With the continuous implementation of the PPP projects,due to the imperfection of relevant policies,the blindness of government subsidy is constantly emerging.Thus,it is important to put forward a practical approach f...With the continuous implementation of the PPP projects,due to the imperfection of relevant policies,the blindness of government subsidy is constantly emerging.Thus,it is important to put forward a practical approach for valuing the subsidies and risk.In this paper,the revenue subsidies model and traffic subsidies model are established.Then combined with practical cases,Monte Carlo simulation is used to get the value and probability of government subsidies under different compensation ways.On this basis,the influence of initial traffic volume and traffic growth rate on government subsidies and net present value of investors is analyzed.The research findings can provide theoretical guidance for the government to choose a reasonable way of subsidies,balance the risk of compensation,and formulate subsidies policies.展开更多
Logistics industry has become the driving force of economic growth. However, the logistics industry develops very slowly because the institutional factors have critically hindered the whole development of logistics in...Logistics industry has become the driving force of economic growth. However, the logistics industry develops very slowly because the institutional factors have critically hindered the whole development of logistics industry in China. Institutional factors are regarded as the important factor for logistics cost under the market segmentation of peasant mentality. By comparison of the institutional costs in United States, Japan, India and the Europe, deep reason of high cost behind cost driving force is analyzed. Countermeasure is put forward, such as reducing the prices of domestic toll road, using fuel tax as implemented for highway construction funds, and decreasing the restricted policy for carrying freight cars etc..展开更多
A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of i...A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of interest from the private sector, which are caused by the uncertainties defined as risks surrounding the project. This urges the importance of risk analysis on project investment to describe the measurement of risk allocated to the private sector. This paper aims at measuring the risks impacts on the project viability using Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan （Cisumdawu） Toll Road section as the case and finding some creative way out. By employing Monte Carlo risk analysis technique we are able to measure the risk impact perceived by the private sector through probability distribution of the project NPV and IRR. Based on the result of Monte Carlo analysis on the Cisumdawu toll road, the overall risk impact perceived by the private sector is too much to bear. The risks considered as high-impact are risks on land acquisition, risks on construction, risks on toll revenue, risks on interest rates and disaster risks on post construction phase. The result shows the importance of decreasing the risk level on the mentioned risk that can be done through the increased participation of local government in managing the toll road projects. A creative solution again is needed to strike balance between the interest of private sector and that of public sector to deal with risks.展开更多
基金Soft Science Project of Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province(20RKX0728).
文摘With the continuous implementation of the PPP projects,due to the imperfection of relevant policies,the blindness of government subsidy is constantly emerging.Thus,it is important to put forward a practical approach for valuing the subsidies and risk.In this paper,the revenue subsidies model and traffic subsidies model are established.Then combined with practical cases,Monte Carlo simulation is used to get the value and probability of government subsidies under different compensation ways.On this basis,the influence of initial traffic volume and traffic growth rate on government subsidies and net present value of investors is analyzed.The research findings can provide theoretical guidance for the government to choose a reasonable way of subsidies,balance the risk of compensation,and formulate subsidies policies.
基金This paper was Supported by Chinese Humanities and Social Science Foundation for Youths by Ministry of Education, Mechanism and Institutional arrangements on China＇s low-cost model to achieve economic growth cycle （No. 09YJC630228）, and Basic Research Funds of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law ＂Research on Integrated Controlling of Cost Soot among Organization： Based on Synerzistic Effects of Precession＂.
文摘Logistics industry has become the driving force of economic growth. However, the logistics industry develops very slowly because the institutional factors have critically hindered the whole development of logistics industry in China. Institutional factors are regarded as the important factor for logistics cost under the market segmentation of peasant mentality. By comparison of the institutional costs in United States, Japan, India and the Europe, deep reason of high cost behind cost driving force is analyzed. Countermeasure is put forward, such as reducing the prices of domestic toll road, using fuel tax as implemented for highway construction funds, and decreasing the restricted policy for carrying freight cars etc..
文摘A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of interest from the private sector, which are caused by the uncertainties defined as risks surrounding the project. This urges the importance of risk analysis on project investment to describe the measurement of risk allocated to the private sector. This paper aims at measuring the risks impacts on the project viability using Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan （Cisumdawu） Toll Road section as the case and finding some creative way out. By employing Monte Carlo risk analysis technique we are able to measure the risk impact perceived by the private sector through probability distribution of the project NPV and IRR. Based on the result of Monte Carlo analysis on the Cisumdawu toll road, the overall risk impact perceived by the private sector is too much to bear. The risks considered as high-impact are risks on land acquisition, risks on construction, risks on toll revenue, risks on interest rates and disaster risks on post construction phase. The result shows the importance of decreasing the risk level on the mentioned risk that can be done through the increased participation of local government in managing the toll road projects. A creative solution again is needed to strike balance between the interest of private sector and that of public sector to deal with risks.
