Correlations between Sea Surface Temperature in Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Rain Days over China in Summer

Sea-surface temperature (SST) in the eastern, equatorial Pacific and rain days over China in summer are analysed using correlation moments that is proposed by author and principal component analysis(PCA). Occurrences of the strong rain-day anomalies over China are associated with extreme SSTs in some years. Areas significantly affected by the phenomena include North and Northeast China.

The low frequency oscillations of the sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and El Nino formation

-In this paper the variations of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific are analysed. The results show that there are two peaks in the spectrum. One is the low frequency oscillation with a period of 3 - 5 years, and the other is the quasi-biennial oscillation. The former shows a westward migration in the warm episode of SSTA and the latter has the opposite trend. The El Nino events will be formed while the two frquency bands are in phase in the warming stage of SSTA in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific

Relationship between Meridional Displacement of the Monthly East Asian Jet Stream in the Summer and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central and Eastern Pacific

Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months.This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer.The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years,while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer.The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer).The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere,which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June.The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific,however,may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.

Atmospheric Circulations and Sea Surface Temperatures Related to the convection over the western Pacific Warm Pool on the Interannual Scale

The difference is examined in atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the trop-ics and subtropics between weak and strong convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool (signified as WPWP). The WPWP is chosen as the region (110–160°E, 10–20°N), where the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) shows a great year-to-year variance. A composite study was carried out to examine the differences in atmospheric circulation and SSTs between weak and strong convection over WPWP. First, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and satellite-observed OLR data are used to examine the differences. ERA data, in which the OLR data are calculated, are then used for re-examination. The composite results show that the differences are remarkably similar in these two sets of data. The difference in circulations between weak and strong convection over WPWP is significantly associated with westward extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and stronger westerlies at the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. It also corresponds with the significant easterly anomaly and the descent anomaly in situ, i.e., over the WPWP. The most prominent characteristics of the difference of SSTs between weak and strong convection over the WPWP are the significant positive SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. In WPWP, however, there are only weak negative SST anomalies. Thus, the anomaly of OLR over WPWP is weakly associated with the SST anomalies in situ, while closely associated with the SST anomalies west of WPWP. Key words Convection over the western Pacific warm pool - Northwest Pacific subtropical high - Sea surface temperatures This study was supported by the “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 Part 1.

Study of relationship between wave transport and sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the tropical Pacific

Large-scale water transport is one of the key factors that affect sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） in the eastern equatorial Pacific（EEP）.The relationship between the wave transport in the tropical Pacific and the SSTA in the EEP is examined by different methods,including band-pass filtering,period analysis,correlation analysis,significant analysis,and empirical orthogonal function（EOF） analysis.We have found that the eastward shift of the wave transport anomaly in the tropical Pacific,with a period of 2 a and enhancing the transport of warm waters from the western Pacific warm pool,precedes the increase of sea surface temperature（SST） in the EEP.The wave transport and the SSTA in the EEP have a maximum correlation of 0.65 with a time-lag of 6 months（transport variation precedes the temperature）.The major periods（3.7 a and 2.45 a） of the wave transport variability,as revealed by the EOF analysis,appear to be consistent with the SSTA oscillation cycle in the EEP.Based on the first occurrence of a significant SSTA in the Ni？o 3 region（5°S–5°N,90°–150°W）,two types of warm events are defined.The wave transport anomalies in two types present predominantly the west anomaly in the tropical Pacific,it is that the wave transport continues transport warm water from west to east before the onset of the warm event.The impact of wave-induced water transport on the SSTA in the EEP is confirmed by the heat flux of the wave transport.The wave transport exerts significant effect on the SSTA variability in the EEP and thus is not neglectable in the further studies.

Sea surface temperature and salinity reconstruction based on stable isotopes and Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera in the western Pacific Warm Pool during the last 155 ka

Changes in sea surface temperature （SST）, seawater oxygen isotope （δ18Osw）, and local salinity proxy （δ18Osw-ss ） in the past 155 ka were studied using a sediment core （MD06-3052） from the northern edge of the western Pacific Warm Pool （WPWP）, within the flow path of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. Our records reveal a lead-lag relationship between paired Mg/Ca-SST and δ18O during Termination II and the last interglacial period. Similarity in SST between our site and the Antarctic temperature proxy and in CO2 profile showed a close connection between the WPWP and the Antarctic. Values of 818Osw exhibited very similar variations to those of mean ocean δ18Osw, owing to the past sea-level changes on glacial-interglacial timescale. Calculated values of δ18O reflect a more saline condition during high local summer insolation （SI） periods. Such correspondence between δ18O and local SI in the WPWP may reflect complex interaction between ENSO and monsoon, which was stimulated by changes in solar irradiance and their influence on the local hydrologic cycle. This then caused a striking reorganization of atmospheric circulation over the WPWP.

The effect of sea surface temperature increase on the potential habitat of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

In the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the squid jigging fisheries from China, Japan and other countries and regions have targeted the west winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid（Ommastrephes bartramii） from August to November since the 1970 s. This squid is a short-lived ecological opportunist with a life-span of about one year,and its population is labile and recruitment variability is driven by the environment or climate change. This variability provides a challenge for ones to forecast the key habitats affected by climate change. The catch data of O. bartramii from Chinese squid jigging fishery and the satellite-derived sea surface temperature（SST） data are used in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from August to November of 1998 to 2004, the SST preferences of O.bartramii corresponding to high values of catch per fishing day（CPUE） are determined and monthly potential habitats are predicted using a histogram analysis of the SST data. The possible changes in the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are estimated under four climate change scenarios based on the Fourth Assessment Report（AR4） of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, i.e., 0.5, 1, 2 and 4°C increases in the SST because of the climate change. The results reveal an obvious poleward shift of the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Different Responses of Sea Surface Temperature in the North Pacific to Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Forcing

The responses of Sea Surface Temperature(SST) to greenhouse gas(GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol in the North Pa- cific are compared based on the historical single and all-forcing simulations with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3(GFDL CM3). During 1860–2005, the effect of GHG forcing on the North Pacific SST is opposite to that of the aerosol forcing. Specifically, the aerosol cooling effect exceeds the GHG warming effect in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region dur- ing 1950–2004 in the CM3 single forcing. The mid-latitude response of ocean circulation to the GHG(aerosol) forcing is to enhance(weaken) the Subtropical Gyre. Then the SST warming(cooling) lies on the zonal band of 40?N because of the increased(reduced) KE warm advection effect in the GHG(aerosol) forcing simulations, and the cooling effect to SST will surpass the warming effect in the KE region in the historical all-forcing simulations. Besides, the positive feedback between cold SST and cloud can also strengthen the aerosol cooling effect in the KE region during boreal summer, when the mixed layer depth is shallow. In the GHG(aerosol) forcing simulations, corresponding to warming(cooling) SST in the KE region, the weakened(enhanced) Aleutian Low appears in the Northeast Pacific. Consequently, the SST responses to all-forcing in the historical simulations are similar to the re- sponses to aerosol forcing in sign and spatial pattern, hence the aerosol effect is quite important to the SST cooling in the mid-latitude North Pacific during the past 55 years.

The Influence of Meridional Variation in North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex

This study examines the dependence of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)variations on the meridional positions of the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific SST.The principal component 1(PC1)of the first leading mode is obtained by empirical orthogonal function decomposition.Reanalysis data,numerical experiments,and CMIP5 model outputs all suggest that the PC1 events(positive-minus-negative PC1 events),located relatively northward(i.e.,North PC1 events),more easily weaken the Arctic SPV compared to the PC1 events located relatively southward(i.e.,South PC1 events).The analysis indicates that the North PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located over the northern North Pacific and thus enhances the climatological trough,which strengthens the planetary-scale wave 1 at mid-to-high latitudes and thereby weakens the SPV.The weakened stratospheric circulation further extends into the troposphere and favors negative surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia.By contrast,the South PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located relatively southward,and its constructive interference with the climatological trough is less efficient at high latitudes.Thus,the South PC1 events could not induce an evident enhancement of the planetary-scale waves at high latitudes and thereby a weakening of the SPV on average.The Eurasian cooling associated with South PC1 events(positive-minus-negative PC1 events)is also not prominent.The results of this study suggest that the meridional positions of the PC1 events may be useful for predicting the Arctic SPV and Eurasian surface temperature variations.

Seasonal sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific

Mean seasonal surface temperatures of the North Pacific are illustrated in three maps. Twenty nine years of ship-injection temperatures are used for the whole North Pacific (north of 20?N). Map number two shows geographical regions of the month of highest sea surface temperature. There are two broad bands in the central and eastern basin, trending northeast/southwest, such that the September band lies east of the August band along a given latitude line. Map three depicts regions of the lowest monthly mean temperatures. March is the most common month, but in the middle of the ocean is a band of Februarys trending northeast/southwest. These features on maps two and three are interpreted in terms of the newly proposed wide warm surface current and its seasonal variations, mainly in horizontal position, flowing northeastward off California. It has not been found possible to compare maps two and three with the results from any earlier work. Map one shows the mean seasonal range of surface temperature, which has a character similar to maps going all the way back to the late 1800s, but is based on considerably more data.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990.Correspondingly,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990.The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after 1990.The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences.Before 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,respectively.Meanwhile,the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific.After 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,respectively.Overall,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990.Consequently,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH.On the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE(SST) and PRECIPITATION OVER NW CHINA

With the singular value decomposition (SVD), correlation analysis has been conducted between the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and northwestern China precipitation over March May (MAM). The result shows that there is good relationship between the North Pacific and spring precipitation in northwestern China. When the SST is of the peak El Ni駉 phase, precipitation is less over this part of the country except for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when the SST for the months DJF is of the mature El Ni駉 phase, precipitation is more over the region in the subsequent March May; when the North Pacific SST for DJF is of the La Ni馻 pattern, precipitation is less over the plateau in the subsequent March May. For the Pacific SST, the westerly drift, kuroshio current, Californian current and north equatorial current are all significantly correlating with the March May precipitation in northwestern China. Specifically, the SST in DJF over the kuroshio current region is out of phase with the precipitation in northern Xinjiang, i.e. when the former is low, the latter is more. In northwestern China, regions in which March May precipitation response to the variation of SST in the Pacific Ocean are northern Xinjiang, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and areas off its northeastern part, the desert basin and western part of the Corridor of the Great Bend of Yellow River valley (Corridor).

Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.

SPATIAL VARIATION OF WINTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS RELATION TO ATMOSPHERIC OSCILLATION MODES

The spatial variation of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the North Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated using the EOF decomposition method.The first two main modes of SSTA are associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) mode and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO) mode,respectively.Moreover,the first mode(PDO) is switched to the second mode(NPGO),a dominant mode after mid-1980.The mechanism of the modes' transition is analyzed.As the two oceanic modes are forced by the Aleutian Low(AL) and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO) modes,the AR-1 model is further used to examine the possible effect and mechanism of AL and NPO in generating the PDO and NPGO.The results show that compared to the NPO,the AL plays a more important role in generating the NPGO mode since the 1970s.Likewise,both the AL and NPO affect the PDO mode since the 1980s.

The PNA wavetrain and the sea surface temperature in the Northern Pacific

In this paper, the response of the atmospheric 3-5 year cycle to Northern Pacific SST is discussed, The results are as follows:1. From the simultaneous temporal correlations between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST, the westerly dirft area's SST and the Northern Pacific SST at all gridpoints, we find that there are three correlative regions in the Northern Pacific SST field, they are the westerly drift area, the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and the Alaska Bay , and their structures are very similar to the PNA pattern in the atmosphere The difference PTI between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST anomaly and the westerly drift area's SST anomaly can indicate the change of the PNA pattern of the Northern Pacific SST anomaly. It can represent SST change of 65 % areas over the Northern Pacific and can keep watch on El Nino and un-El Nino.2. Simultaneous temporal correlative field between PTI and filtered 500hPa (there is 3-5 year cycle only ) of the Northern Hemisphere presents clear PNA structure. The responses of the filtered 500hPa to El Nino and to un-EI Nino produce +PNA and -PNA wavetrains respectively.3. According to the different positions of the sea-surface temperature rise (drop) ,El Nino (un-EI Nino )can be divided into two classes: east-pattern and middle-pattern. The responses of the filtered 500hPa to the east-pattern and to the middle-pattern will produce PNA and EAA wavetrain respectively. This indicates that the responses of the atmosphere to the stationary heat sources in diffrent areas will produce wavetrains in diffrent track.

Evaluation of NOAA/AVHRR Sea Surface Temperature at Full HRPT Resolution in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites(POES)High Resolution Picture Transmission(HRPT)data in the Northwest Pacific Ocean has been acquired through the SeaSpace ground station located at the Ocean University of China since October 2000,and these data have been processed by the TeraScan system.The sea surface temperature(SST)products in the Northwest Pacific Ocean derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR)are evaluated.We compared the SST products with the buoy SSTs during the stable operational period of each satellite.There are a total of 33715 and 71819 matchups acquired for daytime and nighttime,respectively,between the NOAA/AVHRR SSTs and buoy SSTs.For each satellite,the biases and standard deviations at daytime are smaller than those at nighttime.The monthly biases at daytime generally oscillate around 0℃,except for NOAA-15.By contrast,the monthly biases at nighttime mostly oscillate around−0.5℃.Both daytime and nighttime biases exhibit seasonal oscillations for all satellites.The seasonal biases of the SST difference at daytime between each satellite and buoy are mostly within±0.25℃,except for the negative bias of−0.58℃in May for NOAA-18.The seasonal biases of the SST difference at nighttime are mostly around−0.5℃,and NOAA-16 has a lower bias,i.e.,−0.86℃,in April.These results indicate that the accuracy of the SST products is inconsistent for each satellite during different periods.It is suggested that the NOAA/AVHRR data should be reprocessed to provide highly accurate SST products.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal ftmction （EOF）, composite analysis and singular value decomposition （SVD）. The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA） lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer （colder） than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases （decreases） in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.

East-west oscillation of sea temperature in the Equatorial Pacific and its modelling

In this paper, by analyzing the data of sea temperature in the Equatorial Western Pacific (EWP), we found that the sea temperature at sensitive district (WSST) (about at 6° N, depth of 125-150 m) is correlated negatively to the sea temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (EEP). On the basis of basic characteristics of Equatorial Pacific atmosphere and ocean, we designed a simple air-sea coupled model. Using this model,an ocean circulation was simulated. The east-west oscillation of sea temperature in Equatorial Pacific is related to this ocean circulation.

Experiments in numerical modelling of the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

By using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model (CGCM) which is composed of a 2-level global atmospheric general circulation model and a 4-layer Pacific oceanic general circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and two model climatological fields got from the two independent models' numerical integrations respectively, the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) from 1988 to 1989 are simulated in this paper with observed atmospheric general circulation data and sea surface temperature fields as initial conditions and monthly coupling scheme. In order to remove systematic biases of the model climatological fields, interaction variables between atmosphere and ocean are also corrected simultaneously. The experiments show that the simulation results can be improved effectively if these interaction variables are corrected in spite of the fact that there always exist systematic biases in independent numerical simulations of atmospheric part and oceanic part within CGCM. The basic characteristics of the observed Pacific SSTA in September and October 1988 have been simulated by using the correction scheme, such as the negative SSTA domain in the whole E-quatorial Pacific east to 150°E and the positive SSTA domain in the Western Pacific, the northern subtropical Pacific and nearly the whole Southern Pacific. Further numerical simulations show that the model can simulate not only the SSTA in the Pacific and its seasonal variations but also its interannual changes (for example, La Nino event in the Equatorial Pacific terminated after May 1989) to a certain degree. Furthermore, some problems existing in experiment processes and what we shoud do in the following stage are also discussed and analysed in this paper.