Ecological Safety Evaluation of Land Use in Ji'an City Based on the Principal Component Analysis

According to the ecological safety evaluation index data of land-use change in Ji'an City from 1999 to 2008,positive treatment on selected reverse indices is conducted by Reciprocal Method.Meanwhile,Index Method is used to standardize the selected indices,and Principal Component Analysis is applied by using year as a unit.FB is obtained,which is related with the ecological safety of land-use change from 1999 to 2008.According to the scientific,integrative,hierarchical,practical and dynamic principles,ecological safety evaluation index system of land-use change in Ji'an City is established.Principal Component Analysis and evaluation model are used to calculate four parameters,including the natural resources safety index of land use,the socio-economic safety indicators of land use,the eco-environmental safety index of land use,and the ecological safety degree of land use in Ji'an City.Result indicates that the ecological safety degree of land use in Ji'an City shows a slow upward trend as a whole.At the same time,ecological safety degree of land-use change is relatively low in Ji'an City with the safety value of 0.645,which is at a weak safety zone and needs further monitoring and maintenance.

Optimization design of deep lean-ore mining and safety evaluation

In order to settle the mining optimization design and safety problem of the above 1 150 m pillar of No.1 ore-body in No.H Mining Jinchuan, the lean-ore above 1 250 m, the 1 150 m horizontal pillar and the ore-body below 1 100 m regarded as research objects based on the original design project, and nine calculation schemes on different mining sequence and different fill body strength were put forward based on cement-sand ratio of 1 ： 4, 1： 12 and 1 ： 24. Calculation parameters were got by the back analysis method of field monitoring data, and the FLAC2D program was applied to compute for these schemes, stress and displacement of ground settlement, shaft and stope roof were analyzed, and some conclusions were got. Results show that the intensity of filling body and the mining technique have very important effect on controlling settlement and stability of surrounding rock; Developing of lean ore have some influences to the 16th return air filling shaft, especially for 1 500--1 400 m of the shaft; The best project is the first project. This research supply some technique references and safety appraisals for the mining of lean-ore of No.II Mining Jinchuan.

Probability evaluation method for cable safety of long-span cable-stayed bridges

A method of cable safety analysis is proposed for safety evaluation of long-span cable-stayed bridges. The Daniels＇ effect and the probability of broken wires in the cable are introduced to develop the cable strength model and the reliability assessment technique for long-span cable-stayed bridges based on the safety factors analysis of stay cables in service. As an application of the proposed model, the cable safety reliability of the cable No. 25 of Zhaobaoshan cable-stayed bridge in China is calculated. The effects of various parameters on the estimated cable safety reliability are investigated. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to assess the safety level of stay cables in cable-stayed bridges effectively. The Daniels＇ effect should be taken into account for assessment, and the probability of broken wires can be used to simulate the deterioration of stay cables in service.

Safety evaluation and the static-dynamic coupling analysis of counter-arched slab in plunge pool

The stability of plunge pool slab of drainage structure is crucial to energy dissipation,but the working conditions of counter-arched slab are very complex and its stress procedure is considerably nonlinear and coupling.Therefore,a nonlinear static and dynamic coupling method to analyze the counter-arched slab configuration is put forward,which can reflect the coupling of dynamic loads,slab,anchor bars,groundwork and abutment as well as the dynamic procedure of instability.Various nonlinear factors and static-dynamic coupling are taken into consideration,and the working conditions,stress mechanism,dynamic instability procedure and influential instability factors are revealed.The proposed method thus provides a comprehensive safety evaluation method of plunge pool,which further pro-vides an important theoretical basis for engineering design of counter-arched slab in plunge pool.

Dynamic probability evaluation of safety levels of earth-rockfill dams using Bayesian approach

In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined wfth the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.

Impact and Friction Sensitivity of Energetic Materials：Methodical Evaluation of Technological Safety Features

Key methods developed and used in the USSR and in the Russian Federation to determine the impact and friction sensitivity of energetic materials and explosives have been discussed.Experimental methodologies and instruments that underlie the assessment of their production and handling safety have been described.Studies of a large number of compounds have revealed relationships between their sensitivity parameters and structure of individual compounds and compositions.The range of change of physical and chemical characteristics for the compounds we examined covers the entire region of their existence.Theoretical methodology and equations have been formulated to estimate the impact and friction sensitivity parameters of energetic materials and to evaluate the technological safety in use.The developed methodology is characterized by high-accuracy calculations and prediction of sensitivity parameters.

Safety monitoring and stability analysis of left abutment slope of Jinping Ⅰ hydropower station

Safety monitoring and stability analysis of high slopes are important for high dam construction in high mountainous regions or precipitous gorges. In this paper, deformation characteristics of toppling block at upper abutment, deforming tensile rip wedge in the middle part and deep fractures are comprehensively analyzed based on the geological conditions, construction methods and monitoring results of left abutment slope in Jinping Ⅰ hydropower station. Safety analyses of surface and shallow-buried rock masses and the corresponding anchorage system are presented. The monitoring results indicate that the global stability of the large wedge block in the left abutment is effectively under control, and the abutment slope is stable in a global sense. After the completion of excavation, the deformations of toppling block at the top of the slope and deep fracture zone continue at a very low rate, which can be explained as 'rock mass creep'. Further monitoring and analysis are needed.

Views on patient safety by operations managers in somatic hospital care: a qualitative analysis

Healthcare outcome is to achieve optimal health for each patient. It is a well-known phenomenon that patients suffer from care injuries. Operations managers have difficulties in seeing that the relationship between safety culture, values and attitudes affects the medical care to the detriment of the patient. The aim was to describe the views on patient safety by operations managers and the establishment of patient safety and safety culture in somatic hospital care. Four open questions were answered by 29 operations managers in somatic hospital care. Data analysis was carried out by deductive qualitative content analysis. Operations managers found production to be the most important goal, and patient safety was linked to this basic mission. Safety work meant to achieve optimal health outcomes for each patient in a continuous development of operations. This was accomplished by pursuing a high level of competence among employees, having a functioning report system and preventing medical errors. Safety culture was mentioned to a smaller extent. The primary target of patient safety work by the operations managers was improving care quality which resulted in fewer complications and shorter care time. A change in emphasis to primary safety work is necessary. To accomplish this increased knowledge of communication, teamwork and clinical decision making are required.

A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment

Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.

Probabilistic approach for open pit bench slope stability analysis——A mine case study

The geotechnical slope design of an open pit wall starts at the bench scale configuration.At this scale,the rock slope stability is governed primarily by the geological discontinuities within the rock mass and as a result,structurally-controlled failures(e.g.planar,wedge or toppling)are most likely to occur.The probabilistic approach offers a major advantage over the traditional deterministic method in that it accounts for the different degrees of variability and uncertainty often encountered in rock properties.This paper presents a bench slope stability assessment for an open pit mine in Peru using a probabilistic-based approach by coupling a kinematic analysis based on stereographic projection techniques followed by a kinetic analysis by means of the limit equilibrium method.Finally,these two probabilities are combined to provide an overall measure of the probability of failure(PoF)of the bench slope system.The case study is characterized by significant scatter in the geometrical and mechanical properties of the joints.Extensive surface mapping was conducted at 36 different sites following the ISRM suggested procedures.Several direct shear tests were carried out.It is shown that by combining field and laboratory measurements and engineering judgment,the probability density functions(PDF)of the discontinuity parameters can be obtained.These are then used in a Monte Carlo simulation process to compute both kinematic and kinetic probabilities of failure.The overall probability of failure aims to provide the design engineer with a tool to critically evaluate the bench performance from a geotechnical risk perspective and to provide a basis for future bench design optimization.

A new method of formation evaluation for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs:A case study from the Lundong area,Tarim Basin,China

The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.

Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty

In open-pit mines,pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total minable reserve,and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources.One of the most critical sources of uncertainty effects on the pit slope design is rock mass geomechanical properties.By comparing the probability of failure resulted from deterministic procedure and probabilistic one,this paper investigated the effects of aforesaid uncertainties on open-pit slope stability in metal mines.In this way,to reduce the effect of variance,it implemented Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)technique.Furthermore,a hypothesis test was exerted to compare the effects on two cases in Middle East.Subsequently,the investigation approved high influence of geomechanical uncertainties on overall pit steepness and stability in both iron and copper mines,though on the first case the effects were just over.

Handling Uncertainty in Human Cognitive Reliability Method for Safety Assessment Based on DSET

Human Reliability Analysis(HRA)is an important part in safety assessment of a large complex system.Human Cognitive Reliability(HCR)model is a method of evaluating the probability that operators fail to complete during diagnostic decision making within a limited time,which is widely used in HRA.In the application of this method,cognitive patterns of humans are required to be considered and classified,and this process often relies on the evaluation opinions of experts which is highly subjective and uncertain.How to effectively express and process this uncertain and subjective information plays a critical role in improving the accuracy and applicability of HCR.In this paper,a new model was proposed to deal with the uncertain information which exists in the processes of cognitive pattern classification in HCR.First,an evaluation panel was constructed based on expert opinions and processing including setting corresponding anchor points and qualitative indicators of different cognitive patterns,and mapping them to fuzzy numbers and unit intervals.Second,based on the evaluation panel,different analysts judge the cognitive pattern types of actual specific events and provide the level of confidence he or she has in the judgments.Finally,the evaluation opinions of multiple analysts were expressed and fused based on the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory(DSET),and the fused results were applied to the HCR model to obtain the Human Error Probability(HEP).A case study was used to demonstrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Simple Evaluation System for Microbial Property in Soil and Manure

Analyses of microbial properties in soil and manure had always included the problem that there was no available standard method to evaluate microbial property. The one of the major problems was the vast diversity and the enormous population of soil microorganisms [1], the other was an existence of numerically dominant unculturable microorganisms which comprise 99% of soil habitat [2]. We evaluated whether our newly developed method, by which taxonomies and their number of each bacterial groups were estimated, could be used as evaluation method of microbial properties of soils and manures. In the forest soil, β-Proteobacteria, which included Burkholderia sp., Ralstonia sp., and Alcaligenes sp., was numerically dominant bacteria (3.64 × 106 MPN g-1 dry soil), followed by γ-Proteobacteria (1.32 × 106 MPN), δ-Proteobacteria (0.006 × 106 MPN), and the other gram negative bacteria (0.006 × 106 MPN). In the commercial manure, Actinobacteria, which included Streptoverticillium salmonis, Mycrococcus sp., Streptomyces bikiniensis, and Microbacterium ulmi, was numerically dominant bacterial group (30.8 × 106 MPN), followed by α-Proteobacteria (26.0 × 106 MPN), β-Proteobacteria (17.1 × 106 MPN), δ-Proteobacteria (11.2 × 106 MPN), the other Firmicutes (1.71 × 106 MPN), γ-Proteobacteria (0.5 × 106 MPN), and the other gram negative bacteria (0.05 × 106 MPN). In the upland field, the other Firmicutes, which included Paenibacillus sp., was numerically dominant bacteria (4.41 × 106 MPN), followed by Actinobacteria (2.14 × 106 MPN), Bacillus sp. (2.14 × 106 MPN), and γ-Proteobacteria (0.35 × 106 MPN). Although the precision of the affiliations became lower because of higher diversity of samples and the number of some Antinobacteria and Firmicutes might be underestimated by the used PCR condition, the method was found suitable as a candidate of a new evaluation system of soil and manure.

A Framework for Modern Risk-Informed Root Cause Analysis Process

The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.

Radiotherapy reliability analysis based on PSA method

The reliability of radiotherapy was evaluated and effective approaches were obtained in order to improve radiotherapy quality by using the Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) method. This study investigated the feasibility of the PSA method being applied to radiotherapy through Image-guided Radiotherapy(IGRT) and chest tumor irradiation. A fault tree has been constructed after analyzing causal relationship of the events.After calculating Risk A, a total inaccuracy radiotherapy probability and the importance of all base events were obtained. The probability of inaccurate radiotherapy was 2.87%. Under the condition that the target delineation was perfectly right, the accuracy of radiotherapy significantly improved. With the calculation without Conebeam Computed Tomography(CBCT) being corrected before irradiation, the accuracy significantly decreased.The most important events were connected with the human factor. Improving human technical level could enhance radiotherapy quality control efficiently.

故障树和模糊贝叶斯网络在管廊运维风险评估中的应用研究

地下综合管廊是城市的生命线,一旦出现问题就会对人们生命财产安全造成巨大损害。为了系统地分析管廊运维风险,建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的风险评估框架。首先,通过分析管廊运维风险源与风险形成的原因以确定风险事件和风险类别;其次,建立管廊运维风险故障树来梳理风险因素之间的逻辑关系,将故障树映射为贝叶斯网络;最后,结合专家模糊评价,构建地下综合管廊运维风险评估模型。案例分析结果显示:中间事件“火灾、爆炸”与“危害气体浓度过高”的发生概率较高。敏感性分析结果显示:“运维人员操作和维护不当”是导致管廊运维风险发生的根本事件,因此需要制定严格管理措施及规范,加强对运维人员的素质培训,以降低管廊运维过程中各种风险的发生概率。

Development and technology status of energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs

Utilizing energy storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs can improve productivity while reducing power costs and is one of the best ways to achieve synergistic development of"Carbon Peak–Carbon Neutral"and"Underground Resource Utiliza-tion".Starting from the development of Compressed Air Energy Storage(CAES)technology,the site selection of CAES in depleted gas and oil reservoirs,the evolution mechanism of reservoir dynamic sealing,and the high-flow CAES and injection technology are summarized.It focuses on analyzing the characteristics,key equipment,reservoir construction,application scenarios and cost analysis of CAES projects,and sorting out the technical key points and existing difficulties.The devel-opment trend of CAES technology is proposed,and the future development path is scrutinized to provide reference for the research of CAES projects in depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

基于多轴强度准则的混凝土面板应力安全评价方法研究

混凝土面板作为面板堆石坝的关键防渗结构,其应力变形安全对保障工程安全运行至关重要。目前工程中普遍采用混凝土单轴标准强度评价面板应力安全,该方法忽略了面板应力状态对其强度的影响,会对面板破坏范围作出不合理的判断,因此,提出了基于多轴强度准则的混凝土面板应力安全评价方法,该方法通过确定混凝土强度调整系数及多轴强度应力水平指标评价面板应力安全。联合基于位移多点约束法的面板精细化计算方法及改进黏弹性方法全面考虑动位移和永久变形对面板动应力的影响,细致模拟地震过程中面板破坏发展过程。以强震区狭窄河谷上240 m级特高面板坝为例,对比分析了文中提出的多轴强度方法与当前单轴强度方法判断面板破坏范围的差异,结果表明:正常蓄水期,坝肩两侧面板位于“抗压强度削减区”、河床面板均位于“抗压强度增强区”,其中河床底部面板强度增加尤为明显,两种方法判断的面板受拉破坏区基本一致,但受压破坏区存在较大差异;遭遇地震情况下,多轴强度方法判断的面板受拉破坏区略小,而两种方法受压破坏区的位置和大小均存在显著差异。鉴于单轴强度方法无法考虑面板应力分布对其强度的影响,建议采用多轴强度准则指导特高面板坝混凝土面板设计和施工。

基于PHA-LEC-SCL法高校实验室安全评价体系的研究

随着高校科研项目的增加,人员的流动性增强,安全事故也随之增加。通过对高校实验室安全管理工作的总结与分析,探讨了影响实验室安全的各种因素,运用预先危险性分析法(PHA),对高校实验室的危险有害因素进行识别和定性分析,并将作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)与之相结合,对各子系统进行风险评估,并对其风险程度进行定量计算。采用安全检查表(SCL)对高校实验室进行安全综合评价,建立了安全评价方法之间的内在联系,从而定性定量的判定高校实验室安全等级,以便及时对危险有害因素做出反应,防止事故的发生。