This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general ...This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to he strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.展开更多
By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China, the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and A1B scenar...By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China, the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and A1B scenarios from 2012 to 2100, respectively. The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future. The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2, and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100. The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3% and 12.5% for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO2, while an increase of 1.3% and 0.6% with the fertilization effect of CO2. Additionally, for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios, independent with the fertilization effect of CO2, which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China. The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties, which need some days of low temperature for dormancy. While in southern China, the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter, thus, they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases. The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures.展开更多
As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-197...As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of ＂tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）,special report on emission scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century, although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it.展开更多
Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, fiv...Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.展开更多
To assist conservationists and policymakers in managing and protecting forests in Beijing from the effects of climate change,this study predicts changes for 2012–2112 in habitable areas of three tree species—Betula ...To assist conservationists and policymakers in managing and protecting forests in Beijing from the effects of climate change,this study predicts changes for 2012–2112 in habitable areas of three tree species—Betula platyphylla,Quercus palustris,Platycladus orientalis,plus other mixed broadleaf species—in Beijing using a classification and regression tree niche model under the International Panel on Climate Change’s A2 and B2 emissions scenarios(SRES).The results show that climate change will increase annual average temperatures in the Beijing area by 2.0–4.7℃,and annual precipitation by 4.7–8.5 mm,depending on the emissions scenario used.These changes result in shifts in the range of each of the species.New suitable areas for distributions of B.platyphylla and Q.palustris will decrease in the future.The model points to significant shifts in the distributions of these species,withdrawing from their current ranges and pushing southward towards central Beijing.Most of the ranges decline during the initial 2012–2040 period before shifting southward and ending up larger overall at the end of the 88-year period.The mixed broadleaf forests expand their ranges significantly.The P.orientalis forests,on the other hand,expand their range marginally.The results indicate that climate change and its effects will accelerate significantly in Beijing over the next 88 years.Water stress is likely to be a major limiting factor on the distribution of forests and the most important factor affecting migration of species into and out of existing nature reserves.There is a potential for the extinction of some species.Therefore,long-term vegetation monitoring and warning systems will be needed to protect local species from habitat loss and genetic swamping of native species by hybrids.展开更多
This study evaluated the site-specific effects of projected future climate conditions on the productivity of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) plantations over the next 50 years (2011-2061). Climatic parameters as pre...This study evaluated the site-specific effects of projected future climate conditions on the productivity of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) plantations over the next 50 years (2011-2061). Climatic parameters as predicted by the Canadian Global Climate Model in association with a regional spatial climatic model, under 3 emissions scenarios (no change (NC), B1 and A2), were used as input values to a biophysical-based site-specific height-age model that was integrated into the CROPLANNER model and associated algorithm. Plantations managed under a basic silvicultural intensity on two site qualities at each of two geographically separated sites (northeastern and northwestern Ontario, Canada) were assessed. The results indicated that the stands situated on low-to-medium quality sites at both locations were largely unaffected by the predicted increase in temperature and precipitation rates. Conversely, however, stands situated on good-to-excellent quality sites grown under the B1 and A2 scenarios experienced consequential declines in stand development rates resulting in decreases in rotational mean sizes, biomass yields, recoverable end-product volumes, and economic worth. In addition to providing a plausible range of site-specific climate change outcomes on jack pine productivity within the central portion of the species range, these results suggest that future predictions that do not account for potential climate changes effects may overes- timate merchantable productivity on the higher site qualities by approximately 15%. As demonstrated, in- corporating biophysical-based site index functions within existing forest productivity models may repre- sent a feasible approach when accounting for climate change effects on yield outcomes of boreal species.展开更多
The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interact...The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.展开更多
A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 ...A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-SW-210)the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203)the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040904).
文摘This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to he strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.
基金supported by the impact of agrometeorology disasters on agriculture under climate change in China(No.GYHY201106021)National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB955301)
文摘By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China, the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and A1B scenarios from 2012 to 2100, respectively. The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future. The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2, and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100. The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3% and 12.5% for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO2, while an increase of 1.3% and 0.6% with the fertilization effect of CO2. Additionally, for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios, independent with the fertilization effect of CO2, which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China. The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties, which need some days of low temperature for dormancy. While in southern China, the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter, thus, they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases. The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.40375034the Special Climate Project of China Meteorological Administration.
文摘As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of ＂tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）,special report on emission scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century, although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it.
基金supported by the National Technology R&D Program (Grant nos. 2006BAD20B05 and 2008BAK50B06)
文摘Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.
基金This research was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University(2018RD001).
文摘To assist conservationists and policymakers in managing and protecting forests in Beijing from the effects of climate change,this study predicts changes for 2012–2112 in habitable areas of three tree species—Betula platyphylla,Quercus palustris,Platycladus orientalis,plus other mixed broadleaf species—in Beijing using a classification and regression tree niche model under the International Panel on Climate Change’s A2 and B2 emissions scenarios(SRES).The results show that climate change will increase annual average temperatures in the Beijing area by 2.0–4.7℃,and annual precipitation by 4.7–8.5 mm,depending on the emissions scenario used.These changes result in shifts in the range of each of the species.New suitable areas for distributions of B.platyphylla and Q.palustris will decrease in the future.The model points to significant shifts in the distributions of these species,withdrawing from their current ranges and pushing southward towards central Beijing.Most of the ranges decline during the initial 2012–2040 period before shifting southward and ending up larger overall at the end of the 88-year period.The mixed broadleaf forests expand their ranges significantly.The P.orientalis forests,on the other hand,expand their range marginally.The results indicate that climate change and its effects will accelerate significantly in Beijing over the next 88 years.Water stress is likely to be a major limiting factor on the distribution of forests and the most important factor affecting migration of species into and out of existing nature reserves.There is a potential for the extinction of some species.Therefore,long-term vegetation monitoring and warning systems will be needed to protect local species from habitat loss and genetic swamping of native species by hybrids.
文摘This study evaluated the site-specific effects of projected future climate conditions on the productivity of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) plantations over the next 50 years (2011-2061). Climatic parameters as predicted by the Canadian Global Climate Model in association with a regional spatial climatic model, under 3 emissions scenarios (no change (NC), B1 and A2), were used as input values to a biophysical-based site-specific height-age model that was integrated into the CROPLANNER model and associated algorithm. Plantations managed under a basic silvicultural intensity on two site qualities at each of two geographically separated sites (northeastern and northwestern Ontario, Canada) were assessed. The results indicated that the stands situated on low-to-medium quality sites at both locations were largely unaffected by the predicted increase in temperature and precipitation rates. Conversely, however, stands situated on good-to-excellent quality sites grown under the B1 and A2 scenarios experienced consequential declines in stand development rates resulting in decreases in rotational mean sizes, biomass yields, recoverable end-product volumes, and economic worth. In addition to providing a plausible range of site-specific climate change outcomes on jack pine productivity within the central portion of the species range, these results suggest that future predictions that do not account for potential climate changes effects may overes- timate merchantable productivity on the higher site qualities by approximately 15%. As demonstrated, in- corporating biophysical-based site index functions within existing forest productivity models may repre- sent a feasible approach when accounting for climate change effects on yield outcomes of boreal species.
基金the Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2002CB412500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 30590384)
文摘The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675038,National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program-2006CB403404)the Chinese Academy of Sciences innovative team of international cooperation partnership projects(the project of climate system model development and application studies).
文摘A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.
