Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

An Innovative Deep Architecture for Flight Safety Risk Assessment Based on Time Series Data

With the development of the integration of aviation safety and artificial intelligence,research on the combination of risk assessment and artificial intelligence is particularly important in the field of risk management,but searching for an efficient and accurate risk assessment algorithm has become a challenge for the civil aviation industry.Therefore,an improved risk assessment algorithm(PS-AE-LSTM)based on long short-term memory network(LSTM)with autoencoder(AE)is proposed for the various supervised deep learning algorithms in flight safety that cannot adequately address the problem of the quality on risk level labels.Firstly,based on the normal distribution characteristics of flight data,a probability severity(PS)model is established to enhance the quality of risk assessment labels.Secondly,autoencoder is introduced to reconstruct the flight parameter data to improve the data quality.Finally,utilizing the time-series nature of flight data,a long and short-termmemory network is used to classify the risk level and improve the accuracy of risk assessment.Thus,a risk assessment experimentwas conducted to analyze a fleet landing phase dataset using the PS-AE-LSTMalgorithm to assess the risk level associated with aircraft hard landing events.The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves an accuracy of 86.45%compared with seven baseline models and has excellent risk assessment capability.

Running safety assessment method of trains under seismic conditions based on the derailment risk domain

The accurate assessment of running safety during earthquakes is of significant importance for ensuring the safety of railway lines.Currently,assessment methods based on a single index suffer from issues such as misjudgment of operational safety and difficulty in evaluating operational margin,making them unsuitable for assessing train safety during earthquakes.Therefore,in order to propose an effective evaluation method for the running safety of trains during earthquakes,this study employs three indexes,namely lateral displacement of the wheel–rail contact point,wheel unloading rate,and wheel lift,to describe the lateral and vertical contact states between the wheel and rail.The corresponding evolution characteristics of the wheel–rail contact states are determined,and the derailment forms under different frequency components of seismic motion are identified through dynamic numerical simulations of the train–track coupled system under sine excitation.The variations in the wheel–rail contact states during the transition from a safe state to the critical state of derailment are analyzed,thereby constructing the evolutionary path of train derailment and seismic derailment risk domain.Lastly,the wheel–rail contact and derailment states under seismic conditions are analyzed,thus verifying the effectiveness of the evaluation method for assessing running safety under earthquakes proposed in this study.The results indicate that the assessment method based on the derailment risk domain accurately and comprehensively reflects the wheel–rail contact states under seismic conditions.It successfully determines the forms of train derailment,the risk levels of derailment,and the evolutionary paths of derailment risk.

Safety Risk Assessment Analysis of Bridge Construction Using Backpropagation Neural Network

The evaluation of construction safety risks has become a crucial task with the increasing development of bridge construction.This paper aims to provide an overview of the application of backpropagation neural networks in assessing safety risks during bridge construction.It introduces the situation,principles,methods,and advantages,as well as the current status and future development directions of backpropagation-related research.

The risk early-warning of gas hazard in coal mine based on Rough Set-neural network

This article proposed the risk early-warning model of gas hazard based on Rough Set and neural network. The attribute quantity was reduced by Rough Set, the main characteristic attributes were withdrawn, the complexity of neural network system and the computing time was reduced, as well. Because of fault-tolerant ability, parallel processing ability, anti-jamming ability and processing non-linear problem ability of neural network system, the methods of Rough Set and neural network were combined. The examples research indicate： applying Rough Set and BP neural network to the gas hazard risk early-warning coal mines in coal mine, the BPNN structure is greatly simplified, the network computation quantity is reduced and the convergence rate is speed up.

基于DNV SAFETI Route模型的危险货物道路运输风险模拟

DNV SAFETI Route运输路线模型是专业的运输活动风险评估模型,根据所有可能发生事故的地点分布潜在事故的总频率,计算出沿线的总体风险水平。选择事故场景为大孔泄漏,对发生泄漏情景引发的火灾、爆炸和毒性物质扩散事故后果进行预测。根据后果预测结果,进而可以得到周边防护目标所承受的个人风险和社会风险曲线。

Safety risk management of underground engineering in China：Progress, challenges and strategies

Underground construction in China is featured by large scale, high speed, long construction period,complex operation and frustrating situations regarding project safety. Various accidents have been reported from time to time, resulting in serious social impact and huge economic loss. This paper presents the main progress in the safety risk management of underground engineering in China over the last decade, i.e.（1） establishment of laws and regulations for safety risk management of underground engineering,（2） implementation of the safety risk management plan,（3） establishment of decision support system for risk management and early-warning based on information technology, and（4） strengthening the study on safety risk management, prediction and prevention. Based on the analysis of the typical accidents in China in the last decade, the new challenges in the safety risk management for underground engineering are identified as follows：（1） control of unsafe human behaviors;（2） technological innovation in safety risk management; and（3） design of safety risk management regulations. Finally, the strategies for safety risk management of underground engineering in China are proposed in six aspects, i.e. the safety risk management system and policy, law, administration, economy, education and technology.

Health Risk Assessment on Rural Drinking Water Safety —A Case Study in Rain City District of Ya’an City of Sichuan Province

Taking Rain City District of Ya’an for example, this paper based on ComGIS (Component Object Model Geographic Information System) platform takes comprehensive and systematic detection on the exposure dose of chemical carcinogens and non-carcinogens from drinking water sources in this region and discusses health risk assessment of single factor and the whole health risk assessment. As, Hg, Cr, Pb, Cd and fluorides in some drinking water sources of Rain City District are analyzed according to Standards For Drinking Wa-ter Quality (GB5749-2006). A health risk assessment model called USEPA is also applied to drinking water health risk assessment and management countermeasure is proposed. The results show that the greatest health risk for individual person per year is caused by Cr(VI). The health risk of carcinogens is much higher than that of non-carcinogens: the greatest risk value due to non-carcinogen pollutants is caused by fluoride (F), achieving 1.05×10-8/a. The ranking of risk values due to non-carcinogen pollutants by drinking water is Pb>fluoride (F)>Hg, within Pb accounting for 44.77%, fluo-ride (F) accounting for 34.30% and Hg accounting for 20.92%. The average individual carcinogenesis annual risk of Cr(VI) is the greatest, achieving 8.91×10-4/a. The ranking of risk value due to chemical carcinogen by rural drinking water of Ya’an is Cr6+>As>Cd, within Cr6+ accounting for 91.12%, As accounting for 5.89% and Cd accounting for 3.00%. Based on this, the strategy and measures of the health risk management are put forward. This study has worked efficiently in practice. Compared with the same kind of methods which have been found, the paper has the outstanding results for the health risk assessment of the rural drinking water safety.

Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park(SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level.The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

The Application of Big data Mining in Risk Warning for Food Safety

Comprehensive evaluation and warning is very important and difficult in food safety. This paper mainly focuses on introducing the application of using big data mining in food safety warning field. At first,we introduce the concept of big data miming and three big data methods. At the same time,we discuss the application of the three big data miming methods in food safety areas. Then we compare these big data miming methods,and propose how to apply Back Propagation Neural Network in food safety risk warning.

Model calibration concerning risk coefficients of driving safety field model

Driving safety field(DSF) model has been proposed to represent comprehensive driving risk formed by interactions of driver-vehicle-road in mixed traffic environment. In this work, we establish an optimization model based on grey relation degree analysis to calibrate risk coefficients of DSF model. To solve the optimum solution, a genetic algorithm is employed. Finally, the DSF model is verified through a real-world driving experiment. Results show that the DSF model is consistent with driver's hazard perception and more sensitive than TTC. Moreover, the proposed DSF model offers a novel way for criticality assessment and decision-making of advanced driver assistance systems and intelligent connected vehicles.

Formal Safety Assessment of a Marine Seismic Survey Vessel Operation,Incorporating Risk Matrix and Fault Tree Analysis

In maritime safety research,risk is assessed usually within the framework of formal safety assessment(FSA),which provides a formal and systematic methodology to improve the safety of lives,assets,and the environment.A bespoke application of FSA to mitigate accidents in marine seismic surveying is put forward in this paper,with the aim of improving the safety of seismic vessel operations,within the context of developing an economically viable strategy.The work herein takes a close look at the hazards in North Sea offshore seismic surveying,in order to identify critical risk factors,leading to marine seismic survey accidents.The risk factors leading to undesirable events are analysed both qualitatively and quantitatively.A risk matrix is introduced to screen the identified undesirable events.Further to the screening,Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)is presented to investigate and analyse the most critical risks of seismic survey operation,taking into account the lack of historical data.The obtained results show that man overboard(MOB)event is a major risk factor in marine seismic survey operation;lack of training on safe work practice,slippery deck as a result of rain,snow or water splash,sea state affecting human judgement,and poor communication are identified as the critical risk contributors to the MOB event.Consequently,the risk control options are focused on the critical risk contributors for decision-making.Lastly,suggestions for the introduction and development of the FSA methodology are highlighted for safer marine and offshore operations in general.

Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

Quantified risk assessment(QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory.However,attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods,which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories,such as the relationships among risk,safety,danger,and so on.In order to solve this problem,as a first step,fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics,and then illustrated with some charts.Second,man-machine-environment-management(MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk.On the basis of this,a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes:a goal dimension;a management dimension;an operation dimension.This goal management operation(GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart(operation dimension),which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment.Next,the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment(FSA) and Risk Management was researched.This revealed that the FSA method,which the international maritime organization(IMO) is actively spreading,comes from Risk Management theory.Finally,conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently,as well as areas where further research is required.

Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

The new type of risk management is process management. First, the hazardsources are identified before coal mine accidents occur, and then the pre-control measureand information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources aregiven. Lastly, the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed, the managementstandard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources. Inthis study, an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

Safety Risks and Preventive Measures for Construction Supervision of Construction Projects

Based on the analysis of construction project safety risk and its preventive measures, it is first necessary to clarify the safety risks and existing problems of construction project supervision and to formulate effective construction procedures. It is necessary to check the production safety of the construction unit, strengthen the company's own safety production management, and reasonably control the risk to familiarize with the construction drawings, and make a special construction plan for the work of the bottom line. Finally, an elective solution is drawn to comprehensively expound the importance of construction project construction safety risk and its preventive measures.

Application effect of safety hazard self-examination mode in nursing risk management in hepatobiliary surgery

Objective:To explore the application effect of safety hazard self-examination mode in nursing risk management in hepatobiliary surgery.Methods:Sixty patients underwent hepatobiliary surgery in two tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province from May 2021 to October 2021.According to the different implementation time,they were divided into 30 cases in the observation group and 30 cases in the control group.The control group adopts routine risk assessment,and the observation group adopts the self-examination mode of potential safety hazards on the basis of routine risk assessment to compare the incidence of nursing risk between the two groups.Results:The observation group had a significantly lower incidence of safety hazards in terms of missing surgical instruments,lack of aseptic operation,and postoperative pressure injuries than the control group(P<0.05).Conclusion:The appropriate hazard self-examination mode in the hepatobiliary operation room is of positive significance to improve the safety awareness of operating staff and the comprehensive ability of operating room nurses.

Research on the Risk Associated with Rural Drinking Water Safety Based on Catastrophe Theory

In this study, based on the analysis of the catastrophic risk of rural drinking water, with the representative villages in Ya’an as study objects and setting the four evaluation standards: water quality, water quantity, the Guarantee Probability for water Supply and the Convenience Level of the Access to Water Supply as the ba- sic framework, a Rural Drinking Water Safety Assessment was developed (RDWSA). Research showed that Catastrophe Theory was applicable in the RDWSA. Adding RDWSA based on Catastrophe Theory to the supportive system for decision-making in Ecological Hydrographic Management Decision Support System of Ya’an helped obtain the rank and results of RDWSE by the automatic calculation of programs, which could assist the risk assessment and risk management associated with rural drinking water in Ya’an.

Risk Assessment of Quality Safety of Nonlocal Red Bayberry in Cixi City

The nonlocal red bayberry sold in Cixi City were quantitatively analyzed for consecutive four years from 2010 to 2013, in order to understand their pesti- cide pollution. The results showed that the detectable rate of pesticide was 55.56%, and the pesticide detectable rate of samples was 59.09% in red bayberry. The exceeding standard rate of pesticides was 15.87%. In terms of safety index, the risk and safety state of all pesticides were within an acceptable range except cyhalothrin. In terms of risk coefficient, omethoate, triazophos and isocarbophes were at high-risk state, and the remaining 19 kinds of pesticides were at low-risk state.

Risk Assessment from Catchment to Consumers as Framed in Water Safety Plans: A Study from Maiduguri Water Treatment Plant, North East Nigeria

Water safety plan as conceived by WHO can lead to prevention of pollution in each component of water supply chain which leads to ensuring safe drinking water. Risk assessment is one of the key components during the development of water safety plan, achieved by identifying hazardous events and estimating their risk towards implementing control measures. This study reports the risk assessment from catchment to consumers in Maiduguri water treatment plant in Northeast Nigeria. Tools such as the field visits, key informant interviews, questionnaire and water quality monitoring were used to identify the hazards and estimate their risk using semi-quantitative matrix. With the existing control measures, the study showed a total of 33 hazardous events;5 in catchment, 16 in treatment plant, 6 in distribution system and 6 at consumers’ points. The risk score indicated 6 are of medium risk and 9 of high risk. Catchment activities, upgrade of treatment facilities and lack of routine maintenance in the treatment plant, pipeline damages in distribution lines, and consumers’ lack of hygiene knowledge and awareness were found to be the major contributory factors which affect the desired quality. Therefore participation and commitment by all relevant stakeholders are fundamental requisite to manage the identified health risks.

Reliability Study on the Risk Precontrol Management System of Coal Mines Safety

Risk precontrol management system of coal mines safety( RPMSCS) provides a set of preventive safety management strategy for high-risk coal industries, which has captured extensive attentions. Fundamentally,there are several membership systems with subsystems in the management system, and the subsystem reliability has an important influence on the management system performance. Through analyzing the structure characteristics of the management system,the phase type distribution was employed to analyze its subsystem reliability by considering repair process and three states including working,fail-abnormal,and fail-emergency states. The reliability indices of the subsystem were derived respectively,including the probabilities that the subsystem in three states,mean time to the first failure, mean time to first failemergency,mean working time to first fail-emergency,and mean maintenance time to the first fail-emergency, are derived respectively. The probabilities of the membership systems and the management system in three states were also derived. Some numerical examples were used to show the procedures. The result is important for better understanding the management system operation and improving its operational performance from the respect of system reliability.