The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation Events in East Africa during the Short Rainy Season and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

The East African short rainy season (October-November-December) is one of the major flood seasons in the East African region. The amount of rainfall during the short rainy season is closely related to the lives of the people and the socio-economic development of the area. By using precipitation data and sea surface temperature data, this study reveals the spatial and temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation during the East African short rainy season. Key findings include significant rainfall variability, with Tanzania experiencing the highest amounts in December due to the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while other regions receive less than 100 mm. Extreme rainfall events (90th percentiles) are evenly distributed, averaging 2 to 10 days annually. Historical data shows maximum seasonal rainfall often peaks at 15 mm, with frequent occurrences of daily rainfall exceeding 10 mm during OND. Additionally, a positive correlation (0.48) between OND precipitation extremes and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies is statistically significant. These findings highlight the climatic variability and potential trends in extreme rainfall events in East Africa, providing valuable insights for regional climate adaptation strategies.

Study of relationship between wave transport and sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the tropical Pacific

Large-scale water transport is one of the key factors that affect sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） in the eastern equatorial Pacific（EEP）.The relationship between the wave transport in the tropical Pacific and the SSTA in the EEP is examined by different methods,including band-pass filtering,period analysis,correlation analysis,significant analysis,and empirical orthogonal function（EOF） analysis.We have found that the eastward shift of the wave transport anomaly in the tropical Pacific,with a period of 2 a and enhancing the transport of warm waters from the western Pacific warm pool,precedes the increase of sea surface temperature（SST） in the EEP.The wave transport and the SSTA in the EEP have a maximum correlation of 0.65 with a time-lag of 6 months（transport variation precedes the temperature）.The major periods（3.7 a and 2.45 a） of the wave transport variability,as revealed by the EOF analysis,appear to be consistent with the SSTA oscillation cycle in the EEP.Based on the first occurrence of a significant SSTA in the Ni？o 3 region（5°S–5°N,90°–150°W）,two types of warm events are defined.The wave transport anomalies in two types present predominantly the west anomaly in the tropical Pacific,it is that the wave transport continues transport warm water from west to east before the onset of the warm event.The impact of wave-induced water transport on the SSTA in the EEP is confirmed by the heat flux of the wave transport.The wave transport exerts significant effect on the SSTA variability in the EEP and thus is not neglectable in the further studies.

Relation between sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic and summer precipitation over the Northeast China

Based on global monthly average data set of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1950 - 1992 and global monthly average 500 hPa height during 1930- 1997 offered by NCARINCEP, the feature of SST anomaly in the Atlantic and its relation with summer precipitation over the Northeast China are analyzed. The results show that, the second eigenvector of the SST’s empirical orthogonal expanssion in winter season over the North Atlantic suggests that dist-ibution of SST anomaly has unusual meridional difference; The location of its center is basically identical to center of significant correlation region be- tween summer precipitation over the Northeast China and winter SST in the Atlantic. When winter SST in the North Atlantic is hot in south and cold in north, the blocking situation is stronger in the middle- high latitude. Correspondingly, the blocking high pressure in the northern North Pacific is also getting stronger, the westerlies circulation index in East Asia in next summer would be lower,as a result,more precipitation in the summer would be experienced over Northeast China and vice versa.

Long-term changes in sea surface temperature(SST)within the southern Levantine Basin

Knowledge of sea surface temperature(SST)behaviour is vital for long-term climate scenarios.This study highlights essential outcomes about the distinguishable and unsurprising warming of the SST along the southern border of the Levantine Basin.The analysis is based on monthly SST data for the period 1948-2018.The southern Levantine Basin has undergone SST increase,during the last 71 years.In this study,a consistent warming trend has been found for the analysed SST data series,with a rate of 0.04℃/a,i.e.,0.4℃/(10 a).From 1975 to 1991 the mean annual SST was 17.1℃,and this increased to be 19.2℃,over the period 2002-2018.Results revealed two opposite trends of variability:a decreasing trend(−0.06℃/a)over the period 1975-1991,and an increasing trend(0.2℃/a)from 2002 to 2018.Over the period 1948-2018,positive mean annual SST anomalies had an average of 1.8℃,and negative anomalies had an average of−1.1℃.The lowest SST total increase was found from January to April,with values about 0.03℃,while the highest warming appeared from June to September.The driving mechanisms behind the SST changes need to be more investigated,to understand the future trends and impacts of climate change in the Levantine Basin.

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE(SST) and PRECIPITATION OVER NW CHINA

With the singular value decomposition (SVD), correlation analysis has been conducted between the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and northwestern China precipitation over March May (MAM). The result shows that there is good relationship between the North Pacific and spring precipitation in northwestern China. When the SST is of the peak El Ni駉 phase, precipitation is less over this part of the country except for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when the SST for the months DJF is of the mature El Ni駉 phase, precipitation is more over the region in the subsequent March May; when the North Pacific SST for DJF is of the La Ni馻 pattern, precipitation is less over the plateau in the subsequent March May. For the Pacific SST, the westerly drift, kuroshio current, Californian current and north equatorial current are all significantly correlating with the March May precipitation in northwestern China. Specifically, the SST in DJF over the kuroshio current region is out of phase with the precipitation in northern Xinjiang, i.e. when the former is low, the latter is more. In northwestern China, regions in which March May precipitation response to the variation of SST in the Pacific Ocean are northern Xinjiang, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and areas off its northeastern part, the desert basin and western part of the Corridor of the Great Bend of Yellow River valley (Corridor).

Interannual Fluctuations of Surface Air Temperature over North America and Its Relationship to the North Pacific SST Anomaly

The characteristics of interannual fluctuations of the surface air temperature over North America are investigated by using the surface air temperature data of 130 stations during 1941 through 1980. It is found that the surface air temperature bears about ten-year time scale oscillation over the southeastern and northwestern North America and along the west coast of the United States, and it has the characteristics of quasibiennial oscillation over the eastern North America. The ten-year scale oscillation of the surface air temperature is related to that of the sea surface temperature (SST) of North Pacific through the PNA pattern atmospheric circulation anomaly over North Pacific through North America. It is shown that the North Pacific SST has a closer association with the surface air temperature over North America than the central and eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The characteristics of the seasonal variations of the relationship between the North Pacific SST and the surface air temperature over North America are also analyzed.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Precipitation Distribution in the Alagoas State of the Brazilian Northeast

Precipitation data of 17 pluviometrical stations in the Alagoas State of the Brazilian Northeast and global spatial distribution of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) were analyzed for the period of 1981-2007. Techniques of constructing composite charts for SSTA fields are used to study the interrelation between the ocean thermal state with precipitation more than 50 mm/24 h, 20 mm/24 h or without precipitation for six ambient regions of the state. The student test is used for estimating statistical characteristics of the composites. Synoptic-scale pattern analyses of the composites reveal strikingly different spatial distribution of SSTA within each composite. The El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle refers to the coherent, large-scale fluctuation of ocean temperatures. At the highest ambient regions during heavy precipitation days, more intensive SSTA was observed. The lowest anomalies were observed for all types of precipitation in the semi-arid region. Quantile analyses of NCEP/NCAR indexes of SSTA distribution, such as NATL, SATL, TROP and RNASA were used too. Positive SSTA values in tropical regions are associated with the highest possibility of precipitation formation. The SST interhemispheric north-south gradient in equatorial regions of the North and South Atlantic has direct influence on the precipitation formation in the Alagoas State.

Sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic during El Nino decaying years

Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016,this study focuses on the sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in El Nino decaying years.The TNA SST exhibits a clear warm trend during this period.The composite result for 10 El Nino events shows that the TNA SST anomaly reaches its maximum in spring after the peak of an El Nino event and persists until summer.In general,the anomaly is associated with three factors-namely,El Nino,the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and a long-term trend,leading to an increase in local SST up to 0.4℃,0.3℃,and 0.35℃,respectively.A comparison between 1983 and 2005 indicates that the TNA SST in spring is affected by El Niño,as well as the local SST in the preceding winter,which may involve a long-term trend signal.In addition,the lead-lag correlation shows that the NAO leads the TNA SST by 2-3 months.By comparing two years with an opposite phase of the NAO in winter(i.e.,1992 and 2010),the authors further demonstrate that the NAO is another important factor in regulating the TNA SST anomaly.A negative phase of the NAO in winter will reinforce the El Nino forcing substantially,and vise versa.In other words,the TNA SST anomaly in the decaying years is more evident if the NAO is negative with El Nino.Therefore,the combined effects of El Nino and the NAO must be considered in order to fully understand the TNA SST variability along with a long-term trend.

Sea Surface Temperature Simulation of Tropical and North Pacific Basins Using a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

A Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model （HYCOM） is used to simulate the sea surface temperature of the Tropical and North Pacific. Based on the different combinations of two air-Sea flux data sets （COADS and ECMWF） and two bulk parameter formulas （non-constant and constant）, four numerical experiments are carried out. The following conclusions can be deduced from the numerical results. （1） The numerical results using non-constant bulk parameter formula are much better than those using constant one. In the Pacific area from 40°N to 20°S, the annual average SST obtained from the experiment using non-constant bulk parameter formula is 0.21 ℃ higher than that from the satellite-based SST climatology （the pathfinder data）. However, the difference is 0.63 ℃ for the experiment when the using constant one. （2） HYCOM successfully simulates the monthly variation of climatological SST in tropical and north Pacific basins and monthly spatial variation of Western Pacific Warm Pool. Especially in the Pacific area from 40°N to 20°S, the difference of the seasonal averaged SST between pathfinder data and the result of experiment 2 （using COADS data set and non-constant bulk parameter formula） is only about 0.02 ℃. （3）The simulation results using different Air-Sea flux data are different and the difference is very large in some regions. In the northwest of the model region, the annual average SST obtained from experiment 2 （using COADS data set） is 1℃ higher than that obtained from experiment 4 （using ECMWF data set）. Contrarily, the result of experiment 4 is 1 ℃ larger than that of experiment 2 in the southeast of the model region. The largest difference is about 4 ℃ occurred near the area of 58°N, 140°E and the Bohai sea.

The Singular Value Decomposition Analysis between Summer Precipitation in the Dongting Lake Region and the Global Sea Surface Temperature

By dint of the summer precipitation data from 21 stations in the Dongting Lake region during 1960-2008 and the sea surface temperature(SST) data from NOAA,the spatial and temporal distributions of summer precipitation and their correlations with SST are analyzed.The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in summer precipitation and the variation of SST has between studied with the Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) analysis.The increase or decrease of summer precipitation in the Dongting Lake region is closely associated with the SST anomalies in three key regions.The variation of SST in the three key regions has been proved to be a significant previous signal to anomaly of summer rainfall in Dongting region.

The effects of different sea surface temperature distributions over the western Pacific on the summer monsoon properties

A modified and improved primitive equation numerical model with p-sigma incorporated vertical coordinates is used to simulate the effects of different sea surface temperature distributions over the western Pacific on the summer monsoon properties. The different sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are automatically generated in the time integrations by using two different SST models, one of which is called the deep ocean model (DOM) and the other the shallow ocean model (SOM). The SST generated by the DOM has the distribution pattern of the initial SST which is similar to the pattern in the cold water years over the western Pacific, while the SST generated by the SOM has the pattern similar to that in the warm water years. The differences between the experimental results by using DOM and SOM are analyzed in detail. The analyses indicate that the most basic and important characteristics of the summer monsoon climate can be simulated successfully in both experiments, that means the climatic properties in the monsoonal climate regions are mainly determined by the seasonal heating, the contrast between the land and the sea, the topography, and the physical properties of the underlying surfaces. However, the differences between the two experiments tell us that the climatic properties in the summer monsoon regions in the cold water year and the warm water year do differ from each other in details. In the warm water year, the thermal contrast between the land and the sea becomes weaker. Over the warm water area, the upward motions are induced and the dynamical conditions favorable for the convective activities are formed, the Somali low-level cross equatorial current is somewhat weakened, while the cross equatorial currents, east of 90°E, are strongly strengthened, the precipitation amount in the tropical regions largely increases, and the precipitation over the coastal regions increases, too. However the precipitation over the southeast China and its coastal area decreases. The precipitation amount mainly depends on the strength of the convective activity.

Sea surface temperature and salinity reconstruction based on stable isotopes and Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera in the western Pacific Warm Pool during the last 155 ka

Changes in sea surface temperature （SST）, seawater oxygen isotope （δ18Osw）, and local salinity proxy （δ18Osw-ss ） in the past 155 ka were studied using a sediment core （MD06-3052） from the northern edge of the western Pacific Warm Pool （WPWP）, within the flow path of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. Our records reveal a lead-lag relationship between paired Mg/Ca-SST and δ18O during Termination II and the last interglacial period. Similarity in SST between our site and the Antarctic temperature proxy and in CO2 profile showed a close connection between the WPWP and the Antarctic. Values of 818Osw exhibited very similar variations to those of mean ocean δ18Osw, owing to the past sea-level changes on glacial-interglacial timescale. Calculated values of δ18O reflect a more saline condition during high local summer insolation （SI） periods. Such correspondence between δ18O and local SI in the WPWP may reflect complex interaction between ENSO and monsoon, which was stimulated by changes in solar irradiance and their influence on the local hydrologic cycle. This then caused a striking reorganization of atmospheric circulation over the WPWP.

The Relationships between Variations of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Key Ocean Areas and the Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in China

The relationships between variations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTVA) in the key ocean areas and the precipitation / temperature anomalies in China are studied based on the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from January 1951 to December 1998 and the same stage monthly mean precipitation/ temperature data of 160 stations in China. The purpose of the present study is to discuss whether the relationship between SSTVA and precipitation / temperature is different from that between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and precipitation/ temperature, and whether the uncertainty of prediction can be reduced by use of SSTVA. The results show that the responses of precipitation anomalies to the two kinds of tendency of SSTA are different. This implies that discussing the effects of two kinds of tendency of SSTA on precipitation anomalies is better than just discussing the effects of SSTA on precipitation anomalies. It helps to reduce the uncertainty of prediction. The temperature anomalies have more identical re-sponses to the two kinds of tendency of SSTA than the precipitation except in the western Pacific Ocean. The response of precipitation anomalies to SSTVA is different from that to SSTA, but there are some similarities. Key words Variations of sea surface temperature anomalies - Precipitation anomalies - Temperature anomalies - Statistical significance test Sponsored jointly by the “ National Key Developing Program for Basic Sciences” (G1998040900) Part I and the Key Program of National Nature Science Foundation of China “ Analyses and Mechanism Study of the Regional Climatic Change in China” under Grant No.49735170.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on Outbreak of Ulva prolifera in the Southern Yellow Sea,China

In this study,using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)satellite images and environmental satellite CCD images,the spatio-temporal distribution of Ulva prolifera in the southern Yellow Sea during the period of 2011–2018 was extracted and combined with MODIS Level3 Photosynthetically Active Radiation(PAR)product data and Earth System Research Laboratory(ESRL)Sea Surface Temperature(SST)data to analyze their influences on the growth and outbreak of Ulva prolifera.The following conclusions were drawn:1)comprehensive analysis of Ulva prolifera distribution during the eight-year period revealed that the coverage area of Ulva prolifera typically exhibited a gradually increasing trend.The coverage area of Ulva prolifera reached a maximum of approximately 1714.21 km^2 during the eight-year period in late June 2015.The area affected by Ulva prolifera fluctuated.In mid-July 2014,the area affected by Ulva prolifera reached a maximum of approximately 39020.63 km^2.2)The average growth rate of Ulva prolifera was positive in May and June but negative in July.During the outbreak of Ulva prolifera,the SST in the southern Yellow Sea tended to increase each month.The SST anomaly and average growth rate of Ulva prolifera were positively correlated in May(R^2=0.62),but not significantly correlated in June or July.3)The variation trends of PAR and SST were approximately the same,and the PAR during this time period maintained a range of 40–50 mol/(m^2·d),providing sufficient illumination for the growth and outbreak of Ulva prolifera.In addition,the abundant nutrients and suitable temperature in the sea area near northern Jiangsu shoal resulted in a high growth rate of Ulva prolifera in May.In summary,the outbreak of Ulva prolifera was closely related to the environmental factors including SST,nutrients,and PAR.Sufficient nutrients and suitable temperatures resulted in a fast growth rate of Ulva prolifera.However,under poor nutrient conditions,even more suitable temperatures were not sufficient to trigger an outbreak of Ulva prolifera.

APPLICATION OF NONLINEAR MULTI-CHANNEL ALGORITHMS FOR ESTIMATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITH NOAA 14 AVHRR DATA

NOAA global operational NOAA/AVHRR Nonlinear Sea Surface Temperature (NLSST) retrieval algorithms were used to generate Global Area Coverage (GAC) sea surface temperature (SST) measurements in the global ocean in 1998. The accuracy of SST retrieved from daytime split window NLSST algorithm and nighttime triple window NLSST algorithm for NOAA 14 AVHRR data was investigated in this study. A matchup dataset of drifting buoys and NOAA 14 satellite measurements in the global ocean was generated to validate these operational split window and triple window algorithms. For NOAA 14 in 1998, we had 14095 and 22643 satellite and buoy matchups that matched within 25 km and 4 hours for daytime and nighttime, respectively. The satellite derived SST had a bias of less than 0.1℃ and standard deviation of about 0.5℃. This study also showed that the NLSST algorithm provided the same order of SST accuracy in different time of the year and under a wide range of satellite zenith angle and water vapor represented by the channel 4 and 5 brightness temperature difference. Therefore, NLSST algorithms are usually independent of season, geographic location, or atmospheric moisture content. Comparison between the low resolution AVHRR GAC data accuracy and high resolution Local Area Coverage (LAC) data accuracy is also discussed.

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition （SVD） and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni（n）a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Ni（n）o pattern.

Impact of climatic change on sea surface temperature variation in Subei coastal waters,East China

Sea surface temperature （SST） variation in the Subei coastal waters, East China, which is important for the ecological environment of the Yellow Sea where Enteromorphaprolifera blooms frequently, is affected by the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）, El Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. In this study, correlations between climatic events and SST anomalies （SSTA） around the Subei （North Jiangsu Province, East China） Coast from 1981-2012 are analyzed, using empirical orthogonal function （EOF） and correlation analyses. First, a key region was determined by EOF analysis to represent the Subei coastal waters. Then, coherency analyses were performed on this key region. According to the correlation analysis, the EAWM index has a positive correlation with the spring and summer SSTA of the key region. Furthermore, the Nifio3.4 index is negatively correlated with the spring and summer SSTA of the key region 1 year ahead, and the PDO has significant negative coherency with spring SSTA and negative coherency with summer SSTA in the key region 1 year ahead. Overall, PDO exhibits the most significant impact on SSTA of the key region. In the key region, all these factors are correlated more significantly with SSTA in spring than in summer. This suggests that outbreaks ofEnteromorpha prolifera in the Yellow Sea are affected by global climatic changes, especially the PDO.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year （1993-2010） National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature （SST） and simple ocean data assimilation datasets, this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies （SSTAs） that occurred in the South China Sea （SCS） during the mature phase of the E1 Nifio/Southem Oscillation. The most dominant characteristic was that of the out- of-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS, which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection. The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during E1 Nifio episodes. Conversely, it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during E1 Nifio episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.

A Gaussian process regression-based sea surface temperature interpolation algorithm

The resolution of ocean reanalysis datasets is generally low because of the limited resolution of their associated numerical models.Low-resolution ocean reanalysis datasets are therefore usually interpolated to provide an initial or boundary field for higher-resolution regional ocean models.However,traditional interpolation methods(nearest neighbor interpolation,bilinear interpolation,and bicubic interpolation)lack physical constraints and can generate significant errors at land-sea boundaries and around islands.In this paper,a machine learning method is used to design an interpolation algorithm based on Gaussian process regression.The method uses a multiscale kernel function to process two-dimensional space meteorological ocean processes and introduces multiscale physical feature information(sea surface wind stress,sea surface heat flux,and ocean current velocity).This greatly improves the spatial resolution of ocean features and the interpolation accuracy.The eff ectiveness of the algorithm was validated through interpolation experiments relating to sea surface temperature(SST).The root mean square error(RMSE)of the interpolation algorithm was 38.9%,43.7%,and 62.4%lower than that of bilinear interpolation,bicubic interpolation,and nearest neighbor interpolation,respectively.The interpolation accuracy was also significantly better in off shore area and around islands.The algorithm has an acceptable runtime cost and good temporal and spatial generalizability.

A comparison of Argo nominal surface and near-surface temperature for validation ofAMSR-E SST

Satellite SST(sea surface temperature) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) is compared with in situ temperature observations from Argo profiling floats over the global oceans to evaluate the advantages of Argo NST(near-surface temperature: water temperature less than 1 m from the surface). By comparing Argo nominal surface temperature(~5 m) with its NST, a diurnal cycle caused by daytime warming and nighttime cooling was found, along with a maximum warming of 0.08±0.36°C during 14:00–15:00 local time. Further comparisons between Argo 5-m temperature/Argo NST and AMSR-E SST retrievals related to wind speed, columnar water vapor, and columnar cloud water indicate warming biases at low wind speed(<5 m/s) and columnar water vapor >28 mm during daytime. The warming tendency is more remarkable for AMSR-E SST/Argo 5-m temperature compared with AMSR-E SST/Argo NST, owing to the effect of diurnal warming. This effect of diurnal warming events should be excluded before validation for microwave SST retrievals. Both AMSR-E nighttime SST/Argo 5-m temperature and nighttime SST/Argo NST show generally good agreement, independent of wind speed and columnar water vapor. From our analysis, Argo NST data demonstrated their advantages for validation of satellite-retrieved SST.