Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large u...Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.展开更多
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest potential contributors to global sea level rise(GSLR),amounting to more than 64 m of sea level equivalence(SLE).Between the two,Greenland Ice Sheet(GrIS)alone compris...Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest potential contributors to global sea level rise(GSLR),amounting to more than 64 m of sea level equivalence(SLE).Between the two,Greenland Ice Sheet(GrIS)alone comprises about 7 mSLE,with a much faster speed of ablation than the Antarctic Ice Sheet.展开更多
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB950102 and 2009CB421406)the Nansen Scientific Society(Norway)part of the SeaLev projects at the Centre of Climate Dynamics/Bjerknes Center in Bergen
文摘Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.
基金supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant no.2018YFC1406100)International Cooperation Project by Geography Faculty of Beijing Normal University (Grant no.2022-GJTD-01)。
文摘Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest potential contributors to global sea level rise(GSLR),amounting to more than 64 m of sea level equivalence(SLE).Between the two,Greenland Ice Sheet(GrIS)alone comprises about 7 mSLE,with a much faster speed of ablation than the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
