基于Gamma Test的非线性降雨径流回归模型研究

Gamma Test是一个与模型无关的数据分析方法,可以解决建立回归模型时面对的模型精度评价、划分率定和验证的数据及模型输入因子选择这三个问题。本文以英国的River Tone流域为例,应用Gamma Test方法分析数据,指导建立双层BP神经网络降雨-径流模型。结果表明,Gamma Test可以指导优化输入因子,精简模型结构,防止过拟合。

The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.

Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff in the North of Tianshan,Xinjiang

[Objective] The aim was to study climate changes in northern Tianshan in Xinjiang and its influences on runoff. [Methed] Based on the runoff data for 54 years of Kenswatt station on Manas River and the climate date of 16 meteorological stations from 1957 to 2007 in the north of Tian- shan in Xinjiang, the climate change and temporal series of the annual runoff were studied by use of nonparametric test, wavelet analysis, R/S analysis and periodic trend superposition model. [ Result] The temperature, precipitation and annual runoff of Manas River increased significantly. The Hurst coefficients of both climate factors and the annual runoff were bigger than 0.5, which indicated that they would still keep an increasing trend. Temperature from 1957 to 1959 was low, precipitation was much, belonging to low temperature and more rain period. 1960s and 1970s were low temperature and less rain period. Temperature in 1980s was close to average value and precipitation was little. Since 1990s, it entered into high temperature and less rain period and was significant during 2000 and 2007. The temperature and precipitation changed in 1995 and 1996. Tempera- ture was＇significant in 11 and 22 years. Precipitation had 5, 8, 14 and 22 years of main cycle. The annual runoff and climate factors in Manasi River were increasing in different times. The annual runoff was related to climate factors, and temperature was closer to annual runoff than precipitation. [ Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the reasonable configuration, ecological protection and agricultural production of water re- sources in north Tianshan in Xinjiang.

Runoff Characteristics of the Nen River Basin and its Cause

Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004,the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze variations in the characteristics and factors influencing runoff.Specifically,the general characteristics list as:The distribution of runoff was found to be uneven within a year,and the annual variation showed an overall decreasing trend.The abrupt change points of runoff were found to be in the early 1960s,middle 1980s and late 1990s.Multiple time scales analysis revealed three time-scale cycles,a long-term cycle of about 20-35 years with a scale center of 25 years,another cycle of about 8-15 years with a scale center of 11 years and a short-term cycle of about 5 years.Based on the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients figure of the 25-year time scale,it is preliminarily estimated that the Nen River Basin will enter a high flow period in 2013.The results obtained using various methods were consistent with each other.The physical causes of the results were also analyzed to confirm their accuracy.

Association of North Atlantic Oscillations with Aksu River runoff in China

The relationship between North Atlantic Oscillations （NAO） and Aksu River Runoff （ARR） was investigated by using the wavelet transform （WT）, cross wavelet transform （CWT）, correlation and linear trend analyses, and abrupt change test. The main results are as follows the interannual/decadal variation and period analyses of ARR and NAO reveal that the both were close correlated each other; the CWT indicates that the correlation was good between ARR and NAO at all periods in the 1990s, because the significant correlation areas mainly concentrated in the 1990s; the variations in the trend strength of ARR and NAO were consistent; the abrupt change of NAO was also temporally consistent with that of ARR, which exerted impact on the Aksu River Basin （ARB） climate and then the ARR through atmospheric circulation variation.

疏勒河流域径流量和输沙量变化规律

[目的]探索疏勒河流域水沙变化特性,可为国家实施西部生态安全战略提供科学支撑。[方法]基于疏勒河流域昌马堡、潘家庄、党城湾3个水文站的实测径流量和输沙量序列资料,运用滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变趋势检验和小波分析法等方法,分析了疏勒河流域径流量和输沙量变化规律。[结果]疏勒河流域年径流量和年输沙量均呈递增趋势,且输沙量增大趋势大于径流量,昌马堡、潘家庄、党城湾3个水文站径流量分别在1999年、2016年、1982年发生突变,昌马堡和潘家庄年输沙量突变均发生在1998年,党城湾输沙量没有突变;疏勒河流域3个代表站的径流量和输沙量都呈现出多时间尺度的演化特征,昌马堡径流量主周期为58 a,31 a,14 a,9 a和5 a,输沙量主周期为48 a,23 a,14 a,7 a和5 a,潘家庄径流量主周期为59 a,32 a,14 a,输沙量主周期为37 a,14 a,8 a和5 a,党城湾径流量主周期为42 a和5 a,输沙量主周期为16 a和8 a。[结论]疏勒河流域水沙总体呈递增趋势,且存在明显的周期变化,除党城湾的输沙量没有突变发生以外,其余站点水沙均有突变发生,同一水文站输沙量的突变的发生滞后于径流量的突变。

石羊河下游蔡旗站径流变化趋势及影响因素

石羊河下游是资源性缺水最严重的地区,水资源对当地社会经济发展的约束作用十分显著。以石羊河下游蔡旗水文站1956—2020年径流序列数据为基础,采用滑动t检验法、累计距平法和M-K突变检验法分析蔡旗水文站径流量变化趋势、突变年份,利用Morlet小波法分析径流量的周期变化,利用双累计曲线法和相关分析法对径流量变化的影响因素进行探究。结果表明:(1)1956—2020年蔡旗水文站年径流量总体呈先减少后增加的趋势,春夏秋三季的径流量亦呈先减少后增加的趋势,冬季则呈波动减少趋势。(2)蔡旗水文站径流量以46 a为第一主周期,存在于整个研究期,丰枯波动变化明显。(3)蔡旗水文站径流量于1972年、2010年发生了两次明显突变,第一次突变后径流量明显减小,第二次突变后径流量明显增加。(4)在研究区气候不断变化的背景下,土地利用变化、跨流域调水引水、产业结构与种植业结构调整、灌区节水等人类活动是引起蔡旗水文站径流量变化的主要原因。研究结果可为流域管理部门合理制定水资源分配及调用方案提供科学依据。

An Evaluation of Manure Management Strategies, Phosphorus Surface Runoff Potential and Water Usage at an Arkansas Discovery Dairy Farm

Manure management is an essential component of dairy production. Nutrient-laden, field-applied dairy manure often serves as a fertilizer source, but can also pose environmental threats if not properly managed. The Haak dairy farm, located in Decatur, Arkansas, was granted a permit by the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) to employ a unique method in treating and storing cattle manure generated during the milking process. This method includes minimizing water use in wash water, dry scraping solids to combine with sawdust for composting and pumping effluent underground into a sloped concrete basin that serves as secondary solid separator before transporting the manure effluent into an interception trench and an adjacent grassed field to facilitate manure nutrient uptake and retention. The Arkansas Discovery Farm program (ADF) is conducting research to evaluate the environmental performance of the dairy’s milk center wash water treatment system (MCWW) by statistical analysis, characterization of phosphorus (P) migration in soil downslope from the inception trench, temperature measurements, and nutrient analysis of a stored dry stack manure/sawdust mixture. Goals included determining possible composting effectiveness along with comparisons to untreated dairy manure and quantifying the use of on-farm water. Results from this research demonstrated that: 1) The MCWW was effective at retaining manure-derived nutrients and reducing field nutrient migration as the MCWW interception trench had significantly higher total nitrogen (TN) (804.2 to 4.1), total phosphorus (TP) (135.6 to 1.5), and water extractable phosphorus (WEP) (55.0 to 1.0) concentrations in milligrams per liter (mg⋅L-1) than the downhill freshwater pond respectively;2) temperature readings of the manure dry stack indicated heightened levels of microbial and thermal activity, but did not reach a standard composting temperature of 54°C;3) manure dry stack nutrient content was typically higher than untreated dairy manure when measured on a “dry basis” in ppm, but was lower on an “as is basis” in ppm and kg/metric ton;and 4) water meter readings showed that the greatest use of on-farm water was for farm-wide cattle drinking (18.77), followed by water used in the milking center (3.45) and then followed by human usage (0.02) measured in cubic meters per day (m3⋅d-1). These results demonstrate that practical innovations in agricultural engineering and environmental science, such as the Haak dairy’s manure treatment system, can effectively reduce environmental hazards that accompany the management of manure at this dairy operation.

新安江流域气象干旱和水文干旱特征及两者之间的关系研究

新安江流域是传统丰水区,对该区域进行干旱演变规律以及气象-水文干旱传播特征及其响应关系的研究,对于流域水资源的调度和管理具有重要科学意义。基于新安江流域近63 a的降水和径流数据,利用标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI)和标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI),研究不同时间尺度的新安江气象干旱和水文干旱的演变规律,并分析流域水文干旱对气象干旱的时滞效应。结果表明:(1)1960—2022年新安江流域的气象干旱和水文干旱主要发生在20世纪60年代、70年代末到80年代中期以及21世纪初,2010年至今新安江整体处于水资源丰盈状态,其余时段则干旱与湿润交替发生。(2)近63 a的数据显示,新安江流域总体呈现变湿趋势,干旱事件有所减少。其中冬季和夏季变湿最为明显,且水文角度变湿趋势比气象角度更为明显。(3)新安江流域的水文干旱与气象干旱显著相关,通常在气象干旱发生后1~3个月出现。水文干旱对气象干旱在汛期的相关性和响应速度均高于非汛期。因此,应更加关注汛期的流域干旱并采取针对性措施。

1958-2022年黄河头道拐水文站水沙特征分析及预测

[目的]探究黄河头道拐水文站径流量与输沙量演变特征,为区域水资源合理规划提供理论依据。[方法]基于1958—2022年径流输沙数据,采用非参数检验方法与CEEMDAN法研究了头道拐水文站水沙趋势、突变及周期变化特征,并通过水沙月值数据构建Informer预测模型。[结果](1)年径流量与年输沙量的M-K统计量分别为-3.380,-5.067。年径流量和年输沙量分别于1986年、1968年和1986年发生突变,下降率分别为36%,44.38%和61.32%。(2)使用CEEMDAN法对径流量与输沙量年值序列进行分解后均得到3个IMF分量与1个RES分量,水沙序列的3个IMF分量平均周期分别为3.69 a,7.67 a,30 a和3.41 a,7.5 a,26 a;水沙月值序列经过分解后得到7个IMF分量,短周期为3.46月与3.61月,长周期为226.33月与184.50月,主导周期为7.25月和8.09月。(3)模型构建后发现径流的预测精度高于输沙,原因是输沙量受影响因素众多,变动幅度更大,较径流量预测难度大。[结论]黄河头道拐水文站水沙存在显著下降趋势,主要归因于降水影响,且序列突变节点与上游水库建成密切相关。

基于Morris与正交试验的SWMM模型参数敏感性分析

为研究暴雨洪水模型中参数对模拟结果的影响,提高模型预测的精确性,以宁波市慈城新城为研究区域,基于SWMM模型,模拟了不同重现期及3种单峰雨型的设计降雨,利用修正Morris法和正交试验设计法对比分析了研究区内6个水文参数的局部与全局敏感性及变化趋势。结果表明:研究区流域径流系数的敏感参数为MaxRate、N-Perv和MinRate,三者具有高度显著影响,且敏感性随着降雨重现期的增加而减弱。同一重现期降雨下,雨峰位置不同导致参数敏感性变化规律有所不同。针对后峰雨型,Dstore-Imperv、Dstore-Perv和N-Imperv敏感性随重现期的增加而增强;前峰雨型和对称雨型反之。两种方法均能识别模型主要敏感参数,正交试验设计法更能定量描述参数影响的显著性水平。

Ng-Perron单位根检验在径流序列非平稳性分析中的应用

在全球气候变化和高强度人类活动的共同影响下,许多流域天然水循环过程受到破坏。径流序列呈现明显的非平稳特性,给水资源规划、管理、预测和调控带来一定的挑战。揭示径流序列的非平稳特性可以有效应对全球气候变化下的复杂水问题,对降低水文分析难度和提高径流预测精度具有十分重要的意义。研究以汾河上游兰村站为研究对象,分析该站1958-2016年年径流和月径流序列是否平稳。首先从随机水文学角度,采用Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析法识别径流序列的趋势、突变和周期特征。在此基础上,从统计水文学角度引入Ng-Perron单位根检验方法。通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验和散点图法选择合适的检验方程,对径流序列进行广义最小二乘法(Generalized Least Squares,GLS)退势,并利用修正的信息准则(Modified information criterion,MIC)计算最优时间滞后阶数,判别径流序列是否具有非平稳性。结果显示,径流序列存在趋势、突变和周期成分,为非平稳径流序列。同时Ng-Perron单位根检验表明,该站年、月径流序列在1%显著性水平上具有非平稳特性。相较传统单位根检验方法,Ng-Perron单位根检验采用更为稳健的修正检验统计量,显著调整小样本情况下水平扭曲的现象,具有更好检验水平和功效,因而可以得到更合理的检验结果。研究成果为径流序列非平稳性检验理论的进一步改进及径流预测模型发展与应用提供参考。

降雨入渗-地表径流下延安卸荷黄土边坡侵蚀演化特征

明确卸荷黄土边坡降雨侵蚀规律对地质灾害防治和流域生态治理具有重要意义。以延安卸荷黄土边坡降雨侵蚀灾害为研究背景,利用自行开发的降雨入渗-地表径流黄土边坡试验平台,研究降雨强度、降雨历时对卸荷黄土边坡入渗量、径流量、土壤流失量以及坡体含水率的影响,揭示降雨作用下卸荷黄土边坡侵蚀演化规律。研究结果表明:1)降雨初期坡面雨水以入渗为主,入渗量约为地表径流量的2~8倍;随着降雨历时增加,地表径流量呈增加趋势,雨水入渗量呈减少趋势;短历时强降雨条件下地表径流量小于入渗量,而持续强降雨条件下地表径流量大于入渗量。2)坡面侵蚀产沙量与降雨强度呈正相关关系,持续强降雨条件下的土壤流失量约为短历时强降雨的10.81倍。3)地表土体含水率随降雨次数增加呈现快速增长到缓慢增长再到平稳状态的发展过程,随降雨强度降低呈减小趋势;相同雨强下,持续强降雨下的地表土体含水率较短历时强降雨增长了9.62%;坡面中、底部浅层土体含水率增长速率高于坡面顶部。4)持续强降雨下边坡侵蚀灾变演化过程为雨水入渗→浅表层土体增湿→坡面密集溅蚀坑→地表径流→浅、细、短的侵蚀沟槽→深、宽、长的侵蚀沟槽→坡体浅层滑塌,坡面侵蚀破坏范围表现为由坡脚向坡顶逐渐后退。

邯郸多个水文站近60年径流量变化特征分析

漳卫河水系和子牙河水系是邯郸河流的重要组成部分,为探究其径流量的变化特征,选取刘家庄、观台、东武仕、木鼻四个水文站近60 a实测径流量为研究对象,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall检验法、Morlet小波分析法从趋势性、突变性、周期性的角度分别对其变化特征进行分析,结果表明:(1)在1956-2016年间,刘家庄、观台、东武仕三站的年径流量均呈现出下降的趋势,而木鼻站的年径流量呈现出上升趋势。(2)刘家庄、观台、木鼻站年径流量序列的突变年份分别为1972年、1978年、1956年和2002年,东武仕站年径流量序列不存在突变年份。(3)刘家庄站和东武仕站年径流量序列周期大致为14 a,观台站和木鼻站年径流量序列周期大致为13年。(4)流域的年径流量总体呈现出下降的趋势,突变多发生在70年代,径流周期为14 a左右。

1956—2016年祁连山南坡河流径流变化特征研究

基于1956—2016年祁连山南坡扎马什克、祁连、尕日得、青石嘴4个水文站的径流量数据,利用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,探讨了祁连山南坡4个水文站径流量的季节、多年平均以及Mann-Kendall突变性的变化特征。结果表明:(1)扎马什克、祁连、尕日得和青石嘴4个水文站径流量均呈逐年增加的趋势,变化倾向率分别为0.337亿m^(3)·(10a)^(–1)、0.18亿m^(3)·(10a)^(–1)、0.103亿m^(3)·(10a)^(–1)和0.295亿m^(3)·(10a)^(–1),其中青石嘴水文站多年平均径流量较高,为16.39亿m^(3),祁连水文站多年平均径流量较低,为4.57亿m^(3)。(2)从季节(由于尕日得站数据缺失,仅分析夏季)变化特征来看,61a来春季扎马什克和青石嘴水文站呈略微减少的趋势,减少倾向率分别为0.005·(10a)^(–1)、0.007·(10a)^(–1),祁连水文站呈略微增加的趋势,增加倾向率为0.016·(10a)^(–1);夏季扎马什克、祁连、尕日得和青石嘴4个水文站增加倾向率分为0.202·(10a)^(–1)、0.055·(10a)^(–1)、0.112·(10a)^(–1)、0.064·(10a)^(–1);秋季扎马什克、祁连和青石嘴3个水文站增加倾向率分为0.134·(10a)^(–1)、0.08·(10a)^(–1)、0.155·(10a)^(–1);冬季扎马什克、祁连和青石嘴3个水文站增加倾向率为0.007·(10a)^(–1)、0.027·(10a)^(–1)、0.087·(10a)^(–1)。(3)Mann-Kendall突变检验曲线来看,马什克、祁连和青石嘴3个水文站在UF和UB两条统计量在0.05显著性临界值直线之间径流量均发生突变,突变年份分别为2010年、1995年和2014年。

基于Maan-Kendall检验和小波功率谱分析的滏阳河径流量变化研究

选用滏阳河流域典型水文站1961年~2020年的逐月径流量资料,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、Morlet小波分析法,探究滏阳河年径流量变化特征。结果表明,河北省近60年来径流量总体呈波状减少趋势,并以-0.112亿m^(3)/a的速率递减,但并不显著(P>0.05)。其多年平均径流量为14.96亿m^(3),丰枯变化与季节性降水、年际降水量丰度密切相关。径流量演变存在多个阶段性特征,但并未通过突变特征检验。其变化周期以3 a~5 a的短周期为主,此周期为7 a~8a和14 a。

基于空间插值与SVM的地表径流水质多传感器融合检测

在地表径流水质检测中,不同类型传感器数据冗余,导致水质检测结果准确性受限且灵敏度较低,由此设计了基于空间插值与SVM的地表径流水质多传感器融合检测。首先,构建世界坐标系与空间变异函数,分析地表径流空间变异特征,全面获取地表径流的水体样本数据;其次,依据水质分布情况,构造出空间插值的连续数据曲面,缩短数据间隔距离,通过融合连续数据曲面,得到具有空间性、实时性和多源性的准确水质参数数据;然后,构建SVM算法寻找最优超平面,划分高灵敏性分隔水质参数数据,解析相应的水质参数并进行表征,得到地表径流水质多传感器融合检测结果。由实验结果可知,地表径流水质检测结果的综合评价值在0.5以下,检出限结果最高仅为28.6 mg/L,最低能够达到22.2 mg/L。水质检测灵敏度较高,满足了地表径流水质管理工作的现实需求。

黄河流域径流量变化特征分析

水资源在流域生态保护和高质量发展中非常重要,明晰流域径流量变化特征将更有利于水资源的充分利用。黄河流域上游径流量的主要影响因素为气候变化,中游与下游的主要影响因素为人类活动,通过Mann-Kendall突变检验、累计距平和小波分析方法,对黄河流域代表性站点(头道拐、花园口、利津)1960~2020年的径流量数据进行分析,研究了3站60年内的径流序列演变规律。研究结果表明:本文所选用的3个站点的60年内径流量呈现逐渐减少的趋势,表现较明显的是下游径流量变化;3站径流量分别在1985年、1985年和1977年发生突变,并在1995年、1992年和1986年发生显著性减少;此3站的第一主周期是20年、15年、15年。

柏叶口水库控制流域1952-2021年径流特征

本文利用多种指标对柏叶口水库控制流域1952-2021年(70 a)的径流资料进行年内年际变化特征分析。采用线性相关检验法、Mann-Kendall检验法、Spearman秩次相关检验法对柏叶口水库径流量变化趋势分析,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验对柏叶口水库径流量进行变异分析,采用小波变换对柏叶口水库径流量进行周期性分析。结果表明:柏叶口水库径流年内分配极不均匀,径流主要集中在7-9月,多数年份径流量峰值出现在8月,少数年份径流量峰值出现在7月、9月,极个别年份径流量峰值出现在10月。70 a来,柏叶口水库年径流量总体上呈现较为显著的下降趋势,突变年份为1970年,主要周期为4 a、7 a和37 a,在37 a的时间尺度下,2019年以后柏叶口水库入库径流偏少。

中洲河流域降水径流变化趋势特征分析

以中洲河流域1970—2021年长系列年径流、逐月降水量等资料为基础数据,分析流域降水径流年际变化和年内分配规律,并应用Mann-Kendall法对流域降水、径流变化特征进行分析,结果表明:①中洲河流域多年平均降水量为2222 mm,多年平均径流量为11.92亿m^(3),多年平均径流深为1356 mm;年降水量及年径流量年际变化很大,年内分配不均匀;②流域全年、汛期、枯水期径流量总体呈下降趋势,其中枯水期下降趋势显著;③流域全年及枯水期降水量总体呈上升趋势,其中枯水期上升趋势显著;④20世纪90年代以后,流域枯水期降水量和径流量突变特征差异明显,枯水期水文规律受人类活动影响明显。