Adopting Just and Pope （1978, 1979） style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect gra...Adopting Just and Pope （1978, 1979） style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1℃ increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% （1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China）, while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% （3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China）.展开更多
Phosphorus （P） applied from fertilizer and manure is important in increasing crop yield and soil fertility; however, excessive uses of phosphate fertilizer and manure may also increase P loss from agricultural soils...Phosphorus （P） applied from fertilizer and manure is important in increasing crop yield and soil fertility; however, excessive uses of phosphate fertilizer and manure may also increase P loss from agricultural soils, posing environmental impact. A long term experiment was conducted on a calcareous soil （meadow cinnamon） in Hebei Province, China, from 2003 to 2006 to investigate the effects of phosphate fertilizer and manure on the yield of Chinese cabbage, soil P accumulation, P sorption saturation, soluble P in runoff water, and P leaching. P fertilizer （P2O5） application at a rate of 360 kg ha^-1 or manure of 150 t ha^-1 significantly increased Chinese cabbage yield as compared to the unfertilized control. However, no significant yield response was found with excessive phosphate or manure application. Soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in top soil layer （0-20 cm）, and soluble P in runoff water increased significantly with the increase of phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates, whereas the maximum phosphorus sorption capacity （Qm） decreased with the phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates. Soil Olsen-P and soluble P also increased significantly in the sub soil layer （20-40 cm） with the high P fertilizer and manure rates. It indicates that excessive P application over crop demand can lead to a high environmental risk owing to the enrichment of soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, and the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in agricultural soils.展开更多
Based on meteorological data including daily sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation from 97 meteorological stations in Hunan province during the period of 1981—2010, in combination with the field experiment...Based on meteorological data including daily sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation from 97 meteorological stations in Hunan province during the period of 1981—2010, in combination with the field experiment in different places at different sowing dates, the precise climatic risk zoning of double cropping super rice cultivation has been studied by using the spatial interpolation method and other Geographical Information System(GIS)technologies. Three key climatic factors were selected including chilling in May, high temperature heat damage during July to early August and low temperature damage in autumn in this study. Furthermore, based on the analysis of climatic conditions suitable for double cropping super rice cultivation and climatic disasters, 8-22 ℃ active accumulated temperature, sunshine duration from late March to October, climatic risk index of the low temperature in autumn, and climatic risk index of chilling in May were selected as key climatic factors to study the precise agro-meteorological regionalization of double cropping super rice in Hunan province. The results showed that: the high-yielding zones of double cropping super rice in Hunan were mainly located in Zhuzhou, Hengyang, Yongzhou and Chenzhou City, the moderate-yielding zones were primarily located in the east and north reaches of Dongting Lake,together with most of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan City, and other regions in Hunan were not suitable for double cropping super rice. These findings can provide valuable information for the large-scale cultivation of double cropping super rice in Hunan province.展开更多
The interactions on rainfed soybean yield among planting date, maturity, and year-to-yearclimate change were studied using CROPGRO-soybean model. Simulations were based on 19 plantingdates, maturity groupsⅢ, ⅣandⅤ,...The interactions on rainfed soybean yield among planting date, maturity, and year-to-yearclimate change were studied using CROPGRO-soybean model. Simulations were based on 19 plantingdates, maturity groupsⅢ, ⅣandⅤ, 30 years recorded weather data from Corbin, Suffolk,West Point in Virginia, USA. Yield was similar on early plantings and went down with lateplantings. Both grand and year-to-year variation of soybean yield declined linearly withplanting date. Year-to-year climate variation was dominant yield variation source inrainfed soybean production. Interaction occurred between planting date and maturity.Optimal planting dates for different sites lied within 130th-170th day of a year.Irrigation is recommended for profitable crops, especially in Corbin and West Point.展开更多
Based on theoretical analysis of crop risk and premium rate setting,we take the case of premium rate setting of insurance on cotton yield in Shache County,Shaya County and Aksu City of Xinjiang.Using parametric method...Based on theoretical analysis of crop risk and premium rate setting,we take the case of premium rate setting of insurance on cotton yield in Shache County,Shaya County and Aksu City of Xinjiang.Using parametric methods and insurance actuarial technique,we select the optimal model for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;compare the premium rate calculated accurately under four risk distribution assumptions of cotton yield,and the rational premium rate,to analyze the impact of risk distribution of crop yield on premium rate setting.The empirical results show that the Logistic distribution is the optimal distribution for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;the rational net premium rate of cotton insurance in three areas is 7.62%,6.32% and 4.96%,respectively;there are errors in premium rate setting under assumptions of normal distribution,normalized skew distribution and Weibull distribution,ranging from 0.2 percentage points to 8 percentage points.Thus,it indicates that the selection of risk distribution model of yield directly affects the accuracy of premium rate setting of crops,and the key to accurate premium rate setting of crops lies in correct selection of risk distribution model of yield.展开更多
This paper provides empirical evidence that improved supplemental irrigation (ISI) can be justified on both environmental and economic grounds. Results of a stochastic frontier model which explicitly and simultaneousl...This paper provides empirical evidence that improved supplemental irrigation (ISI) can be justified on both environmental and economic grounds. Results of a stochastic frontier model which explicitly and simultaneously accounts for technical inefficiency and production risk applied to data collected from 513 wheat farms in the rainfed areas of Syria show that the typical adopter farmer obtained yield and productive efficiency gains of 6% and 7% respectively. A stochastic dominance criterion also showed that the adopter farmers got 10% and 13% reductions in risk of obtaining yield levels below 4 tons/ha and 3 tons/ha respectively. Given its adoption level of 22.3% in 2010, ISI led to the production of 52 thousand metric tons (6%), more wheat and conservation of 120 million cubic meters of water (10%). ISI has the potential to reduce total irrigation water use by upto 45% and for further increases in yield if accompanied with sprinklers and other improved agronomic practices, thereby enhancing food security and environmental sustainability in the country. An important policy implication of these findings is that wider dissemination of ISI along with other complementary agronomic practices in postwar Syria could be a viable option to be considered by national and international efforts for the restoration and rehabilitation of agriculture in the country.展开更多
文摘Adopting Just and Pope （1978, 1979） style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1℃ increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% （1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China）, while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% （3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China）.
基金The study was supported by the 948 Program of theMinistry of Agriculture of China （2003-253） the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,China （300130）.
文摘Phosphorus （P） applied from fertilizer and manure is important in increasing crop yield and soil fertility; however, excessive uses of phosphate fertilizer and manure may also increase P loss from agricultural soils, posing environmental impact. A long term experiment was conducted on a calcareous soil （meadow cinnamon） in Hebei Province, China, from 2003 to 2006 to investigate the effects of phosphate fertilizer and manure on the yield of Chinese cabbage, soil P accumulation, P sorption saturation, soluble P in runoff water, and P leaching. P fertilizer （P2O5） application at a rate of 360 kg ha^-1 or manure of 150 t ha^-1 significantly increased Chinese cabbage yield as compared to the unfertilized control. However, no significant yield response was found with excessive phosphate or manure application. Soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in top soil layer （0-20 cm）, and soluble P in runoff water increased significantly with the increase of phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates, whereas the maximum phosphorus sorption capacity （Qm） decreased with the phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates. Soil Olsen-P and soluble P also increased significantly in the sub soil layer （20-40 cm） with the high P fertilizer and manure rates. It indicates that excessive P application over crop demand can lead to a high environmental risk owing to the enrichment of soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, and the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in agricultural soils.
基金China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(201206045)
文摘Based on meteorological data including daily sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation from 97 meteorological stations in Hunan province during the period of 1981—2010, in combination with the field experiment in different places at different sowing dates, the precise climatic risk zoning of double cropping super rice cultivation has been studied by using the spatial interpolation method and other Geographical Information System(GIS)technologies. Three key climatic factors were selected including chilling in May, high temperature heat damage during July to early August and low temperature damage in autumn in this study. Furthermore, based on the analysis of climatic conditions suitable for double cropping super rice cultivation and climatic disasters, 8-22 ℃ active accumulated temperature, sunshine duration from late March to October, climatic risk index of the low temperature in autumn, and climatic risk index of chilling in May were selected as key climatic factors to study the precise agro-meteorological regionalization of double cropping super rice in Hunan province. The results showed that: the high-yielding zones of double cropping super rice in Hunan were mainly located in Zhuzhou, Hengyang, Yongzhou and Chenzhou City, the moderate-yielding zones were primarily located in the east and north reaches of Dongting Lake,together with most of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan City, and other regions in Hunan were not suitable for double cropping super rice. These findings can provide valuable information for the large-scale cultivation of double cropping super rice in Hunan province.
文摘The interactions on rainfed soybean yield among planting date, maturity, and year-to-yearclimate change were studied using CROPGRO-soybean model. Simulations were based on 19 plantingdates, maturity groupsⅢ, ⅣandⅤ, 30 years recorded weather data from Corbin, Suffolk,West Point in Virginia, USA. Yield was similar on early plantings and went down with lateplantings. Both grand and year-to-year variation of soybean yield declined linearly withplanting date. Year-to-year climate variation was dominant yield variation source inrainfed soybean production. Interaction occurred between planting date and maturity.Optimal planting dates for different sites lied within 130th-170th day of a year.Irrigation is recommended for profitable crops, especially in Corbin and West Point.
基金Supported by International Cooperation Project of China's Agricultural Insurance (DelPHE ACIC)
文摘Based on theoretical analysis of crop risk and premium rate setting,we take the case of premium rate setting of insurance on cotton yield in Shache County,Shaya County and Aksu City of Xinjiang.Using parametric methods and insurance actuarial technique,we select the optimal model for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;compare the premium rate calculated accurately under four risk distribution assumptions of cotton yield,and the rational premium rate,to analyze the impact of risk distribution of crop yield on premium rate setting.The empirical results show that the Logistic distribution is the optimal distribution for risk fitting of cotton yield in three areas;the rational net premium rate of cotton insurance in three areas is 7.62%,6.32% and 4.96%,respectively;there are errors in premium rate setting under assumptions of normal distribution,normalized skew distribution and Weibull distribution,ranging from 0.2 percentage points to 8 percentage points.Thus,it indicates that the selection of risk distribution model of yield directly affects the accuracy of premium rate setting of crops,and the key to accurate premium rate setting of crops lies in correct selection of risk distribution model of yield.
文摘This paper provides empirical evidence that improved supplemental irrigation (ISI) can be justified on both environmental and economic grounds. Results of a stochastic frontier model which explicitly and simultaneously accounts for technical inefficiency and production risk applied to data collected from 513 wheat farms in the rainfed areas of Syria show that the typical adopter farmer obtained yield and productive efficiency gains of 6% and 7% respectively. A stochastic dominance criterion also showed that the adopter farmers got 10% and 13% reductions in risk of obtaining yield levels below 4 tons/ha and 3 tons/ha respectively. Given its adoption level of 22.3% in 2010, ISI led to the production of 52 thousand metric tons (6%), more wheat and conservation of 120 million cubic meters of water (10%). ISI has the potential to reduce total irrigation water use by upto 45% and for further increases in yield if accompanied with sprinklers and other improved agronomic practices, thereby enhancing food security and environmental sustainability in the country. An important policy implication of these findings is that wider dissemination of ISI along with other complementary agronomic practices in postwar Syria could be a viable option to be considered by national and international efforts for the restoration and rehabilitation of agriculture in the country.
