The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus clouds.Accurately obtaining the entrainment rate(λ)is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization scheme.In this study,an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculateλof cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation.The results demonstrate that the improved bulk-plume method is more reliable than the traditional bulk-plume method,becauseλ,as calculated from the improved method,falls within the range ofλvalues obtained from the traditional method using different conserved variables.The probability density functions ofλfor all data,different times,and different heights can be well-fitted by a log-normal distribution,which supports the assumed stochastic entrainment process in previous studies.Further analysis demonstrate that the relationship betweenλand the vertical velocity is better than other thermodynamic/dynamical properties;thus,the vertical velocity is recommended as the primary influencing factor for the parameterization ofλin the future.The results of this study enhance the theoretical understanding ofλand its influencing factors and shed new light on the development ofλparameterization.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.

Probability Density Analysis of Nonlinear Random Ship Rolling

Ship rolling in random waves is a complicated nonlinear motion that contributes substantially to ship instability and capsizing.The finite element method(FEM)is employed in this paper to solve the Fokker Planck(FP)equations numerically for homoclinic and heteroclinic ship rolling under random waves described as periodic and Gaussian white noise excitations.The transient joint probability density functions(PDFs)and marginal PDFs of the rolling responses are also obtained.The effects of stimulation strength on ship rolling are further investigated from a probabilistic standpoint.The homoclinic ship rolling has two rolling states,the connection between the two peaks of the PDF is observed when the periodic excitation amplitude or the noise intensity is large,and the PDF is remarkably distributed in phase space.These phenomena increase the possibility of a random jump in ship motion states and the uncertainty of ship rolling,and the ship may lose stability due to unforeseeable facts or conditions.Meanwhile,only one rolling state is observed when the ship is in heteroclinic rolling.As the periodic excitation amplitude grows,the PDF concentration increases and drifts away from the beginning location,suggesting that the ship rolling substantially changes in a cycle and its stability is low.The PDF becomes increasingly uniform and covers a large region as the noise intensity increases,reducing the certainty of ship rolling and navigation safety.The current numerical solutions and analyses may be applied to evaluate the stability of a rolling ship in irregular waves and capsize mechanisms.

Explanation of Relation between Wave Function and Probability Density Based on Quantum Mechanics in Phase Space

The main problem of quantum mechanics is to elucidate why the probability density is the modulus square of wave function. For the purpose of solving this problem, we explored the possibility of deducing the fundamental equation of quantum mechanics by starting with the probability density. To do so, it is necessary to formulate a new theory of quantum mechanics distinguished from the previous ones. Our investigation shows that it is possible to construct quantum mechanics in phase space as an alternative autonomous formulation and such a possibility enables us to study quantum mechanics by starting with the probability density rather than the wave function. This direction of research is contrary to configuration-space formulation of quantum mechanics starting with the wave function. Our work leads to a full understanding of the wave function as the both mathematically and physically sufficient representation of quantum-mechanical state which supplements information on quantum state given solely by the probability density with phase information on quantum state. The final result of our work is that quantum mechanics in phase space satisfactorily elucidates the relation between the wave function and the probability density by using the consistent procedure starting with the probability density, thus corroborating the ontological interpretation of the wave function and withdrawing a main assumption of quantum mechanics.

Improved pruning algorithm for Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density filter

With the increment of the number of Gaussian components, the computation cost increases in the Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density(GM-PHD) filter. Based on the theory of Chen et al, we propose an improved pruning algorithm for the GM-PHD filter, which utilizes not only the Gaussian components’ means and covariance, but their weights as a new criterion to improve the estimate accuracy of the conventional pruning algorithm for tracking very closely proximity targets. Moreover, it solves the end-less while-loop problem without the need of a second merging step. Simulation results show that this improved algorithm is easier to implement and more robust than the formal ones.

Shape control on probability density function in stochastic systems

A novel strategy of probability density function （PDF） shape control is proposed in stochastic systems. The control er is designed whose parameters are optimal y obtained through the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. The parameters of the control er are viewed as the space position of a particle in particle swarm optimization algorithm and updated continual y until the control er makes the PDF of the state variable as close as possible to the expected PDF. The proposed PDF shape control technique is compared with the equivalent linearization technique through simulation experiments. The results show the superiority and the effectiveness of the proposed method. The control er is excellent in making the state PDF fol ow the expected PDF and has the very smal error between the state PDF and the expected PDF, solving the control problem of the PDF shape in stochastic systems effectively.

Probability Density Function Method for Observing Reconstructed Attractor Structure

Probability density function (PDF) method is proposed for analysing the structure of the reconstructed attractor in computing the correlation dimensions of RR intervals of ten normal old men. PDF contains important information about the spatial distribution of the phase points in the reconstructed attractor. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that the PDF method is put forward for the analysis of the reconstructed attractor structure. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the cardiac systems of healthy old men are about 6-6.5 dimensional complex dynamical systems. It is found that PDF is not symmetrically distributed when time delay is small, while PDF satisfies Gaussian distribution when time delay is big enough. A cluster effect mechanism is presented to explain this phenomenon. By studying the shape of PDFs, that the roles played by time delay are more important than embedding dimension in the reconstruction is clearly indicated. Results have demonstrated that the PDF method represents a promising numerical approach for the observation of the reconstructed attractor structure and may provide more information and new diagnostic potential of the analyzed cardiac system.

A NEW DATA ASSOCIATION ALGORITHM USING PROBABILITY HYPOTHESIS DENSITY FILTER

Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filtering approach has shown its advantages in tracking time varying number of targets even when there are noise,clutter and misdetection. For linear Gaussian Mixture (GM) system,PHD filter has a closed form recursion (GMPHD). But PHD filter cannot estimate the trajectories of multi-target because it only provides identity-free estimate of target states. Existing data association methods still remain a big challenge mostly because they are com-putationally expensive. In this paper,we proposed a new data association algorithm using GMPHD filter,which significantly alleviated the heavy computing load and performed multi-target trajectory tracking effectively in the meantime.

Linearized Controller Design for the Output Probability Density Functions of Non-Gaussian Stochastic Systems

This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density function is realized by a set of B-spline functions. This generally produces a nonlinear state space model for the weights of the B-spline approximation. A linearized model is therefore obtained and embedded into a performance function that measures the tracking error of the output probability density function with respect to a given distribution. By using this performance function as a Lyapunov function for the closed loop system, a feedback control input has been obtained which guarantees closed loop stability and realizes perfect tracking. The algorithm described in this paper has been tested on a simulated example and desired results have been achieved.

Nonstationary probability densities of system response of strongly nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom system subject to modulated white noise excitation

The nonstationary probability densities of system response of a single-degree- of-freedom system with lightly nonlinear damping and strongly nonlinear stiffness subject to modulated white noise excitation are studied. Using the stochastic averaging method based on the generalized harmonic functions, the averaged Fokl^er-Planck-Kolmogorov equation governing the nonstationary probability density of the amplitude is derived. The solution of the equation is approximated by the series expansion in terms of a set of properly selected basis functions with time-dependent coefficients. According to the Galerkin method, the time-dependent coefficients can be solved from a set of first-order linear differential equations. Then, the semi-analytical formulae of the nonstationary probability density of the amplitude response as well as the nonstationary probability density of the state response and the statistic moments of the amplitude response can be obtained. A van der Pol-Duffing oscillator subject to modulated white noise is given as an example to illustrate the proposed procedures. The effects of the system parameters, such as the linear damping coefficient and the nonlinear stiffness coefficient, on the system response are discussed.

Kernel density estimation and marginalized-particle based probability hypothesis density filter for multi-target tracking

In order to improve the performance of the probability hypothesis density(PHD) algorithm based particle filter(PF) in terms of number estimation and states extraction of multiple targets, a new probability hypothesis density filter algorithm based on marginalized particle and kernel density estimation is proposed, which utilizes the idea of marginalized particle filter to enhance the estimating performance of the PHD. The state variables are decomposed into linear and non-linear parts. The particle filter is adopted to predict and estimate the nonlinear states of multi-target after dimensionality reduction, while the Kalman filter is applied to estimate the linear parts under linear Gaussian condition. Embedding the information of the linear states into the estimated nonlinear states helps to reduce the estimating variance and improve the accuracy of target number estimation. The meanshift kernel density estimation, being of the inherent nature of searching peak value via an adaptive gradient ascent iteration, is introduced to cluster particles and extract target states, which is independent of the target number and can converge to the local peak position of the PHD distribution while avoiding the errors due to the inaccuracy in modeling and parameters estimation. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can obtain higher tracking accuracy when using fewer sampling particles and is of lower computational complexity compared with the PF-PHD.

On the Probability Density Function of the Real and Imaginary Parts in WFRFT Signals

Recently a Hybrid Carrier(HC) scheme based on Weighted-type Fractional Fourier Transform(WFRFT) was proposed and developed,which contains Single Carrier(SC) and Multi-Carrier(MC) synergetic transmission.The wide interest is primarily due to its appealing characteristics,such as the robust performances in different types of selective fading channels and a great deal of potential for secure communications.According to the literatures,the HC signal and SC or MC signal probability distributions are different.In particular,some benefits of this HC scheme are brought by the quasi-Gaussian distribution of WFRFT signals.However,until now researchers have only presented statistic properties through computer simulations,and the accurate expressions of signals are not derived yet.In this paper,we derive the accurate and rigorously established closed-form expressions of Probability Density Function(PDF) of WFRFT signal real and imaginary parts with a large number of QPSK subcarriers,and this PDF can describe the behavior of data modulated by WFRFT,avoiding the complex computation for extensive computer simulations.Furthermore,the components of PDF expression are described and analyzed,and it is revealed that the tendency of signal quasi-Gaussian changes with the increasingof the parameter α(α in(0,1]).To validate the analytical results,extensive simulations have been conducted,showing a very good match between the analytical results and the real situations.The contribution of this paper may be useful to deduce the closed form expressions of Bit Error Ratio(BER),the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function(CCDF) of Peak to Average Power Ratio(PAPR),and other analytical studies which adopt the PDF.

Study on Evaluation Method of Aluminum alloy Pulse MIG Welding Stability Based on Arc Voltage Probability Density

Bring forward a new analytical method in order to evaluate the stability of the process of aluminum alloy pulsed MIG welding. The ratio of the first and the second peak in arc voltage signal probability density was selected to evaluate aluminum alloy pulse MIG welding stability. By calculating the arc voltage signal probability density from 80 sets of welding experiments, the ratio of the two peaks in arc voltage probability in every set was captured. And the evaluation system of aluminum alloy pulse MIG welding stability was established. The smaller the ratio of peaks in arc voltage signal probability density is, the better the stability of the welding will be;the bigger the ratio of peaks in arc voltage signal probability density is, the poorer the stability of the welding will be.

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.

MULTITARGET STATE AND TRACK ESTIMATION FOR THE PROBABILITY HYPOTHESES DENSITY FILTER

The particle Probability Hypotheses Density (particle-PHD) filter is a tractable approach for Random Finite Set (RFS) Bayes estimation, but the particle-PHD filter can not directly derive the target track. Most existing approaches combine the data association step to solve this problem. This paper proposes an algorithm which does not need the association step. Our basic ideal is based on the clustering algorithm of Finite Mixture Models (FMM). The intensity distribution is first derived by the particle-PHD filter, and then the clustering algorithm is applied to estimate the multitarget states and tracks jointly. The clustering process includes two steps: the prediction and update. The key to the proposed algorithm is to use the prediction as the initial points and the convergent points as the es- timates. Besides, Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ap- proaches are used for the FMM parameter estimation.

Steady-state probability density function in wave turbulence under large volume limit

We investigate the possibility for two-mode probability density function （PDF） to have a non-zero flux steady state solution. We take the large volume limit so that the space of modes becomes continuous. It is shown that in this limit all the steady-state twoor higher-mode PDFs are the product of one-mode PDFs. The flux of this steady-state solution turns out to be zero for any finite mode PDF.

Controlling the probability density of quantum systems

A new method to design a quantum controller which directly controls the probability density function（PDF） of quantum systems is proposed.Based on the quantum model from the PDF perspective,two specific control algorithms are proposed with uniform and non-uniform fields,respectively.Then a detailed control algorithm with convergence analysis is given for the small error case.By appropriately estimating the selected Lyapunov function,more accurate control effect is achieved.The proposed scheme provides a constructive method to find appropriate parameters for controller design.

ON DOUBLE PEAK PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS OF DUFFING OSCILLATOR TO COMBINED DETERMINISTIC AND RANDOM EXCITATIONS

The principal resonance of Duffing random external excitation was investigated. oscillator to combined deterministic and The random excitation was taken to be white noise or harmonic with separable random amplitude and phase. The method of multiple scales was used to determine the equations of modulation of amplitude and phase. The one peak probability density function of each of the two stable stationary solutions was calculated by the linearization method. These two one-peak-density functions were combined using the probability of realization of the two stable stationary solutions to obtain the double peak probability density function. The theoretical analysis are verified by numerical results.

Developing theory of probability density function for stochastic modeling of turbulent gas-particle flows

Turbulent gas-particle flows are studied by a kinetic description using a prob- ability density function （PDF）. Unlike other investigators deriving the particle Reynolds stress equations using the PDF equations, the particle PDF transport equations are di- rectly solved either using a finite-difference method for two-dimensional （2D） problems or using a Monte-Carlo （MC） method for three-dimensional （3D） problems. The proposed differential stress model together with the PDF （DSM-PDF） is used to simulate turbulent swirling gas-particle flows. The simulation results are compared with the experimental results and the second-order moment （SOM） two-phase modeling results. All of these simulation results are in agreement with the experimental results, implying that the PDF approach validates the SOM two-phase turbulence modeling. The PDF model with the SOM-MC method is used to simulate evaporating gas-droplet flows, and the simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental results.