Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China:2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.

Response of the Dominant Modes of Atmospheric Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere to a Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in 2007

This study revisits the Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) for the extended period of 1979-2015 based on satellite measurements and finds that the Arctic SIE experienced three different periods: a moderate sea ice decline period for 1979-1996, an accelerated sea ice decline period from 1997 to 2006, and large interannual variation period after 2007, when Arctic sea ice reached its tipping point reported by Livina and Lenton(2013). To address the response of atmospheric circulation to the lowest sea ice conditions with a large interannual variation, we investigated the dominant modes for large atmospheric circulation responses to the projected 2007 Arctic sea ice loss using an atmospheric general circulation model(ECHAM5). The response was obtained from two 50-yr simulations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice concentration for the period of 1979-1996 and one with that of sea ice conditions in 2007. The results suggest more occurrences of a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO) response to the 2007 Arctic sea ice conditions, accompanied by an North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-type atmospheric circulation response under the largest sea ice loss, and more occurrences of the positive Arctic Dipole(AD) mode under the 2007 sea ice conditions, with an across-Arctic wave train pattern response to the largest sea ice loss in the Arctic. This study offers a new perspective for addressing the response of atmospheric circulation to sea ice changes after the Arctic reached the tipping point in 2007.

基于SEA的镁质前围板与车内声场耦合优化分析

鉴于板件结构声辐射数值仿真研究中,有限元法和边界元法不适用于中、高频段的问题,采用统计能量分析方法将某汽车前围板的有限元模型划分成22个子系统,通过理论计算与试验相结合的方法获得了子系统模态密度、内损耗因子和耦合损耗因子等统计能量分析基本参数。同时,计算了前围板的声传递损失,并与相应的性能试验结果对比,从而使该模型可用于后续计算并保证声学优化的可靠性。最后,将原模型的单层镁板改为多层复合板,不仅降低了前围板的质量与成本,而且改善了驾驶室的声学环境。

复杂系统振动能量平衡方程中 SEA 参数的测定

本文讨论了利用功率射入法解决由实验测定结构内部损失参数和耦合损失参数的问题，研究了确定ＳＥＡ能量平衡方程系数矩阵的方法，提出一种简便实用的由理论结合实验确定子系统能量和等效质量的方法，并由此计算能量平衡系统内部损失参数和耦合损失参数。文中还导出了在结构响应频带内存在模态密集和拍振现象时，分析测定系统平衡能量和计算能量损失参数的方法。并在内燃机的部分零部件上进行了结构能量平衡参数和等效质量的对比实验，取得了理想的结果。

基于混合FE-SEA方法的围板类薄壁件中频声传递损失研究

构建了一种混合FE-SEA模型对典型围板类薄壁件的中频段的声传递损失进行预测,并将仿真结果与试验结果进行对比,验证了仿真模型的正确性。基于该仿真模型,对某围板类零件在中频段的声传递损失进行了预测,根据对比分析围板上划分的12个子面板的传递损失,得出了对整体传递损失影响最大的区域,并在此区域施加不同的声学包装,以达到优化声学包装施加区域的目的。

基于FE-SEA混合法的汽车镁合金前围板隔声量数值计算

为研究中频域的结构噪声,采用有限元-统计能量分析(FE-SEA)混合法对汽车板件的隔声性能进行了研究,该方法具备适用于低频域的有限元或边界元法和适用于高频域的统计能量分析的优点.结合混合法理论,建立克莱斯勒Viper跑车镁合金压铸前围板的混合模型,验证该方法应用于汽车车身薄壁件中低频隔声量计算的可行性.对混合模型的入射侧施加混响声场(DAF)作为声激励,在透射侧施加半自由声场(SIF)作为功率接收器,由数值计算结果得到前围板中低频率范围内的隔声量曲线,与试验结果对比,表明两者结果基本吻合,从而很好地证明了有限元-统计能量混合法用于解决本模型的中频声学问题的可行性.介绍了区域声学包装法,即在隔声量曲线低谷频率范围(100～500Hz)内,将简易声学包装施加到结构表面振动速度较大处,可以有效地优化前围板的总体隔声性能.

基于SEA法快速优化设计镁质复合前围板

建立了包含27个子系统的前围板SEA(statistical energy analysis)法模型,通过理论计算确定了进行SEA分析所需的基本参数.求解隔声量并与试验结果对比,其吻合良好,验证了SEA法用来计算镁质前围板在高频段隔声量的有效性.根据各个子系统的声透射曲线可知,在高频段,有必要对前围板整个模型而非局部进行声学优化.据此优化设计了一种复合前围板.为了更加客观地评价其优化效果,提出用降噪效率作为前围板声学优化的一个综合评价指标.通过改变多孔吸声层和空气层的厚度,综合考虑降噪效率、车内空间的限制、轻量化和成本的要求,确定其最优方案的空气层为1,mm,多孔吸声层为10,mm.声学优化后的前围板较优化前隔声量平均提高了20.2,d B,这对工程实际应用具有十分重要的意义.

基于混合FE-SEA法的镁质油底壳隔声数值优化

用混合FE-SEA法分析相同厚度的钢、铝合金和镁合金三种材质油底壳的隔声量,综合考虑轻量化和降噪的要求,提出降噪效率的概念,将其作为评价指标,结果显示镁质油底壳的综合性能最为优越。为了更进一步改善镁质油底壳的隔声效果,对隔声低谷处的模态贡献量进行分析,找出隔声低谷的关键参与模态。通过调取该频率处的速度振型,识别出油底壳上严重振动区域,在此区域内表面添加加强筋,有效地抑制了振动,同时低谷处的隔声也得到明显的改善。

基于FE-SEA混合法的空心阻振质量阻振性能研究

阐述了FE-SEA混合法的基本原理,分别采用FEM、SEA和FE-SEA混合法对带阻振质量薄板结构的振动速度进行预测。通过设计带近似等质量的空心梁与实心梁阻振质量的薄板结构模型实验,对上述三种方法的预测结果进行了验证。通过定义特征尺寸与波长的比值△,找到了各自的控制频域。结果表明:采用Δ作为划分上述三种方法有效频域的指标是可行的;在分析频率8 kHz范围内,空心阻振质量比实心阻振质量的整体阻振效果提高了10 dB左右;尤其是在中高频区的阻振效果更加明显,但在100 Hz以下的低频区阻振效果不如实心阻振质量的好。说明空心阻振质量比实心阻振质量具有更好的应用前景。

基于二维等效FE-SEA混合方法的复合材料层合板传声损失分析

为研究湍流脉动噪声激励下复合材料层合板的传声特性,首先基于一般层合板理论将复合材料层合板等效为单层各向异性板,进而采用FE-SEA混合方法研究其传声损失。同时开展复合材料层合板传声损失试验,并将FE-SEA结果和统计能量法(SEA)结果以及实验值进行对比分析。研究结果表明:FE-SEA结果和实验值整体上分布趋势一致,而且误差也相对较小,其中3000 Hz^10000 Hz误差在2 dB以内,但由于刚度等效导致2000 Hz附近结果误差相对较大。相较于SEA方法,FE-SEA混合方法综合考虑了复合材料层合板边界条件和详细得几何特征,不仅可以准确地计算复合材料层合板的固有特性,而且使得传声损失结果在全频带内与试验值吻合得更好。因此建立的二维等效FE-SEA混合模型可以准确预示复合材料层合板在湍流脉动噪声激励下的传声损失。

基于田口质量损失函数的SEA模型研究

介绍一种通过适当试验设计,运用试验结果数据近似模拟产品性能指标的均值模型和方差模型的双响应曲面建模方法(DRSM),将田口质量损失函数模型和容差—成本函数模型综合考虑,即提出一种基于田口质量损失函数的SEA模型设计方法,可以提高质量系统稳健性及其优化效率。最后通过实例证明该方法的有效性。

Investigation on global positioning system signal scattering and propagation over the rough sea surface

This paper is devoted to the study of polarization properties, scattering properties and propagation properties of global positioning system （GPS） scattering signal over the rough sea surface. To investigate the polarization and the scattering properties, the scattering field and the bistatic scattering coefficient of modified Kirchhoff approximation using the tapered incident wave is derived in detail. In modeling the propagation properties of the GPS scattering signal in the evaporation duct, the initial field of parabolic equation traditionally computed by the antenna pattern using fast Fourier transform （FFT） is replaced by the GPS scattering field. And the propagation properties of the GPS scattering signal in the evaporation duct with different evaporation duct heights and elevation angles of GPS are discussed by the improved discrete mixed Fourier transform taking into account the sea surface roughness.

基于SEA模型的整车声学包优化研究

基于统计能量理论,以某SUV车型为研究对象,建立了整车SEA模型,通过面连接的方式加载前围和地板的隔声测试数据,并基于SPL测试和PBNR测试对整车模型进行对标调校,保证了模型优化分析的精确性。针对与目标车传递路径隔声量的差距,通过传递路径贡献量分析,明确了整车声学包的薄弱路径以及贡献量最大的关键子系统,从密度、覆盖率等方面对声学包材料进行优化,使整车的传递路径隔声量提升2~6 dB,并达到了目标车水准。结果表明,采用SEA方法对整车声学包进行优化仿真能明显改善整车噪声水平,为后续声学包设计提供指导和方向。

FORECAST OF IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THELOW COLONIZED ISLANDS AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MOUTH

As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.

The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings.The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

周期阻尼结构在驾驶室降噪铝钢板隔声特性上的应用

针对驾驶室降噪用大块阻尼铺设的缺陷,提出了二周阻尼铝-钢板敷设方式,通过建立周期阻尼结构振动数学模型,仿真计算研究了周期阻尼结构模态分析,并分析了铝-钢板密度、阻尼块密度和形状三个主要参数对隔声量的影响,最后对比周期阻尼和大块阻尼隔声效果。结果表明:模态振幅减小的变化趋势随着频率的增大越来越明显,说明具有周期阻尼的更有利于降低铝-钢板结构的振动;隔声效果随着铝-钢板密度和阻尼块密度的增加而增大,在250~1000 Hz的中高频段,隔声量增加得更为明显。

The Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon over Northeast Asia over the Most Recent Two Decades

The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train.Sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its amplification.Somewhat independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far East.This anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in advance.The stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture transport.Therefore,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.

黑潮流套脱落反气旋涡对声传播的影响研究

黑潮在冬季常以流套的方式入侵南海,并多伴随着反气旋涡的脱落,脱落的反气旋涡将黑潮高温、高盐水带入南海,影响南海东北部水文要素和声速场的空间分布,目前尚未有对黑潮流套脱落反气旋涡声学效应的研究。利用2009~2020年卫星高度计数据和再分析数据,在南海东北部选取了6个冬季黑潮流套脱落反气旋涡,研究了其水文和声场结构,并应用Bellhop高斯射线模型仿真给出了其对声传播的影响。结果表明:(1)6个黑潮脱落反气旋涡平均半径为110~135km,垂向深度可达1000~1200 m,最大旋转速度为0.4~0.6 m/s。反气旋涡中心暖水下沉,温度异常均为正异常,暖核位置位于100~250 m处,最大正异常达到2.5℃。中心盐度异常呈现负-正-负的三核结构。反气旋涡在100~900 m深度声速为正异常,最大正异常超过8 m/s,出现在400 m左右。(2)声波从涡外穿过涡旋和从涡内向外传播,当地形不会影响声线的反转时,会聚区的位置发生后移,后移的距离在5~10 km;当地形阻碍声线的反转时,声线与地形接触的位置不同,会聚区可能出现前移或后移,后移最大为29km,前移最大可达23km。(3)当声源深度和接收深度都为300m时,涡旋引起的声传播损失相比与无涡环境下最大增加10~15dB,同时地形与海底的反射也会使得声传播损失增大5~10dB。本文研究结果对南海东北部深海通信、远程探测、舰艇侦察与反侦察等具有一定意义。

基于多任务学习的近岸舰船检测方法

在遥感光学图像近岸舰船目标检测任务中,针对近岸复杂场景中存在形状近似目标的虚警问题,提出一种基于多任务学习的近岸舰船目标检测方法。该方法通过构建海陆分割任务与舰船检测任务并行双路框架,将传统的任务串行处理流程优化为并行处理方式,设计联合损失函数进行双路优化训练约束,提升模型训练的稳定性,通过双分支融合模块剔除陆地掩膜中的检测结果,实现陆地虚警滤除。采用谷歌地球遥感图像制作的数据集进行实验,将本文提出的方法与单任务检测算法YOLOv5相比,mAP提升了4.4个百分点,虚警率降低了3.4个百分点。实验结果表明本文算法对陆地虚警抑制有效。