.Results:Finally,103 professional staff with COVID-19 finished the questionnaire and was included(response rate:98.1%).Of them,87 cases(84.5%)thought they were infected in working environment in hospital,one(1.0%)thought their infection was due to the laboratory environment,and 5(4.9%)thought they were infected in daily life or community environment.Swab of throat collection and physical examination were the procedures perceived as most likely causing their infection by nurses and doctors respectively.Forty-three(41.8%)thought their infection was related to protective equipment,utilization of common equipment(masks and gloves).The top three first symptoms displayed before diagnosis were fever(41.8%),lethargy(33.0%)and muscle aches(30.1%).After diagnosis,88.3%staff experienced psychological stress or emotional changes during their isolation period,only 11.7%had almost no emotional changes.Arbidol(Umifenovir;an anti-influza drug;69.2%)was the drug most commonly used to target infection in mild and moderate symptoms.Conclusion:The main perceived mode of transmission was not maintaining protection when working at a close distance and having intimate contact with infected cases.Positive psychological intervention is necessary. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 2019-nCoV Healthcare worker Healthcare professional Infection transmission route Psychosocial status
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Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review 被引量:4
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作者 Jinxing Guan Yongyue Wei +1 位作者 Yang Zhao Feng Chen 《The Journal of Biomedical Research》 CAS CSCD 2020年第6期422-430,I0001-I0013,共22页
The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern.A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological pa... The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern.A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological parameters,explore and project the trends of the COVID-19,and assess the effects of intervention or control measures.We identified 63 studies and summarized the three aspects of these studies:epidemiological parameters estimation,trend prediction,and control measure evaluation.Despite the discrepancy between the predictions and the actuals,the dynamic model has made great contributions in the above three aspects.The most important role of dynamic models is exploring possibilities rather than making strong predictions about longer-term disease dynamics. 展开更多
关键词 CORONAVIRUS covid-19 EPIDEMIOLOGY MODELING transmission dynamic MODEL SEIR MODEL SIR MODEL
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Assessment of COVID-19 aerosol transmission in a university campus food environment using a numerical method 被引量:3
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作者 M.Zhao C.Zhou +3 位作者 T.Chan C.Tu Y.Liu M.Yu 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第6期265-278,共14页
With the prevalence of COVID-19,the phenomenon of viruses spreading through aerosols has become a focus of attention.Diners in university dining halls have a high risk of exposure to respiratory droplets from others w... With the prevalence of COVID-19,the phenomenon of viruses spreading through aerosols has become a focus of attention.Diners in university dining halls have a high risk of exposure to respiratory droplets from others without the protection of face masks,which greatly increases the risk of COVID-19 transmission.Therefore,the transmission mechanism of respiratory droplets in extremely crowded dining environments should be investigated.In this study,a numerical simulation of coughing at dining tables under two conditions was performed,namely the presence and absence of protective partitions,and the evaporation and condensation of aerosol droplets in the air were examined.By using the numerical method,we analyzed and verified the isolation effect of dining table partitions in the propagation of aerosol droplets.The effect of changes in room temperature on the diffusion of coughed aerosols when partitions were present was analyzed.We demonstrated how respiratory droplets spread through coughing and how these droplets affect others.Finally,we proposed a design for a dining table partition that minimizes the transmission of COVID-19. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 transmission University dining hall COUGH Table partition Computational fluid dynamics
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Eliminating Mother-to-Child Transmission of Syphilis: Chinese Practice before and during COVID-19 Pandemics 被引量:2
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作者 Fangzhi Du Ruili Zhang Qianqiu Wang 《Chinese Medical Sciences Journal》 CAS CSCD 2022年第1期67-72,共6页
Mother-to-child transmission(MTCT)of syphilis remains a leading cause of stillbirth and death among neonates in many developing countries.In 2007,World Health Orgernization launched the global elimination of MTCT(EMTC... Mother-to-child transmission(MTCT)of syphilis remains a leading cause of stillbirth and death among neonates in many developing countries.In 2007,World Health Orgernization launched the global elimination of MTCT(EMTCT)of syphilis.Given the high burden of congenital syphilis,China subsequently released the specific national EMTCT policies and programs to reduce MTCT of syphilis.The congenital syphilis incidence rate per 100,000 live births in China has markedly decreased from 69.9 in 2013 to 11.9 in 2019.However,due to the global pandemic of COVID-19,the current measures for eliminating MTCT of syphilis are greatly challenged.In this article,we summarize the strategies and measures for the EMTCT of syphilis in China in the past 20 years,the remarkable achievements by the policy support under the leadership of the government.In the context of COVID-19 pandemics,strengthening emergency response to the regional outbreaks of COVID-19,adopting safe,rapid,early and high-quality clinical care for 100%of pregnant women to receive prenatal syphilis testing services,ensuring the availability of Benzathine penicillin for the treatment,and strengthening the closed-loop management of pregnant women and newborns infected with syphilis are the key measures to determine the effectiveness of MTCT for syphilis.Lessons from China may be valuable for other countries that are planning to eliminate MTCT of syphilis. 展开更多
关键词 mother-to-child transmission SYPHILIS covid-19 China
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Awareness about transmission and preventive measures of COVID-19 from mother to child: A cross-sectional study among pregnant women
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作者 Neetu Singh Sugandha Jauhari 《Asian pacific Journal of Reproduction》 2022年第6期261-268,共8页
Objective:To study the knowledge,attitude,and practice of pregnant women regarding transmission and preventive measures of COVID-19 from mother to child and to determine the reasons for vaccine hesitancy.Methods:This ... Objective:To study the knowledge,attitude,and practice of pregnant women regarding transmission and preventive measures of COVID-19 from mother to child and to determine the reasons for vaccine hesitancy.Methods:This observational cross-sectional knowledge,attitude,and practice study was conducted among pregnant women of any trimester,attending the antenatal care out-patient department of a tertiary care hospital in Lucknow from October 2020 to March 2021.All the participants were interviewed using a pretested semi-structured questionnaire for desired information.Reasons for vaccine hesitancy were also asked to assess their unwillingness to get vaccinated.Results:Totally 652 pregnant women were included and 91.3%were aware that COVID-19 spread through contact with an infected person and 85.3%knew that COVID-19 spread by respiratory droplets.Of pregnant women,95.7%perceived that social distancing and wearing a proper mask were effective ways to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and 96.8%of the pregnant women wore masks regularly when going out.Of pregnant women,79.0%were hesitant to get vaccinated.The most common reason was that COVID-19 vaccine can harm the developing fetus(77.5%)and was not very safe in pregnancy(75.0%).Conclusions:Of the pregnant women,22.92%have unsatisfactory knowledge regarding COVID-19,35.63%have negative attitude and 19.93%have poor practices,indicating that there are still gaps in awareness,and majority of them are unwilling to get vaccinated.Good awareness will help prevent the occurrence of future COVID-19 waves in India. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 Pregnant women AWARENESS transmission Preventive measures Vaccine hesitancy
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Dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 cases and household contacts:A prospective cohort study
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作者 Priyanka Rajmohan Ponnu Jose +5 位作者 Jubina Bency Anthoora Thodi Joe Thomas Lucy Raphael Swathi Krishna Unnikrishnan Uttumadathil Gopinathan Praveenlal Kuttichira 《Journal of Acute Disease》 2021年第4期162-168,共7页
Objective:To study the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)among 101 confirmed cases and their 387 household contacts and to determine risk factors associated with secondary attack among the hou... Objective:To study the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)among 101 confirmed cases and their 387 household contacts and to determine risk factors associated with secondary attack among the household contacts.Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted from January 1st 2021 to February 28th 2021,among 101 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 387 household contacts who were followed up for 14 days from the last day of contact with the index case of COVID-19.The dynamics of disease transmission was estimated,and factors affecting transmission risk were analyzed.Besides,the association between various factors and household secondary attack rate was determined.Results:The median incubation period was found to be 5 days,and the observed reproductive number(R)was found to be 1.63(95%CI:1.28-1.98).The mean household secondary attack rate was 40.7%.Contacts with comorbidities like diabetes mellitus,hypertension,dyslipidemia,and hypothyroidism had significantly higher attack rates(P<0.05).Conclusions:As new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emerges,it is crucial to know the trasmission dynamics.This study shows a high secondary attack rate of COVID-19 among household contacts that must be closely monitored. 展开更多
关键词 DYNAMICS transmission covid-19 KERALA Prospective cohort
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Prediction of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States Using Google Search Trends
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作者 Meshrif Alruily Mohamed Ezz +3 位作者 Ayman Mohamed Mostafa Nacim Yanes Mostafa Abbas Yasser El-Manzalawy 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2022年第4期1751-1768,共18页
Accurate forecasting of emerging infectious diseases can guide public health officials in making appropriate decisions related to the allocation of public health resources.Due to the exponential spread of the COVID-19... Accurate forecasting of emerging infectious diseases can guide public health officials in making appropriate decisions related to the allocation of public health resources.Due to the exponential spread of the COVID-19 infection worldwide,several computational models for forecasting the transmission and mortality rates of COVID-19 have been proposed in the literature.To accelerate scientific and public health insights into the spread and impact of COVID-19,Google released the Google COVID-19 search trends symptoms open-access dataset.Our objective is to develop 7 and 14-day-ahead forecasting models of COVID-19 transmission and mortality in the US using the Google search trends for COVID-19 related symptoms.Specifically,we propose a stacked long short-term memory(SLSTM)architecture for predicting COVID-19 confirmed and death cases using historical time series data combined with auxiliary time series data from the Google COVID-19 search trends symptoms dataset.Considering the SLSTM networks trained using historical data only as the base models,our base models for 7 and 14-day-ahead forecasting of COVID cases had the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)values of 6.6%and 8.8%,respectively.On the other side,our proposed models had improved MAPE values of 3.2%and 5.6%,respectively.For 7 and 14-day-ahead forecasting of COVID-19 deaths,the MAPE values of the base models were 4.8%and 11.4%,while the improved MAPE values of our proposed models were 4.7%and 7.8%,respectively.We found that the Google search trends for“pneumonia,”“shortness of breath,”and“fever”are the most informative search trends for predicting COVID-19 transmission.We also found that the search trends for“hypoxia”and“fever”were the most informative trends for forecasting COVID-19 mortality. 展开更多
关键词 Forecasting covid-19 transmission and mortality in the US stacked LSTM SARS-COV-2 and google covid-19 search trends
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COVID-19 in the endoscopy unit:How likely is transmission of infection?Results from an international,multicenter study
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作者 Ioannis S Papanikolaou Georgios Tziatzios +16 位作者 Alexandros Chatzidakis Antonio Facciorusso Stefano Francesco Crinò Paraskevas Gkolfakis Gjorgi Deriban Mario Tadic Goran Hauser Antonios Vezakis Ivan Jovanovic Nicola Muscatiello Anna Meneghetti Konstantinos Miltiadou Kalina Stardelova Alojzije Lacković Maria-Zoi Bourou Srdjan Djuranovic Konstantinos Triantafyllou 《World Journal of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy》 2021年第9期416-425,共10页
BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)significantly affected endoscopy practice,as gastrointestinal endoscopy is considered a risky procedure for transmission of infection to patients and personnel of endoscopy... BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)significantly affected endoscopy practice,as gastrointestinal endoscopy is considered a risky procedure for transmission of infection to patients and personnel of endoscopy units(PEU).AIM To assess the impact of COVID-19 on endoscopy during the first European lockdown(March-May 2020).METHODS Patients undergoing endoscopy in nine endoscopy units across six European countries during the period of the first European lockdown for COVID-19(March-May 2020)were included.Prior to the endoscopy procedure,participants were stratified as low-or high-risk for potential COVID-19 infection according to the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy(ESGE)and the European Society of Gastroenterology and Endoscopy Nurses and Associates(ESGENA)joint statement,and contacted 7-14 d later to assess COVID-19 infection status.PEU were questioned regarding COVID-19 symptoms and/or infection via questionnaire,while information regarding hospitalizations,intensive care unitadmissions and COVID-19-related deaths were collected.The number of weekly endoscopies at each center during the lockdown period was also recorded.RESULTS A total of 1267 endoscopies were performed in 1222 individuals across nine European endoscopy departments in six countries.Eighty-seven(7%)were excluded because of initial positive testing.Of the 1135 pre-endoscopy low risk or polymerase chain reaction negative for COVID-19,254(22.4%)were tested post endoscopy and 8 were eventually found positive,resulting in an infection rate of 0.7%[95%CI:0.2-0.12].The majority(6 of the 8 patients,75%)had undergone esophagogastroduodenoscopy.Of the 163 PEU,5[3%;(95%CI:0.4-5.7)]tested positive during the study period.A decrease of 68.7%(95%CI:64.8-72.7)in the number of weekly endoscopies was recorded in all centers after March 2020.All centers implemented appropriate personal protective measures(PPM)from the initial phases of the lockdown.CONCLUSION COVID-19 transmission in endoscopy units is highly unlikely in a lockdown setting,provided endoscopies are restricted to emergency cases and PPM are implemented. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 Gastrointestinal endoscopy Personal protection measures transmission Lockdown
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Real-Time COVID-19 Forecasting for Four States of India Using a Regression Transmission Model
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作者 Lincoln Priyadarshi Choudhury B. Ranjeeth Kumar 《Open Journal of Epidemiology》 2020年第4期335-345,共11页
<strong>Introduction:</strong> More than a million people are reported to have been infected with COVID in India, since the beginning of the pandemic. However, the epidemic is not the same across the count... <strong>Introduction:</strong> More than a million people are reported to have been infected with COVID in India, since the beginning of the pandemic. However, the epidemic is not the same across the country. Though there are state-level variations rapidly changing disease dynamics and the response has created uncertainty towards appropriate use of models to project for the future. <strong>Method:</strong> This paper aims at using a validated semi-mechanistic stochastic model to generate short term forecasts. This analysis used data available at the respective state government bulletins for four states. The analysis used a simplified transmission model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with Metropolis-Hastings updating. <strong>Results:</strong> Two weeks were used to compare the results with the actual data. The forecasted results are well within the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of the actual cases reported by the respective states. The results indicate a reliable method for a real-time short term forecasting of COVID-19 cases. The 1st week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases for the state of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha were (1064 - 2532) 2234, (17,503 - 50,125) 27,214, (5225 - 11,003) 9563, (2559 - 4461) 3925, respectively. Similarly, the 2<sup>nd</sup> week projected interquartile range and actual;reported cases were (1055 - 7803) 4221, (18,298 - 73,952) 31,488, (4705 - 23,224) 13,357, (2701 - 9037) 4175 respectively. <strong>Conclusion:</strong> This real-time forecast can be used as an early warning tool for projecting the changes in the epidemic in the near future triggering proactive management steps. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 Forecasting Regression transmission Epidemic Model
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Discussion on Maxing Ganshi Decoction in the Treatment of COVID-19 Based on Triple Energizer Transmission Theory
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作者 Fang-Min Chen Ying-Chang Fu +5 位作者 Xue-Feng Jiang Yi-Gui Lai Qiang Wang Shen Ye Ye-Jian Hu Fang-Hua Yang 《Microenvironment & Microecology Research》 2021年第1期5-11,共7页
COVID-19 is caused by novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV),which has the characteristics of strong infectivity,rapid onset and rapid spread.It is popular in China and other parts of the world,and there are no special drugs at... COVID-19 is caused by novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV),which has the characteristics of strong infectivity,rapid onset and rapid spread.It is popular in China and other parts of the world,and there are no special drugs at present.This disease belongs to the category of plague in traditional Chinese medicine.Combined with the theory of triple energizer transmission in Yang Lishan's"Identification of Warm Disease",the confirmed case in our hospital was analyzed,and it was found that pathogenic qi entered from nose and mouth,injected into middle energizer,and then distributed in upper and lower energizer.The pathogenic qi is mainly diffused in the middle and upper energizer.Modified Maxing Ganshi decoction has a good effect. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 TRIPLE ENERGIZER transmission THEORY Maxing Ganshi DECOCTION Case report
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Decoding the evolution and transmissions of the novel pneumonia coronavirus(SARS-CoV-2/HCoV-19)using whole genomic data 被引量:29
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作者 Wen-Bin Yu Guang-Da Tang +1 位作者 Li Zhang Richard T.Corlett 《Zoological Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第3期247-257,共11页
The outbreak of COVID-19 started in mid-December2019 in Wuhan, China. Up to 29 February 2020,SARS-CoV-2(HCoV-19/2019-nCoV) had infected more than 85 000 people in the world. In this study,we used 93 complete genomes o... The outbreak of COVID-19 started in mid-December2019 in Wuhan, China. Up to 29 February 2020,SARS-CoV-2(HCoV-19/2019-nCoV) had infected more than 85 000 people in the world. In this study,we used 93 complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 from the GISAID EpiFlu TM database to investigate the evolution and human-to-human transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 in the first two months of the outbreak.We constructed haplotypes of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes, performed phylogenomic analyses and estimated the potential population size changes of the virus. The date of population expansion was calculated based on the expansion parameter tau(τ)using the formula t=τ/2 u. A total of 120 substitution sites with 119 codons, including 79 non-synonymous and 40 synonymous substitutions, were found in eight coding-regions in the SARS-CoV-2 genomes.Forty non-synonymous substitutions are potentially associated with virus adaptation. No combinations were detected. The 58 haplotypes(31 found in samples from China and 31 from outside China)were identified in 93 viral genomes under study and could be classified into five groups. By applying the reported bat coronavirus genome(bat-RaTG13-CoV)as the outgroup, we found that haplotypes H13 and H38 might be considered as ancestral haplotypes,and later H1 was derived from the intermediate haplotype H3. The population size of the SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to have undergone a recent expansion on 06 January 2020, and an early expansion on 08 December 2019. Furthermore,phyloepidemiologic approaches have recovered specific directions of human-to-human transmissions and the potential sources for international infected cases. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 HCoV-19 SARS-CoV-2 Novel pneumonia outbreak Human-to-human transmission Phyloepidemiology
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Clinical characteristics and risk factors for liver injury in COVID-19 patients in Wuhan 被引量:8
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作者 Hu Zhang Yu-Sheng Liao +2 位作者 Jing Gong Jing Liu Heng Zhang 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2020年第31期4694-4702,共9页
BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.We investigated the clinical characteristics and risk factors for liver injury in COVID-19 patients in Wuhan by retrospectively analyzing th... BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.We investigated the clinical characteristics and risk factors for liver injury in COVID-19 patients in Wuhan by retrospectively analyzing the epidemiological,clinical,and laboratory data for 218 COVID-19 patients and identifying the risk factors for liver injury by multivariate analysis.AIM To investigate the clinical characteristics and risk factors for liver injury in COVID-19 patients in Wuhan.METHODS The 218 patients included 94 males(43.1%),aged 22 to 94(50.1±18.4)years.Elevated aspartate aminotransferase(AST)and alanine aminotransferase(ALT)were present in 42(53.2%)and 36(45.6%)cases,respectively,and 79(36.2%)patients had abnormally elevated transaminase levels at admission.Patients with liver injury were older than those with normal liver function by a median of 12 years,with a significantly higher frequency of males(68.4%vs 28.8%,P<0.001)and more coexisting illnesses(48.1%vs 27.3%,P=0.002).Significantly more patients had fever and shortness of breath(87.3%vs 69.8%and 29.1%vs 14.4%,respectively)in the liver injury group.Only 12(15.2%)patients had elevated total bilirubin.ALT and AST levels were mildly elevated[1-3×upper limit of normal(ULN)]in 86.1%and 92.9%of cases,respectively.Only two(2.5%)patients had an ALT or AST level>5×ULN.Elevatedγ-glutamyl transpeptidase was present in 45(57.0%)patients,and 86.7%of these had aγ-glutamyl-transpeptidase level<135 U/L(3×ULN).Serum alkaline phosphatase levels were almost normal in all patients.Patients with severe liver injury had a significantly higher frequency of abnormal transaminases than non-severe patients,but only one case had very high levels of aminotransferases.RESULTS Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex,high D-dimer level,and high neutrophil percentage were linked to a higher risk of liver injury.The early stage of COVID-19 may be associated with mildly elevated aminotransferase levels in patients in Wuhan.Male sex and high D-dimer level and neutrophil percentage may be important predictors of liver injury in patients with COVID-19.CONCLUSION Male sex and high D-dimer level and neutrophil percentage may be important predictors of liver injury in patients with COVID-19. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 Liver injury Clinical characteristics risk factors
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Characteristics of hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 and their hospital management
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作者 Lely Indrawati Dwi Hapsari Tjandrarini +4 位作者 Ning Sulistiyowati Tin Afifah Astridya Paramita Felly Philipus Senewe Pandji Wibawa Dhewantara 《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》 SCIE CAS 2024年第3期129-135,共7页
Objective:To determine the risk factors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.Methods:This retrospective study used hospitalization records collected by the Indonesia Health Social Security Administrator A... Objective:To determine the risk factors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.Methods:This retrospective study used hospitalization records collected by the Indonesia Health Social Security Administrator Agency(Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial Kesehatan-BPJS Kesehatan).A total of 38277 eligible patients with confirmed COVID-19 were analyzed.The dependent variable of the study was the discharge status(death or recovery)of COVID-19.Independent variables were history of morbidity and disease-related occurrence,type of room health facilities,length of stay and demographic variables(sex,age).The analyses use bivariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine the dominating variable associated with all these variables.Results:Of the 38277 inpatients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19,31051(81.1%)were discharged and 7226(18.9%)died.Risk of death was positively associated with older age(aOR 5.74,95%CI 4.20-7.87 for 19-64 years old;aOR 13.75,95%CI 9.99-18.92 for 65 years above),male sex(aOR 1.13,95%CI 1.07-1.19),treated in ICU without ventilator(aOR 5.84,95%CI 5.41-6.30)and had comorbid respiratory diseases(aOR 5.39,95%CI 4.93-5.90),but negatively associated with hospital stay of 15 days or longer(aOR 0.39,95%CI 0.36-0.43).Conclusions:COVID-19 related death during hospitalization was associated with duration and type of treatment,and existing medical condition among the inpatient individuals during COVID-19 pandemic in DKI Jakarta.The findings of the study suggest importance of appropriate and timely medical intervention and care. 展开更多
关键词 INPATIENTS covid-19 DEATH risk of factors Indonesia
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Expression level of interferon-stimulated genes PKR,OAS1,MX1,and ISG15 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of COVID-19 patients:A retrospective study
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作者 Elham Jafari Maskouni Samaneh Abbasi +4 位作者 Elham Mousavi Zahra Najafimemar Ali Mohammad Arabzadeh Mehrdad Farrokhnia Saeedeh Ebrahimi 《Journal of Acute Disease》 2024年第3期111-115,共5页
Objective:To explore expression level of interferon-stimulated genes PKR,OAS1,MX1,and ISG15 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of COVID-19 patients.Methods:In this study,changes in the expression of four interferon... Objective:To explore expression level of interferon-stimulated genes PKR,OAS1,MX1,and ISG15 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of COVID-19 patients.Methods:In this study,changes in the expression of four interferon-stimulated genes(ISGs),including PKR,OAS1,MX1,and ISG15,in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 45 COVID-19 patients with different severities were evaluated by real-time PCR method.Results:OAS1,MX1,PKR,and ISG15 were differently expressed in COVID-19 patients with different severity.The results showed that the expression of OAS1,MX1,PKR,and ISG15 genes was significantly(P=0.001)lower in severe patients.Conclusions:Weak and defective IFN response and subsequent disruption of ISGs may be associated with COVID-19 severity. 展开更多
关键词 covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 INTERFERON ISGs Severe covid-19 risk factors Interferon signaling
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