Accountable capability improvement based on interpretable capability evaluation using belief rule base

A new approach is proposed in this study for accountable capability improvement based on interpretable capability evaluation using the belief rule base(BRB).Firstly,a capability evaluation model is constructed and optimized.Then,the key sub-capabilities are identified by quantitatively calculating the contributions made by each sub-capability to the overall capability.Finally,the overall capability is improved by optimizing the identified key sub-capabilities.The theoretical contributions of the proposed approach are as follows.(i)An interpretable capability evaluation model is constructed by employing BRB which can provide complete access to decision-makers.(ii)Key sub-capabilities are identified according to the quantitative contribution analysis results.(iii)Accountable capability improvement is carried out by only optimizing the identified key sub-capabilities.Case study results show that“Surveillance”,“Positioning”,and“Identification”are identified as key sub-capabilities with a summed contribution of 75.55%in an analytical and deducible fashion based on the interpretable capability evaluation model.As a result,the overall capability is improved by optimizing only the identified key sub-capabilities.The overall capability can be greatly improved from 59.20%to 81.80%with a minimum cost of 397.Furthermore,this paper also investigates how optimizing the BRB with more collected data would affect the evaluation results:only optimizing“Surveillance”and“Positioning”can also improve the overall capability to 81.34%with a cost of 370,which thus validates the efficiency of the proposed approach.

A Health State Prediction Model Based on Belief Rule Base and LSTM for Complex Systems

In industrial production and engineering operations,the health state of complex systems is critical,and predicting it can ensure normal operation.Complex systems have many monitoring indicators,complex coupling structures,non-linear and time-varying characteristics,so it is a challenge to establish a reliable prediction model.The belief rule base(BRB)can fuse observed data and expert knowledge to establish a nonlinear relationship between input and output and has well modeling capabilities.Since each indicator of the complex system can reflect the health state to some extent,the BRB is built based on the causal relationship between system indicators and the health state to achieve the prediction.A health state prediction model based on BRB and long short term memory for complex systems is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the LSTMis introduced to predict the trend of the indicators in the system.Secondly,the Density Peak Clustering(DPC)algorithmis used todetermine referential values of indicators for BRB,which effectively offset the lack of expert knowledge.Then,the predicted values and expert knowledge are fused to construct BRB to predict the health state of the systems by inference.Finally,the effectiveness of the model is verified by a case study of a certain vehicle hydraulic pump.

Important Works About Rules in Rules-Based Optical Proximity Correction

Considering the efficiency and veracity of rules based optical proximity correction (OPC),the importance of rules in rules based OPC is pointed out.And how to select,to construct and to apply more concise and practical rules base is disscussed.Based on those ideas,four primary rules are suggested.Some data resulted in rules base are shown in table.The patterns on wafer are clearly improved by applying these rules to correct mask.OPCL,the automatic construction of the rules base is an important part of the whole rules based OPC system.

A New Safety Assessment Method Based on Belief Rule Base With Attribute Reliability

Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Belief rule base with attribute reliability(BRB-r)is an expert system that provides a useful way for dealing with these three problems.In BRB-r,once the input information is unreliable,the reliability of belief rule is influenced,which further influences the accuracy of its output belief degree.On the other hand,when many system characteristics exist,the belief rule combination will explode in BRB-r,and the BRB-r based safety assessment model becomes too complicated to be applied.Thus,in this paper,to balance the complexity and accuracy of the safety assessment model,a new safety assessment model based on BRB-r with considering belief rule reliability is developed for the first time.In the developed model,a new calculation method of the belief rule reliability is proposed with considering both attribute reliability and global ignorance.Moreover,to reduce the influence of uncertainty of expert knowledge,an optimization model for the developed safety assessment model is constructed.A case study of safety assessment of liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage tank is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the new developed model.

Rule-based Fault Diagnosis of Hall Sensors and Fault-tolerant Control of PMSM

Hall sensor is widely used for estimating rotor phase of permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). And rotor position is an essential parameter of PMSM control algorithm, hence it is very dangerous if Hall senor faults occur. But there is scarcely any research focusing on fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant control of Hall sensor used in PMSM. From this standpoint, the Hall sensor faults which may occur during the PMSM operating are theoretically analyzed. According to the analysis results, the fault diagnosis algorithm of Hall sensor, which is based on three rules, is proposed to classify the fault phenomena accurately. The rotor phase estimation algorithms, based on one or two Hall sensor(s), are initialized to engender the fault-tolerant control algorithm. The fault diagnosis algorithm can detect 60 Hall fault phenomena in total as well as all detections can be fulfilled in 1/138 rotor rotation period. The fault-tolerant control algorithm can achieve a smooth torque production which means the same control effect as normal control mode (with three Hall sensors). Finally, the PMSM bench test verifies the accuracy and rapidity of fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant control strategies. The fault diagnosis algorithm can detect all Hall sensor faults promptly and fault-tolerant control algorithm allows the PMSM to face failure conditions of one or two Hall sensor(s). In addition, the transitions between health-control and fault-tolerant control conditions are smooth without any additional noise and harshness. Proposed algorithms can deal with the Hall sensor faults of PMSM in real applications, and can be provided to realize the fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant control of PMSM.

A Novel Belief Rule-Based Fault Diagnosis Method with Interpretability

Fault diagnosis plays an irreplaceable role in the normal operation of equipment.A fault diagnosis model is often required to be interpretable for increasing the trust between humans and the model.Due to the understandable knowledge expression and transparent reasoning process,the belief rule base(BRB)has extensive applications as an interpretable expert system in fault diagnosis.Optimization is an effective means to weaken the subjectivity of experts in BRB,where the interpretability of BRB may be weakened.Hence,to obtain a credible result,the weakening factors of interpretability in the BRB-based fault diagnosis model are firstly analyzed,which are manifested in deviation from the initial judgement of experts and over-optimization of parameters.For these two factors,three indexes are proposed,namely the consistency index of rules,consistency index of the rule base and over-optimization index,tomeasure the interpretability of the optimizedmodel.Considering both the accuracy and interpretability of amodel,an improved coordinate ascent(I-CA)algorithmis proposed to fine-tune the parameters of the fault diagnosis model based on BRB.In I-CA,the algorithm combined with the advance and retreat method and the golden section method is employed to be one-dimensional search algorithm.Furthermore,the random optimization sequence and adaptive step size are proposed to improve the accuracy of the model.Finally,a case study of fault diagnosis in aerospace relays based on BRB is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Milling Fault Detection Method Based on Fault Tree Analysis and Hierarchical Belief Rule Base

Expert knowledge is the key to modeling milling fault detection systems based on the belief rule base.The construction of an initial expert knowledge base seriously affects the accuracy and interpretability of the milling fault detection model.However,due to the complexity of the milling system structure and the uncertainty of the milling failure index,it is often impossible to construct model expert knowledge effectively.Therefore,a milling system fault detection method based on fault tree analysis and hierarchical BRB(FTBRB)is proposed.Firstly,the proposed method uses a fault tree and hierarchical BRB modeling.Through fault tree analysis(FTA),the logical correspondence between FTA and BRB is sorted out.This can effectively embed the FTA mechanism into the BRB expert knowledge base.The hierarchical BRB model is used to solve the problem of excessive indexes and avoid combinatorial explosion.Secondly,evidence reasoning(ER)is used to ensure the transparency of the model reasoning process.Thirdly,the projection covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategies(P-CMA-ES)is used to optimize the model.Finally,this paper verifies the validity model and the method’s feasibility techniques for milling data sets.

An Application Expert System for Evaluating Effective Factors on Trust in B2C WebsitesTrust, Security, ANFIS, Fuzzy Logic, Rule Based Systems, Electronic Commerce

In new environments of trading, customer's trust is vital for the extended progress and development of electronic commerce. This paper proposes that in addition to known factors of electronic commerce B2C websites such a design of websites, security of websites and familiarity of website influence customers trust in online transactions. This paper presents an application of expert system on trust in electronic commerce. Based on experts’ judgment, a frame of work was proposed. The proposed model applies ANFIS and Mamdani inference fuzzy system to get the desired results and then results of two methods were compared. Two questionnaires were used in this study. The first questionnaire was developed for e-commerce experts, and the second one was designed for the customers of electronic websites. Based on AHP method, Expert Choice software was used to determine the priority of factors in the first questionnaire, and MATLAB and Excel were used for developing the fuzzy rules. Finally, the fuzzy logical kit was used to analyze the generated factors in the model. Our study findings show that trust in EC transactions is strongly mediated by perceived security.

Recognizing Expression Variant and Occluded Face Images Based on Nested HMM and Fuzzy Rule Based Approach

The face recognition with expression and occlusion variation becomes the greatest challenge in biometric applications to recognize people. The proposed work concentrates on recognizing occlusion and seven kinds of expression variations such as neutral, surprise, happy, sad, fear, disgust and angry. During enrollment process, principle component analysis (PCA) detects facial regions on the input image. The detected facial region is converted into fuzzy domain data to make decision during recognition process. The Haar wavelet transform extracts features from the detected facial regions. The Nested Hidden markov model is employed to train these features and each feature of face image is considered as states in a Markov chain to perform learning among the features. The maximum likelihood for the input image was estimated by using Baum Welch algorithm and these features were kept on database. During recognition process, the expression and occlusion varied face image is taken as the test image and maximum likelihood for test image is found by following same procedure done in enrollment process. The matching score between maximum likelihood of input image and test image is computed and it is utilized by fuzzy rule based method to decide whether the test image belongs to authorized or unauthorized. The proposed work was tested among several expression varied and occluded face images of JAFFE and AR datasets respectively.

Rule Based Collector Station Selection Scheme for Lossless Data Transmission in Underground Sensor Networks

There are fundamentally two different communication media in wireless underground sensor networks. The first of these is a solid medium where the sensor nodes are buried underground and wirelessly transmit data from underground to aboveground. The second is an underground medium such as tunnel, cave etc. and the data is transmitted from underground to the aboveground through partially solid medium. The quality of communication is greatly influenced by the humidity of the soil in both environments. The placement of wireless underground sensor nodes at hard-to-reach locations makes energy efficient work compulsory. In this paper, rule based collector station selection scheme is proposed for lossless data transmission in underground sensor networks. In order for sensor nodes to transmit energy-efficient lossless data, rulebased selection operations are carried out with the help of fuzzy logic. The proposed wireless underground sensor network is simulated using Riverbed software, and fuzzy logic-based selection scheme is implemented utilizing Matlab software. In order to evaluate the performance of the sensor network;the parameters of delay, throughput and energy consumption are investigated. Examining performance evaluation results, it is seen that average delay and maximum throughput are accomplished in the proposed underground sensor network. Under these conditions, it has been shown that the most appropriate collector station selection decision is made with the aim of minimizing energy consumption.

Petri net-based representation of rules and verification of consistency

Presents the proposition for verification of consistency based upon an accurate Petri net built for rules using the reachability concept and status equation of Petri net, and illustrates the specific steps of this application with a typical example.

Safety Assessment of Liquid Launch Vehicle Structures Based on Interpretable Belief Rule Base

A liquid launch vehicle is an important carrier in aviation,and its regular operation is essential to maintain space security.In the safety assessment of fluid launch vehicle body structure,it is necessary to ensure that the assessmentmodel can learn self-response rules from various uncertain data and not differently to provide a traceable and interpretable assessment process.Therefore,a belief rule base with interpretability(BRB-i)assessment method of liquid launch vehicle structure safety status combines data and knowledge.Moreover,an innovative whale optimization algorithm with interpretable constraints is proposed.The experiments are carried out based on the liquid launch vehicle safety experiment platform,and the information on the safety status of the liquid launch vehicle is obtained by monitoring the detection indicators under the simulation platform.The MSEs of the proposed model are 3.8000e-03,1.3000e-03,2.1000e-03,and 1.8936e-04 for 25%,45%,65%,and 84%of the training samples,respectively.It can be seen that the proposed model also shows a better ability to handle small sample data.Meanwhile,the belief distribution of the BRB-i model output has a high fitting trend with the belief distribution of the expert knowledge settings,which indicates the interpretability of the BRB-i model.Experimental results show that,compared with other methods,the BRB-i model guarantees the model’s interpretability and the high precision of experimental results.

A New Prediction System Based on Self-Growth Belief Rule Base with Interpretability Constraints

Prediction systems are an important aspect of intelligent decisions.In engineering practice,the complex system structure and the external environment cause many uncertain factors in the model,which influence the modeling accuracy of the model.The belief rule base(BRB)can implement nonlinear modeling and express a variety of uncertain information,including fuzziness,ignorance,randomness,etc.However,the BRB system also has two main problems:Firstly,modeling methods based on expert knowledge make it difficult to guarantee the model’s accuracy.Secondly,interpretability is not considered in the optimization process of current research,resulting in the destruction of the interpretability of BRB.To balance the accuracy and interpretability of the model,a self-growth belief rule basewith interpretability constraints(SBRB-I)is proposed.The reasoning process of the SBRB-I model is based on the evidence reasoning(ER)approach.Moreover,the self-growth learning strategy ensures effective cooperation between the datadriven model and the expert system.A case study showed that the accuracy and interpretability of the model could be guaranteed.The SBRB-I model has good application prospects in prediction systems.

Operational effectiveness evaluation based on the reduced conjunctive belief rule base

To address the issue of rule premise combination explosion in the construction of the traditional complete conjunctive belief rule base(BRB),this paper introduces an orthogonal design method to reduce the conjunctive BRB.The reasoning method based on reduced conjunctive BRB is designed with the help of the conversion technology from conjunctive BRB to disjunctive BRB.Finally,the operational mission effectiveness evaluation is taken as an example to verify the proposed method.The results show that the method proposed in this paper is feasible and effective.

A Processor Performance Prediction Method Based on Interpretable Hierarchical Belief Rule Base and Sensitivity Analysis

The prediction of processor performance has important referencesignificance for future processors. Both the accuracy and rationality of theprediction results are required. The hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB)can initially provide a solution to low prediction accuracy. However, theinterpretability of the model and the traceability of the results still warrantfurther investigation. Therefore, a processor performance prediction methodbased on interpretable hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB-I) and globalsensitivity analysis (GSA) is proposed. The method can yield more reliableprediction results. Evidence reasoning (ER) is firstly used to evaluate thehistorical data of the processor, followed by a performance prediction modelwith interpretability constraints that is constructed based on HBRB-I. Then,the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is used to optimize the parameters.Furthermore, to test the interpretability of the performance predictionprocess, GSA is used to analyze the relationship between the input and thepredicted output indicators. Finally, based on the UCI database processordataset, the effectiveness and superiority of the method are verified. Accordingto our experiments, our prediction method generates more reliable andaccurate estimations than traditional models.

The Algorithm for Rule-base Refinement on Fuzzy Set

In the course of running an artificial intelligent system many redundant rules are often produced. To refine the knowledge base, viz. to remove the redundant rules, can accelerate the reasoning and shrink the rule base. The purpose of the paper is to present the thinking on the topic and design the algorithm to remove the redundant rules from the rule base. The “abstraction” of “state variable”, redundant rules and the least rule base are discussed in the paper. The algorithm on refining knowledge base is also presented.

RTTRS: Rule-based Train Traffic Rescheduling Simulator

Train traffic rescheduling is a complicated and large-scaled combinatorial problem. According to the characteristics of China railway system and from the point of practical use, this paper introduces a rule-based train traffic reschedule interactive simulator. It can be used as a powerful training tool to train the dispatcher and to carry out experimental analysis. The production rules are used as the basic for describing the processes to be simulated. With the increase of rule, users can easily upgrade the simulator by adding their own rules.

Improving Rule Base Quality to Enhance Production Systems Performance

Production systems have a special value since they are used in state-space searching algorithms and expert systems in addition to their use as a model for problem solving in artificial intelligence. Therefore, it is of high importance to consider different techniques to improve their performance. In this research, rule base is the component of the production system that we aim to focus on. This work therefore seeks to investigate this component and its relationship with other components and demonstrate how the improvement of its quality has a great impact on the performance of the production system as a whole. In this paper, the improvement of rule base quality is accomplished in two steps. The first step involves re-writing the rules having conjunctions of literals and producing a new set of equivalent rules in which long inference chains can be obtained easily. The second step involves augmenting the rule base with inference short-cut rules devised from the long inference chains. These inference short-cut rules have a great impact on the performance of the production system. Finally, simulations are performed on randomly generated rule bases with different sizes and goals to be proved. The simulations demonstrate that the suggested enhancements are very beneficial in improving the performance of production systems.

Representing the Knowledge of Public Construction Project Cost Estimator by Using Rule-Based Method

Despite the presence of various construction project cost estimate softwares, human experience and knowledge cannot be disregarded. This fact has been proven in practice, where the success of construction cost estimate process is mainly based on knowledge of human estimator. The main question concerns what human knowledge determines the success of the construction cost estimation process. To address this question we have applied Delphi technique and the output is eleven factors that are enough to precisely represent construction cost estimator knowledge. Then we have used First Order Logic (FOL) to represent these factors in terms of predicates and rules. These FOL rules could be used for evaluating construction cost estimator knowledge in five classes: fail, pass, acceptable, good, and very good. As a validation process we have done experiments using history data and the results have proved the accuracy of our proposed method.