Effect of characteristics and distribution of Mg_(17)Al_(12)precipitates on tensile and bending properties of high-Al-containing Mg alloys

This study investigates the effect of characteristics and distribution of Mg_(17)Al_(12)precipitates on the uniaxial tensile and three-point bending properties of extruded Mg alloys containing high Al contents.The extruded Mg–9Al–1Zn–0.3Mn(AZ91)alloy contains lamellar-structured Mg_(17)Al_(12)discontinuous precipitates along the grain boundaries,which are formed via static precipitation during natural air cooling.The extruded Mg–11Al–1Zn–0.3Mn(AZ111)alloy contains spherical Mg_(17)Al_(12)precipitates at the grain boundaries and inside the grains,which are formed via dynamic precipitation during extrusion.Due to inhomogeneous distribution of precipitates,the AZ111 alloy consists of two different precipitate regions:precipitate-rich region with numerous precipitates and finer grains and precipitate-scarce region with a few precipitates and coarser grains.The AZ111 alloy exhibits a higher tensile strength than the AZ91 alloy because its smaller grain size and more abundant precipitates result in stronger grain-boundary hardening and precipitation hardening effects,respectively.However,the tensile elongation of the AZ111 alloy is lower than that of the AZ91 alloy because the weak cohesion between the dynamic precipitates and the matrix facilitates the crack initiation and propagation.During bending,a macrocrack initiates on the outer surface of bending specimen in both alloys.The AZ111 alloy exhibits higher bending yield strength and lower failure bending strain than the AZ91 alloy.The bending specimens of the AZ91 alloy have similar bending formability,whereas those of the AZ111 alloy exhibit considerable differences in bending formability and crack propagation behavior,depending on the distribution and number density of precipitates in the specimen.In bending specimens of the AZ111 alloy,it is found that the failure bending strain(ε_(f,bending))is inversely proportional to the area fraction of precipitates in the outer zone of bending specimen(A_(ppt)),with a relationship ofε_(f,bending)=–0.1A_(ppt)+5.86.

Precipitates Generation Mechanism and Surface Quality Improvement for Aluminum Alloy 6061 in Diamond Cutting

To improve the surface quality for aluminum alloy 6061(Al6061) in ultra-precision machining, we investigated the factors affecting the surface finish in single point diamond turning(SPDT)by studying influence of the precipitates generation of Al6061 on surface integrity and surface roughness.Based on the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami solid phase transformation kinetics equation, theoretical and experimental studies were conducted to build the relationship between the aging condition and the type, size and number of the precipitates for Al6061. Diamond cutting experiments were conducted to machine Al6061 samples under different aging conditions. The experimental results show that, the protruding on the chip surface is mainly Mg_(2)Si and the scratches on the machined surface mostly come from the iron-containing phase(α-, β-AlFeSi).Moreover, the generated Mg_(2)Si and α-, β-AlFeSi affect the surface integrity and the diamond turned surface roughness. Especially, the achieved surface roughness in SPDT is consistent with the variation of the number of AlFeSi and Mg_(2)Si with the medium size(more than 1 μm and less than 2 μm) in Al6061.

Microstructure,segregation and precipitate evolution in directionally solidified GH4742 superalloy

The evolution of microstructure,elemental segregation,and precipitation in GH4742 superalloy under a wide range of cooling rates was investigated using zonal melting liquid metal cooling(ZMLMC) experiments.Comparing various nickel-based superalloys,the primary dendrite spacing is significantly linearly correlated with G^(-1/2)V^(-1/4) at high cooling rates,where G and V are temperature gradient and drawing rate,respectively.As the cooling rate decreases,the primary dendrite spacing increases in a dispersive manner.The secondary dendrite arm spacing is significantly correlated with(GV)^(-0.4) for all cooling rate ranges.The degree of elemental segregation increases and then decreases as the cooling rate increases,which is due to the competition between solute counter-diffusion and dendrite tip subcooling.With increasing the solidification rate,the size of γ′,carbides,and non-metallic inclusions gradually decreases.The morphology of the γ′ precipitate changes from plume-like to cubic to spherical.The morphology of carbide changes from block to fine-strip then to Chinese-script.The morphology of carbide is controlled by both dendrite interstitial shape and element diffusion.The inclusions are mainly composite inclusions,which usually show the growth of Ti(C,N) with oxide as the heterogeneous nucleation center and carbide on the outer surface of the carbonitride.As the cooling rate increases,the number density of composite inclusions first increases and then decreases,which is closely related to the elemental segregation behavior.

Hardening effects of sheared precipitates on {1121} twinning in magnesium alloys

The interactions between a plate-like precipitate and two twin boundaries(TBs)({1012},{1121}) in magnesium alloys are studied using molecular dynamics(MD) simulations. The precipitate is not sheared by {1012} TB, but sheared by {1121} TB. Shearing on the(110) plane is the predominant deformation mode in the sheared precipitate. Then, the blocking effects of precipitates with different sizes are studied for {1121} twinning. All the precipitates show a blocking effect on {1121} twinning although they are sheared, while the blocking effects of precipitates with different sizes are different. The blocking effect increases significantly with the increasing precipitate length(in-plane size along TB) and thickness, whereas changes weakly as the precipitate width changes. Based on the revealed interaction mechanisms, a critical twin shear is calculated theoretically by the Eshelby solutions to determine which TB is able to shear the precipitate. In addition, an analytical hardening model of sheared precipitates is proposed by analyzing the force equilibrium during TB-precipitate interactions. This model indicates that the blocking effect depends solely on the area fraction of the precipitate cross-section, and shows good agreement with the current MD simulations. Finally, the blocking effects of plate-like precipitates on the {1012} twinning(non-sheared precipitate), {1121} twinning(sheared precipitate) and basal dislocations(non-sheared precipitate) are compared together. Results show that the blocking effect on {1121} twinning is stronger than that on {1012} twinning, while the effect on basal dislocations is weakest. The precipitate-TB interaction mechanisms and precipitation hardening models revealed in this work are of great significance for improving the mechanical property of magnesium alloys by designing microstructure.

Formation and growth of precipitates in a Mg-7Gd-5Y-1Nd-2Zn-0.5Zr alloy aged at 200℃

Crystal structures,growth characteristics,and transformation of the precipitates in a Mg-7Gd-5Y-1Nd-2Zn-0.5Zr(wt.%)alloy aged at 200℃for various durations were investigated using transmission electron microscopy(TEM)and high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy(HAADF-STEM).A detailed Mg-Gd type precipitation sequence for Mg-Gd-Y-Nd-Zn alloys was proposed as follows:supersaturated solid solution→solute clusters→zigzag GP zones+β''(I)→β'→β'+protrusions/joints→pre-β_(1)→β_(1)→β.Solute clusters formed in the early stage of aging consisted of one or more rare-earth(RE)/Zn-rich atomic columns with different configura-tions.RE/Zn-rich solute clusters grew into zigzag GP zones andβ''(I)as aging time extending.The paired-zigzag GP zones might grow up to beβ'precipitates directly.In the peak-and plat-aging stages,the number of solute clusters in the matrix decreased until they disappeared,and most existed as zigzag arrays and super hexagons.Protrusions formed at the end ofβ'at an angle of 120°,then grew into joints when two differentβ'variants encountered together.Protrusions/joints comprise zigzag arrays,super-hexagons,β'F,β''(II),β_(T),and hybrid structures rich in solute atoms,and act as catalysts for the growth of theβ'variants.Largerβ'grow by joints consumption while smallerβ'precipitates dissolve to form joints.β_(1)precipitates essentially evolve from pre-β_(1)precipitates,with four-point diamond structures formed by RE/Zn atomic substitution and atomic migration based on the originalα-Mg structure.

Secondary phase precipitate-induced localized corrosion of pure aluminum anode for aluminum–air battery

Understanding the influence of purities on the electrochemical performance of pure aluminum(Al)in alkaline media for Al–air batteries is significant.Herein,we comprehensively investigate secondary phase precipitate(SPP)-induced localized corrosion of pure Al in NaOH solution mainly based on quasi-in-situ and cross-section observations under scanning electron microscopy coupled with finite element simulation.The experimental results indicate that Al–Fe SPPs appear as clusters and are coherent with the Al substrate.In alkaline media,Al–Fe SPPs exhibit more positive potentials than the substrate,thus aggravating localized galvanic corrosion as cathodic phases.Moreover,finite element simulation indicates that the irregular geometry coupled with potential difference produces the non-uniform current density distribution inside the SPP cluster,and the current density on the Al substrate gradually decreases with distance.

Enhancing corrosion resistance of ZK60 magnesium alloys via Ca microalloying: The impact of nanoscale precipitates

Enhancing corrosion resistance of Mg-Zn alloys with high strength and low cost was critical for broadening their large-scale practical applications. Here we prepared solutionized, peak-and over-aged ZK60 alloys with and without microalloying Ca(0.26 wt.%) to explore the effects of nanoscale precipitates on their corrosion behavior in detail via experimental analyses and theoretical calculations. The results suggested the peak-aged ZK60 alloy with Ca addition showed improved corrosion resistance in comparison with the alloys without Ca,owing to the contribution of Ca on the refinement of precipitates and increase in their number density. Although the precipitates and Mg matrix formed micro-galvanic couples leading to dissolution, the fine and dense precipitates could generate “in-situ pinning” effect on the corrosion products, forming a spider-web-like structure and improving the corrosion inhibition ability accordingly. The pinning effect was closely related to the size and number density of precipitates. This study provided important insight into the design and development of advanced corrosion resistant Mg alloys.

Differences in spring precipitation over southern China associated with multiyear La Ni?a events

Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone(WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and maintenance.SSTA in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Ni?a events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response.

Effect of drying-wetting cycles on pore characteristics and mechanical properties of enzyme-induced carbonate precipitation-reinforced sea sand

Enzyme-induced carbonate precipitation(EICP)is an emanating,eco-friendly and potentially sound technique that has presented promise in various geotechnical applications.However,the durability and microscopic characteristics of EICP-treated specimens against the impact of drying-wetting(D-W)cycles is under-explored yet.This study investigates the evolution of mechanical behavior and pore charac-teristics of EICP-treated sea sand subjected to D-W cycles.The uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)tests,synchrotron radiation micro-computed tomography(micro-CT),and three-dimensional(3D)recon-struction of CT images were performed to study the multiscale evolution characteristics of EICP-reinforced sea sand under the effect of D-W cycles.The potential correlations between microstructure characteristics and macro-mechanical property deterioration were investigated using gray relational analysis(GRA).Results showed that the UCS of EICP-treated specimens decreases by 63.7% after 15 D-W cycles.The proportion of mesopores gradually decreases whereas the proportion of macropores in-creases due to the exfoliated calcium carbonate with increasing number of D-W cycles.The micro-structure in EICP-reinforced sea sand was gradually disintegrated,resulting in increasing pore size and development of pore shape from ellipsoidal to columnar and branched.The gray relational degree suggested that the weight loss rate and UCS deterioration were attributed to the development of branched pores with a size of 100-1000 m m under the action of D-W cycles.Overall,the results in this study provide a useful guidancee for the long-term stability and evolution characteristics of EICP-reinforced sea sand under D-W weathering conditions.

The GNSS PWV retrieval using non-observation meteorological parameters based on ERA5 and its relation with precipitation

The pressure and temperature significantly influence precipitable water vapor(PWV) retrieval. Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) PWV retrieval is limited because the GNSS stations lack meteorological sensors. First, this article evaluated the accuracy of pressure and temperature in 68 radiosonde stations in China based on ERA5 Reanalysis data from 2015 to 2019 and compared them with GPT3model. Then, the accuracy of pressure and temperature calculated by ERA5 were estimated in 5 representative IGS stations in China. And the PWV calculated by these meteorological parameters from ERA5(ERA5-PWV) were analyzed. Finally, the relation between ERA5-PWV and precipitation was deeply explored using wavelet coherence analysis in IGS stations. These results indicate that the accuracy of pressure and temperature of ERA5 is better than the GPT3 model. In radiosonde stations, the mean BIAS and MAE of pressure and temperature in ERA5 are-0.41/1.15 hpa and-0.97/2.12 K. And the mean RMSEs are 1.35 hpa and 2.87 K, which improve 74.77% and 40.58% compared with GPT3 model. The errors of pressure and temperature of ERA5 are smaller than the GPT3 model in bjfs, hksl and wuh2, and the accuracy of ERA5-PWV is improved by 18.77% compared with the GPT3 model. In addition, there is a significant positive correlation between ERA5-PWV and precipitation. And precipitation is always associated with the sharp rise of ERA5-PWV, which provides important references for rainfall prediction.

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Cloud-Type-Dependent 1DVAR Algorithm for Retrieving Hydrometeors and Precipitation in Tropical Cyclone Nanmadol from GMI Data

Understanding the structure of tropical cyclone(TC)hydrometeors is crucial for detecting the changes in the distribution and intensity of precipitation.In this study,the GMI brightness temperature and cloud-dependent 1DVAR algorithm were used to retrieve the hydrometeor profiles and surface rain rate of TC Nanmadol(2022).The Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System(ARMS)was used to calculate the Jacobian and degrees of freedom(△DOF)of cloud water,rainwater,and graupel for different channels of GMI in convective conditions.The retrieval results were compared with the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar(DPR),GMI 2A,and IMERG products.It is shown that from all channels of GMI,rain water has the highest△DOF,at 1.72.According to the radiance Jacobian to atmospheric state variables,cloud water emission dominates its scattering.For rain water,the emission of channels 1–4 dominates scattering.Compared with the GMI 2A precipitation product,the 1DVAR precipitation rate has a higher correlation coefficient(0.713)with the IMERG product and can better reflect the location of TC precipitation.Near the TC eyewall,the highest radar echo top indicates strong convection.Near the melting layer where Ka-band attenuation is strong,the double frequency difference of DPR data reflects the location of the melting.The DPR drop size distribution(DSD)product shows that there is a significant increase in particle size below the melting layer in the spiral rain band.Thus,the particle size may be one of the main reasons for the smaller rain water below the melting layer retrieved from 1DVAR.

Precipitation and anthropogenic activities regulate the changes of NDVI in Zhegucuo Valley on the southern Tibetan Plateau

Whether climate change or anthropogenic activities play a more pivotal role in regulating vegetation growth on the Tibetan Plateau is still controversial.A better understanding on grassland changes at a fine scale may provide important guidance for local government policy and grassland management.Using two of the most reliable satellite NDVI products(MODIS NDVI and SPOT NDVI),we evaluated the dynamic of grasslands in the Zhegucuo valley on the southern Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2020,and analyzed its driving factors and relative influences of climate change and anthropogenic activities.Here,the key indicators of climate change were assumed to be precipitation and temperature.The main results were:(1)the grassland NDVI in Zhegucuo valley did not reflect a significant temporal change during the last 21 years.The variation of precipitation during the early growing season(GSP)resembled that of NDVI,and the GSP was positively correlated with NDVI.At the pixel level,the partial correlation analysis showed that 37.79%of the pixels depicted a positive relationship between GSP and NDVI,while 11.32%of the pixels showed a negative relationship between temperature during the early growing season(GST)and NDVI.(2)In view of the spatial distribution,the areas mainly controlled by GSP were generally distributed in the southern part,while those affected by GST stood in the eastern part,mainly around the Zhegucuo lake where most population in Cuomei County settled down.(3)Decreasing NDVI trends were mainly occurred in alpine steppe at lower elevations rather than alpine meadow at higher elevations.(4)The residual trend(RESTREND)analysis further indicated that the anthropogenic activities played a more pivotal role in regulating the annual changes of NDVI rather than climate factors in this area.Future studies should pay more attention on climate extremes rather than the simple temporal trends.Also,the influence of human activities on alpine grassland needs to be accessed and fully considered in future sustainable management.

Synergistic Interdecadal Evolution of Precipitation over Eastern China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during 1951-2015

By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.

Adaptation analysis and fusion correction method of CMIP6 precipitation simulation data on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

In order to obtain more accurate precipitation data and better simulate the precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau,the simulation capability of 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models of historical precipitation(1982-2014)on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was evaluated in this study.Results indicate that all models exhibit an overestimation of precipitation through the analysis of the Taylor index,temporal and spatial statistical parameters.To correct the overestimation,a fusion correction method combining the Backpropagation Neural Network Correction(BP)and Quantum Mapping(QM)correction,named BQ method,was proposed.With this method,the historical precipitation of each model was corrected in space and time,respectively.The correction results were then analyzed in time,space,and analysis of variance(ANOVA)with those corrected by the BP and QM methods,respectively.Finally,the fusion correction method results for each model were compared with the Climatic Research Unit(CRU)data for significance analysis to obtain the trends of precipitation increase and decrease for each model.The results show that the IPSL-CM6A-LR model is relatively good in simulating historical precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(R=0.7,RSME=0.15)among the uncorrected data.In terms of time,the total precipitation corrected by the fusion method has the same interannual trend and the closest precipitation values to the CRU data;In terms of space,the annual average precipitation corrected by the fusion method has the smallest difference with the CRU data,and the total historical annual average precipitation is not significantly different from the CRU data,which is better than BP and QM.Therefore,the correction effect of the fusion method on the historical precipitation of each model is better than that of the QM and BP methods.The precipitation in the central and northeastern parts of the plateau shows a significant increasing trend.The correlation coefficients between monthly precipitation and site-detected precipitation for all models after BQ correction exceed 0.8.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts from ECMWF in Eastern China

This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.

Assessment of Wet Season Precipitation in the Central United States by the Regional Climate Simulation of the WRFG Member in NARCCAP and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Circulation Biases

Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss possible causes of biases in a WRF-based RCM with a grid spacing of 50 km,named WRFG,from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program(NARCCAP)in simulating wet season precipitation over the Central United States for a period when observational data are available.The RCM reproduces key features of the precipitation distribution characteristics during late spring to early summer,although it tends to underestimate the magnitude of precipitation.This dry bias is partially due to the model’s lack of skill in simulating nocturnal precipitation related to the lack of eastward propagating convective systems in the simulation.Inaccuracy in reproducing large-scale circulation and environmental conditions is another contributing factor.The too weak simulated pressure gradient between the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico results in weaker southerly winds in between,leading to a reduction of warm moist air transport from the Gulf to the Central Great Plains.The simulated low-level horizontal convergence fields are less favorable for upward motion than in the NARR and hence,for the development of moist convection as well.Therefore,a careful examination of an RCM’s deficiencies and the identification of the source of errors are important when using the RCM to project precipitation changes in future climate scenarios.

Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides

Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process;thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth’s surface-atmosphere interaction systems;hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to explore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jordão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modified, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with API and soil moisture, it will be possible to determine thresholds, thus enabling anticipation of landslide occurrences.

Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

The clutch size,incubation behavior of Reeves’s Pheasant(Syrmaticus reevesii) and their responses to ambient temperature and precipitation

Weather conditions play a pivotal role in embryo development and parental incubation costs,potentially impacting the clutch size and incubation behavior of birds.Understanding these effects is crucial for bird conservation.Reeves’ s Pheasant(Syrmaticus reevesii) is a threatened species endemic to China,which is characterized by female-only incubation.However,there is a lack of information regarding the impact of weather conditions on clutch size and incubation behavior in this species.Using satellite tracking,we tracked 27 wild female Reeves’ s Pheasants from 2020 to 2023 in Hubei Province,China.We explored their clutch size and incubation behavior,as well as their responses to ambient temperature and precipitation.Clutch size averaged 7.75 ±1.36,had an association with average ambient temperature and average daily precipitation during the egglaying period,and was potentially linked to female breeding attempts.Throughout the incubation period,females took an average of 0.73 ±0.46 recesses every 24 h,with an average recess duration of 100.80 ±73.37 min and an average nest attendance of 92.98 ±5.27%.They showed a unimodal recess pattern in which nest departures peaked primarily between 13:00 and 16:00.Furthermore,females rarely left nests when daily precipitation was high.Recess duration and nest attendance were influenced by the interaction between daily mean ambient temperature and daily precipitation,as well as day of incubation.Additionally,there was a positive correlation between clutch size and recess duration.These results contribute valuable insights into the lifehistory features of this endangered species.