Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China,and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics

Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.

New Progress in the Application of Satellite Thermal Infrared Imagery to Earthquake Prediction

The concept of stochastic resonance (SR) has been introduced into the analysis of satellite thermal infrared images. Six kinds of anomalous phenomena related to crustal movement were recognized in satellite thermal infrared images. Six diagnostic indicators for the prediction of global earthquakes with magnitude ≥6.0 and their quantitative evaluation standards have been established. The microscopic behavior of global crustal movement is successfully controlled by using satellite thermal infrared imagery, and the occurrence time and magnitude of over 80% of global strong earthquakes occurred since the foundation of the observation station have been successfully predicted. It is believed that the combination of satellite thermal infrared information with macroscopic anomalous phenomena will play an important role in earthquake hazard reduction.

Time Series Analysis on the Ratio for Pixels with Abnormal Brightness Temperature Increase and Its Variation Before Some Earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 in the Taiwan Region

In the study of the application of MODIS satellite remote sensing data to earthquake prediction, the paper puts forward for the first time a quantitative method to estimate the ratio for the pixels with abnormal brightness temperature (BT) increase and a preliminary scheme for cloud removal. The principle is that, firstly, the cloudless data observed by the same satellite at the same period of time but in different days (usually 1 day to 3 days) are mosaiced to get high ratio of clear sky, and then the BT variation curve and mean square difference (MSD) of each pixel are calculated with the data from the covered area to determine daily whether the BT data of the day is normal or not at a certain pixel by using double the MSD as the criterion. The ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase can be calculated by dividing the total number of abnormal pixels with the total pixels of the whole area. Analysis on a series of recent earthquakes in the Taiwan Region shows that the ratio for pixels with abnormal BT increase, which normally undulates around zero, has a sudden enhancement 1 day to 20 days before medium-strong earthquakes. It is expected that a new method for identifying earthquake auspice could be found through special studies in regions with frequent seismic activity by analyzing the change of the ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase from MODIS satellite remote sensing infrared (IR) information from which the effect of clouds has been removed to a certain extent.