Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

An Arbitrarily High Order and Asymptotic Preserving Kinetic Scheme in Compressible Fluid Dynamic

We present a class of arbitrarily high order fully explicit kinetic numerical methods in compressible fluid dynamics,both in time and space,which include the relaxation schemes by Jin and Xin.These methods can use the CFL number larger or equal to unity on regular Cartesian meshes for the multi-dimensional case.These kinetic models depend on a small parameter that can be seen as a"Knudsen"number.The method is asymptotic preserving in this Knudsen number.Also,the computational costs of the method are of the same order of a fully explicit scheme.This work is the extension of Abgrall et al.(2022)[3]to multidimensional systems.We have assessed our method on several problems for two-dimensional scalar problems and Euler equations and the scheme has proven to be robust and to achieve the theoretically predicted high order of accuracy on smooth solutions.

Orbit Weighting Scheme in the Context of Vector Space Information Retrieval

This study introduces the Orbit Weighting Scheme(OWS),a novel approach aimed at enhancing the precision and efficiency of Vector Space information retrieval(IR)models,which have traditionally relied on weighting schemes like tf-idf and BM25.These conventional methods often struggle with accurately capturing document relevance,leading to inefficiencies in both retrieval performance and index size management.OWS proposes a dynamic weighting mechanism that evaluates the significance of terms based on their orbital position within the vector space,emphasizing term relationships and distribution patterns overlooked by existing models.Our research focuses on evaluating OWS’s impact on model accuracy using Information Retrieval metrics like Recall,Precision,InterpolatedAverage Precision(IAP),andMeanAverage Precision(MAP).Additionally,we assessOWS’s effectiveness in reducing the inverted index size,crucial for model efficiency.We compare OWS-based retrieval models against others using different schemes,including tf-idf variations and BM25Delta.Results reveal OWS’s superiority,achieving a 54%Recall and 81%MAP,and a notable 38%reduction in the inverted index size.This highlights OWS’s potential in optimizing retrieval processes and underscores the need for further research in this underrepresented area to fully leverage OWS’s capabilities in information retrieval methodologies.

Side Information-Based Stealthy False Data Injection Attacks Against Multi-Sensor Remote Estimation

Dear Editor,This letter investigates a novel stealthy false data injection(FDI)attack scheme based on side information to deteriorate the multi-sensor estimation performance of cyber-physical systems(CPSs).Compared with most existing works depending on the full system knowledge,this attack scheme is only related to attackers'sensor and physical process model.The design principle of the attack signal is derived to diverge the system estimation performance.Next,it is proven that the proposed attack scheme can successfully bypass the residual-based detector.Finally,all theoretical results are verified by numerical simulation.

Deployment Dynamic Modeling and Driving Schemes for a Ring-Truss Deployable Antenna

Mesh reflector antennas are widely used in space tasks owing to their light weight,high surface accuracy,and large folding ratio.They are stowed during launch and then fully deployed in orbit to form a mesh reflector that transmits signals.Smooth deployment is essential for duty services;therefore,accurate and efficient dynamic modeling and analysis of the deployment process are essential.One major challenge is depicting time-varying resistance of the cable network and capturing the cable-truss coupling behavior during the deployment process.This paper proposes a general dynamic analysis methodology for cable-truss coupling.Considering the topological diversity and geometric nonlinearity,the cable network's equilibrium equation is derived,and an explicit expression of the time-varying tension of the boundary cables,which provides the main resistance in truss deployment,is obtained.The deployment dynamic model is established,which considers the coupling effect between the soft cables and deployable truss.The effects of the antenna's driving modes and parameters on the dynamic deployment performance were investigated.A scaled prototype was manufactured,and the deployment experiment was conducted to verify the accuracy of the proposed modeling method.The proposed methodology is suitable for general cable antennas with arbitrary topologies and parameters,providing theoretical guidance for the dynamic performance evaluation of antenna driving schemes.

On the Use of Monotonicity-Preserving Interpolatory Techniques in Multilevel Schemes for Balance Laws

Cost-effective multilevel techniques for homogeneous hyperbolic conservation laws are very successful in reducing the computational cost associated to high resolution shock capturing numerical schemes.Because they do not involve any special data structure,and do not induce savings in memory requirements,they are easily implemented on existing codes and are recommended for 1D and 2D simulations when intensive testing is required.The multilevel technique can also be applied to balance laws,but in this case,numerical errors may be induced by the technique.We present a series of numerical tests that point out that the use of monotonicity-preserving interpolatory techniques eliminates the numerical errors observed when using the usual 4-point centered Lagrange interpolation,and leads to a more robust multilevel code for balance laws,while maintaining the efficiency rates observed forhyperbolic conservation laws.

Data-Driven Active Disturbance Rejection Control of Plant-Protection Unmanned Ground Vehicle Prototype: A Fuzzy Indirect Iterative Learning Approach

Dear Editor,This letter proposes a fuzzy indirect iterative learning(FIIL)active disturbance rejection control(ADRC)scheme to address the impact of uncertain factors of plant-protection unmanned ground vehicle(UGV),in which ADRC is a data-driven model-free control algorithm that only relies on the input and output data of the system.Based on the established nonlinear time-varying dynamic model including dynamic load(medicine box),the FIIL technology is adopted to turn the bandwidth and control channel gain online,in which the fuzzy logic system is used to update the gain parameters of iterative learning in real time.Simulation and experiment show the FIIL-ADRC scheme has better control performance.

Overview of computation strategies on the dispersion analysis for explicit finite difference solution of acoustic wave equation

Finite-difference(FD)method is the most extensively employed numerical modeling technique.Nevertheless,when using the FD method to simulate the seismic wave propagation,the large spatial or temporal sampling interval can lead to dispersion errors and numerical instability.In the FD scheme,the key factor in determining both dispersion errors and stability is the selection of the FD weights.Thus,How to obtain appropriate FD weights to guarantee a stable numerical modeling process with minimum dispersion error is critical.The FD weights computation strategies can be classified into three types based on different computational ideologies,window function strategy,optimization strategy,and Taylor expansion strategy.In this paper,we provide a comprehensive overview of these three strategies by presenting their fundamental theories.We conduct a set of comparative analyses of their strengths and weaknesses through various analysis tests and numerical modelings.According to these comparisons,we provide two potential research directions of this field:Firstly,the development of a computational strategy for FD weights that enhances stability;Secondly,obtaining FD weights that exhibit a wide bandwidth while minimizing dispersion errors.

Manipulation of High-Fidelity Sidebands under Large Detuning by Floquet Technology:Application to Multi-Mode Cooling

The Floquet technology,a powerful way to manipulate quantum states,is employed to drive sidebands transition under large detuning.Our results demonstrate that high fidelities over 99%can be achieved through optimizing suitable modulation frequencies under large detuning.We observe high-fidelity transitions within a high bandwidth by utilizing a single modulation frequency and reveal that this capability is due to the emergence of a flat-band structure in the bandwidth range.The key finding of high-fidelity sideband manipulation under large detuning is experimentally confirmed in nuclear magnetic resonance platform.Finally,we propose a new parallel sideband cooling scheme that enables simultaneous cooling of multiple motional modes.This approach improves the cooling rate compared to conventional schemes with fixed laser frequency and power,and eliminates the need for mode-specific addressing.Our Floquet parallel scheme is applicable to any harmonic oscillator system and is not limited by bandwidth in theory.

S-scheme heterojunction with ultrafast interfacial electron transfer for artificial photosynthesis

The rapid development of the global economy has led to the over-exploitation and burning of fossil fuels,causing a severe energy crisis and continuous CO_(2) emissions.Although solar energy is a clean and renewable resource,it faces significant diurnal and seasonal variations and is difficult to store[1-4].Converting solar energy into storable chemical energy through photocatalysis is an effective way to address both energy scarcity and environmental issues.Photocatalytic CO_(2) reduction,with the development of high-efficiency photocatalysts as the key,offers a clean and environmentally friendly method to convert CO_(2) into valuable hydrocarbon fuels,providing a viable solution to the global energy crisis and climate change[5,6].

A Neural-network-based Alternative Scheme to Include Nonhydrostatic Processes in an Atmospheric Dynamical Core

Here,a nonhydrostatic alternative scheme(NAS)is proposed for the grey zone where the nonhydrostatic impact on the atmosphere is evident but not large enough to justify the necessity to include an implicit nonhydrostatic solver in an atmospheric dynamical core.The NAS is designed to replace this solver,which can be incorporated into any hydrostatic models so that existing well-developed hydrostatic models can effectively serve for a longer time.Recent advances in machine learning(ML)provide a potential tool for capturing the main complicated nonlinear-nonhydrostatic relationship.In this study,an ML approach called a neural network(NN)was adopted to select leading input features and develop the NAS.The NNs were trained and evaluated with 12-day simulation results of dry baroclinic-wave tests by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.The forward time difference of the nonhydrostatic tendency was used as the target variable,and the five selected features were the nonhydrostatic tendency at the last time step,and four hydrostatic variables at the current step including geopotential height,pressure in two different forms,and potential temperature,respectively.Finally,a practical NAS was developed with these features and trained layer by layer at a 20-km horizontal resolution,which can accurately reproduce the temporal variation and vertical distribution of the nonhydrostatic tendency.Corrected by the NN-based NAS,the improved hydrostatic solver at different horizontal resolutions can run stably for at least one month and effectively reduce most of the nonhydrostatic errors in terms of system bias,anomaly root-mean-square error,and the error of the wave spatial pattern,which proves the feasibility and superiority of this scheme.

A Non-Parametric Scheme for Identifying Data Characteristic Based on Curve Similarity Matching

For accurately identifying the distribution charac-teristic of Gaussian-like noises in unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)state estimation,this paper proposes a non-parametric scheme based on curve similarity matching.In the framework of the pro-posed scheme,a Parzen window(kernel density estimation,KDE)method on sliding window technology is applied for roughly esti-mating the sample probability density,a precise data probability density function(PDF)model is constructed with the least square method on K-fold cross validation,and the testing result based on evaluation method is obtained based on some data characteristic analyses of curve shape,abruptness and symmetry.Some com-parison simulations with classical methods and UAV flight exper-iment shows that the proposed scheme has higher recognition accuracy than classical methods for some kinds of Gaussian-like data,which provides better reference for the design of Kalman filter(KF)in complex water environment.

Aircraft Observation and Simulation of the Supercooled Liquid Water Layer in a Warm Conveyor Belt over North China

This paper studied a snow event over North China on 21 February 2017,using aircraft in-situ data,a Lagrangian analysis tool,and WRF simulations with different microphysical schemes to investigate the supercooled layer of warm conveyor belts(WCBs).Based on the aircraft data,we found a fine vertical structure within clouds in the WCB and highlighted a 1-2 km thin supercooled liquid water layer with a maximum Liquid Water Content(LWC) exceeding0.5 g kg^(-1) during the vertical aircraft observation.Although the main features of thermodynamic profiles were essentially captured by both modeling schemes,the microphysical quantities exhibited large diversity with different microphysics schemes.The conventional Morrison two-moment scheme showed remarkable agreement with in-situ observations,both in terms of the thermodynamic structure and the supercooled liquid water layer.However,the microphysical structure of the WCB clouds,in terms of LWC and IWC,was not apparent in HUJI fast bin scheme.To reduce such uncertainty,future work may focus on improving the representation of microphysics in bin schemes with in-situ data and using similar assumptions for all schemes to isolate the impact of physics.

Compact ultrafast neutron sources via bulk acceleration of deuteron ions in an optical trap

A scheme for a quasi-monoenergetic high-flux neutron source with femtosecond duration and highly anisotropic angular distribution is proposed.This scheme is based on bulk acceleration of deuteron ions in an optical trap or density grating formed by two counter-propagating laser pulses at an intensity of-10^(16)W~cm^(2)in a near-critical-density plasma.The deuterons are first pre-accelerated to an energy of tens of keV in the ambipolar fields formed in the optical trap.Their energy is boosted to the MeV level by another one or two laser pulses at an intensity of-10^(20)W~cm^(2),enabling fusion reactions to be triggered with high efficiency.In contrast to previously proposed pitcher–catcher configurations,our scheme can provide spatially periodic acceleration structures and effective collisions between deuterons inside the whole target volume.Subsequently,neutrons are generated directly inside the optical trap.Our simulations show that neutron pulses with energy 2–8 MeV,yield 10^(18)–10^(19)n/s,and total number 106–107 in a duration-400 fs can be obtained with a 25μm target.Moreover,the neutron pulses exhibit unique angularly dependent energy spectra and flux distributions,predominantly along the axis of the energy-boosting lasers.Such microsize femtosecond neutron pulses may find many applications,such as high-resolution fast neutron imaging and nuclear physics research.

Verifiable quantum secret sharing scheme based on orthogonal product states

In the domain of quantum cryptography,the implementation of quantum secret sharing stands as a pivotal element.In this paper,we propose a novel verifiable quantum secret sharing protocol using the d-dimensional product state and Lagrange interpolation techniques.This protocol is initiated by the dealer Alice,who initially prepares a quantum product state,selected from a predefined set of orthogonal product states within the C~d■C~d framework.Subsequently,the participants execute unitary operations on this product state to recover the underlying secret.Furthermore,we subject the protocol to a rigorous security analysis,considering both eavesdropping attacks and potential dishonesty from the participants.Finally,we conduct a comparative analysis of our protocol against existing schemes.Our scheme exhibits economies of scale by exclusively employing quantum product states,thereby realizing significant cost-efficiency advantages.In terms of access structure,we adopt a(t, n)-threshold architecture,a strategic choice that augments the protocol's practicality and suitability for diverse applications.Furthermore,our protocol includes a rigorous integrity verification mechanism to ensure the honesty and reliability of the participants throughout the execution of the protocol.

A Hybrid SIR-Fuzzy Model for Epidemic Dynamics:A Numerical Study

This study focuses on the urgent requirement for improved accuracy in diseasemodeling by introducing a newcomputational framework called the Hybrid SIR-Fuzzy Model.By integrating the traditional Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered(SIR)modelwith fuzzy logic,ourmethod effectively addresses the complex nature of epidemic dynamics by accurately accounting for uncertainties and imprecisions in both data and model parameters.The main aim of this research is to provide a model for disease transmission using fuzzy theory,which can successfully address uncertainty in mathematical modeling.Our main emphasis is on the imprecise transmission rate parameter,utilizing a three-part description of its membership level.This enhances the representation of disease processes with greater complexity and tackles the difficulties related to quantifying uncertainty in mathematical models.We investigate equilibrium points for three separate scenarios and perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis,providing insight into the complex correlation betweenmodel parameters and epidemic results.In order to facilitate a quantitative analysis of the fuzzy model,we propose the implementation of a resilient numerical scheme.The convergence study of the scheme demonstrates its trustworthiness,providing a conditionally positive solution,which represents a significant improvement compared to current forward Euler schemes.The numerical findings demonstrate themodel’s effectiveness in accurately representing the dynamics of disease transmission.Significantly,when the mortality coefficient rises,both the susceptible and infected populations decrease,highlighting the model’s sensitivity to important epidemiological factors.Moreover,there is a direct relationship between higher Holling type rate values and a decrease in the number of individuals who are infected,as well as an increase in the number of susceptible individuals.This correlation offers a significant understanding of how many elements affect the consequences of an epidemic.Our objective is to enhance decision-making in public health by providing a thorough quantitative analysis of the Hybrid SIR-Fuzzy Model.Our approach not only tackles the existing constraints in disease modeling,but also paves the way for additional investigation,providing a vital instrument for researchers and policymakers alike.

Improvement and security analysis of multi-ring discrete modulation continuous variable quantum secret sharing scheme

In order to avoid the complexity of Gaussian modulation and the problem that the traditional point-to-point communication DM-CVQKD protocol cannot meet the demand for multi-user key sharing at the same time, we propose a multi-ring discrete modulation continuous variable quantum key sharing scheme(MR-DM-CVQSS). In this paper, we primarily compare single-ring and multi-ring M-symbol amplitude and phase-shift keying modulations. We analyze their asymptotic key rates against collective attacks and consider the security key rates under finite-size effects. Leveraging the characteristics of discrete modulation, we improve the quantum secret sharing scheme. Non-dealer participants only require simple phase shifters to complete quantum secret sharing. We also provide the general design of the MR-DM-CVQSS protocol.We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the improved protocol's performance, confirming that the enhancement through multi-ring M-PSK allows for longer-distance quantum key distribution. Additionally, it reduces the deployment complexity of the system, thereby increasing the practical value.

Review of Collocation Methods and Applications in Solving Science and Engineering Problems

The collocation method is a widely used numerical method for science and engineering problems governed by partial differential equations.This paper provides a comprehensive review of collocation methods and their applications,focused on elasticity,heat conduction,electromagnetic field analysis,and fluid dynamics.The merits of the collocation method can be attributed to the need for element mesh,simple implementation,high computational efficiency,and ease in handling irregular domain problems since the collocation method is a type of node-based numerical method.Beginning with the fundamental principles of the collocation method,the discretization process in the continuous domain is elucidated,and how the collocation method approximation solutions for solving differential equations are explained.Delving into the historical development of the collocation methods,their earliest applications and key milestones are traced,thereby demonstrating their evolution within the realm of numerical computation.The mathematical foundations of collocation methods,encompassing the selection of interpolation functions,definition of weighting functions,and derivation of integration rules,are examined in detail,emphasizing their significance in comprehending the method’s effectiveness and stability.At last,the practical application of the collocation methods in engineering contexts is emphasized,including heat conduction simulations,electromagnetic coupled field analysis,and fluid dynamics simulations.These specific case studies can underscore collocation method’s broad applicability and effectiveness in addressing complex engineering challenges.In conclusion,this paper puts forward the future development trend of the collocation method through rigorous analysis and discussion,thereby facilitating further advancements in research and practical applications within these fields.

Improving Network Availability through Optimized Multipath Routing and Incremental Deployment Strategies

Currently,distributed routing protocols are constrained by offering a single path between any pair of nodes,thereby limiting the potential throughput and overall network performance.This approach not only restricts the flow of data but also makes the network susceptible to failures in case the primary path is disrupted.In contrast,routing protocols that leverage multiple paths within the network offer a more resilient and efficient solution.Multipath routing,as a fundamental concept,surpasses the limitations of traditional shortest path first protocols.It not only redirects traffic to unused resources,effectively mitigating network congestion,but also ensures load balancing across the network.This optimization significantly improves network utilization and boosts the overall performance,making it a widely recognized efficient method for enhancing network reliability.To further strengthen network resilience against failures,we introduce a routing scheme known as Multiple Nodes with at least Two Choices(MNTC).This innovative approach aims to significantly enhance network availability by providing each node with at least two routing choices.By doing so,it not only reduces the dependency on a single path but also creates redundant paths that can be utilized in case of failures,thereby enhancing the overall resilience of the network.To ensure the optimal placement of nodes,we propose three incremental deployment algorithms.These algorithms carefully select the most suitable set of nodes for deployment,taking into account various factors such as node connectivity,traffic patterns,and network topology.By deployingMNTCon a carefully chosen set of nodes,we can significantly enhance network reliability without the need for a complete overhaul of the existing infrastructure.We have conducted extensive evaluations of MNTC in diverse topological spaces,demonstrating its effectiveness in maintaining high network availability with minimal path stretch.The results are impressive,showing that even when implemented on just 60%of nodes,our incremental deployment method significantly boosts network availability.This underscores the potential of MNTC in enhancing network resilience and performance,making it a viable solution for modern networks facing increasing demands and complexities.The algorithms OSPF,TBFH,DC and LFC perform fast rerouting based on strict conditions,while MNTC is not restricted by these conditions.In five real network topologies,the average network availability ofMNTCis improved by 14.68%,6.28%,4.76%and 2.84%,respectively,compared with OSPF,TBFH,DC and LFC.