New technologies for high-risk tunnel construction in GuiyangGuangzhou high-speed railway

Based on the construction of high risk tunnels in Guiguang-Guangzhou high-speed railway, several new technologies were developed for high-risk tunnel con- struction. First, an integrated advanced geological predic- tion was developed for tunneling in karst area. Then, a new system of ventilation by involving the dedusting technol- ogy was proposed and used in the field, which received a good air quality. Finally, a method to minimize the dis- tance between the working face and the invert installation was proposed by optimizing the invert installation and adopting the micro bench method. Applying the method to the project obtained an excellent result. The achievement obtained for this study would be able to provide a valuable reference to similar projects in the future.

Developing a risk assessment system for gas tunnel disasters in China

Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.

Seismic risk evaluation for a planning mountain tunnel using improved analytical hierarchy process based on extension theory

Seismic risk evaluation(SRE) in early stages(e.g., project planning and preliminary design)for a mountain tunnel located in seismic areas has the same importance as that in final stages(e.g.,performance-based design, structural analysis, and optimization). SRE for planning mountain tunnels bridges the gap between the planning on the macro level and the design/analysis on the micro level regarding the risk management of infrastructural systems. A transition from subjective or qualitative description to objective or quantitative quantification of seismic risk is aimed to improve the seismic behavior of the mountain tunnel and thus reduce the associated seismic risk. A new method of systematic SRE for the planning mountain tunnel was presented herein. The method employs extension theory(ET)and an ET-based improved analytical hierarchy process. Additionally, a new risk-classification criterion is proposed to classify and quantify the seismic risk for a planning mountain tunnel. This SRE method is applied to a mountain tunnel in southwest China, using the extension model based on matter element theory and dependent function operation.The reasonability and flexibility of the SRE method for application to the mountain tunnel are illustrated.According to different seismic risk levels and classification criteria, methods and measures for improving the seismic design are proposed, which can reduce the seismic risk and provide a frame of reference for elaborate seismic design.

Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel usinga quantitative risk approach

With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades,there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design.While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters,with the advent of reliability-based methods,this no longer needs to be the case.Instead,a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads.This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk.This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece.Along this section of tunnel,weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions,which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support.Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine,in hindsight,the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure.Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational experience of similar projects, the study of generic guidance on hazards associated with the type of work being undertaken, and discussions with qualified and experienced staff from the project team, etc., the specific risks during the construction process of the metro station constructed by enlarging shield tunnels combined with the cut-and-cover method are identified. The results show that the specific risks mainly come from three construction processes which include constructing upper enclosure structures, excavating the soil between shield tunnels and demolishing shield segments. Then relevant risk mitigation measures are put forward. The results can provide references for scheme improvement and a comprehensive risk assessment of the new-style construction method.

隧道施工中塌方风险耦合评估方法研究

为提高隧道施工塌方风险评估准确率,考虑评估的多指标性与耦合性特点,提出了一种基于风险耦合的隧道施工塌方风险评估方法。首先,通过事故统计分析确定14个塌方风险指标,并确定各指标风险等级阈值,建立了隧道塌方风险评价指标体系;然后,使用层次分析法与K-均值算法的组合权重计算方法确定评价指标权重,采用概率密度函数确定各指标等级隶属度;最后,通过耦合度公式计算指标间的耦合度,建立隧道施工塌方风险耦合评估模型。将建立的模型应用于某输水隧道的施工塌方风险评估,评估结果与实际情况基本吻合,验证了评估方法的合理性与可行性,为隧道施工塌方风险评估提供了新思路。

公路隧道运营韧性研究进展

以韧性理念为核心的系统安全分析范式,为现代公路隧道运营安全管理提供科学而务实的新视角。为深入理解韧性理念,首先结合国内外不同工程领域对韧性研究的进展,梳理总结出以下2点共识:1)韧性是一种综合性能力,着眼于系统全过程的表现;2)韧性包含一系列特征属性,可用鲁棒性、冗余性、资源充裕度、快速性囊括。鉴于经典风险分析于公路隧道运营安全管理的部分局限性,探讨引入韧性视角的必要性和意义。进而定义公路隧道运营韧性,即为对影响公路隧道正常运营通行的实际或潜在负面效应,进行预防、抵抗、适应、恢复的能力,并分析全阶段性、动态演进性和量化客观性的内涵,构建初步的概念框架。再提出基于感知、响应、学习和预测4种功能来增强隧道运营韧性的路径以及初步的韧性提升措施。特别地,针对火灾风险,介绍相关的智能技术与装备案例,包括智能火灾检测、火灾预测技术和隧道入口的柔性阻拦系统等。未来,对公路隧道运营韧性的研究将不断深化,通过构建全面的理论框架,以指导实践并推动隧道运营安全管理的科学化、系统化发展,从而建立更安全、高效、可持续的隧道运营体系。

基于云模型的某近间距盾构隧道施工风险评估案例研究

相较于一般的盾构施工,近间距盾构施工中后行隧道施工不仅难度大、风险高,还会造成既有隧道的结构变形和位移,降低既有隧道的安全性,因此需要对近间距盾构施工进行风险识别和评估,为制定控制措施提供支持。依托某市轨道交通七号线三阳路过江超大直径隧道近间距盾构施工实例,根据其工程特点归纳出典型风险指标,并基于熵权法计算指标权重,采用云模型评估方法对各个风险进行评估。实际施工中结合评估等级采取针对性措施,保证了工程施工安全,同时也验证了此方法的有效性和可行性,可为类似工程风险评估提供参考。

基于故障树和贝叶斯网络的管廊运维风险评估

城市地下综合管廊在运维过程中事故时有发生,为了量化管廊运维风险并分析关键风险因素,提出一种基于故障树和模糊贝叶斯网络的城市地下综合管廊运维风险评估方法。在综合考虑管廊风险因素的基础上构建故障树模型,将其映射为贝叶斯网络。基于ALARP准则划分风险因素状态等级,根据模糊数和模糊子集计算底事件的发生概率,利用最大似然估计法求解中间事件的条件概率,构建管廊运维风险贝叶斯网络模型,精准评估城市地下综合管廊运维风险。结果表明:所评估的管廊运维过程风险等级为High的概率为28%,接近30%的风险阈值,因此需要及时对管廊风险进行管控。该方法能够科学、合理地评价风险水平并确定关键因素,可为管廊运维安全保障和管理提供参考。

未确知测度理论在盾构下穿既有隧道安全风险评价中的应用

盾构下穿既有隧道工程施工通常存在较大风险,为了对风险等级做出准确有效的评价,提出了基于未确知测度理论的盾构下穿既有隧道安全风险评价模型。首先,通过对相关规范和现有文献的研究,并结合盾构下穿隧道施工的特点,构建了盾构下穿既有隧道安全风险评价指标体系,包括盾构掘进参数、新建隧道条件、既有隧道条件、地质条件和施工管理条件5个一级指标,以及掘进速度、掘进推力、注浆压力等19个二级指标;其次,将综合安全风险划分为5个等级,并明确了各指标的等级划分标准;然后基于熵权-未确知测度理论构建盾构下穿既有隧道安全风险评价模型,采用熵权法确定指标权重,根据未确知测度理论构建各指标的单指标未确知测度函数,将各指标数据值代入单指标未确知测度函数中得到单指标测度评价矩阵,结合指标权重和单指标测度评价矩阵计算得到多指标测度评价向量,依照置信度准则确定安全风险等级;最后,将提出的模型应用于实际盾构下穿既有隧道工程中,对其进行安全风险等级评价。结果表明,模型评价结果与实际风险等级一致,并通过与模糊层析分析法对比验证了所提模型应用于工程实践的有效性,研究结果可为实际施工安全管理提供决策支持。

基于改进N-K模型的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合研究

为预防和控制地铁盾构掘进施工过程中的关键安全风险,并精准判断哪些风险耦合情境是导致事故发生的显著情境,提出改进N-K模型研究地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合;综合运用文献研究、事故案例、专家访谈等方法,辨识地铁盾构掘进的关键安全风险因素;基于N-K模型提出新的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合评估模型,并选用安全事故案例验证该模型的适用性。结果表明:辨识得到地铁盾构掘进关键安全风险因素清单,包括4类一级风险因素,21个二级风险因素;地铁盾构掘进施工安全风险随着耦合因素种类的增加而变大,4因素风险耦合值最高,3因素风险耦合值次之,双因素风险耦合值最低,作业人员安全意识薄弱和机械故障参与作用的耦合情境更容易发生安全事故。

湿陷性黄土区输水隧洞盾构施工风险评估

为了提高针对湿陷性黄土区输水隧洞盾构法施工安全评估的可靠性,从人员管理、机械材料、施工技术、施工环境4个方面构建较为完善的施工安全风险评估指标体系;利用灰色-DEMATEL方法对中心度进行处理得到风险指标权重;以风险发生概率和风险损失程度两个维度为基础构建二维云评估模型,其中发生概率由主、客观方法相结合来确定,损失程度通过改进雷达图法从人员伤亡、经济损失、工期延误、功能缺陷和环境影响5个方面来综合确定。将该评估模型运用到引汉济渭工程X输水隧洞盾构法施工项目的安全评估中。结果表明:该项目施工风险评估等级为Ⅱ级,施工安全风险程度较小,评价结果符合工程实际,验证了该评估模型的可行性和有效性。研究成果可为湿陷性黄土区类似输水隧洞盾构法施工安全风险评估提供借鉴和参考。

Reducing risk in long deep tunnels by using TBM and drill-and-blast methods in the same project-the hybrid solution

There are many examples of TBM tunnels through mountains, or in mountainous terrain, which have suffered the ultimate fate of abandonment, due to insufficient pre-investigation. Depth-of-drilling limitations are inevitable when depths approach or even exceed l or 2 km. Uncertainties about the geology, hydro-geology, rock stresses and rock strengths go hand-in-hand with deep or ultra-deep tunnels. Unfortunately, unexpected conditions tend to have a much bigger impact on TBM projects than on drill-and-blast projects. There are two obvious reasons. Firstly the circular excavation maximizes the tangential stress, making the relation to rock strength a higher source of potential risk. Secondly, the TBM may have been progressing fast enough to make probe-drilling seem to be unnecessary. If the stress-to-strength ratio becomes too high, or if faulted rock with high water pressure is unexpectedly encountered, the ＂unexpected events＂ may have a remarkable delaying effect on TBM. A simple equation explains this phenomenon, via the adverse local Q-value that links directly to utilization. One may witness dramatic reductions in utilization, meaning ultra-steep deceleration-of-the-TBM gradients in a log-log plot of advance rate versus time. Some delays can be avoided or reduced with new TBM designs, where belief in the need for probe-drilling and sometimes also pre-injection, have been fully appreciated. Drill-and-blast tunneling, inevitably involving numerous ＂probe-holes＂ prior to each advance, should be used instead, if investigations have been too limited. TBM should be used where there is lower cover and where more is known about the rock and structural conditions. The advantages of the superior speed of TBM may then be fully realized. Choosing TBM because a tunnel is very long increases risk due to the law of deceleration with increased length, especially if there is limited pre-investigation because of tunnel depth.

故障树和模糊贝叶斯网络在管廊运维风险评估中的应用研究

地下综合管廊是城市的生命线,一旦出现问题就会对人们生命财产安全造成巨大损害。为了系统地分析管廊运维风险,建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的风险评估框架。首先,通过分析管廊运维风险源与风险形成的原因以确定风险事件和风险类别;其次,建立管廊运维风险故障树来梳理风险因素之间的逻辑关系,将故障树映射为贝叶斯网络;最后,结合专家模糊评价,构建地下综合管廊运维风险评估模型。案例分析结果显示:中间事件“火灾、爆炸”与“危害气体浓度过高”的发生概率较高。敏感性分析结果显示:“运维人员操作和维护不当”是导致管廊运维风险发生的根本事件,因此需要制定严格管理措施及规范,加强对运维人员的素质培训,以降低管廊运维过程中各种风险的发生概率。

公路隧道场景下的新能源汽车火灾风险评价方法研究

为有效评价公路隧道场景下的新能源汽车火灾风险,解决目前公路隧道火灾评价存在的指标考虑不足、权重确定困难、评价等级界定不清的问题。根据安全学原理,结合新能源汽车火灾致因,从“人-机-环-管”4个方面构建了公路隧道新能源汽车火灾风险评价指标体系。利用决策模型和欧式距离函数,将层次分析法(AHP)主观权重和熵权法客观权重利用组合赋权的方法有效结合,得到更为合理的组合权重。最后利用组合赋权-物元可拓模型对南京定淮门隧道新能源汽车火灾风险进行评价,所得级别变量特征值为1.646,确定该隧道风险等级结果为Ⅱ级,与工程实际相符合,验证了该方法的合理性与可靠性。

基于集对分析理论和数字化平台的山岭隧道塌方风险评价

为更准确、更科学地完成山岭隧道塌方风险评价,提出一种基于层次分析法(AHP)-熵值法(Entropy)集对分析理论的山岭隧道塌方风险评价方法。首先,选取地质因素、设计因素、施工因素、管理因素4项因素作为塌方风险评价指标体系的准则层,选取12项因素作为指标层,运用层次分析法和熵值法分别计算2级指标权重;然后,引入集对分析理论确定指标联系度,并结合置信度准则对塌方风险的等级进行判定;接着,利用Grasshopper以及Python软件,对集对分析理论进行可视化程序开发,并将其与隧道-地质BIM交互模型进行耦合,建立基于AHP-Entropy集对分析模型的隧道塌方风险数字化分析平台;最后,结合重庆某隧道实际工程,验证隧道塌方风险评价的高效化、可视化效果。研究表明:基于集对分析理论的山岭隧道塌方风险评价数字化分析平台运行时间约为2 s,与传统的隧道塌方风险评价方法相比可以大大提高风险评价效率,同时利用AHP-Entropy法确定评价指标权重,提高了评价结果的可靠性。

基于人工智能方法的隧道塌方风险预测研究

为了对隧道塌方风险展开研究,整理246起隧道塌方事故案例,通过建立塌方风险评估指标体系,基于人工智能预测方法,分别采用随机森林算法、径向基函数神经网络、BP神经网络模型、粒子群算法优化BP神经网络模型,对塌方风险进行预测。结果表明,随机森林算法、径向基函数神经网络、BP神经网络模型、粒子群算法优化BP神经网络模型的塌方预测准确率分别为81.67%、83.33%、86.67%、93.33%,F_(1)值分别为0.645、0.642、0.5、0.833。粒子群算法优化BP神经网络模型预测准确率和F_(1)值均大幅提高,预测效果最好,大大减少了评估结果的主观性,为隧道塌方风险研究提供了新的研究思路。

综合管廊安全运行隐患的第三方排查机制研究——以北京市为例

为提升综合管廊运营安全,建立有效的隐患排查和灾害防控机制,本文提出在管廊运维企业建立健全安全体系基础上,由相关政府部门组织,引入第三方安全服务机构,开展隐患排查抽检工作的机制;同时通过实践和专家经验,形成第三方排查工作实施路径和排查的主要工作内容。第三方排查的主要内容包括资料调研、实地调查和安全检测3部分。第三方排查机制不仅能够督促企业自律,倒逼企业自查,有效识别潜在风险,减少安全事故的发生,还能够推动综合管廊安全管理工作的持续改进和创新。

铁路隧道施工安全风险评估及趋势分析研究

为解决铁路隧道施工安全风险等级评定和趋势分析的问题,基于工程资料和相关文献,应用层次全息建模(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM)理论从自然环境、地质条件、施工技术、施工管理四个维度开展铁路隧道施工安全风险因素辨识工作。以相关技术规范为依据,结合专家经验构建铁路隧道安全风险评估指标体系。选用G1法、改进基于指标间相关性分析的权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation,CRITIC)、最小二乘法测算评估指标权重,运用集对分析理论建立铁路隧道施工安全风险评估模型,遵循级别特征值判别规则评定安全风险等级,基于偏联系数理论分析安全风险发展趋势,并成功应用于D隧道的安全风险等级评定和趋势分析,验证了评估方法的可行性和科学性,为铁路隧道施工安全风险评估提供了一种新方法,为铁路隧道施工安全风险管控提供理论支撑。

高速公路隧道运营安全风险评估与防控探究

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