Objective To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Methods Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, a...Objective To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Methods Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory (based on evaluation by the Delphi method). Results Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man‐biting rate. Conclusion The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.展开更多
文摘[目的]分析水体和河岸带土壤氮磷的空间异质性,探讨河岸带土壤有机碳、氮、磷含量对水体面源污染的影响程度,为明晰重庆笋溪河水体面源污染状况及其与河岸带土壤的关系提供理论依据。[方法]沿笋溪河采集水样44个、0—20与20—40 cm土层土样各44个,采用内梅罗指数评价了笋溪河水质污染状况,并运用方差分析和多重比较、独立样本t检验、相关性分析和冗余分析等方法研究了河岸带水体不同形态氮、磷,土壤有机碳与氮、磷总量和有效量的空间分布特征,以及水体氮、磷对土壤有机碳与各形态氮、磷及化学计量比的响应。[结果](1)笋溪河水体严重污染,且下游污染较上、中游严重;(2)笋溪河下游水体总氮、总磷和可溶性磷酸盐极显著高于上、中游,下游硝酸盐氮极显著高于中游(p<0.01);(3)下游20—40 cm土层土壤有机碳含量显著高于中游,两个土层土壤有效磷和20—40 cm全磷在各河段间差异显著,而20—40 cm C/P和0—40 cm N/P在上游均显著高于中、下游(p<0.05);0—20 cm土壤有机碳、全氮、硝态氮、全磷和有效磷含量均显著高于20—40 cm(p<0.05),表聚现象明显;(4)相关性分析显示水体各形态氮和总磷与土壤全磷和有效磷呈显著正相关(p<0.05),冗余分析表明土壤有机碳与各形态氮、磷及化学计量比对水体各形态氮、磷的总解释率达64.15%,土壤全磷和有效磷是影响水体面源污染的主导因子。[结论]笋溪河面源污染严重,土壤全磷和有效磷可显著影响水体污染状况,面源污染治理应重点关注河岸带生态系统。
基金supported financially by the Public Project(20080219)of Ministry of Science and Technology in China
文摘Objective To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Methods Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory (based on evaluation by the Delphi method). Results Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man‐biting rate. Conclusion The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.