Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Risk-based evaluation on geological environment carrying capacity of mountain city - A case study in Suide County, Shaanxi Province, China

With the rapid development and expansion of the cities in China, the carrying capacity of resource and environment has become a huge concern for local governments. From the perspective of geological environment, geological disasters are the main restraining factor of the development in mountain cities. This study was conducted in Suide County of Shaanxi Province with a risk-based approach as followed: a hazard analysis on geological disasters based on a slope geological survey at a scale of 1:10,000; a consequence analysis based on unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) aerial survey data; integrating the results of hazard analysis and consequence analysis, a risk zonation and analysis of geological disasters in urban areas were completed considering urban planning, land use planning and the safety of infrastructure and major engineering. Subsequently, taking the acceptable levels of human life and property risks incurred by landslides as the criteria of the evaluation of geological environment carrying capacity, a comprehensive assessment of current and future urban carrying capacity was conducted based on the results of the risk analyses. Accordingly, the prior development zone, the restricted development zone and the prohibited zone were delineated, with corresponding suggestions for future urban development. The technological and methodological system used in the study can be applied to geological environment carrying capacity evaluation of other important mountain cities, which can provide scientific basis for the optimization of land and space.

Risk Analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness, fuzziness, grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ＂＊＂ matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability ＂×＂ matrix. And then a graph of ＂groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability＂ can be gained Based on the graph, fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus, a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained, with comprehensive analysis to the state of society, economy technology and ecology.

Case Study: Reviewing Methods of Assessing Community Adaptive Capacity for Jefferson County, Texas

With the increased attention on community sustainability and resilience, different poles have developed voicing similarities and/or differences of the two concepts. This study quantifies adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, Texas, one of the coastal communities at the Gulf of Mexico having some of the worse adverse effects. Review of existing methods is presented. Analyses were conducted for the last ten years: from 2005 to 2014. Interestingly, statistical analyses showed that the County’s socio-economic profile or indicators have not changed throughout the ten years, but the environmental, institutional, and infrastructure indicators have. Focusing on one location magnifies the adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, the temporal aspect of both perspectives, and the relevance of existing methods to this community with its peculiarities. Future assessments need to be based on primary data collected through participatory engagement of all stakeholders. This calls for attempts to quantify adaptive capacity using the comparatively more challenging deductive reasoning, which would allow for incorporation of more risks and thus higher readiness.

Risk-taking path choice behaviors under ATIS in transportation networks with demand uncertainty

A new travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model is proposed to investigate the effects of an advanced transportation information system (ATIS) on drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. In the model, drivers are divided into two classes. The first class is not equipped with ATIS, while the second class is equipped with ATIS. Different risk-taking path choice behaviours of the two classes are studied, respectively. A corresponding mixed equilibrium traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem in terms of path flows, which is solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical results indicate that the ATIS can influence the drivers' risk-taking path choice behaviours and the total system travel time in transportation networks with demand uncertainty. It is also found that under higher demand levels, the benefits of ATIS for network performance enhancement may be more obvious.

Factors Related to Functional Capacity and Quality of Life for Elderly People in a Middle-Sized City of São Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: It is a fact that the elderly population has been increasing all around the world and also in Brazil. This has been a challenge for governments and managers in the development of public policies to promote healthy and quality aging. And one of the conditions for healthy aging is to assess the functional capacity and quality of life of elderly people. Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the factors that influence the loss of functional capacity and the worsening of the quality of life of a representative sample of elderly people from a medium-sized city in the inner of São Paulo State, Brazil. Methodology: Questionnaires about activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), Flanagan quality of life scale (FQOLS), sociodemographic and morbidities aspects were applied to the elderly people. In order to assess associated factors to functional capacity and quality of life, chi-square tests and logistic regression models were fitted including variables: gender, age group, marital status, income, education level, body mass index, abdominal circumference and some morbidities reported by the elderly people. The level of significance adopted for the statistical tests was 5%. Results: Elderly with age over 75 years old and not married had more risk to be dependent on ADL, while elderly with more than 75 years old, not married, income below one minimal wage, cardiovascular disease and be diabetic had more risk to be dependent by IADL. Already, people with excess of weight had smallest risk to be dependent by IADL, paradoxically. The elderly not married and with an income below a minimum wage had the worst quality of life. Conclusions: Population aging in Brazil is an evident factor, so it is hoped that this study will contribute to the greatest diligence on the issues of the elderly and related social problems.

Popularity, likeability, and risk-taking in middle adolescence

This study investigated the roles of adolescent popularity and likeability in eight domains of risk-taking in Australian grade 9 students (53% girls). The eight domains included previously examined areas of aggressive behaviours, alcohol use, and sexual intercourse, and areas where there is scarce information, including antisocial activities, unprotected intercourse, body image-related risk-taking, unsafe road practices, and stranger-related risk-taking. The results indicated a clear association between popularity and higher risk-taking in five of the eight domains. This is contrasted with likeability, which was not directly related to risk-taking aside from one two-way interaction with gender for sexual intercourse. The findings demonstrate the importance of including a broader range of risk-taking activities when considering popularity, particularly stranger-related risk-taking.

Development of a Self-Assessment Questionnaire for Nurses’ Risk-Taking Behavior in Medication

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to prepare a self-assessment questionnaire for nurses’ risk-taking behavior (RTB) in medication and to develop a reliable and valid questionnaire. Method: In the first study, a draft of the self-evaluation questionnaire for nurses’ RTB in medication was prepared based on the literature study and qualitative analysis of important case information included in the Project to Collect Medical Near-miss/Adverse Event Information Annual Report of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Following the studies, face validity was confirmed, and a questionnaire survey was conducted for nurses who oversee medication nationwide to verify the reliability and validity. Result: The number of subjects was 586 (valid response rate: 94.1%). Item analysis and exploratory factor analysis showed that 4 factors and 12 items for the RTBs in daily life and 4 factors and 20 items for RTBs in medication could be extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the fit of the hypothetical model obtained by exploratory factor analysis. In addition, Cronbach’s α coefficient was 0.888. Thus, high reliability and validity were obtained. A correlation was found by comparing the total scores of each RTB factor with the incident/accident group, and a standard for self-evaluation value could be established (p < 0.01). Conclusions: We were able to develop a self-assessment questionnaire for nurses’ risk-taking behavior in medication. This questionnaire will be used by nurses to find out their trends.

商业银行设立理财子公司能够实现风险隔离吗?

本文以中国商业银行设立理财子公司为准自然实验,基于2018—2021年84家银行的季度财务数据,采用渐进双重差分模型(DID)考察商业银行设立理财子公司的风险隔离效应。研究发现:设立理财子公司显著降低了母公司商业银行的风险承担,能够实现理财业务与其他业务的风险隔离,且设立时间越长,风险隔离效应越显著。异质性检验和机制分析表明,这种风险隔离效应在城商行与农商行中最弱;“去嵌套、降杠杆”和“去池化、缓错配”是实现风险隔离的主要机制。对母公司商业银行和理财子公司并表的进一步分析发现,设立理财子公司不能降低银行控股集团的整体风险承担,仅能实现风险隔离。这些研究发现对于完善商业银行内部控制和外部监管具有重要启示。

金融强监管对企业风险承担的影响——来自资管新规的经验证据

在经济下行压力增大、外部环境不确定性有增无减的背景下,我国企业运营正面临着各种挑战,企业风险承担问题尤为突出。选取2011—2021年A股上市公司作为样本,以资管新规的出台作为准自然实验,检验资管新规对企业风险承担水平的影响,探究企业在金融强监管下的风险承担行为。研究发现,资管新规提升了企业的风险承担水平。经济后果检验显示,资管新规主要增加了企业的被动风险承担,加大了企业的破产风险。经调节效应分析得到,企业通过提高信息披露透明度,政府通过改善营商环境、推进资本市场开放,可以缓解在资管新规出台背景下企业风险承担提高而带来的生产经营压力。

迎难而上:知觉资源稀缺对员工突破性创造力的影响机制研究

根据结构性紧张理论和不确定性管理理论,本研究探讨了知觉资源稀缺对员工突破性创造力的影响,同时对个体冒险意愿的中介作用以及AI-员工互动化的调节作用进行了分析。对来自328个团队1282份领导-员工配对数据的分析结果表明:员工知觉资源稀缺通过个体冒险意愿正向影响员工突破性创造力;AI-员工互动化调节知觉资源稀缺对冒险意愿的正向关系。具体地,即当AI与员工展现出高水平互动时,知觉资源稀缺对冒险意愿的积极作用加强;此外,AI-员工互动化还调节知觉资源稀缺通过冒险意愿影响突破性创造力的间接效应,即随着AI与员工互动水平的增加,知觉资源稀缺通过冒险意愿影响突破性创造力的间接效应更强。研究结果有助于拓展突破性创造力的前沿探讨。

数字化转型能否促进企业绿色创新绩效的提高?——基于我国A股上市公司数据

以2016—2021年沪深两市A股上市公司的数据作为研究样本,运用固定效应面板模型就数字化转型对企业绿色创新绩效的影响进行实证分析,同时探究融资约束的中介效应及风险承担水平、政府补助的调节作用。研究发现:数字化转型能显著促进企业绿色创新绩效的提高,且该作用在国有企业、非重污染企业及市场化程度较低的企业中更明显。进一步分析发现:融资约束在数字化转型对企业绿色创新绩效影响的过程中发挥了部分中介作用;风险承担水平和政府补助均发挥了正向调节作用。因此,企业层面应积极进行数字化转型,通过缓解融资约束来促进绿色创新绩效的提高,并积极发挥风险承担水平和政府补助的调节作用;政府层面应完善补助政策,推动企业绿色创新绩效的持续提高。

高管薪酬结构与企业创新——基于高管风险承担视角

创新是企业获得技术优势的重要行为,有助于国家实现高水平科技自立自强,高管是企业做出创新决策的主体。以2008—2021年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,对高管薪酬结构影响企业创新的效应及作用机制进行了实证检验。研究发现,随着高管薪酬结构中股权薪酬比例的提升,企业创新投入水平呈先上升后下降的倒“U”型趋势。进一步地,以激励物的Delta指数和Vega指数为度量的高管风险承担在薪酬结构影响企业创新的路径中发挥了中介作用。异质性分析表明,高管股权薪酬对企业创新的正向激励效果仅显著存在于非国有企业和位于高市场化程度地区的企业当中。因此,企业要制定合理的薪酬结构,适当提高股权薪酬占比,并注重改善激励环境提升高管的风险承担能力,为企业创新创造良好的内外部环境。

组织韧性:城市社区风险治理的机制优化

面对复杂多变、日益严峻的风险挑战,组织韧性是城市社区提升风险防治能力与实现可持续发展的重要方面。如何整合城市社区组织关系、制度规范、社会资源和集群文化以有效提升组织韧性,在应对各种风险挑战和冲击时快速适应、恢复以至在新的基础上实现跃升,成为我国城市高质量发展和社会治理现代化的重要命题。基于组织韧性视角,应以城市社区风险的有效防范与治理为出发点,从组织架构、组织制度、组织技术和组织文化等多元维度系统地探索组织韧性赋能城市社区风险治理的具体路径,并通过采取具有针对性的措施提升城市社区自组织结构、过程、能力和治理模式方面的韧性,从而夯实城市应急治理的制度根基。

得零售者可以得天下——基于银行利润效率视角

零售业务作为商业银行的基础业务和战略性业务,已经成为中国银行业整体收入增长的主要动力。本文以我国48家商业银行2011—2021年的数据为研究对象,以产出定位的非单调异质性随机前沿方法为基础,测度了商业银行的利润效率水平,并利用2SLS探究零售业务对银行利润效率的整体影响。研究发现,银行零售业务的发展能够有效地提高银行的利润效率,尤其是信用卡业务对利润效率的正向影响最大,个人住房抵押贷款对利润效率的影响次之,消费贷和经营贷的影响最小;第二,国有银行、股份制银行的零售业务对利润效率的促进程度远高于城商行和农商行;第三,中国银行业利润效率整体呈上升趋势,其中,股份制银行的利润效率水平位居榜首,城商行利润效率自2011年以来一路上升,2021年增长到0.5872,而农商行的利润效率水平最低。

基于全纯嵌入法的配电网光伏接纳能力评估方法

针对大规模分布式光伏接入给配电网带来的电压越限风险,提出了一种基于改进全纯嵌入法的光伏接纳能力评估方法。首先,引入离散-聚合方法对时序数据进行处理,利用所生成极端场景集代替原序列进行接纳能力评估;其次,在传统全纯嵌入模型基础上构建了自定义方向模型,进一步推导了满足电压约束的可行域范围,并将节点Sigma轨迹与可行域边界相交作为单次运算下光伏最大接纳容量的判据;然后,利用蒙特卡罗模拟生成相互独立的光伏接入方案,使用所提判据确定各方案下极端场景集对应的接纳容量;最后,统计计算结果,获取光伏接纳容量的累计分布曲线,以此确定电压越限风险下系统的光伏接纳能力。在IEEE 33节点配电网系统上验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

责任型领导如何提升员工创新行为:工作不安全感和风险承担意愿的作用

基于283份主管-下属配对样本,考察了责任型领导对员工创新行为的影响以及工作不安全感的中介作用和风险承担意愿的调节作用。研究结果表明:责任型领导对员工创新行为具有显著正向影响,工作不安全感在责任型领导与员工创新行为之间起中介作用,风险承担意愿正向调节责任型领导与员工创新行为之间的关系。

管理者超额积极情绪对企业风险承担的影响研究

选取我国2010-2020年A股非金融上市公司年报作为研究样本,构建管理者超额积极情绪指标,研究管理者超额积极情绪对企业风险承担的影响以及相应的影响机制,并探究股权激励在其中的调节作用。实证研究表明,管理者超额积极情绪能促进企业风险承担;股权激励在其中起到正向调节作用,会促进管理者超额积极情绪对企业风险承担的正向影响。作用机制检验表明,管理者超额积极情绪主要通过增加债务融资和减少融资约束程度促进企业风险承担。进一步分析表明,管理者超额积极情绪对企业风险承担的促进作用在非国有企业、高机构投资者持股比例显著。

金融科技助力企业提升ESG表现:理论机制和经验证据

金融科技的快速发展为企业和投资者带来了前所未有的发展机遇和挑战,对企业的ESG表现又将产生怎样的影响?选取沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,运用2011—2020年的数据,研究金融科技对企业ESG表现的影响及作用渠道。结果显示,金融科技能够显著地提升企业ESG表现,且经过内生性处理、替换变量和剔除特定样本等稳健性检验后该结论仍然可靠。作用渠道检验发现,金融科技通过提高信贷资源配置效率和风险承担能力对企业ESG表现起到积极影响,并通过抑制盈余管理行为促进企业开展ESG实践。异质性分析发现,金融科技对非国有企业和小规模企业的ESG表现影响作用明显,对金融发展水平较高和金融监管较严地区的企业ESG表现也有显著促进作用。另外,企业良好的ESG表现,能够实现资源的有效利用、建立良好的企业形象及增强利益相关方的信任,进而实现高质量发展。研究结果证实了金融科技与企业ESG表现之间的正向关系,为推进中国ESG体系建设和完善激励相容的政策提供了重要的决策依据。