The Empirical Analysis on the Dynamic Effect of Rural-urban Migration on the Consumption Growth of Residents in China——Based on Varying Parameter State-space Model

The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.

Analysis of Urban Agglomeration Network Structure Based on Baidu Migration Data: A Case Study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Urban Agglomeration

The inter-city linkage heat data provided by Baidu Migration is employed as a characterization of inter-city linkages in order to facilitate the study of the network linkage characteristics and hierarchical structure of urban agglomeration in the Greater Bay Area through the use of social network analysis method.This is the inaugural application of big data based on location services in the study of urban agglomeration network structure,which represents a novel research perspective on this topic.The study reveals that the density of network linkages in the Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration has reached 100%,indicating a mature network-like spatial structure.This structure has given rise to three distinct communities:Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou,Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing,and Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen.Additionally,cities within the Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration play different roles,suggesting that varying development strategies may be necessary to achieve staggered development.The study demonstrates that large datasets represented by LBS can offer novel insights and methodologies for the examination of urban agglomeration network structures,contingent on the appropriate mining and processing of the data.

Economic Growth, Demographic Change and Rural-Urban Migration in China

Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rural Labor Migration in China: Evidence from the Migration Stability under New-type Urbanization

Although the factors affecting rural-to-urban migration have been discussed and analyzed in detail, few studies have examined the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of rural migrants’ employment and working-cities in the post-immigrate era, which is essential for the citizenization and social integration of new-type urbanization in China. This study uses survey data from rural migration laborers across the eastern, central, and western China to construct a comprehensive labor migration stability index, and compares the determinants of the migration stability of rural labor among cities and industries using Geodetector. The results are as follows: 1) Compared with the midwestern cities, eastern cities have attracted younger and more skilled rural labor, and industries with higher technical content have higher migration stability among rural laborers. 2) Rural laborers more often adapt to changes by changing employment instead of changing working-cities. 3) The individual experiences of rural laborers and urban characteristics have significant impacts on the stability of migration, and family and societal guanxi(Chinese interpersonal relationships) enhance migration stability. 4) A unified labor market and convenient transportation have somewhat slowed industrial transfers and labor backflow. This study enhances our understanding of the roles of industrial transfer and new-type urbanization in shaping the labor geography landscape and provides policy implications for the promotion of people-oriented urbanization.

Impacts of Migration on Urban Environmental Pollutant Emissions in China: A Comparative Perspective

In recent years,researchers have devoted considerable attention to identifying the causes of urban environmental pollution.To determine whether migrant populations significantly affect urban environments,we examined the relationship between urban environmental pollutant emissions and migrant populations at the prefectural level using data obtained for 90 Chinese cities evidencing net in-migration.By dividing the permanent populations of these cities into natives and migrants in relation to the population structure,we constructed an improved Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology model(STIRPAT)that included not only environmental pollutant emission variables but also variables on the cities’attributes.We subsequently conducted detailed analyses of the results of the models to assess the impacts of natives and migrants on environmental pollutant emissions.The main findings of our study were as follows:1)Migrant populations have significant impacts on environmental emissions both in terms of their size and concentration.Specifically,migrant populations have negative impacts on Air Quality Index(AQI)as well as PM2.5 emissions and positive impacts on emissions of NO2 and CO2.2)The impacts of migrant populations on urban environmental pollutant emissions were 8 to 30 times weaker than that of local populations.3)Urban environmental pollutant emissions in different cities differ significantly according to variations in the industrial structures,public transportation facilities,and population densities.

Mass Human Migration and the Urban Heat Island during the Chinese New Year Holiday: A Case Study in Harbin City, Northeast China

Many Chinese people leave big cities for family reunions during the Chinese New Year （CNY）, which is the most important public holiday in China. However, how modem mass human migration during the CNY holiday affects the urban heat island （UHI） is still un- known. Here, the authors investigate the role of modem human migration for the UHI effects during the CNY holiday for the period of 1992-2006 in Harbin City, Northeast China. The results show that during the CNY week, the UHI effects expressed as daily mean, maxi- mum, and minimum temperature differences between urban and rural stations averaged over the period of 1992-2006 are 0.65℃ （43%）, 0.31℃ （48%）, and 1.14℃ （71%） lower than during the background period （four weeks before and four weeks after the CNY week）, re- spectively. Our findings identify previously unknown impacts of modem mass human migration on the UHI effects based on a case study in Harbin City.

THE ROLE OF RAILROAD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMERICAN WEST—Railroad,Migration and Urban Growth

This paper explores the role of geographical expansion of railroads,one of the most important Fransporta-tion vehicles,in the history of American west development,analyses its implication on the unprecedented mi gration move-ment and the resulted urbanization i n the west and concludes with the fact that the appropriate interference b y the governm-net,especially in the early period,is vital to regional development pra ctice,because of market failure at t he initial stage,infrastructure constructio n conducted by the government always plays as the first impetus to any regional develop-ment process.Only through this brid ge,can some physical factors,such a s population,be attracted to feed th e back-ward area.As a result,cities grow fa st and the region develops well.The e xperience can be shared by all countr ies.Be-sides reviewing the history of west development in America,focusing on t he relationship between railroads e xpansion and urban growth,which was realized thr ough population migration.Acomparison on the particular pattern of regional develop-ment between U.S and China is made as well at the end.It is noted that despite of the common first impetus,govern-ment subsidies and the common final r esult,urbanization,the path for th e America is bottom-up,whereas that for China is top down,that is to say,developme nt should originate from big cities,then to towns,and finally radiate in to rural ar-eas.

Ecological Approaches to Urban Migration of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

With the approach of the second water storage of the Three Gorges Project, urban migration has become a great concern. However, being influenced by economical, social or other factors, ecological problems have apparently become pressing. All these problems are exerting great impact upon the speed and quality of new city’s or town’s construction. By means of ecology, urban ecology, landscape ecology, human settlement science as well as the principle of sustainable development, this paper analyzes the ecological problems in urban migration, and the corresponding approaches in order to promote ecological environment construction of new cities and give an impetus to sustainable development of the whole human settlements in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

The Impact of Education Input on Labor Migration and Inequality in China

By introducing a general equilibrium framework to China's dual economic structure, this paper studies the microscopic mechanism of education input to narrow the urban-rural income gap and how to improve the allocation efficiency of education funds in China's "new normal" economy. The empirical analysis results show that education input is effective in narrowing the urban-rural income gap and achieving a Pareto improvement state in both direct and indirect ways. However, the effect of education input at different stages varies. In particular, the impact of compulsory education on improving inequality is more significant than the other education levels. With adjustment for the macroeconomic slowdown, raising fiscal expenditures on education can improve potential economic growth by promoting human capital accumulation and labor productivity in the long run. In all, education input can promote labor migration and narrow the urban-rural income gap, which is conducive to alleviating the contradiction of the structural transformation lag in employment and achieving inclusive growth targets.

Arrested Development in Beirut： Migration, Security and Dilemmas of Consociational Democracy

This article analyses two major dilemmas in contemporary Lebanon： Firstly, based on the theory of consociational democracy it identifies an increasing divide between the state that is building on a national security consensus among the power sharing elites and the society, which suffering from the political paralysis concerning reforms is depending on the market, the private initiative and the international donor community in coping with the challenges rooted in inadequate infrastructure, failing public services, corruption, and migration including the influx of Syrian refugees. Secondly, it discusses the contradiction between the cosmopolitan self-image of Beirut versus social exclusion of Palestinians, Asian and African migrant workers, and sexual minorities. Even if the Lebanese government points to terrorism and the refugees crisis as the biggest threats to the Lebanese state a closer analysis points to the increasing divide between state and society, which leads to a rise to a social crisis that involves all layers in the Lebanese society except the elite. Much of the discontent with this situation among Lebanese citizens and the Palestinians is today directed against the Syrians who are portrayed as the roots of the problems in Lebanon. It is an open question though that how long time the Lebanese society accept this narrative： the mass mobilization behind first You Stink movement in 2015 and then Beirut Madinati in 2016 indicates a political awareness in Beirut that holds the government and political system responsible for the huge problems and at the same time acknowledges that political reforms leading to a better economic distribution of Lebanese resources and power sharing not only for the elites but for the Lebanese society as such is the only way ahead and the best bulwark against a breakdown of the state.

China's long-term low carbon transition pathway under the urbanization process

This study develops a comprehensive analysis framework and socio-economic energy system model that interlinks demographic change and energy system in order to analyze the urbanization process and its relation with China's long-term CO2 emissions trend as China'economy enters the“new normal”stage.The results show that,around 300 million people are expected to migrate from rural areas to urban areas by 2050 following a trend,in which people are moving gradually from small and medium city groups to large and super city groups.The migration trend together with the improvement in living standard will promote China's infrastructure construction,industry production,and energy service demand growth.Under the Business as Usual(BAU)scenario,total primary energy consumption in China will reach 8.4 Gtce by 2050,energyrelated CO2 emissions will increase to 17.6 Gt,which is 83%higher than the 2013 level.While in the Low Carbon Transition(LCT)scenario with technology innovation,the total primary energy demand for China in 2050 could be controlled at^6 Gtce;CO2 emissions would peak during 2020—2025,and be reduced by 78%by 2050 compared to the BAU scenario.In the transition process,non-fossil fuel power generation and energy efficiency technologies have the largest mitigation potentials.Industry and power sectors would peak first before 2020,followed by the building and transport sectors which are projected to peak around 2030.The total additional capital investment required for LCT would account for 1.5%of GDP.Therefore,it is technologically and economically feasible for China to implement new urbanization strategy.

Characteristics Analysis of Urban Space Expansion in Luoyang, China

The characteristics of urban space expansion reflect the changes of urban space layout and space structure, as well as the urban developing direction and urban orientation in the future. Based on the remote sensing image data of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, this paper analyzes the urban space expansion characteristics of Luoyang, by using the urban land compaction index, expansion intensity index and centroid distribution in 4 time sections and 3 periods. The results show that: 1) the urban land area of Luoyang has expanded rapidly, the urban planning policy has successfully guided the urban expansion. 2) In the first period, the urban expansion belongs to the rapid expansion type, mainly filling the built-up area and natural expansion to outward;the second period is of high-speed expansion type, the urban expansion mainly enlarges the urban framework, then fills the expanded district, and the influence of urban natural growth factor is very small;the third period belongs to the high-speed expansion type, and the expansion rate is significantly lower than that in the second period, the urban expansion is mainly to fill in the urban framework enlarged in the previous period and continue to enlarge the urban framework, and the influence of urban natural growth factor is very little. 3) The urban land centroid gradually migrates to the southeast with the azimuth of 151.47°, the annual migration distance is of 138.29 m. The migration rate in the second period is the fastest, which is about 7.43 times that of the first period, and 2.70 times that of the third period. In the first period, the urban land is mainly expanded to southward, with the main azimuth of 201.13°. Compared with the urban land centroid in 2000, the urban land in the second period mainly expands to east-southeast and southward along the azimuths of 141.92° and 154.17° respectively. Compared with the urban centroid in 2010, the urban land in the third period mainly expands in the orientations of southeast and eastward along the azimuth of 96.24° and 133.45°.

On the Process of Peasant Workers' Transformation to Urban Residents

The unique two-stage "Chinese path" of China’s ru-ral-urban migration, which cannot be fully explained by classical theories of economic development, makes us to give peasant workers’ transformation to urban residents a top priority. On the basis of fully explaining peasant workers’ transformation to urban residents, a method for measuring its process has been advanced and then confirmed with the data of March in 2005 from surveys to peasant workers in Wuhan. Finally, the suggestions of acceler-ating peasant workers’ transformation to urban residents to pro-mote the construction of a harmonious society have been drawn from the analysis.

Air pollutant emissions induced by rural-to-urban migration during China's urbanization(2005-2015)

As the world's most populous country,China has witnessed rapid urbanization in recent decades,with population migration from rural to urban(RU)regions as the major driving force.Due to the large gap between rural and urban consumption and investment level,large-scale RU migration impacts air pollutant emissions and creates extra uncertainties for air quality improvement.Here,we integrated population migration assessment,an environmentally extended inputeoutput model and structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the NOx,SO2 and primary PM2.5 emissions induced by RU migration during China's urbanization from 2005 to 2015.The results show that RU migration increased air pollutant emissions,while the increases in NOx and SO2 emissions peaked in approximately 2010 at 2.4 Mt and 2.2 Mt,accounting for 9.2%and 8.7%of the national emissions,respectively.The primary PM2.5 emissions induced by RU migration also peaked in approximately 2012 at 0.3 Mt,accounting for 2.8%of the national emissions.The indirect emissions embodied in consumption and investment increased,while household direct emissions decreased.The widening gap between urban and rural investment and consumption exerted a major increasing effect on migration-induced emissions;in contrast,the falling emission intensity contributed the most to the decreasing effect benefitting from end-of-pipe control technology applications as well as improving energy efficiency.The peak of air pollutant emissions induced by RU migration indicates that although urbanization currently creates extra environmental pressure in China,it is possible to reconcile urbanization and air quality improvement in the future with updating urbanization and air pollution control policies.

The Development and Significance of American Urbanization

In comparison with the European urbanization, which stretches back roughly 5500 years, the American transformation from village to city was achieved in an amazingly short space of time. From the eighteenth century on, Americans experienced the painful yet rewarding change of an agrarian nation becoming an urban industrial giant. In 1790, for example, only a little over 4 percent of the American population lived in cities; today 70 percent of Americans live in urban areas.

A Geographical Analysis of Urban Sprawl in Abuja, Nigeria

Urban sprawl is a challenge of the century across the globe;however its greatest impact is felt more in developing countries mainly due to its poor planning and ever increasing population. To ascertain how this affects a notable African city, Abuja, a questionnaire design was employed to elicit resident’s perception on the causes and effects of sprawl in the city. A principal component analysis was performed to simplify the relationship between large bodies of variables involved. This was able to collapse the 14 variables representing the causes of sprawl extracted from the response of the respondents and 9 variables representing the effects of sprawl on the environment and on the residents into significant and orthogonal components that explained the variables in the observed data. Among the nine factors that loaded highly on the components, population was the major factor discovered to be responsible for the sprawl. The analysis further showed the main effects of the sprawl on the city as: loss of biodiversity, high dependency on car, traffic congestion, land degradation, alteration of microclimate, destruction of aesthetics, increasing crime wave, pollution and waste management problems. Adhering to the guidelines on urban development for the city will help the residents not to be prone to the effects of urban sprawl and help to maintain good environmental standards and less spending on maintenance on the part of the government.

人口迁移流动与城镇化发展战略任务

本世纪以来,特别是2010年以来,我国人口迁移流动和城镇化表现出的特点是:流动人口数量继续增长,人口流动向东部地区尤其是东南沿海地区转移,人口迁移流动存在“南强北弱”和“北人南迁”趋势,人口城镇化水平继续提高和中西部地区城镇化增长更快,人口更明显地向特大城市和超大城市集聚,带来超大、特大城市数量增加,并在此基础上带动若干核心城市都市圈和城市群发展等。结合人口迁移流动态势,直面我国城镇化发展进程所面临的战略任务,提出应加快推进农业转移人口和流动人口的市民化,在城镇化过程中实现更加平衡的国家发展,以及在不同地区实践多样性和因地制宜的城镇化发展。

数字普惠金融赋能城乡融合——基于产业和城乡协同发展视角

数字普惠金融为破除城乡金融体系二元对立、优化城乡资源配置、助推城乡融合开辟了新路径。本文基于2011-2021年中国地级市面板数据,从产业和城乡协同发展视角分析数字普惠金融赋能城乡融合的作用渠道。研究发现,数字普惠金融有效促进了城乡融合发展。从各维度来看,覆盖广度与使用深度是促进城乡融合的关键,信贷和保险业务发挥了显著的协同效应,数字普惠金融的城乡融合效应在空间和社会维度上显著;在东部、中部地区和农村资金外流程度较轻的地区,数字普惠金融赋能城乡融合的作用更强;数字普惠金融能够促进生产要素在产业和城乡间流动,发挥劳动力转移和产业结构升级的带动作用,间接赋能城乡融合。

城市义务教育入学门槛与流动人口子女随迁决策——人口流动新形势下的教育资源空间配置优化

在流动人口向城市群集聚的新形势下,城市群承担着创新公共服务均等化提供机制的重要责任。以长三角城市群为样本,基于政策文本研究各城市针对流动人口随迁子女设置的义务教育入学门槛,并定量分析其对流动人口子女随迁决策的影响。研究发现,各城市以材料准入制和积分入学制两种模式设置入学门槛,其高低并没有呈现从核心城市(上海)到中心城市(南京、杭州等)再到其他城市递减的趋势。义务教育入学门槛与子女随迁之间具有显著的负相关关系,高入学门槛城市比低入学门槛城市的流动人口子女随迁几率低55%,且这种关系在低收入流动人口群体中更加明显。为了构建人口流动新形势下的共享型教育体系,应当优化教育资源的空间配置:在理念上探索城市群教育资源统筹配置的思路,在制度上创新突破行政区划的教育公共服务提供机制,在技术上完善以常住人口为基础的义务教育资源规划布局。

新生代农民工举家迁移对教育支出的影响研究

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据和实地调研发现:存在子女随迁现象的新生代农民工家庭均为举家迁移。举家迁移显著增加家庭教育支出,随迁子女数与家庭教育支出显著正相关。家中既有男孩又有女孩的举家迁移家庭教育支出显著增加,家中只有男孩的家庭教育支出显著高于家中只有女孩的家庭。相比中部和东部,西部新生代农民工举家迁移显著增加家庭教育支出。建议积极落实“两为主”“两纳入”“两统一”“同城化”等随迁子女教育政策,切实减轻农民工家庭教育负担;统筹义务教育资源均衡配置,努力缩小教育区域化差异;完善户籍制度和流动人口服务体系,衔接城乡有关社会保障与福利政策,促进农民工随迁家庭整体市民化。