The impact and heterogeneity analysis of digital financial inclusion on non-farm employment of rural labor

This study examines the effects of digital financial inclusion on non-farm employment of rural labor and the mediating mechanism of innovation and entrepreneurship activity using China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and the provincial index of digital financial inclusion.Through the empirical test of the Probit model and mediation effect model,we found that:firstly,digital financial inclusion can promote non-farm employment of rural labor,with the level of digitalization having the most significant impact;secondly,by encouraging innovation and entrepreneurial activity,digital financial inclusion can promote non-farm employment of rural labor;thirdly,the driving effect of digital financial inclusion on non-farm employment of rural labor is more pronounced among the unmarried,eastern region,and male labor.Therefore,we should improve the construction of rural digital infrastructure and accelerate the development of inclusive rural finance to promote more diversified non-farm employment options for“disadvantaged groups”;encourage and support innovation at the government level,and create a favorable atmosphere for innovation and entrepreneurship.Simultaneously,farmers’digital literacy and financial knowledge should be improved so that more can adopt and take advantage of digital financial inclusion.

Off-farm employment and poverty alleviation in rural China

Two phenomena in the history of China's economic growth during the last four decades are the increase in the share of offfarm employment and the progress in poverty alleviation in rural China.Although both of them have been well documented in the literature,less is known about the linkage between the two.To better understand the role that off-farm employment has played in poverty alleviation in rural China is critically important not only for China but also for those countries that are trying to reduce poverty.Here,we examine the impact of off-farm employment on poverty alleviation in rural China.Using the data from two nationally representative household panel surveys(China National Rural Survey and China Rural Development Survey),this paper provides supporting evidence that off-farm employment contributes to poverty alleviation in rural China.Specifically,if household participation in off-farm employment increases by 10 percentage points,the likelihood for a nonpoor household to fall into poverty will decrease by 0.88 percentage point whereas the likelihood for a poor household to climb out of poverty will increase by 3.5 percentage points.In a word,off-employment can not only prevent rural residents to fall into poverty but also help those already in poverty climb out of it.

Childcare,Elderly Caring and Off-farm Employment of Rural Couples in China

Based on the representative sample survey data of more than 1 000 farmers in 101 villages of 25 counties of 5 provinces in China,within the framework of family collective decision-making,this paper studied the effects and heterogeneity of childcare and elderly caring on the off-farm employment mode of rural couples. It found that caring the children younger than 3 years old significantly reduces the possibility of offfarm employment of rural couples;conversely,if there is 60-80 years old member in the family,it will significantly increase the possibility of off-farm employment of rural couples or the wives. Caring the children above 12 years old or the elderly older than 80 years old reduces the possibility of off-farm employment of the husbands. Whether there is preschool education service facility in the village has no effect on the off-farm employment of the couples.

Regional rural transformation and its association with household income and poverty incidence in Indonesia in the last two decades

Increasing rural household income and reducing poverty rank among Indonesia’s top development priorities.Promoting rural transformation is one strategic policy framework to achieve these goals.In the last three decades,agricultural production has shifted from low-value food crops to high-value commodities,such as horticulture,estate crops,and livestock.Previous studies have analyzed rural transformation in Indonesia at the national level,but information on the magnitudes of impact across regions remains scarce.This study aims to analyze the changes in rural transformation at a regional level in the past two decades.The research utilizes secondary data from Statistics Indonesia(BPS),covering 34 provinces from 2000 to 2020,analyzed using descriptive and panel data regression analyses.The results show an increasing trend in the share of high-value agriculture(RT_(1))and rural non-farm employment(RT_(2)).Both RT_(1)and RT_(2)are positively associated with the growth of rural household income and a lower poverty rate.However,the speed of structural transformation(ST),RT_(1),RT_(2),rural income growth,and poverty reduction vary across regions.This research implies that improving rural income and reducing poverty should be done by integrating policies,i.e.,promoting highvalue agriculture and expanding rural non-farm employment.Particular attention should also be given to provinces with slow growth in ST,RT_(1),RT_(2),and rural household income.

Rural transformation,income growth,and poverty reduction by region in China in the past four decades

China has experienced rapid rural transformation in the past four decades.Accompanying the rapid transformation is a significant rise in rural household income and a substantial fall in rural poverty.This paper examines the evolutions of and the relationships between rural transformation(high-value agriculture and rural non-farm employment)and its outcomes(per capita rural income and rural poverty incidence)using provincial-level data.The results show that 31 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities have undergone significant rural transformation,but the level and speed of rural transformation differed considerably.Moreover,an increased level of rural transformation is often associated with higher per capita rural income and reduced rural poverty incidence.Notably,a category of provincial rural transformation based on high-value agriculture and rural non-farm employment is also analyzed.We further discuss the likely impacts of institutions,policies,and investments(IPIs)on rural transformation and conclude with policy implications.

Does labor off-farm employment inevitably lead to land rent out?Evidence from China

The focus of land economics is on how to decrease the misallocation of resources to achieve an optimal allocation of resources. Both the theories of new economics of labor migration(NELM) and the conclusions of empirical studies reveal that land resources will inevitably be reallocated(e.g., rented out) if the resources of family labor are reallocated(e.g., off-farm employment). However, this study reveals that off-farm employment does not inevitably lead to land rent out. More precisely, this study uses survey data on 8031 peasant households from 27 provinces in China and explores the relationship between off-farm employment and land rent out by describing spatial features and through empirical analysis(e.g., IV-Probit model and IV-Tobit model). The results show the following: 1) There is an indirect relationship between off-farm employment and land rent out regarding spatial area aggregation, i.e., regions with a higher ratio of off-farm employment also have a lower area of land rent out. 2) Off-farm employment is significantly positively correlated with the behavior of land rent out, but its square is significantly negatively correlated with the behavior, i.e., there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between off-farm employment and the behavior of land rent out, with the turning point being 55.55% offfarm employment. 3) Off-farm employment is significantly positively correlated with the area of land rent out, but its square is significantly negatively correlated with the area, i.e., there is an inverted Ushaped relationship between off-farm employment and the area of land rent out, with the turning point being 56.22% off-farm employment. This study helps explain why China has a high ratio of off-farm employment but a lower rate of land rent out.

Analysis of the Impacts of Nongovernmental Economy on Nonagricultural Employment Growth in China

The importance of solving the employment problems by nongovernmental economy in China has aroused the concern of many scholars widely. However, few literatures could be found to deal with the impacts on nonagricultural employment growth in China by nongovernmental economy from several levels such as the whole nation, urban and rural. Based on the research accessed on the relationships between nongovernmental economy and em-ployment, the impacts of the development of nongovernmental economy on non-agricultural employment growth in China are emphasized in this paper. Taking time series data of non-agricultural employment in China’s different economy types in 1992–2005 as study objects, by establishing econometric re-gression models, some meaningful points are found as follows, the impacts of nongovernmental economy on the nonagricultural employment in either national or urban-rural level are rather sig-nificant although their impacts’ degrees are different. Based on the research findings above, some countermeasures are proposed to accelerate the nongovernmental economic development and im-prove its ability to absorb nonagricultural employment.

Employment should top crisis agenda

The global financial crisis has taken a toll on China’s economy and employment.Due to shrinking exports,jobs have been slashed and difficulties have arisen in export-oriented manufacturing,labor-intensive industries and small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)in China’s coastal regions.In this context,employment should be our policy target, and counter-shock and counter-cyclical policies should be integrated.

数字乡村建设与农民工就业质量提升

数字乡村建设一方面通过新业态新模式创造出更多更高质量的就业岗位,另一方面通过拓宽信息渠道促进农民工人力资本和社会资本积累,增强农民工在就业市场上的竞争力和议价能力,因而可以赋能农民工高质量就业。将2018年的县域数字乡村指数数据与中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据进行匹配,从客观和主观两个维度综合评价农民工的就业质量,检验数字乡村建设对农民工就业质量的影响,结果表明:数字乡村建设显著提高了农民工就业质量,该结论在内生性处理和一系列稳健性检验中依然成立;数字乡村建设具有显著的信息改善效应,可以通过拓宽信息渠道、促进人岗匹配、增强社会信任等路径来提高农民工的就业质量;数字乡村建设对女性农民工、在婚农民工、中青年农民工、学历较高的农民工和已接入互联网的农民工具有更显著的就业质量提升作用。因此,应加快推进数字乡村建设,充分发挥其各种积极效应,并有效缩小城乡间和农村地区内部的数字鸿沟,促进数字乡村协调发展。

县域乡村数字化发展对农村劳动力供给的影响

本文基于2018—2020年中国县域数字乡村指数、中国家庭追踪调查和CEIC经济数据库,利用固定效应模型考察了县域乡村数字化发展对农村劳动力供给的影响,并基于劳动力供给数量与劳动力供给时间的双重视角,深入剖析了乡村数字化发展的劳动要素配置效应。研究发现,第一,县域乡村数字化显著提高了农村劳动力供给数量。乡村数字化发展增加了农村劳动力在工作地点和工作场所等方面选择的灵活性,且有效提高了农村剩余劳动力兼业的概率,从而增加了劳动力供给数量。第二,乡村数字化发展显著增加了农村劳动力的劳动供给时长,且主要在“工作—闲暇”时间上进行了重新配置,即通过减少休闲时间来增加非农就业时间。第三,异质性分析发现,乡村数字化对女性、“新生代”和低技能农村劳动者的劳动供给时长影响更大。本文的研究发现为实现共同富裕与数字乡村建设的协同发展提供了参考。

转移就业对农户生计脆弱性的影响——基于新疆县域数据的证据

降低农户生计脆弱性是实现乡村振兴的基础和前提,转移就业是降低农户生计脆弱性的重要手段。基于新疆农户微观数据,使用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)实证检验转移就业政策对农户生计脆弱性的影响。结果表明:转移就业可以显著降低农户生计脆弱性。这一结论在采用更改标准线及更改匹配方法两种方式进行稳健性检验后仍然稳健。异质性检验表明,转移就业政策对南疆地区农户生计脆弱性的削弱作用更强,对生计脆弱性水平越高的农户作用效果越强。在进一步的影响机制检验中发现,转移就业可以通过提高农户技能水平和拓宽农户社会网络关系降低农户生计脆弱性。当前是脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴进行有效衔接时期,依据分析结果提出了相关政策建议。

生态产品价值实现与城乡融合发展——基于城乡融合发展试验区的实证研究

生态产品价值实现对于巩固和拓展脱贫攻坚成果和实现乡村全面振兴,推动城乡融合发展具有重要意义。本文以2013—2020年城乡融合发展试验区77个区县为研究对象,构建评价体系并结合熵值法衡量城乡融合发展水平,明确生态产品价值实现流程,在此基础上,考察生态产品价值实现对城乡融合发展的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现,生态产品价值实现能显著促进城乡融合发展,在克服可能存在的内生性问题后,生态产品价值实现对城乡融合发展的影响效应仍然稳健;生态产品价值实现对城乡各系统层面融合也具有明显的促进作用;生态产品价值实现对城乡融合发展的影响主要基于环境效应和就业效应两个方面发挥作用;异质性分析发现,生态产品价值实现对东部和中部板块城乡融合发展均有正向促进作用,但是西部板块生态产品价值实现对城乡融合发展的促进作用并不显著。

宗族文化对农村女性非农就业的影响

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据,从微观层面研究宗族文化对农村女性非农就业的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,宗族文化强度越大和宗族多样性越高都显著不利于农村女性参与非农就业。异质性分析结果表明,宗族文化对未婚女性非农就业无显著影响,对已婚女性非农就业存在显著负向影响,对生育阶段女性的影响显著强于非生育阶段女性。此外,宗族文化的影响存在地区差异,南方地区的宗族文化显著降低农村女性的非农就业概率,而北方地区的宗族文化无显著影响。在作用机制方面,证明了宗族文化通过影响生育行为、教育投资以及家庭分工进而制约农村女性参与非农就业。还进一步探究了宗族文化是否影响农村女性非农就业地点。结果显示,宗族文化虽然不利于农村女性非农就业,但对于已实现非农就业的女性而言,宗族文化有利于其跨县就业和跨省就业。促进农村女性非农就业是一个长期的、循序渐进的过程,需要在文化方面进行积极引导,不断完善农村社会保障体系,充分发挥非正式制度的积极作用。

新型农村集体经济发展对劳动力回流的影响:“安居”与“乐业”

基于中国劳动力动态调查数据库(CLDS)2016年和2018年两期面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型和工具变量法,分析新型农村集体经济发展对劳动力回流的影响及其作用机理。结果表明:新型农村集体经济发展对劳动力回流具有显著正向影响;在进行替换变量、控制遗漏变量及测量误差等检验后,研究结论依然保持不变。机制分析表明,新型农村集体经济发展主要通过改善和优化农村人居环境与就业环境来促进劳动力回流。同时,新型农村集体经济发展吸引的回流劳动力具有年龄大、学历低的特征。此外,农村劳动力回流后更倾向于非农就业。因此,建议进一步推动新型农村集体经济高质量发展,为外出劳动力回流后的“安居”和“乐业”创造更为有利的环境和基础,进而更好地吸引高素质劳动力适度回流,推进乡村全面振兴。

农村夫妻就业分化对生育意愿的影响

生育属于夫妻共同决策,探究农村夫妻就业分化引致的生育意愿变动及其内在机理,可能为中国低生育率的破解提供新视角。基于2014年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证检验农村夫妻就业分化对生育意愿的影响。结果表明,农村夫妻就业分化会降低其生育意愿,与务农型夫妻相比,兼业型夫妻和非农型夫妻的平均生育意愿分别减少0.037个和0.054个。使用CMP模型和Tobit模型进行稳健性检验后,结论依旧成立。就业分化对35岁以下、村庄宗族氛围不浓厚的农村夫妻生育意愿的抑制作用更强。机制检验表明,抚育能力削弱和传统生育观念弱化是农村夫妻就业分化导致生育意愿下降的重要原因。农村夫妻就业分化对其生育二孩和生育三孩的行为亦存在显著负向影响。因此,包容性生育政策改革需着重关注农村夫妻的抚育成本和时间顾虑,并通过营造新型生育文化,以激发农村夫妻的生育动力和情感需求。

高职院校助力农业农村现代化的策略

高职院校作为国家培育现代化建设所需人才的重要场所,必须认清自身在农业农村现代化建设中的位置,承担起自身职责,为农业农村现代化的基本实现提供人才和技术支持。借助问卷调查的研究方法,聚焦福建省两所涉农高职院校的1 000名学生,通过对学生就业意向的调查研究,进而探寻涉农高职院校助力农业农村现代化建设中存在的不足之处,并提出针对性策略,为基本实现农业农村的现代化建言献策。

非农就业对农村居民消费升级的影响——基于社会资本的中介效应检验

基于2022年安徽省五县473户农户调查数据,利用联立方程模型对不同层次的非农就业比例、社会资本与农村居民消费升级的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)在控制其他条件不变的情况下,非农就业比例每增加1%,农村居民消费升级平均提升7%;(2)社会资本在非农就业比例与农村居民消费升级间起中介作用;(3)非农就业比例分位点位于(0.2,0.7)时,非农就业比例对农村居民消费升级的直接效应及社会资本的中介效应变得更加明显。基于此,从增加非农就业培训和教育的机会,强化社会资本的建设和利用,促进农村与城市的经济和社会融合三个方面提出了对策建议,以期为农村居民消费升级注入活力。

“双碳”目标下农户兼业与农村生活能源消费转型

促进农村生活能源消费转型对于我国能源消费结构优化以及“双碳”目标实现具有重要意义。基于2022年实地调研数据,实证分析农户兼业对农村生活能源消费转型的影响效应及作用机制。结果表明,农户兼业对农村生活能源消费转型有显著促进作用,推动农村能源消费结构逐渐由以生物质能源为主向以商品能源为主转变。进一步机制分析显示,农户兼业通过提升家庭收入及优化收入结构、土地资本挤出、人力资本挤出和生态自觉性提升促进农村生活能源消费转型。此外,农户兼业促进农村生活能源消费转型存在代际、兼业地区和行业差异。因此,提出进一步破除城乡资源流动壁垒,完善农民工省外流动机制;加强生态文明建设,大力培育农户生态自觉性;推动乡村产业升级,促进农民收入量、质提升的对策建议。

数字经济赋能乡村振兴对林业劳动者的就业效应研究

乡村振兴是决胜全面建成小康社会、全面建设社会主义现代化国家的重大历史任务。数字经济的发展为乡村振兴提供了强大的新动能,也对乡村劳动力市场的就业规模和就业结构产生重大影响。文章对2011—2022年我国30个省份乡村不同技能林业劳动者的就业量进行测度,构建衡量各省份数字经济发展水平的指标体系,通过个体与时间双向固定效应模型,实证检验数字经济发展对乡村林业劳动者就业量的影响。进一步探究区域异质性和个体异质性,分析数字经济对东部、中部、西部地区不同技能林业劳动者就业效应的影响。结果表明:(1)数字经济发展会削弱林业劳动者就业总量,数字经济发展水平每提升1个单位,林业劳动者就业总量会减少77.26%。(2)数字经济发展水平对乡村不同技能林业劳动者就业量存在明显的负向作用,且对于低技能劳动者的影响最大,数字经济发展水平每提升1个单位,低技能劳动者会减少69.97%;对于中技能劳动者的就业量影响最小,为38.80%。(3)数字经济发展水平每增加1个单位,东部地区林业劳动者就业总量会减少90.40%,中部地区的中技能劳动者就业量会减少254.76%,对西部地区则无显著影响。文章丰富了乡村振兴战略以及数字经济发展和就业效应理论的相关研究,通过数理模型对数字经济发展如何影响林业劳动者的深入剖析,能够缓解数字经济时代下我国乡村林业劳动者的就业问题。文章指出我国应高度重视数字经济对林业劳动者就业产生的替代效应和创造效应;积极寻求数字经济助推林业劳动者就业的路径;完善社会保障制度,提升就业服务水平。

数字乡村建设能促进农户增收吗?

数字乡村建设的战略目标在于全面实现农业强、农村美、农民富。基于2019年中国县域数字乡村指数和2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,利用多层次模型和中介效应模型实证分析数字乡村建设对农户收入的影响及其作用机制。结果表明,数字乡村建设对农户增收具有显著的促进作用,数字乡村建设得越好,农户收入越高。中介效应检验结果表明,数字乡村建设可以通过推动农户非农就业、提高农户数字素养进而促进农户增收。异质性分析表明,数字乡村建设对农户增收的影响存在明显的地区差异性和受教育程度差异性;相较于中西部地区和低学历农户家庭,数字乡村建设对东部地区和高学历农户家庭的增收效应更显著。为此,政府应持续加强和协调数字乡村建设与发展,着力构建面向农村的数字技术推广体系,切实让农民享受到“数字红利”,促进农民持续增收,全面推进乡村振兴。