Radiometric Zircon Ages of a Tuff Sample from the Baishantou Member of Wuyun Formation,Jiayin:A Contribution to the Search for the K-T Boundary in Heilongjian River Area,China

The existence of the Cretaceous-Tertiary （K/T） boundary in the non-marine succession is expected at Jiayin in the Heilongjiang River area, China. Zircons from a tuff sample from the Baishantou Member of Wuyun Formation in Jiayin were analyzed by the laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry （LA-ICP-MS） U-Pb dating and fission-track dating methods. Ages of 64.1±0.7 Ma （U-Pb） and 61.7±1.8 Ma （fission-track dating） were obtained, which allow reevaluation of a previously reported late Maastrichian age for the tuff layer that was in conflict with the paleontological evidence. These results confirm the Danian age of the section in agreement with the paleontological evidence.

Detrital K-feldspar^(40)Ar/^(39)Ar Ages:Source Constraints of the Lower Miocene Sandstones in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea

The South China Sea began to outspread in the Oligocene. A great quantity of terraneous detritus was deposited in the northern continental shelf of the sea, mostly in Pearl River Mouth Basin, which constituted the main paleo-Pearl River Delta. The delta developed for a long geological time and formed a superimposed area. Almost all the oil and gas fields of detrital rock reservoir distribute in this delta. Thirty-three oil sandstone core samples in the Zhujiang Formation, lower Miocene （23-16 Ma）, were collected from nine wells. The illite samples with detrital K feldspar （Kfs） separated from these sandstone cores in four sub-structural belts were analysed by the high-precision 40Ar/39Ar laser stepwise heating technique. All 33 illite 40Ar/39Ar data consistently yielded gradually rising age spectra at the low-temperature steps until reaching age plateaus at mid-high temperature steps. The youngest ages corresponding to the beginning steps were interpreted as the hydrocarbon accumulation ages and the plateau ages in mid-high temperature steps as the contributions of the detrital feldspar representing the ages of the granitic parent rocks in the provenances. The ages of the detrital feldspar from the Zhujiang Formation in the four sub-structural belts were different： （1） the late Cretaceous ages in the Lufeng 13 fault structural belt; （2） the late Cretaceous and early Cretaceous-Jurassic ages in the Huizhou 21 buried hill-fault belt; （3） the Jurassic and Triassic ages in the Xijiang 24 buried hill-fault belt; and （4） the early Cretaceous - late Jurassic ages in the Panyu 4 oil area. These detrital feldspar 4~Ar/39Ar ages become younger and younger from west to east, corresponding to the age distribution of the granites in the adjacent Guangdong Province, Southern China.

Chemical U-Th-Pb Monazite Dating of Deformations versus Pluton Emplacement and the Proterozoic History of the Arkansas River Region,Colorado,USA

Five lengthy periods involving multiple phases of cordierite and andalusite growth were revealed by detailed studies of foliation inflection/intersection axes （FIA） preserved in porphyroblasts in schists from the Arkansas River region in Colorado, USA. The regionally consistent character of the succession of five different FIA trends enabled the relative timing of each FIA with respect to the next to be determined. The FIA succession from first to last is： FIA 1 trending W-E, FIA 2 trending SSW- NNE, FIA 3 trending NNW-SSE, FIA 4 trending NW-SE and FIA 5 trending SW-NE. For four of the FIA sets, samples were found containing monazite grains preserved as inclusions. These were dated on an electron microprobe. The ages obtained concur exactly with the FIA succession, with FIA 1 at 1506±15 Ma, FIA 2 at 1467±23 Ma, FIA 3 at 1425±18 Ma, FIA 4 not dated and FIA 5 at 1366±20 Ma. These ages are directly reflected in a succession of plutons in the surrounding region dated by other isotopic approaches, suggesting that deformation, metamorphism and pluton emplacement occurred together episodically, but effectively continuously, for some 140 Ma.

Geochemical distribution, fractionation, and sources of heavy metals in dammed-river sediments: the Longjiang River, Southern China

In the present study, six sediment cores were collected from six river-dammed reservoirs to reveal the geochemical distribution of heavy metals(As, Cd, Pb, Sb,and Zn) in the Longjiang River, South China, which is highly impacted by nonferrous metal mining and smelting activities. The sediments were geochemically characterized, combining geochemical analysis, sequential extractions, and210 Pb chronology. The results indicated that the river sediments were severely polluted by heavy metals in the order of Cd [ Zn & Pb & Sb [ As. These heavy metals generally exhibited relatively low enrichment in the upstream sediments because of the limited anthropogenic impact, but their abundances drastically increased in the midstream sediments due to local smelting activities. In downstream sediments, the heavy metal concentrations(except for Cd) decreased, owing to the effect of dam interception and detrital inputs. Cadmium levels tended to increase in downstream sediments, which were attributed to the intensive discharge of Cd during the pollution event in 2012. The sedimentary records were traced back to1985, and a significant decrease of heavy metal enrichments could be found after the year 2000, suggesting the enhancement of environmental management in this period.The statistical results indicated that local metal smelting and mining activities were the main anthropogenic contributors for the enrichment of heavy metals in the dammed-river sediments. High enrichment factor and nonresidual fractions of heavy metals in local sediments may pose a direct threat to aquatic organisms. Cd presents significant danger because of its extreme enrichment and high labile fractions.

K-Ar Dating of Fault Gouges from the Red River Fault Zone of Vietnam

Constraining the timing of fault zone formation is fundamentally important in terms of geotectonics to understand structural evolution and brittle fault processes.This paper presents the first authigenic illite K-Ar age data from fault gouge samples collected from the Red River Shear Zone at Lao Cai province,Vietnam.The fault gouge samples were separated into three grain-size fractions（〈0.1 μm,0.1-0.4 μm and 0.4-1.0 μm）.The results show that the K-Ar age values decrease from coarser to finer grain fractions（24.1 to 19.2 Ma）,suggesting enrichment in finer fraction of morerecently grown authigenic illites.The timing of the fault movement are the lower intercept ages at 0%detrital illite（19.2 ± 0.92 Ma and 19.4 ± 0.49 Ma）.In combination with previous geochronological data,this result indicates that the metamorphism of the Day Nui Con Voi（DNCV） metamorphic complex took place before ca.26.8 Ma.At about 26.8 Ma-25 Ma,the fault strongly acted to cause the rapid exhumation of the rocks along the Red River-Ailoa Shan Fault Zone（RR-ASFZ）.During brittle deformation,the DNCV slowly uplifted,implying weak movement of the fault.This brittle deformation might have lasted for ca.5 Ma.

Dating of the topmost terrace in the Jingxian Basin,Anhui Province:an indication of the establishment of the Qingyijiang River

On the northern fringe of Mt. Huangshan, many fiver terraces are developed at the junction between mountains and plains. The fiver terraces are most typical in the Jingxian Basin, Anhui Province, where the Qingyijiang River, one of the longest tributaries of the lower Yangtze River, developed three staircase terraces. The topmost terrace （i.e., the T3 terrace） tread is 38 - 39 m above fiver level, and the top of the gravels is generally covered by 3 - 10.9 m of red clay deposits. Systematic magnetostratigraphy and electron spin resonance dating are used to research the timing of the establishment of the Qingyijiang River. The main results show that the topmost terrace developed no later than 900 kyr ago and that the appearance of the Qingyijiang River occurred correspondingly at least before 900 kyr ago on the northern fringe of Mt. Huangshan. In view of the almost synchronous age,the establishment of the Qingyijiang River was seemingly a response to the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution when the 100 kyr cycle commenced, and the Kunlun-Huanghe movement during the early- middle Pleistocene transition. In addition, the establishment of the Qingyijiang River possibly reflected the birth of the modem Yangtze River to some degree. Therefore the timing of the formation of the Yangtze River is restricted to no later than 900 kyr ago based on the appearance of the Qingyijiang River .

Cosmogenic 26Al/10Be Burial Dating of the Birth of the Present Hanjiang River

Objective Structural lows and major rift systems provide the basis for the creation of large rivers.The uplift of the Qinling and Daba Mountains structural belts and Tibetan Plateau would have provided the basis for the origin and northwest–southeast flow of the ancient Hanjiang River(Lu et al.,2018).After a long-term evolution,the present pattern of Hanjiang River has been formed.Five to six river terraces in the Hanzhong and Yunxian basins along the flanks of Hanjiang River valleys had been identified and some terraces had been dated by using optically stimulated luminescence(OSL),paleomagnetic,and electron spin resonance(ESR)dating methods,and correlating the pedostratigraphy and magnetic susceptibility with the Luochuan loess section by our team(Sun et al.,2016,2017).These terraces are composed of fluvial deposits overlaid with eolian deposits,and record the evolution history of the Hanjiang River.(Fig.1).This study is aimed to deduce the birth time of the present Hanjiang River by using 26Al/10Be burial dating method to date the highest fluvial terraces of the Hanjiang River.

Molybdenite Re-Os,titanite and garnet U-Pb dating of the Magushan skarn Cu-Mo deposit,Xuancheng district,Middle-Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt

The Magushan skarn Cu-Mo deposit is a representative example of the skarn mineralization occurring within the Xuancheng ore district of the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt of eastern China.The precise age of an ore deposit is important for understanding the timing of mineralization relative to other geological events in a region and to fully place the formation of a mineral deposit within the geological context of other processes that occur within the study area.Here,we present new molybdenite Re-Os and titanite and andradite garnet U-Pb ages for the Magushan deposit and use these data to outline possible approaches for identifying genetic relationships in geologically complex areas.The spatial and paragenetic relationships between the intrusions,alteration,and mineralization within the study area indicates that the formation of the Magushan deposit is genetically associated with the porphyritic granodiorite.However,this is not always the case,as some areas contain complexly zoned plutons with multiple phases of intrusion or mineralization may be distal from or may not have any clear spatial relationship to a pluton.This means that it may not be possible to determine whether the mineralization formed as a result of single or multiple magmatic/hydrothermal events.As such,the approaches presented in this study provide an approach that allows the identification of any geochronological relationships between mineralization and intrusive events in areas more complex than the study area.Previously published zircon U-Pb data for the mineralization-related porphyritic granodiorite in this area yielded an age of 134.2±1.2 Ma(MSWD=1.4)whereas the Re-Os dating of molybdenite from the study area yielded an isochron age of 137.7±2.5 Ma(MSWD=0.43).The timing of the mineralizing event in the study area was further examined by the dating of magmatic accessory titanite and skarn-related andradite garnet,yielding U-Pb ages of 136.3±2.5 Ma(MSWD=3.2)and 135.9±2.7 Ma(MSWD=2.5),respectively.The dating of magmatic and hydrothermal activity within the Magushan area yields ages around 136 Ma,strongly suggesting that the mineralization in this area formed as a result of the emplacement of the intrusion.The dates presented in this study also provide the first indication of the timing of mineralization within the Xuancheng district.providing evidence of a close genetic relationship between the formation of the mineralization within the Xuancheng district and the Early Cretaceous magmatism that occurred in this area.This in turn suggests that other Early Cretaceous intrusive rocks within this region are likely to be associated with mineralization and should be considered highly prospective for future mineral exploration.This study also indicates that the dating of garnet and titanite can also provide reliable geochronological data and evidence of the timing of mineralization and magmatism,respectively,in areas lacking other dateable minerals(e.g.,molybdenite)or where the relationship between mineralization and magmatism is unclear,for example in areas with multiple stages of magmatism,with complexly zoned plutons,and with distal skarn mineralization.

Late Quaternary fluvial terrace formation in the Luan River drainage basin,north China and its possible linkages with climate change and tectonic activation

The Luan River is the most important water system in north-eastern Hebei Province,China and is located in the transitional zone of the Eastern Yan Mountains,North China Plain and Songliao Plain.The well-developed river terraces of its tributary,the Yixun River,provide excellent information for studying neotectonics and climate change.There are seven terraces in the lower reaches of the Yixun River,numbered T7-T1.The optically stimulated luminescence dating results of 23 samples show that terraces T7-T2 formed at 111.36±5.83 ka,78.20±4.45 ka,65.29±4.15 ka,56.44±3.07 ka,40.08±2.66 ka,and 13.14±0.76 ka,respectively.A comparison with the oxygen isotope curves of deep-sea sediments reveals that the sediment formation of each terrace corresponded to cold periods of marine isotope stages MIS 4 and MIS 2 and the relatively cold periods of MIS 5e,MIS 3,and MIS 1.Since the Late Pleistocene,the incision rate of the Yixun River has ranged from 0.371-1.740 mm/a.During the formation of T7-T6,T5-T4,T4-T3,and T3-T2,the incision rate was low.However,in the two stages during which T6-T5 and T2-T1 formed(13.14±0.76 ka to 0.58±0.08 ka and 10.79±0.64 ka to 0.16±0.01 ka),these rates reached 1.554 mm/a and 1.592-1.740 mm/a,respectively.At approximately 30 ka,the activity of the Langying Fault increased,leading to footwall uplift.The river gathered in the north of Langying to form the ancient Erdaowan Lake,which resulted in the drying of the river in the lower reaches of the Yixun River during the last glacial maximum without forming river deposits.In the Early Holocene,headward erosion in the lower reaches of the Yixun River was enhanced,which resulted in the disappearance of the lake,and incised meandering formed due to increased neotectonism.Based on the analyses of river incision and the formation of ancient lakes and incised meandering,it was inferred that there have been three periods of strong tectonism in the river basin since the Late Pleistocene.

Calculation of Agricultural Production Efficiency Based on a Three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis Model and Analysis of the Spatial-temporal Characteristics: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

In response to the strategic call for the " Great Protection" of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and to fulfill the important historical tasks assigned by the state to the provinces and cities of the area,the Yangtze River Economic Belt is adjusting the agricultural industry structure,optimizing the input-output ratio,and ensuring stable and sustainable agricultural production. Based on the combination of the three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis( DEA) model and cluster analysis,this study examined the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2018 to measure its agricultural production efficiency and to analyze its temporal and spatial characteristics. Studies showed that exogenous environmental factors significantly( P < 5%) impacted agricultural production efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,and there were temporal and spatial differences. These included:(1) after excluding environmental factors,the overall agricultural production efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Zone had improved. Sichuan Province and Jiangsu Province were at the forefront of efficiency,whereas the agricultural production efficiency of Shanghai had declined obviously.(2) The agricultural production efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt varied year by year,with fluctuating development. The middle reaches of the Yangtze River had advanced agricultural production efficiency more than the upstream and downstream regions,and the agricultural production efficiency of the individual provinces did not match their economic and social development.(3) Increases in labor,land,irrigation,and other input factors increased agriculture production efficiency,and there was no correlation between fiscal investment,per capita gross domestic product( GDP) and agricultural production efficiency,while the disaster-affected area had a significantly negative impact on agricultural production efficiency.

Flow Pattern and Residence Time of Groundwater within Volta River Basin in Benin(Northwestern Benin)

The knowledge about groundwater flow conditions within Volta river basin in Benin, has restricted information coming to piezometry, water storage time, water path, and water quality. A good groundwater resources assessment of this sudano-sahelian area, is a huge condition for the sustainable management of water resources, which since the part of the 20th century is facing a severe drought that leads to a greater aridity. This article provides a summary with the main elements of carbon isotope (13C and 14C) as well as tritium (3H) coupled with hydrogeological and hydrochemical data. The goal is to improve the initial water recharging and the groundwater flow system within the aquifer. Two main results can be produced from the groundwater chemistry. First, the interactions between groundwater and clay minerals related to the residence time of groundwater are indicated by a slight evolution of Ca-HCO3 and Ca-Mg-HCO3 to Na-HCO3. Beside that towards water types Cl-NO3 indicates the anthropogenic influence on groundwater, related to agricultural activities and sanitation conditions. The carbon-14 activity measured on the TDIC is between 17.29 and 85.47 pmC. Therefore, it contains some samples covering a wide period of time from now to the Holocene implying a continuous system recharging over time. All the data confirm the assumption of a homogeneous, largely unified aquifer system with a multi-layer structure, but it also points out the low resource sustainability and a strong anthropogenic contamination of the most superficial horizons.

黑龙江省主要河流封冻日期变化特征及预测

河冰是冰冻圈的重要组成部分。在气候变暖背景下,对黑龙江省主要河流的封冻日期进行研究,可为该地区防凌减灾提供科学依据。本文基于1962—2020年黑龙江省水文观测站封冻日期观测资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、相关分析方法,探讨了黑龙江省主要河流封冻日期在气象要素的影响下随时间变化的特征,并采用信息扩散理论、线性回归分析方法对封冻日期进行了模拟预测。结果表明,1962—2020年松花江哈尔滨站、嫩江江桥站、黑龙江黑河站和乌苏里江饶河站平均封冻日期在11月12—22日之间,分别在1970年、2005年、2000年、2012年发生突变。1962—2020年黑龙江省四大江的封冻日期均呈推迟趋势,其中江桥站、黑河站封冻日期表现为显著推迟趋势(P<0.05),59年来分别推迟了15 d、8 d,变化速率分别为2.46 d·(10a)^(-1)、1.35 d·(10a)^(-1)。处于纬度相对较高地区的江桥站、黑河站封冻日期主要受11月上旬平均气温、地表气温、最低气温影响,而纬度相对较低的哈尔滨站、饶河站主要受11月中旬平均气温、地表气温、最低气温影响。当负积温为-180℃时,出现封冻的概率达到80%~90%;当负积温达到-240℃时,基本全部冻结。本文基于平均气温、地表气温、最低气温等关键因子所构建的多元线性回归模型预报精度均在80%以上。

1960-2020年黄河流域农业热量资源时空演变特征

[目的]气候变暖将改变农业热量资源的时空分布,对黄河流域农业热量指标进行分析,可为区域合理利用农业气候资源提供依据。[方法]基于1960-2020年黄河流域89个气象站点逐日气象资料,运用线性趋势估计和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了黄河流域年平均气温,≥0℃和≥10℃的初终日、持续日数和有效积温的时空变化特征及其影响因素。[结果]近61 a黄河流域平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃有效积温分别以0.29℃·(10 a)^(-1)、70.23℃·d·(10 a)^(-1)和34.50℃·d·(10 a)^(-1)的倾向率呈上升趋势,≥0℃和≥10℃持续日数呈增加趋势,倾向率分别为3.33 d·(10 a)^(-1)和2.78 d·(10 a)^(-1)。≥0℃和≥10℃初日呈提前趋势,倾向率分别为—2.16 d·(10 a)^(-1)和—2.14 d·(10 a)^(-1),≥0℃和≥10℃终日呈延迟趋势,倾向率分别为1.16 d·(10 a)^(-1)和0.63 d·(10 a)^(-1),≥0℃和≥10℃初日提前的幅度大于终日推迟的幅度,≥0℃初终日和持续日数变化幅度大于≥10℃相应指标变化幅度。近61 a黄河流域年平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃有效积温分别于1996、2003和1997年发生突变。黄河流域上、中、下游地区各热量指标变化趋势与流域整体变化一致,上游地区变化幅度相对较大。从空间分布来看,由上游、中游到下游地区年平均气温逐渐增加,≥0℃和≥10℃有效积温逐渐增加,初日逐渐提前,终日逐渐推迟,持续日数逐渐延长。[结论]黄河流域农业热量资源呈增加趋势,热量指标主要受海拔高度和年平均气温影响。西太平洋副高强度指数、太平洋副高强度指数和东大西洋遥相关型指数是影响近61 a黄河流域农业热量指标变化的主要大气环流因子。

基于深度学习和信号分解的北方寒区河流开河日期预报

中国北方寒区河流春季开河时易产生冰凌现象,威胁涉河水工建筑物的安全。准确地预测寒区河流开河日期可为防凌指挥、调度决策提供重要参考依据。本文基于中国北方典型寒区-黑龙江省的5个代表水文站近60年的历史开河日期序列,采用完全自适应集合经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)技术和深度学习长短期记忆模型(LSTM)方法构建河流开河日期预报的耦合模型,以期提高河流开河日期预报的精度。结果表明:本研究构建的开河日期预报耦合模型(CEEMDAN-LSTM)预测精度明显优于单一深度学习方法(LSTM)计算结果;与LSTM相比,CEEMDAN-LSTM可将开河日期预报的平均绝对误差从2.51 d降低至1.20 d,合格率从91.59%提高至100%。验证期平均绝对误差从3.85 d降低至1.65 d,合格率从88%提高至96%。因此,所构建的开河日期预报耦合模型具有较高的预报精度,可为我国北方寒区春季防凌指挥和调度提供技术支持。

晚中更新世以来武威盆地沉积特征——基于wv3钻孔的释光年代学研究

青藏高原东北缘河西走廊形成了一系列新生代盆地,是研究盆地沉积演化的重要区域。武威盆地位于河西走廊东部,盆地内沉积了较厚的新生代冲洪积地层。为了厘清武威盆地晚中更新世以来的沉积演化历史,笔者等在武威盆地石羊河中—上游处钻取了长207 m的wv3钻孔岩芯,获得了上部17 m岩芯的19个钾长石两步法pIR200 IR290年龄和2个多步法MET-pIRIR年龄,结合粒度资料,重建了武威盆地石羊河流域中—下游晚中更新世以来的光释光年代学框架和沉积历史。结果表明:两步法pIR200 IR290和多步法MET-pIRIR年龄在误差范围内一致。220~128 ka时期,沉积速率最小,为0.35 mm/ka,水动力条件较强,以侵蚀为主;128~108 ka(MIS 5d、MIS 5e)时期沉积速率为1.94 mm/ka,沉积物粒径由粗变细,表明此时水动力条件由强变弱;末次冰盛期到全新世早期(19~9 ka)沉积速率为2.78 mm/ka,沉积物粒径较细,表明此时水动力条件较弱,沉积速率最大,沉积为主。该地区新构造运动比较活跃,在末次间冰期至末次冰盛期期间存在逆冲活动。该研究对于揭示晚中更新世以来祁连山东北部石羊河流域沉积演化特征具有重要意义。

鄱阳湖水道平滩水位与河槽演变及退滩时间分析

平滩水位是判定涨水漫滩及退水归槽的重要指标,为研究鄱阳湖平滩水位及退滩时间变化规律,将湖区自湖口起分别以星子、褚溪河口、棠荫、康山、瑞洪和吴城为界划分为Ⅰ~Ⅵ区。依据1998年和2010年实测地形数据,将各区基于几何标准判断的断面平滩水位对间距进行对数变换的加权平均,得出河段尺度的平滩水位,并据此分析退滩时间的变化,结果表明:各区平滩水位均呈下降趋势,其中Ⅴ区(瑞洪—康山)降幅最显著,下降1.18 m;平滩河槽形态变化以棠荫为界,棠荫以北水道向纵深方向发展,棠荫以南水道基本维持稳定;河相天数除Ⅴ区锐减外,其余各区均呈增加趋势,其中V区平滩水位下降对河相天数的锐减影响显著;Ⅴ区的退滩时间略有推迟,其余各区的退滩时间均有所提前,Ⅰ区(湖口—星子)和Ⅴ区的退滩间隔缩减近30 d。

1981—2022年西藏“一江两河”主要农区农业界限温度变化特征

日平均气温≥10℃是喜温作物适宜生长的下限温度。西藏“一江两河”主要农区≥10℃积温变化是判断该地区热量资源的关键指标。基于1981—2022年该区域9个气象站点的日平均气温数据,使用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析法,分析≥10℃界限温度的气候变化特征。结果表明:(1)随着海拔高度的升高,≥10℃界限温度出现明显垂直地带性特征,包括≥10℃初日推迟、终日提前、持续日数与积温减少。(2)近42 a来,该地区≥10℃初日普遍提前,气候倾向率为-2.53 d·(10 a)-1;终日延后,倾向率为3.33 d·(10 a)-1;持续日数和积温均明显增加,倾向率分别为5.87 d·(10 a)-1、106.19℃·d·(10 a)-1。与青藏高原其他地区相比,这种变化更为明显。(3)20世纪80年代是过去40 a≥10℃初日最迟、终日最早、持续日数最短、积温最少的10 a,与之相对的是21世纪10年代的情况截然相反。(4)≥10℃界限温度的H指数均大于0.65,表明未来≥10℃界限温度初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数延长和积温增加的变化趋势将持续存在。

黄河内蒙古段开河日期预报模型及应用

对黄河内蒙古段的冰情特点进行分析,选用1970—1971年度至2007—2008年度共38个冬季的冰情资料,提取合适的预报因子,分别采用人工神经网络模型和多元线性回归模型,对黄河内蒙古段的开河日期进行预报。结果表明,神经网络模型和多元线性回归模型预报样本合格率分别为86.7%和80.0%,神经网络模型的预报精度高于多元线性回归模型,更适用于黄河内蒙古段开河日期预报。

人工智能冰情预报的预报因子确定

以黑龙江上游漠河站开河日期预报为例,对利用人工智能技术进行冰情预报过程中预报因子的确定方法进行了研究。在成因分析的基础上,先对各影响因素进行适当的概化及量化处理,得出足够数量的影响因子作为待选因子,再采用逐步回归分析法对待选因子进行筛选,即可得到较为理想的预报因子。

基于BP神经网络的流凌开河日期预报模型应用

依据开河机理,结合松花江某水文站的历史资料,建立了该站开河日期预报的BP神经网络模型.应用Levenberg-Marquardt算法改进了BP算法,采用循环递进的方法建立了实用预测模型.经实际流凌开河日期预报的验证表明,循环递进方法建立的实用预测模型能充分利用预报因子的信息和神经网络方法的非线性映射能力,预测精度高,合格率为100%.