Ocean mesoscale structure–induced air–sea interaction in a high-resolution coupled model

Using the Community Earth System Model framework, the authors build a very-high-resolution quasi-global coupled model by coupling an eddy-resolving quasi-global ocean model with a high-resolution atmospheric model. The model is successfully run for six years under present climate conditions, and the simulations are evaluated against observational and reanalysis data.The model is capable of simulating large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, sea surface temperature(SST) fronts, oceanic eddy kinetic energy, and fine-scale structures of surface winds. The ocean mesoscale structure–induced air–sea interaction characteristics are explored in detail. The model can effectively reproduce positive correlations between SST and surface wind stress induced by mesoscale structures through comparison with observations. The positive correlation is particularly significant over regions with strong oceanic fronts and eddies.However, the responses of wind stress to eddy-induced SST are weaker in the simulation than in the observations, although different magnitudes exist in different areas. Associated with weak wind responses, surface sensible heat flux responses to eddy-induced SST are underestimated slightly, while surface latent heat flux responses are overestimated because of the drier atmospheric boundary layers in the model. Both momentum mixing and pressure adjustment mechanisms play important roles in surface wind changes over oceanic fronts and eddies in the high-resolution model.

Does regional air–sea coupling improve the simulation of the summer monsoon over the western North Pacific in the WRF4 model?

A new regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model,WRF4-LICOM,was used to investigate the impacts of regional air–sea coupling on the simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM),with a focus on the normal WNPSM year 2005.Compared to WRF4,WRF4-LICOM improved the simulation of the summer mean monsoon rainfall,circulations,sea surface net heat fluxes,and propagations of the daily rainband over the WNP.The major differences between the models were found over the northern South China Sea and east of the Philippines.The warmer SST reduced the gross moist stability of the atmosphere and increased the upward latent heat flux,and then drove local ascending anomalies,which led to the increase of rainfall in WRF4-LICOM.The resultant enhanced atmospheric heating drove a low-level anomalous cyclone to its northwest,which reduced the simulated circulation biases in the stand-alone WRF4 model.The local observed daily SST over the WNP was a response to the overlying summer monsoon.In the WRF4 model,the modeled atmosphere exhibited passive response to the underlying daily SST anomalies.With the inclusion of regional air–sea coupling,the simulated daily SST–rainfall relationship was significantly improved.WRF4-LICOM is recommended for future dynamical downscaling of simulations and projections over this region.

A Possible Mechanism of the Impact of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction on the Activity of Tropical Cyclones Affecting China

In this study, tropical cyclone data from China Meteorological Administration （CMA） and the ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1958-2001 was used to propose a possible mechanism for the impacts of air- sea interaction on the activity of tropical cyclones （TCs） affecting China. The frequency of TCs affecting China over past 40 years has trended downward, while during the same period, the air sea interaction in the two key areas of the Pacific region has significantly weakened. Our diagnoses and simulations suggest that air sea interactions in the central North Pacific tropics and subtropics （Area 1） have an important role in adjusting typhoon activities in the Northwest Pacific in general, and especially in TC activity affecting China. On the contrary, impacts of the air-sea interaction in the eastern part of the South Pacific tropics （Area 2） were found to be rather limited. As both observational analysis and modeling studies show that, in the past four decades and beyond, the weakening trend of the latent heat released from Area 1 matched well with the decreasing Northwest Pacific TC frequency derived from CMA datasets. Results also showed that the weakening trend of latent heat flux in the area was most likely due to the decreasing TC frequency over the Northwest Pacific, including those affecting China. Although our preliminary analysis revealed a possible mechanism through which the air sea interaction may adjust the genesis conditions for TCs, which eventually affect China, other relevant questions, such as how TC tracks and impacts are affected by these trends, remain unanswered. Further in-depth investigations are required.

Impacts of Increased SST Resolution on the North Pacific Storm Track in ERA-Interim

This study examines the artificial influence of increasing the SST resolution on the storm track over the North Pacific in ERA-Interim.Along with the mesoscale oceanic eddies and fronts resolved during the high-resolution-SST period,the low-level storm track strengthens northward,reaching more than 30%of the maximum values in the low-resolution-SST period after removing the influence of ENSO.The mesoscale structure firstly imprints on the marine atmospheric boundary layer,which then leads to changes in turbulent heat flux and near-surface convergence,forcing a secondary circulation into the free atmosphere,strengthening the vertical eddy heat,momentum and specific humidity fluxes,and contributing to the enhancement of the storm track.Results from a high-resolution atmospheric model further indicate the changes in the storm track due to the mesoscale SST and their relationship.

Intermodel Diversity of Simulated Long-term Changes in the Austral Winter Southern Annular Mode:Role of the Southern Ocean Dipole

The Southern Annular Mode(SAM)plays an important role in regulating Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation.State-of-the-art models exhibit intermodel spread in simulating long-term changes in the SAM.Results from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)experiments from 28 models archived in CMIP5 show that the intermodel spread in the linear trend in the austral winter(June−July−August)SAM is significant,with an intermodel standard deviation of 0.28(10 yr)−1,larger than the multimodel ensemble mean of 0.18(10 yr)−1.This study explores potential factors underlying the model difference from the aspect of extratropical sea surface temperature(SST).Extratropical SST anomalies related to the SAM exhibit a dipole-like structure between middle and high latitudes,referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole(SOD).The role of SOD-like SST anomalies in influencing the SAM is found in the AMIP simulations.Model performance in simulating the SAM trend is linked with model skill in reflecting the SOD−SAM relationship.Models with stronger linkage between the SOD and the SAM tend to simulate a stronger SAM trend.The explained variance is about 40%in the AMIP runs.These results suggest improved simulation of the SOD−SAM relationship may help reproduce long-term changes in the SAM.

Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation

The variability in the Southern Ocean（SO） sea surface temperature（SST） has drawn increased attention due to its unique physical features; therefore, the temporal characteristics of the SO SST anomalies（SSTA） and their influence on extratropical atmospheric circulation are addressed in this study. Results from empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the principal mode of the SO SSTA exhibits a dipole-like structure, suggesting a negative correlation between the SSTA in the middle and high latitudes, which is referred to as the SO Dipole（SOD） in this study. The SOD features strong zonal symmetry, and could reflect more than 50% of total zonal-mean SSTA variability. We find that stronger（weaker） Subantarctic and Antarctic polar fronts are related to the positive（negative） phases of the SOD index, as well as the primary variability of the large-scale SO SSTA meridional gradient. During December–January–February, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet shift toward the Antarctic due to changes in the SSTA that could be associated with a positive phase of the SOD, and are also accompanied by a poleward shift of the subtropical jet. During June–July–August, in association with a positive SOD, the Ferrel cell and the polar jet are strengthened, accompanied by a strengthened subtropical jet. These seasonal differences are linked to the differences in the configuration of the polar jet and the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemisphere.

Prediction of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer without Strong ENSO Forcing

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) is one of the deterministic predictors of the East Asian summer climate, and a better prediction of the WNPSH favors more reasonable forecast of the East Asian summer climate. This study focuses on seasonal prediction of the WNPSH during neutral summers without strong El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forcing, and explores the associated predictable sources, using the one-month lead time retrospective forecasts from the Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project during 1960–2005. The results indicate that the ENSEMBLES atmosphere–ocean–land coupled models exhibit considerable prediction skill for the WNPSH during neutral summers, with successful reproduction of the WNPSH in the majority of neutral summers. The anomalous WNPSH in neutral summers, which corresponds to cyclonic/anticyclonic anomalies in the lower troposphere, is highly correlated with an east–west dipole local sea surface temperature(SST) distribution over the tropical WNP, suggesting an intimate local air–sea coupling. Further diagnosis of the local SST–rainfall relationship and surface heat flux indicates that the anomalous local SST plays an active role in modulating the variation of the WNPSH during neutral summers, rather than passively responding to the atmospheric change. The local SST anomalies and relevant air–sea coupling over the tropical WNP are reasonably well reproduced in the model predictions, and could act as primary predictable sources of the WNPSH in neutral summers. This could aid in forecasting of the East Asian rainband and associated disaster mitigation planning.

Lagged Responses of the Tropical Pacific to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing and Possible Mechanisms

This paper uses two subsets of ensemble historical-Nat simulations and pi-Control simulations from CMIP5 as well as observational/reanalysis datasets to investigate responses of the tropical Pacific to the 11-yr solar cycle.A statistically significant 11-yr solar signal is found in the upper-ocean layers above the thermocline and tropospheric circulations.A warming response initially appears in the upper layers of the central equatorial Pacific in the solar maximum years in observations,then increases and shifts into the eastern Pacific at lagged 1-3 yr.Meanwhile,an anomalous updraft arises over the western equatorial Pacific and shifts eastwards in the following years with anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent.These lagged responses are confirmed by the historical-Nat simulations,except that the initial signal is located more to the west and all the responses are weaker than the observed.A simplified mixed-layer heat budget analysis based on the historical-Nat simulations suggests that the atmospheric forcing,especially the shortwave radiation,is the major contributor to the initial warming response,and the ocean heat transport effect is responsible for the eastward displacement of the lagged warming responses.In the solar maximum years,the zonal ocean temperature gradient in the western-central Pacific is reduced by the initial warming,and anomalous westerly winds appear over the western equatorial Pacific and extend into the eastern Pacific during the lagged years.These anomalous westerly winds reduce the wind-driven ocean dynamical transport,resulting in the initial warming in the central equatorial Pacific being amplified and the surface warming shifting eastward during the lagged 1-3 yr.

Contribution of Winter SSTA in the Tropical Eastern Pacific to Changes of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Southeast China

Tropical cyclone precipitation(TCP)accounts for 10%-40%of the boreal summer precipitation that occurs over Southeast China(SEC),causing flood disasters and serious damage.On the decadal scale,TCP increases significantly in SEC while TC frequency decreases in the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1980-2019.Therefore,variations in TCP and the corresponding physical mechanism are investigated in this study.First,an empirical statistical method is introduced to quantify the TCP amount based on accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)and TC frequency with the TCP anomaly decomposed into three items(rainfall frequency,rainfall intensity,and nonlinear item).ACE,as the integration of TC intensity and frequency,is a more effective index than TC frequency for depicting the characteristics of TCP because the contribution of rainfall frequency represented by ACE is higher than that of TC frequency.Then,the physical mechanism affecting the WNP TC activities and TCP in SEC are inspected.Positive sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)over the tropical eastern Pacific(TEP)in winter can trigger variations of air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific,including low-level divergent winds,mid-tropospheric descent flows,high-level convergent winds coupled with negative anomalies of vorticity and humidity over the tropical western Pacific(TWP)in the next summer.These dynamic conditions provide unfavorable environments for TC activities in the WNP and constrain TCP in SEC.Furthermore,more significantly negative SSTA events in the TEP facilitate enhanced ACE along with positive relative vorticity,relative humidity,and upwelling vertical winds anomalies over the coast of SEC after 1998,which is a reasonable explanation for the increasing TCP in SEC.