Dynamic probability evaluation of safety levels of earth-rockfill dams using Bayesian approach

In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined wfth the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.

An approach to operational risk modeling and estimation of safety levels for deep water work class remotely operated vehicle-A case study with reference to ROSUB 6000

This paper presents a quantitative approach to operational risk modeling and estimation of safety integrity levels,required for the deep water electric work class remotely operated vehicle with reference to ROSUB6000 developed by the National Institute of Ocean Technology,India.ROSUB6000 is used for carrying out bathymetric surveys,gas hydrate surveys,poly-metallic nodule exploration,salvage operations,and meeting emergency response situations.The system is expected to be in operation for a period of 300 h per year,and has to be extremely safe and reliable.Methods and models for the quantitative assessment of operational safety and estimation of safety integrity levels for ROV are seldom available in the deep water intervention industry.The safety instrumented functions implemented in the ROV should be able to meet the SIL requirements of specific mission.This study indicates that the required safety factors are implemented into the design of the state-of-the-art ROV ROSUB 6000,considering IEC 61508/61511 recommendations on Health,Safety and Environment and it is found that the system is able to meet the required SIL for seven identified functions.This paper gives the design and safety engineers in the ROV industry,an overview of the numerical operational risk assessment methods and safety-centered ROV engineering.

Study on mechanical characteristics and safety evaluation method of steel frame structure after fire

Mechanical characterization of steel frame structure after fire are ana- lyzed based on fire dynamics, heat transfer theory, structural mechanics, and finite element theory. We study the temperature characteristics and mechanical prop- erties of steel flame structure under different fire locations and propose a safety evaluation method. We also analyze damage level of main flame components, maximum temperature of fire, thermal characteristics of flame components, fir- ing duration, etc. to provide useful information for fire resistance design of the steel frame structure and post-disaster safety evaluation.

Parameter uncertainty modeling of safety instrumented systems

In this study,a novel safety integrity level(SIL)determination methodology of safety instrumented systems(SISs)with parameter uncertainty is proposed by combining multistage dynamic Bayesian networks(DBNs)and Monte Carlo simulation.A multistage DBN model for SIL determination with multiple redundant cells is established.The models of function inspection test interval and function inspection test stages are alternately connected to form the multistage DBNs.The redundant cells can have different M out of N voting system architectures.An automatic modeling of conditional probability between nodes is developed.The SIL determination of SISs with parameter uncertainty is constructed by using the multistage DBNs and Monte Carlo simulation.A high-pressure SIS in the export of oil wellplatform is adopted to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach.The SIL and availability of the SIS and its subsystems are obtained.The influence of single subsystem on the SIL and availability of the SIS is studied.The influence of single redundant element on the SIL and availability of the subsystem is analyzed.A user-friendly SIL determination software with parameter uncertainty is developed on MATLAB graphical user interface.

Design of a personnel safety interlock system for proton therapy

Proton therapy is the most advanced radiotherapy approach in the world,and causes less damage to normal human tissue than traditional radiotherapy.Because the treatment process produces a high-energy proton beam,the personnel safety interlock system mainly considers measures to protect personnel from radiation hazards during beam preparation and the beam release process.Unlike other safety interlock systems,the personnel safety interlock system designed in this study focuses on the safety and stability of the system itself.The hardware and software of important interlock control loops are designed and developed according to the requirements of Safety Integrity Level 3 specified by IEC61508.A set of redundant ring networks was developed to ensure that damage to a certain network line does not affect the normal operation of the system.A set of friendly operation interfaces and data storage systems were developed to ensure that the operator can monitor the data in real time and trace the data.The personnel safety interlock system mainly includes a beam enabling function,clearance function,and emergency stop function.The system was put into actual use and successfully ensured personnel safety.

FUZZY RELIABILITY-BASED OPTIMUM DESIGN OF LAMINATED COMPOSITES

In conventional reliability-based optimum design of structures, the reliability is computed based on the probability assumption, and the design objective and constraint are considered as deterministic ones. In many cases, however, there exist some fuzzy factors in the design objective and constraint functions. In this paper, the fuzzy reliability and fuzzy constraint are introduced to establish the fuzzy reliability-based optimum model for laminated composites. The examples show that the method developed in this paper can give consideration to both the reliability demand and the economic aspect of a structure. Since the fuzzy reliability-based optimum design is a ＇soft＇ design, the present results provide a new methodology for the effective evaluation of structural reliability and bring us an alternative optimum design idea.

Fault-Tolerant Tree-Based Multicasting in Mesh Multicomputers

We propose a fault-tolerant tree-based multicast algorithm for 2-dimensional (2-D) meshes based on the concept of the extended safety level which is a vector associated with each node to capture fault information in the neighborhood. In this approach each destination is reached through a minimum number of hops. In order to minimize the total number of traffic steps, three heuristic strategies are proposed. This approach can be easily implemented by pipelined circuit switching (PCS). A simulation study is conducted to measure the total number of traffic steps under different strategies. Our approach is the first attempt to address the fault- tolerant tree-based multicast problem in 2-D meshes based on limited global information with a simple model and succinct information.

Design and RAMS Analysis of a Fault-Tolerant Computer Control System

This paper presents a fault-tolerant computer system. It is designed as a double 2-out-of-2 architecture based on component redundant technique. Also, a quantitative probabilistic model is presented for evaluating the reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS) of this architecture. Hierarchical modeling method and Markov modeling method are used in RAMS analysis to evaluate the system characteristics. The double 2-out-of-2 system is compared with the other two systems, all voting triple modular redundancy (AVTMR) system and dual-duplex system. According to the result, the double 2-out-of-2 system has the highest dependability. Especially, the system can satisfy the safety integrity level (SIL) 4, which means the system’s probability of catastrophic failure less than or equal to 10-8 per hour, therefore, it can be applied to life critical systems such as high-speed railway systems.