Probability estimation based on grey system theory for simulation evaluation

In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key parameter optimization and analysis of stochastic seismic inversion

Stochastic seismic inversion is the combination of geostatistics and seismic inversion technology which integrates information from seismic records, well logs, and geostatistics into a posterior probability density function （PDF） of subsurface models. The Markov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method is used to sample the posterior PDF and the subsurface model characteristics can be inferred by analyzing a set of the posterior PDF samples. In this paper, we first introduce the stochastic seismic inversion theory, discuss and analyze the four key parameters： seismic data signal-to-noise ratio （S/N）, variogram, the posterior PDF sample number, and well density, and propose the optimum selection of these parameters. The analysis results show that seismic data S/N adjusts the compromise between the influence of the seismic data and geostatistics on the inversion results, the variogram controls the smoothness of the inversion results, the posterior PDF sample number determines the reliability of the statistical characteristics derived from the samples, and well density influences the inversion uncertainty. Finally, the comparison between the stochastic seismic inversion and the deterministic model based seismic inversion indicates that the stochastic seismic inversion can provide more reliable information of the subsurface character.

SMC-PHD based multi-target track-before-detect with nonstandard point observations model

Detection and tracking of multi-target with unknown and varying number is a challenging issue, especially under the condition of low signal-to-noise ratio(SNR). A modified multi-target track-before-detect(TBD) method was proposed to tackle this issue using a nonstandard point observation model. The method was developed from sequential Monte Carlo(SMC)-based probability hypothesis density(PHD) filter, and it was implemented by modifying the original calculation in update weights of the particles and by adopting an adaptive particle sampling strategy. To efficiently execute the SMC-PHD based TBD method, a fast implementation approach was also presented by partitioning the particles into multiple subsets according to their position coordinates in 2D resolution cells of the sensor. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method for time-varying multi-target tracking using raw observation data.

Human Motion Recognition Based on Incremental Learning and Smartphone Sensors

Batch processing mode is widely used in the training process of human motiun recognition. After training, the motion elassitier usually remains invariable. However, if the classifier is to be expanded, all historical data must be gathered for retraining. This consumes a huge amount of storage space, and the new training process will be more complicated. In this paper, we use an incremental learning method to model the motion classifier. A weighted decision tree is proposed to help illustrate the process, and the probability sampling method is also used. The resuhs show that with continuous learning, the motion classifier is more precise. The average classification precision for the weighted decision tree was 88.43% in a typical test. Incremental learning consumes much less time than the batch processing mode when the input training data comes continuously.

Contribution to sample failure probability plot and its solution by Kriging method

To analyze the effect of the region of the model inputs on the model output,a novel concept about contribution to the sample failure probability plot(CSFP) is proposed based on the contribution to the sample mean plot(CSM) and the contribution to the sample variance plot(CSV).The CSFP can be used to analyze the effect of the region of the model inputs on the failure probability.After the definition of CSFP,its property and the differences between CSFP and CSV/CSM are discussed.The proposed CSFP can not only provide the information about which input affects the failure probability mostly,but also identify the contribution of the regions of the input to the failure probability mostly.By employing the Kriging model method on optimized sample points,a solution for CSFP is obtained.The computational cost for solving CSFP is greatly decreased because of the efficiency of Kriging surrogate model.Some examples are used to illustrate the validity of the proposed CSFP and the applicability and feasibility of the Kriging surrogate method based solution for CSFP.

Study on a soil erosion sampling survey in the Pan-Third Pole region based on higher-resolution images

Soil erosion is one of the most severe global environmental problems,and soil erosion surveys are the scientific basis for planning soil conservation and ecological development.To improve soil erosion sampling survey methods and accurately and rapidly estimate the actual rates of soil erosion,a Pan-Third Pole region was taken as an example to study a methodology of soil erosion sampling survey based on high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images.The sampling units were designed using a stratified variable probability systematic sampling method.The spatiotemporal characteristics of soil erosion and conservation were taken into account,and finer-resolution freely available and accessible images in Google Earth were used.Through the visual interpretation of the free high-resolution remote sensing images,detailed information on land use and soil conservation measures was obtained.Then,combined with the regional soil erosion factor data products,such as rainfall-runoff erosivity factor(R),soil erodibility factor(K),and slope length and steepness factor(LS),the soil loss rates of some sampling units were calculated.The results show that,based on these high-resolution remote sensing images,the land use and soil conservation measures of the sampling units can be quickly and accurately extracted.The interpretation accuracy in 4 typical cross sections was more than 80%,and sampling accuracy,described by histogram similarity in 11 large sampling sites,show that the landuse of sampling uints can represent the structural characteristics of regional land use.Based on the interpretation of data from the sample survey and the regional soil erosion factor data products,the calculation of the soil erosion rate can be completed quickly.The calculation results can reflect the actual conditions of soil erosion better than the potential soil erosion rates calculated by using the coarse-resolution remote sensing method.