Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s j...Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly optimal alternative. Aimed at solving these problems, this paper proposes a synthetical assessment process based on fuzzy hesitant linguistic term set and the Gained and Lost Dominance Score(GLDS) method. In order to improve the assessment accuracy of experts and solve the problem that experts generate different opinions, combined with the advantages of fuzzy hesitant sets and linguistic term sets, the double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets are used in this paper to improve the accuracy of expert’s judgement. In order to effectively combine expert’s experience with the data of criteria, the evidence theory and entropy weight method are used to transfer the expert’s judgement to the weight. In order to avoid selecting defective alternative of missile design, the GLDS is used to fuse expert information and criteria information. Sensitivity analysis shows that the assessment process has sensitivity to some extent. However, when the fluctuation of expert’s assessment makes the fluctuation of θ in the range of-5% to 5%, the impact on the results is not quite conspicuous. The analysis of calculation result and comparative analysis show that the assessment process proposed in this paper is accurate enough, has great advantage in selecting the current and potential optimal alternative of missile design, and avoids the alternatives with low criteria performance that cannot be compensated by other criteria being selected.展开更多
Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for construct...Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for constructing parsimonious event risk scores combining a stepwise selection of variables with ensemble scores obtained by aggregation of several scores, using several classifiers, bootstrap samples and various modalities of random selection of variables. Selection methods based on a probabilistic model can be used to achieve a stepwise selection for a given classifier such as logistic regression, but not directly for an ensemble classifier constructed by aggregation of several classifiers. Three selection methods are proposed in this framework, two involving a backward selection of the variables based on their coefficients in an ensemble score and the third involving a forward selection of the variables maximizing the AUC. The stepwise selection allows constructing a succession of scores, with the practitioner able to choose which score best fits his needs. These three methods are compared in an application to construct parsimonious short-term event risk scores in chronic HF patients, using as event the composite endpoint of death or hospitalization for worsening HF within 180 days of a visit. Focusing on the fastest method, four scores are constructed, yielding out-of-bag AUCs ranging from 0.81 (26 variables) to 0.76 (2 variables).展开更多
Clubfoot malformation is the most common serious congenital anomaly affecting the foot in children. Its treatment by the Ponseti method is simple, profitable and widely used in the world. Objective: The objective of t...Clubfoot malformation is the most common serious congenital anomaly affecting the foot in children. Its treatment by the Ponseti method is simple, profitable and widely used in the world. Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the factors of the failure of its treatment by the Ponseti method. Material and Method: We carried out a retrospective and descriptive study of cases of congenital equinus clubfoot varus at the Reference Health Care Center of Commune III of Bamako over 26 months from September 2020 to November 2022. Data were treated with the utmost anonymity. Result: This study was performed on 44 children seen for clubfoot: male (68%) and female (32%), with a sex ratio of 2.1. We obtained 13 cases of recidivism including 7 boys and 6 girls. We found 21 cases of unilateral and 23 bilateral;among which 9 recurrences were found against 4 in the unilateral forms. 85% of recurrences did not have good adherence to the splint and 62% did not come regularly for follow-up consultation. We obtained 33 children with idiopathic clubfeet (75%) with a recurrence of 24%, and 7 children with secondary clubfeet with 71 % recurrence. There was no recurrence in the postural type. Among the recurrences, 38.5% started treatment between 1 and 6 months, 23.1% from 0 to 1 month and 15.4% at 2 years and more. 85% of recurrences had a Pirani score between 4.5 to 6 at the start of treatment and 15% at a score of 2.5 to 4. Conclusion: The factors of the failure of the Ponseti method are mainly non-compliance with treatment, secondary clubfeet, and a high Pirani score at the start of treatment.展开更多
目的:基于倾向性评分匹配法探讨血府逐瘀汤对老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者PFNA术后康复的影响。方法:回顾性分析140例行防旋股骨近端髓内钉(proximal femoral nail antirotation,PFNA)手术治疗的股骨粗隆间骨折患者,使用SPSS 22.0进行倾向性...目的:基于倾向性评分匹配法探讨血府逐瘀汤对老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者PFNA术后康复的影响。方法:回顾性分析140例行防旋股骨近端髓内钉(proximal femoral nail antirotation,PFNA)手术治疗的股骨粗隆间骨折患者,使用SPSS 22.0进行倾向性匹配评分匹配分为观察组(血府逐瘀汤治疗)和对照组(常规支持治疗)各50例,比较两组术后相关康复治疗指标,并对两组用药安全性进行评价分析。结果:观察组证候积分,术后第5、7天患肢肿胀程度,VAS评分,术后第3、7天血清白细胞及C反应蛋白水平均明显低于对照组(P<0.05),而术后第7天血清血红蛋白、红细胞压积水平和术后1个月Harris评分均显著高于对照组(P<0.05);两组不良反应发生率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:PFNA联合血府逐瘀汤内服治疗对老年股骨粗隆间骨折术后康复恢复效果确切,可显著减轻患肢肿胀程度,在更短时间内缓解患者局部疼痛,减少术后隐性失血,提升Harris评分,快速恢复髋关节功能,且不增加患者用药安全性风险。展开更多
提升降水量级预报精度,有助于优化灾害预警与决策支持。选取2018年1月1日至2021年1月山东省逐12 h降水观测数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心(the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting,ECMWF)的集合预报集合平均(Ensemble P...提升降水量级预报精度,有助于优化灾害预警与决策支持。选取2018年1月1日至2021年1月山东省逐12 h降水观测数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心(the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting,ECMWF)的集合预报集合平均(Ensemble Prediction Ensemble Mean,EPEM)结果进行72 h内逐12 h降水量级预报统计订正,然后对比ECMWF集合平均降水预报插值的原始预报(EC_EPEM)、基于EC_EPEM的输出统计(Model Output Statistics,MOS)预报(EC_EPEM_MOS)、利用最优TS(Threat Score)评分订正(Optimal Threat Score,OTS)预报(EC_EPEM_OTS)的效果。结果表明:EC_EPEM_MOS在较小量级上表现最优,但在大量级上订正效果稍差,甚至略低于EC_EPEM;EC_EPEM_OTS仅在0.1、10 mm量级上低于EC_EPEM_MOS,其他量级均为最优,尤其在较大量级上订正效果更明显。在50、100 mm大量级上,EC_EPEM_OTS在12~72 h时效订正效果均最优,这是由于EC_EPEM_OTS在稍大量级上提高订正系数使得大量级降水漏报率减小,同时对大量级降水使用较小订正系数也减小了空报率。在较小量级降水中短期预报时效除了山东中部山区外EC_EPEM_MOS表现最佳,山区EC_EPEM_OTS最佳;中等以上量级、尤其较大量级降水,山东大部分地区EC_EPEM_OTS表现最佳。EC_EPEM_MOS订正预报有效地减小了EC_EPEM的空报问题。EC_EPEM_OTS的订正效果最佳,在大范围强降雨过程中与实况降雨分布更为接近,降水总体分布把握较好。展开更多
文摘Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly optimal alternative. Aimed at solving these problems, this paper proposes a synthetical assessment process based on fuzzy hesitant linguistic term set and the Gained and Lost Dominance Score(GLDS) method. In order to improve the assessment accuracy of experts and solve the problem that experts generate different opinions, combined with the advantages of fuzzy hesitant sets and linguistic term sets, the double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets are used in this paper to improve the accuracy of expert’s judgement. In order to effectively combine expert’s experience with the data of criteria, the evidence theory and entropy weight method are used to transfer the expert’s judgement to the weight. In order to avoid selecting defective alternative of missile design, the GLDS is used to fuse expert information and criteria information. Sensitivity analysis shows that the assessment process has sensitivity to some extent. However, when the fluctuation of expert’s assessment makes the fluctuation of θ in the range of-5% to 5%, the impact on the results is not quite conspicuous. The analysis of calculation result and comparative analysis show that the assessment process proposed in this paper is accurate enough, has great advantage in selecting the current and potential optimal alternative of missile design, and avoids the alternatives with low criteria performance that cannot be compensated by other criteria being selected.
文摘Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for constructing parsimonious event risk scores combining a stepwise selection of variables with ensemble scores obtained by aggregation of several scores, using several classifiers, bootstrap samples and various modalities of random selection of variables. Selection methods based on a probabilistic model can be used to achieve a stepwise selection for a given classifier such as logistic regression, but not directly for an ensemble classifier constructed by aggregation of several classifiers. Three selection methods are proposed in this framework, two involving a backward selection of the variables based on their coefficients in an ensemble score and the third involving a forward selection of the variables maximizing the AUC. The stepwise selection allows constructing a succession of scores, with the practitioner able to choose which score best fits his needs. These three methods are compared in an application to construct parsimonious short-term event risk scores in chronic HF patients, using as event the composite endpoint of death or hospitalization for worsening HF within 180 days of a visit. Focusing on the fastest method, four scores are constructed, yielding out-of-bag AUCs ranging from 0.81 (26 variables) to 0.76 (2 variables).
文摘Clubfoot malformation is the most common serious congenital anomaly affecting the foot in children. Its treatment by the Ponseti method is simple, profitable and widely used in the world. Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the factors of the failure of its treatment by the Ponseti method. Material and Method: We carried out a retrospective and descriptive study of cases of congenital equinus clubfoot varus at the Reference Health Care Center of Commune III of Bamako over 26 months from September 2020 to November 2022. Data were treated with the utmost anonymity. Result: This study was performed on 44 children seen for clubfoot: male (68%) and female (32%), with a sex ratio of 2.1. We obtained 13 cases of recidivism including 7 boys and 6 girls. We found 21 cases of unilateral and 23 bilateral;among which 9 recurrences were found against 4 in the unilateral forms. 85% of recurrences did not have good adherence to the splint and 62% did not come regularly for follow-up consultation. We obtained 33 children with idiopathic clubfeet (75%) with a recurrence of 24%, and 7 children with secondary clubfeet with 71 % recurrence. There was no recurrence in the postural type. Among the recurrences, 38.5% started treatment between 1 and 6 months, 23.1% from 0 to 1 month and 15.4% at 2 years and more. 85% of recurrences had a Pirani score between 4.5 to 6 at the start of treatment and 15% at a score of 2.5 to 4. Conclusion: The factors of the failure of the Ponseti method are mainly non-compliance with treatment, secondary clubfeet, and a high Pirani score at the start of treatment.
文摘目的:基于倾向性评分匹配法探讨血府逐瘀汤对老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者PFNA术后康复的影响。方法:回顾性分析140例行防旋股骨近端髓内钉(proximal femoral nail antirotation,PFNA)手术治疗的股骨粗隆间骨折患者,使用SPSS 22.0进行倾向性匹配评分匹配分为观察组(血府逐瘀汤治疗)和对照组(常规支持治疗)各50例,比较两组术后相关康复治疗指标,并对两组用药安全性进行评价分析。结果:观察组证候积分,术后第5、7天患肢肿胀程度,VAS评分,术后第3、7天血清白细胞及C反应蛋白水平均明显低于对照组(P<0.05),而术后第7天血清血红蛋白、红细胞压积水平和术后1个月Harris评分均显著高于对照组(P<0.05);两组不良反应发生率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:PFNA联合血府逐瘀汤内服治疗对老年股骨粗隆间骨折术后康复恢复效果确切,可显著减轻患肢肿胀程度,在更短时间内缓解患者局部疼痛,减少术后隐性失血,提升Harris评分,快速恢复髋关节功能,且不增加患者用药安全性风险。
