I select 32 samples concerning per capita living consumption of rural residents in Sichuan Province during the period 1978-2009. First, using Markov prediction method, the growth rate of living consumption level in th...I select 32 samples concerning per capita living consumption of rural residents in Sichuan Province during the period 1978-2009. First, using Markov prediction method, the growth rate of living consumption level in the future is predicted to largely range from 10% to 20%. Then, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, time variable t is added into the traditional ARMA model for modeling and prediction. The prediction results show that the average relative error rate is 1.56%, and the absolute value of relative error during the period 2006-2009 is less than 0.5%. Finally, I compare the prediction results during the period 2010-2012 by Markov prediction method and ARMA model, respectively, indicating that the two are consistent in terms of growth rate of living consumption, and the prediction results are reliable. The results show that under the similar policies, rural residents' consumer demand in Sichuan Province will continue to grow in the short term, so it is necessary to further expand the consumer market.展开更多
The construction of rural residents＇ living style is the fundamental significance of building the new socialist countryside. With the deep development of the urban and rural, rural residents＇ living style has change...The construction of rural residents＇ living style is the fundamental significance of building the new socialist countryside. With the deep development of the urban and rural, rural residents＇ living style has changed profoundly on the labour, consumption, entertainment, marriage and family, etc., and the differences of living style between the urban and rural are becoming smaller and smaller. Therefore, this paper suggested to promote the rural residents to build the scientific, cultural and healthy modern life style, and put forward the rational development thoughts.展开更多
文摘I select 32 samples concerning per capita living consumption of rural residents in Sichuan Province during the period 1978-2009. First, using Markov prediction method, the growth rate of living consumption level in the future is predicted to largely range from 10% to 20%. Then, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, time variable t is added into the traditional ARMA model for modeling and prediction. The prediction results show that the average relative error rate is 1.56%, and the absolute value of relative error during the period 2006-2009 is less than 0.5%. Finally, I compare the prediction results during the period 2010-2012 by Markov prediction method and ARMA model, respectively, indicating that the two are consistent in terms of growth rate of living consumption, and the prediction results are reliable. The results show that under the similar policies, rural residents' consumer demand in Sichuan Province will continue to grow in the short term, so it is necessary to further expand the consumer market.
基金Supported by Harbin Experts and Advisors Council Project (2008)
文摘The construction of rural residents＇ living style is the fundamental significance of building the new socialist countryside. With the deep development of the urban and rural, rural residents＇ living style has changed profoundly on the labour, consumption, entertainment, marriage and family, etc., and the differences of living style between the urban and rural are becoming smaller and smaller. Therefore, this paper suggested to promote the rural residents to build the scientific, cultural and healthy modern life style, and put forward the rational development thoughts.
