Variational assimilation in combination with a regularization method for sea level pressure retrieval from QuikSCAT scatterometer data Ⅱ:simulation experiment and actual case study

The sea level pressure field can be computed from sea surface winds retrieved from satellite microwave scatterometer measurements, based on variational assimilation in combination with a regularization method given in part I of this paper. First, the validity of the new method is proved with a simulation experiment. Then, a new processing procedure for the sea level pressure retrieval is built by combining the geostrophic wind, which is computed from the scatterometer 10-meter wind using the University of Washington planetary boundary layer model using this method. Finally, the feasibility of the method is proved using an actual case study.

Variational assimilation in combination with the regularization method for sea level pressure retrieval from QuikSCAT scatterometer data I:Theoretical frame construction

A new method of constructing a sea level pressure field from satellite microwave scatterometer measurements is presented. It is based on variational assimilation in combination with a regularization method using geostrophic vorticity to construct a sea level pressure field from scatterometer data that are given in this paper, which offers a new idea for the application of scatterometer measurements. Firstly, the geostrophic vorticity from the scatterometer data is computed to construct the observation field, and the vorticity field in an area and the sea level pressure on the borders are assimilated. Secondly, the gradient of sea level pressure （semi-norm） is used as the stable functional to educe the adjoint system, the adjoint boundary condition and the gradient of the cost functional in which a weight parameter is introduced for the harmony of the system and the Tikhonov regularization techniques in inverse problem are used to overcome the ill-posedness of the assimilation. Finally, the iteration method of the sea level pressure field is developed.

A cautionary note on decadal sea level pressure predictions from GCMs

A comparison of sea level pressure(SLP)trends in a subset of seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)phase 5 general circulation models(GCM),namely decadal simulations with CCSM4,CanCM4,MPI-ESM-LR,FGOALS-g2,MIROC4h,MIROC5,and MRICGCM3,to their CMIP3 counterparts reveals an unrealistically strong forecast skill in CMIP3 models for trend predictions for 2001e2011 when using the 1979e2000 period to train the forecast.Boreal-winter SLP trends over five high-,mid-,and low-latitude zones were calculated over the 1979e2000 initialization period for each ensemble member and then ranked based on their performance relative to HadSLP2 observations.The same method is used to rank the ensemble members during the 2001e2011 period.In CMIP3,17 out of 38 ensemble members retain their rank in the 2001e2011 hindcast period and 3 retain the neighboring rank.However,numbers are much lower in more recent CMIP5 decadal predictions over the similar 2001e2010 period when using the 1981e2000 period as initialization with the same number of ensembles.Different periods were used for CMIP3 and CMIP5 because although the 1979e2000 initialization is widely used for CMIP3,CMIP5 decadal predictions are only available for 30-year periods.The conclusion to consider the forecast skill in CMIP3 predictions during 2001e2011 as unrealistic is corroborated by comparisons to earlier periods from the 1960s to the 1980s in both CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations.Thus,although the 2001e2011 CMIP3 predictions show statistically significant forecast skill,this skill should be treated as a spurious result that is unlikely to be reproduced by newer more accurate GCMs.

Impacts of Initial Perturbations on 24-h Sea-Level Pressure Predictions Near Typhoon Matsa

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty in initial conditions on 24-h sea-level pressure predictions near 0509 Typhoon Matsa by using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP).The CNOP is calculated by using a newly proposed fast algorithm.The model used is the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES).The sensitivity of the 24-h predictions is studied in terms of horizontal and vertical ranges and also in terms of different initial state variables.To study the sensitivity of 24-h sea-level pressure predictions to different initial state variables,four functions are given as metrics to find the sensitive initial locations.The results show that the main prediction errors come from initial uncertainty on the levels below 200 hPa and at the region south of about 37.6°N,with more sensitivity to initial winds than to other initial state variables.

Influence of Sea Level Pressure on Inter-Annual Rainfall Variability in Northern Senegal in the Context of Climate Change

This study examines the inter-annual variability of rainfall and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) over west Africa based on analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis respectively. An interconnection is found in this region, between Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly (over Azores and St. Helena High) and monthly mean precipitation during summer (June to September: JJAS). We also found that over northern Senegal (15°N - 17°N;17°W - 13°W) the SLP to the north is strong;the wind converges at 200 hPa corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) the rotational wind 700 hPa (corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) coming from the north-east is negative. In this region, the precipitation is related to the SLP to the north with the opposite sign. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of SLP is also presented, including the mean spectrum of precipitation and pressures to the north (15°N - 40°N and 50°W - 25°W) and south (40°S - 10°S and 40°W - 0°E). The dominant EOF of Sea Level Pressures north and south of the Atlantic Ocean for GPCP represents about 62.2% and 69.4% of the variance, respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the north account for 24.0% and 6.5% respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the south represent 12.5% and 8.9% respectively. Wet years in the north of Senegal were associated with anomalous low-pressure areas over the north Atlantic Ocean as opposed to the dry years which exhibited an anomalous high-pressure area in the same region. On the other hand, over the South Atlantic, an opposition is noted. The wavelet analysis method is applied to the SLP showings to the north, south and precipitation in our study area. The indices prove to be very consistent, especially during intervals of high variance.

Causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea

Based on the analysis of sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature（SST）, air pressure and wind data during 1980-2013, the causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea（ECS） are investigated. The research results show：（1） sea level along the coastal region of the ECS takes on strong seasonal variation. The annual range is 30-45 cm, larger in the north than in the south. From north to south, the phase of sea level changes from 140° to 231°, with a difference of nearly 3 months.（2） Monthly mean sea level（MSL）anomalies often occur from August to next February along the coast region of the ECS. The number of sea level anomalies is at most from January to February and from August to October, showing a growing trend in recent years.（3） Anomalous wind field is an important factor to affect the sea level variation in the coastal region of the ECS. Monthly MSL anomaly is closely related to wind field anomaly and air pressure field anomaly. Wind-driven current is essentially consistent with sea surface height. In August 2012, the sea surface heights at the coastal stations driven by wind field have contributed 50%-80% of MSL anomalies.（4） The annual variations for sea level,SST and air temperature along the coastal region of the ECS are mainly caused by solar radiation with a period of12 months. But the correlation coefficients of sea level anomalies with SST anomalies and air temperature anomalies are all less than 0.1.（5） Seasonal sea level variations contain the long-term trends and all kinds of periodic changes. Sea level oscillations vary in different seasons in the coastal region of the ECS. In winter and spring, the oscillation of 4-7 a related to El Ni？o is stronger and its amplitude exceeds 2 cm. In summer and autumn, the oscillations of 2-3 a and quasi 9 a are most significant, and their amplitudes also exceed 2 cm. The height of sea level is lifted up when the different oscillations superposed. On the other hand, the height of sea level is fallen down.

Characteristics and possible causes of the seasonal sea level anomaly along the South China Sea coast

Based on sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature（SST）, air pressure and wind data during 1980–2014,this paper uses Morlet wavelet transform, Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model（ECOM） and so on to investigate the characteristics and possible causes of seasonal sea level anomalies along the South China Sea（SCS） coast. The research results show that：（1） Seasonal sea level anomalies often occur from January to February and from June to October. The frequency of sea level anomalies is the most in August, showing a growing trend in recent years. In addition, the occurring frequency of negative sea level anomaly accounts for 50% of the total abnormal number.（2） The seasonal sea level anomalies are closely related to ENSO events. The negative anomalies always occurred during the El Ni？o events, while the positive anomalies occurred during the La Ni？a（late El Ni？o） events. In addition, the seasonal sea level oscillation periods of 4–7 a associated with ENSO are the strongest in winter, with the amplitude over 2 cm.（3） Abnormal wind is an important factor to affect the seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the SCS. Wind-driven sea level height（SSH） is basically consistent with the seasonal sea level anomalies. Moreover, the influence of the tropical cyclone in the coastal region of the SCS is concentrated in summer and autumn, contributing to the seasonal sea level anomalies.（4） Seasonal variations of sea level, SST and air temperature are basically consistent along the coast of the SCS, but the seasonal sea level anomalies have no much correlation with the SST and air temperature.

Impact of Seasonal Low on Sea Level Rise

Every region around the globe has its unique climatic conditions which are set based on different orographic constant and atmospheric dynamic features. These features posses’ variability on different time scales. Determining the local sea level change based on terrestrial non-tidal, short-term variability is complicated. Some internal mechanisms of ocean are also taking place along with the external physical ones. We show that variability at Sindh-Baluchistan coastal belt can be greatly explained via dimensional indices of the position and intensity of the atmospheric center of action (COAs). This technique has already proved its usefulness at number of location especially in Northern Atlantic. It takes into account the changes in the atmospheric pressure which is exerted on the sea surface influencing the variability in sea level on seasonal scale and on inter-annual basis. As warming causes thermal expansion of water it also causes changes in atmospheric circulation. Both of these processes affect the sea level variability on their respective time scales. Atmospheric being the quicker one of the two to pass on the effect is also more influential to explain the variability in local sea level. In this attempt the COA approach is used to assess the impact of low pressure on local sea levels.

Characteristics of extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere and their response to rapid changes in Arctic sea ice

Extratropical cyclones are critical weather systems that affect large-scale weather and climate changes at mid-high latitudes.However,prior research shows that there are still great difficulties in predicting extratropical cyclones for occurrence,frequency,and position.In this study,mean sea level pressure(MSLP)data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)reanalysis(ERA5)are used to calculate the variance statistics of the MSLP to reveal extratropical cyclone activity(ECA).Based on the analysis of the change characteristics of ECA in the Northern Hemisphere,the intrinsic link between ECA in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice is explored.The results show that the maximum ECA mainly occurs in winter over the mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.The maximum ECA changes in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic,which are the largest variations in the Northern Hemisphere,are independent of each other,and their mechanisms may be different.Furthermore,MSLP is a significant physical variable that affects ECA.The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and North Pacific Index(NPI)are significant indices that impact ECA in the North Atlantic and North Pacific,respectively.The innovation of this paper is to explore the relationship between the activity of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and the abnormal changes in Arctic sea ice for the first time.The mechanism is that the abnormal changes in summer-autumn and winter Arctic sea ice lead to the phase transition of the NPI and NAO,respectively,and then cause the occurrence of ECA in the North Pacific and North Atlantic,respectively.Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in the ECA in the Northern Hemisphere by influencing the polar vortex and westerly jets.This is the first exploration of ECAs in the Northern Hemisphere using Arctic sea ice,which can provide some references for the in-depth study and prediction of ECAs in the Northern Hemisphere.

南极宇航员海夏季水文结构变化特征研究

本文基于中国南极考察(CHINARE37-38)在宇航员海获取的海洋综合站位观测数据,结合海冰密集度、WOA23和ERA5再分析资料等,分析了该海域主要水文结构及其变化特征。结果表明:宇航员海夏季水团包括南极表层水(分为夏季表层水与冬季残留水)、绕极深层水、变性绕极深层水和南极底层水。夏季表层水均分布在表层50 m深度以浅,呈现出南冷北暖的趋势。66°S以南的冬季残留水最厚,最深可达200 m左右。绕极深层水向南侵入的趋势明显,CHINARE-38绕极深层水向上涌升的高度较CHINARE-37高出10~20 m。夏季表层水的高温高盐核心位于中心海域无冰区,因为无冰海域的表层海水长时间接收太阳短波辐射而温度较高。近岸海域因冰融水导致局部夏季表层水降温淡化。宇航员海中心海域海面风场维持低气压气旋式环流,次表层水体通过Ekman抽吸上升冷却表层暖水,导致表层与次表层水体混合加强,绕极深层水向南侵入并向上涌升。

A Preliminary Study on the Relationship Between Arctic Oscillation and Daily SLP Variance in the Northern Hemisphere During Wintertime

In the present study, the authors investigated the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the high-frequency variability of daily sea level pressures in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (November through March), using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the time period of 1948/49-2000/01. High-frequency signals are defined as those with timescales shorter than three weeks and measured in terms of variance, for each winter for each grid. The correlations between monthly mean AO index and high-frequency variance are conducted. A predominant feature is that several regional centers with high correlation show up in the middle to high latitudes. Significant areas include mid- to high-latitude Asia centered at Siberia, northern Europe and the middle-latitude North Atlantic east of northern Africa. Their strong correlations can also be confirmed by the singular value decomposition analysis of covariance between mean SLP and high-frequency variance. This indicates that the relationship of AO with daily Sea Level Pressure (SLP) is confined to some specific regions in association with the inherent atmospheric dynamics. In middle-latitude Asia, there is a significant (at the 95% level) trend of variance of-2.26% (10 yr)-1. Another region that displays a strong trend is the northwestern Pacific with a significant rate of change of 0.80% (10 yr)-1. If the winter of 1948/49, an apparent outlier, is excluded, a steady linear trend of +1.51% (10 yr)-1 shows up in northern Europe. The variance probability density functions (PDFs) are found to change in association with different AO phases. The changes corresponding to high and low AO phases, however, are asymmetric in these regions. Some regions such as northern Europe display much stronger changes in high AO years, whereas some other regions such as Siberia show a stronger connection to low AO conditions. These features are supported by ECMWF reanalysis data. However, the dynamical mechanisms involved in the AO-high frequency SLP variance connection have not been well understood, and this needs further study.

NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC SUMMER CLIMATIC JUMP IN THE 1960s (Ⅱ)——SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND 500 hPa HEIGHT

The paper is to depict the major structures of the Northern Hemispheric summer sealevel pressure (SLP), 500 hPa height (H 500) and 500 hPa ridge-and-trough (RAT) field during1951-1980. The 1960s’ jump was found in the major signal of each field as well as inthe series of many circulation parameters. The major part of the H 500 change was the heightlowering over the most of the Hemisphere during the 1960s, corresponding well to the sur-face temperature change. The SLP and RAT changed in a way similar to that of the rainfallchange, with regard to the southwest-to-northeast zonal structure in the geographical distri-butions of the major signals of all the three fields. The relationship between the changes ofsome circulation parameters and the regional rainfall is discussed.

VARIATIONS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEANS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON COLD SUMMER IN EAST ASIA

An EOF analysis was performed to investigate the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) of Pacific and Indian Oceans.Result shows that the distribution of SST anomaly exhibits a distinct anticorrelation pattern between Northwest and Southeast Pacific,as well as between Northwest Pacific and the Arabian Sea.It also shows that the sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly between North Pacific and North Indian Oceans is of a seesaw pattern,which we named the North Paci- fic and North Indian Ocean Oscillation (PIO).Such a phenomenon is closely correlated with the cold summer in East Asia.

SPATIAL VARIATION OF WINTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS RELATION TO ATMOSPHERIC OSCILLATION MODES

The spatial variation of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the North Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated using the EOF decomposition method.The first two main modes of SSTA are associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) mode and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO) mode,respectively.Moreover,the first mode(PDO) is switched to the second mode(NPGO),a dominant mode after mid-1980.The mechanism of the modes' transition is analyzed.As the two oceanic modes are forced by the Aleutian Low(AL) and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO) modes,the AR-1 model is further used to examine the possible effect and mechanism of AL and NPO in generating the PDO and NPGO.The results show that compared to the NPO,the AL plays a more important role in generating the NPGO mode since the 1970s.Likewise,both the AL and NPO affect the PDO mode since the 1980s.

Role of sea level pressure in variations of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago throughflow

The throughflow in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago(CAA)had a significant impact on the North Atlantic Ocean with the Arctic climate change.The findings of physical mechanisms driving the throughflow in the CAA differed and few studies about the impact of sea level pressure(SLP)on the CAA throughflow were made.A high-resolution ice-ocean coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model(AO-FVCOM)was used over the period 1978-2016 to examine the interannual and seasonal variability of the outflows in the CAA and the mechanism of SLP in driving the variation of the CAA throughflow quantitively.The simulated volume transport through Davis Strait,Nares Strait,Lancaster Sound and Jones Sound showed consistent increasing trends over 1978-2016 and the larger flux in winter and spring than in summer and fall.The variation of volume transport through Nares Strait contributed more than Lancaster and Jones Sound to the variation through Davis Strait.Five process-oriented experiments were made to further explore the role of SLP in setting up and controlling the sea surface height(SSH)difference and thus the throughflow transport in the CAA.The SLP was a primary forcing to control the SSH difference and the outflow transport compared with the wind forcing.The memory of the SSH to the SLP was short and an equilibrium state could be reached if the SLP varied with time.The upstream and downstream SLP difference,however,made a slight direct contribution to driving the volume transport of the CAA throughflow.In addition to the external forcing of SLP and wind,the variability of the CAA outflow was also influenced by the variability of the inflow/outflow and SSH on boundaries connected to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.The choice of SLP datasets from CORE-v2,ECMWF and NCEP was sensitive to the simulated uncertainty of volume transport.

云南夏秋连续干旱事件及前期海平面气压异常信号

近十多年来云南地区多次发生极端的季节性连续干旱,尤其是夏季、秋季的连续干旱会加重传统冬、春季节干旱的危害,给当地经济和社会活动造成了严重的影响。本文基于1970~2019年云南省气象局120站降水数据及NCEP海平面气压场数据,从降水持续性异常指数出发,分析了云南夏、秋季节连续干旱事件发生的演变特征,进而探究了该区域夏秋连续干旱事件与前期4月海平面气压的可能联系,以期能够在极端干旱的预报中提供帮助。研究结果表明:(1)云南夏秋降水持续性异常的主要特征为全省一致的偏多或偏少;(2)云南夏秋连续干旱事件发生前期表现为3个区域海平面气压异常的组合,分别为北大西洋、北印度洋和中太平洋海平面气压异常;(3)由前期4月上述关键信号构建的组合信号指数,能够较好地表征云南夏季、秋季的降水连续异常,是具有意义的潜在前期预报信号。

Assessment of Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Based on Buoy Observations over the Tropical Western Indian Ocean in 2019

Atmospheric reanalysis data are an important data source for studying weather and climate systems.The sea surface wind and sea level pressure observations measured from a real-time buoy system deployed in Kenya’s offshore area in 2019 conducted jointly by Chinese and Kenyan scientists were used to evaluate the performance of the major high-frequency atmospheric reanalysis products in the western Indian Ocean region.Compared with observations,the sea level pressure field could be accurately simulated using the atmospheric reanalysis data.However,significant discrepancies existed between the surface wind reanalysis data,especially between meridional wind and the observational data.Most of the data provide a complete understanding of sea level pressure,except for the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data,which hold a significant system bias.The Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications,Version-2,provides an improved description of all datasets.All the reanalysis datasets for zonal wind underestimate the strength during the study period.Among reanalysis data,NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project reanalysis data presents an inaccurate description due to the worst correlation with the observations.For meridional wind,most reanalysis datasets underestimate the variance,while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Composition Reanalysis 4 has a larger variance than the observations.In addition to the original data comparison,the diurnal variability of sea level pressure and surface wind are also assessed,and the result indicates that the diurnal variations have a significant gap between observation and reanalysis data.This study indicates that the current high-frequency reanalysis data still have disadvantages when describing the atmospheric parameters in the Western Indian Ocean region.

新型通海阀流噪声的数值模拟对比研究

角式双球阀作为一种新型通海阀,针对其内部流道结构在不同流速下产生的噪声问题,基于计算流体动力学(CFD)与直接边界元法(BEM)对其进行流噪声数值模拟研究,分析2种不同结构形状角式双球阀的流噪声声压级以及其不同流速下的流噪声变化规律。结果表明,2种结构声压级均随频率的升高而降低,低流速时,双球阀低频特性更明显;开放式流道结构流噪声声压级明显高于封闭流道结构,由于封闭流道结构内部流体较好的流通性,其噪声总声压较开放式结构下降约26.9%,降幅为17 dB(A),封闭结构设计可以有效降低通海阀内流道流体脉动压力与流噪声,从而为新型通海阀的降噪优化提供一种新思路。

Case Study of Coastal Fog Events in Senegal Using LIDAR Ceilometer

This study aims to examine the atmospheric conditions characterising fog phenomena on the Senegalese coast focusing on two specific instances that occurred on April 3 and April 30,2023.These events were detected by the LIDAR Ceilometer installed at LPAOSF/ESP/UCAD and confirmed on the METARs of the meteorological stations at Dakar and Diass airports.The LIDAR’s backscatter signal showed that the fog of April 3 started around midnight with a vertical extension at 100 m altitude and dissipated around 10 a.m.The April 30 event characterized by a good vertical extension from the surface up to 300 m above sea level,was triggered just after 2 a.m.and lasted around 3 hours.The results showed that a decrease in temperature,accompanied by an increase in humidity and light wind,is favorable for the triggering and persistence of fog.Sea Level Pressure(SLP)anomaly fields show two distinct configurations.The April 3 event was characterized by a zonal dipole of SLP anomalies between the Sahara and the northern Senegalese coast,while the April 30 event was characterized by a meridional dipole between the Sahara and the Gulf of Guinea area as far as the equatorial Atlantic.A weakening of the pressure around the study area was observed in both cases,allowing moisture advection to favor the onset of fog.The hovmoller diagrams of relative humidity and wind show that a good vertical extension of humidity associated with a westerly wind in the lower layers plays an important role in the formation and persistence of fog.The presence of dry air associated with a weak easterly wind in the middle layers could explain the low vertical extension of the fog on April 3.A strong wind in the lower layers would be responsible for the premature dissipation of the April 30 fog.

SRES A2情景下中国气候未来变化的多模式集合预测结果

采用政府间气候变化委员会资料中心的模式预测结果 ,本文分析了SRESA2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下中国大陆 2 1世纪前 30年的 10年际气候变化趋势 .研究揭示 :大陆冬季和夏季表面温度、表面最高温度和最低温度分别升高 0 .3～ 2 .3℃、0 .1～ 2 .0℃、0 .5～ 2 .7℃ ,增幅大体上呈现东西向带状分布 ,由南至北升温逐渐加强 ,且增幅随时间加大 .此外 ,上述三气候要素冬季升温幅度要大于同期夏季、表面最低温度升幅要强于同期表面最高温度 ,冬季和夏季表面温度的季节内变化范围减小 .冬季东亚地区海平面气压异常幅度在 - 1.0hPa至 0 .4hPa之间变化 ,呈东西向带状分布 ,表现为南正北负、随时间推进异常幅度有所加大 ,正负交界面向南扩展 ;同时 ,东北、华北和西部海平面气压负异常较大 .夏季海平面气压异常空间分布与冬季相似 .2 0 0 1～ 2 0 30年 ,青藏高原大部、大陆东南部和河套大部分地区降水量增加 0 .1～ 0 .8mm/d .