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A New Class of Nonlinear Conjugate Gradient Methods with Global Convergence Properties 被引量:1
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作者 陈忠 《长江大学学报(自科版)(上旬)》 CAS 2014年第3期I0001-I0003,共3页
非线性共轭梯度法由于其迭代简单和储存量小,且搜索方向不需要满足正割条件,在求解大规模无约束优化问题时占据及其重要的地位.提出了一类新的共轭梯度法,其搜索方向是目标函数的下降方向.若假设目标函数连续可微且梯度满足Lipschitz条... 非线性共轭梯度法由于其迭代简单和储存量小,且搜索方向不需要满足正割条件,在求解大规模无约束优化问题时占据及其重要的地位.提出了一类新的共轭梯度法,其搜索方向是目标函数的下降方向.若假设目标函数连续可微且梯度满足Lipschitz条件,线性搜索满足Wolfe原则,讨论了所设计算法的全局收敛性. 展开更多
关键词 摘要 编辑部 编辑工作 读者
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GLOBAL CONVERGENCE RESULTS OF A THREE TERM MEMORY GRADIENT METHOD WITH A NON-MONOTONE LINE SEARCH TECHNIQUE 被引量:12
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作者 孙清滢 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2005年第1期170-178,共9页
In this paper, a new class of three term memory gradient method with non-monotone line search technique for unconstrained optimization is presented. Global convergence properties of the new methods are discussed. Comb... In this paper, a new class of three term memory gradient method with non-monotone line search technique for unconstrained optimization is presented. Global convergence properties of the new methods are discussed. Combining the quasi-Newton method with the new method, the former is modified to have global convergence property. Numerical results show that the new algorithm is efficient. 展开更多
关键词 Non-linear programming three term memory gradient method convergence non-monotone line search technique numerical experiment
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ON THE GLOBAL CONVERGENCE OF CONJUGATE GRADIENT METHODS WITH INEXACT LINESEARCH
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作者 刘光辉 韩继业 《Numerical Mathematics A Journal of Chinese Universities(English Series)》 SCIE 1995年第2期147-153,共7页
In this paper we consider the global convergence of any conjugate gradient method of the form d1=-g1,dk+1=-gk+1+βkdk(k≥1)with any βk satisfying sume conditions,and with the strong wolfe line search conditions.Under... In this paper we consider the global convergence of any conjugate gradient method of the form d1=-g1,dk+1=-gk+1+βkdk(k≥1)with any βk satisfying sume conditions,and with the strong wolfe line search conditions.Under the convex assumption on the objective function,we preve the descenf property and the global convergence of this method. 展开更多
关键词 CONJUGATE GRADIENT method STRONG Wolfe line SEARCH global convergence.
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GLOBAL CONVERGENCE OF THE GENERAL THREE TERM CONJUGATE GRADIENT METHODS WITH THE RELAXED STRONG WOLFE LINE SEARCH
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作者 Xu Zeshui Yue ZhenjunInstitute of Sciences,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,210016. 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2001年第1期58-62,共5页
The global convergence of the general three term conjugate gradient methods with the relaxed strong Wolfe line search is proved.
关键词 Conjugate gradient method inexact line search global convergence.
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Local convergence zones or discontinuous lines in the Taklimakan Desert, Northwest China
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作者 Masatoshi YOSHINO Takashi ISHIYAMA Jun SUZUKI 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE 2010年第2期77-86,共10页
In order to study convergence zones or discontinuous lines formed locally in the Taklimakan Desert,we analyzed available MODIS images onboad TERRA or AQUA satellite for ten cases:29 March 2002,14 April 2002;2 January ... In order to study convergence zones or discontinuous lines formed locally in the Taklimakan Desert,we analyzed available MODIS images onboad TERRA or AQUA satellite for ten cases:29 March 2002,14 April 2002;2 January 2003;21 April 2003;26 March 2004;28 April 2004;30 January 2005;25 June 2005;3 December 2005;and 26 July 2006.We used weather maps published by the Japan Mete-orological Agency for the Asia and Pacific region at 500 hPa,700 hPa and 850 hPa,at 00Z and 12Z to analyze the meteorological conditions occurring in each case.We estimated the positions of air streams,convergence zones or discontinuous lines between them,and thermal conditions on the maps and con-firmed the presence of cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds through satellite images in particular.After a review of previous studies,this paper introduced the results of the present study.Closed warm areas in the Taklimakan Desert and on the Tibetan Plateau and local convergence zones or discontinuous lines in the Taklimakan Desert were discussed together with their diurnal changes,using composite maps of the ten cases.Along the long axis of the desert the convergence zones or discontinuous lines normally extend 70-80 km in a west-east direction,but are suspected to exceed 100 km in extreme cases.On the other hand,the convergence zones or discontinuous lines extending in a north-south direction on the southern fringe of the desert have a length of 40-60 km.The closed warm areas show clear diurnal changes,but they were not detected at the 500 hPa level.An example of a clear convergence zone running in a north-south direction on 26 July 2006 was presented in detail with corresponding satellite images. 展开更多
关键词 atmospheric circulation convergence zone discontinuous line satellite image Taklimakan Desert
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Global Convergence of an Extended Descent Algorithm without Line Search for Unconstrained Optimization
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作者 Cuiling Chen Liling Luo +1 位作者 Caihong Han Yu Chen 《Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics》 2018年第1期130-137,共8页
In this paper, we extend a descent algorithm without line search for solving unconstrained optimization problems. Under mild conditions, its global convergence is established. Further, we generalize the search directi... In this paper, we extend a descent algorithm without line search for solving unconstrained optimization problems. Under mild conditions, its global convergence is established. Further, we generalize the search direction to more general form, and also obtain the global convergence of corresponding algorithm. The numerical results illustrate that the new algorithm is effective. 展开更多
关键词 UNCONSTRAINED Optimization DESCENT Method line SEARCH Global convergence
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Several New Line Search Methods and Their Convergence
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作者 Zhenjun Shi Kimberly Kendricks +1 位作者 Zhiwei Xu Yongning Tang 《American Journal of Operations Research》 2013年第5期421-430,共10页
In this paper, we propose several new line search rules for solving unconstrained minimization problems. These new line search rules can extend the accepted scope of step sizes to a wider extent than the corresponding... In this paper, we propose several new line search rules for solving unconstrained minimization problems. These new line search rules can extend the accepted scope of step sizes to a wider extent than the corresponding original ones and give an adequate initial step size at each iteration. It is proved that the resulting line search algorithms have global convergence under some mild conditions. It is also proved that the search direction plays an important role in line search methods and that the step size approaches mainly guarantee global convergence in general cases. The convergence rate of these methods is also investigated. Some numerical results show that these new line search algorithms are effective in practical computation. 展开更多
关键词 UNCONSTRAINED MINIMIZATION line SEARCH Method Global convergence convergence RATE
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The global convergence of the non-quasi-Newton methods with non-monotone line search
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作者 焦宝聪 刘洪伟 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2006年第6期758-762,共5页
The non-quasi-Newton methods for unconstrained optimization was investigated. Non-monotone line search procedure is introduced, which is combined with the non-quasi-Newton family. Under the uniform convexity assumptio... The non-quasi-Newton methods for unconstrained optimization was investigated. Non-monotone line search procedure is introduced, which is combined with the non-quasi-Newton family. Under the uniform convexity assumption on objective function, the global convergence of the non-quasi-Newton family was proved. Numerical experiments showed that the non-monotone line search was more effective. 展开更多
关键词 凸函数 函数方程 牛顿 函数优化
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Convective Initiation by Topographically Induced Convergence Forcing over the Dabie Mountains on 24 June 2010 被引量:4
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作者 Qiwei WANG Ming XUE Zhemin TAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第10期1120-1136,共17页
The initiation of convective cells in the late morning of 24 June 2010 along the eastward extending ridge of the Dabie Mountains in the Anhui region, China, is studied through numerical simulations that include local ... The initiation of convective cells in the late morning of 24 June 2010 along the eastward extending ridge of the Dabie Mountains in the Anhui region, China, is studied through numerical simulations that include local data assimilation. A primary convergence line is found over the ridge of the Dabie Mountains, and along the ridge line several locally enhanced convergence centers preferentially initiate convection. Three processes responsible for creating the overall convergence pattern are identified. First, thermally-driven upslope winds induce convergence zones over the main mountain peaks along the ridge, which are shifted slightly downwind in location by the moderate low-level easterly flow found on the north side of a Mei-yu front. Second, flows around the main mountain peaks along the ridge create further convergence on the lee side of the peaks. Third, upslope winds develop along the roughly north-south oriented valleys on both sides of the ridge due to thermal and dynamic channeling effects, and create additional convergence between the peaks along the ridge. The superposition of the above convergence features creates the primary convergence line along the ridge line of the Dabie Mountains. Locally enhanced convergence centers on the primary line cause the initiation of the first convection cells along the ridge. These conclusions are supported by two sensitivity experiments in which the environmental wind (dynamic forcing) or radiative and land surface thermal forcing are removed, respectively. Overall, the thermal forcing effects are stronger than dynamic forcing given the relatively weak environmental flow. 展开更多
关键词 Dabie Mountains convective initiation low-level convergence line thermal forcing dynamic forcing
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Convergence Analysis on a Class of Nonmonotone Conjugate Gradient Methods without Sufficient Decrease Condition 被引量:1
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作者 DUShou-qiang CHENYuan-yuan 《Chinese Quarterly Journal of Mathematics》 CSCD 2004年第2期142-145,共4页
In [3] Liu et al. investigated global convergence of conjugate gradient methods.In that paper they allowed βk to be selected in a wider range and the global convergence of the corresponding algorithm without sufficie... In [3] Liu et al. investigated global convergence of conjugate gradient methods.In that paper they allowed βk to be selected in a wider range and the global convergence of the corresponding algorithm without sufficient decrease condition was proved. This paper investigates global convergence of nonmonotone conjugate gradient method under the same conditions. 展开更多
关键词 收敛 非线性规划 坡度法 几何规划
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Research on Narrowband Line Spectrum Noise Control Method Based on Nearest Neighbor Filter and BP Neural Network Feedback Mechanism 被引量:1
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作者 Shuiping Zhang Xi Liang +2 位作者 Lin Shi Lei Yan Jun Tang 《Sound & Vibration》 EI 2023年第1期29-44,共16页
Thefilter-x least mean square(FxLMS)algorithm is widely used in active noise control(ANC)systems.However,because the algorithm is a feedback control algorithm based on the minimization of the error signal variance to ... Thefilter-x least mean square(FxLMS)algorithm is widely used in active noise control(ANC)systems.However,because the algorithm is a feedback control algorithm based on the minimization of the error signal variance to update thefilter coefficients,it has a certain delay,usually has a slow convergence speed,and the system response time is long and easily affected by the learning rate leading to the lack of system stability,which often fails to achieve the desired control effect in practice.In this paper,we propose an active control algorithm with near-est-neighbor trap structure and neural network feedback mechanism to reduce the coefficient update time of the FxLMS algorithm and use the neural network feedback mechanism to realize the parameter update,which is called NNR-BPFxLMS algorithm.In the paper,the schematic diagram of the feedback control is given,and the performance of the algorithm is analyzed.Under various noise conditions,it is shown by simulation and experiment that the NNR-BPFxLMS algorithm has the following three advantages:in terms of performance,it has higher noise reduction under the same number of sampling points,i.e.,it has faster convergence speed,and by computer simulation and sound pipe experiment,for simple ideal line spectrum noise,compared with the convergence speed of NNR-BPFxLMS is improved by more than 95%compared with FxLMS algorithm,and the convergence speed of real noise is also improved by more than 70%.In terms of stability,NNR-BPFxLMS is insensitive to step size changes.In terms of tracking performance,its algorithm responds quickly to sudden changes in the noise spectrum and can cope with the complex control requirements of sudden changes in the noise spectrum. 展开更多
关键词 FxLMS NNR-BPFxLMS line spectrum noise BP neural network feedback convergence speed
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A Descent Gradient Method and Its Global Convergence
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作者 LIU Jin-kui 《Chinese Quarterly Journal of Mathematics》 CSCD 2014年第1期142-150,共9页
Y Liu and C Storey(1992)proposed the famous LS conjugate gradient method which has good numerical results.However,the LS method has very weak convergence under the Wolfe-type line search.In this paper,we give a new de... Y Liu and C Storey(1992)proposed the famous LS conjugate gradient method which has good numerical results.However,the LS method has very weak convergence under the Wolfe-type line search.In this paper,we give a new descent gradient method based on the LS method.It can guarantee the sufficient descent property at each iteration and the global convergence under the strong Wolfe line search.Finally,we also present extensive preliminary numerical experiments to show the efficiency of the proposed method by comparing with the famous PRP^+method. 展开更多
关键词 unconstrained optimization conjugate gradient method strong Wolfe line search sufficient descent property global convergence
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CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS ON A CLASS OF CONJUGATE GRADIENT METHODS WITHOUTSUFFICIENT DECREASE CONDITION 被引量:1
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作者 刘光辉 韩继业 +1 位作者 戚厚铎 徐中玲 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 1998年第1期11-16,共6页
Recently, Gilbert and Nocedal([3]) investigated global convergence of conjugate gradient methods related to Polak-Ribiere formular, they restricted beta(k) to non-negative value. [5] discussed the same problem as that... Recently, Gilbert and Nocedal([3]) investigated global convergence of conjugate gradient methods related to Polak-Ribiere formular, they restricted beta(k) to non-negative value. [5] discussed the same problem as that in [3] and relaxed beta(k) to be negative with the objective function being convex. This paper allows beta(k) to be selected in a wider range than [5]. Especially, the global convergence of the corresponding algorithm without sufficient decrease condition is proved. 展开更多
关键词 Polak-Ribiere conjugate gradient method strong Wolfe line search global convergence
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A MIXED SUPERLINEARLY CONVERGENT ALGORITHM WITH NONMONOTONE SEARCH FOR CONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATIONS
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作者 XuYifan WangWei 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2000年第2期211-219,共9页
In the paper, a new mixed algorithm combined with schemes of nonmonotone line search, the systems of linear equations for higher order modification and sequential quadratic programming for constrained optimizations is... In the paper, a new mixed algorithm combined with schemes of nonmonotone line search, the systems of linear equations for higher order modification and sequential quadratic programming for constrained optimizations is presented. Under some weaker assumptions,without strict complementary condition, the algorithm is globally and superlinearly convergent. 展开更多
关键词 Strict complementary condition nonmonotone line search constrained optimization convergence.
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金沙江下游峡谷一次飑线和下击暴流的机理分析
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作者 王汉涛 尹晔 +4 位作者 白爱娟 刘炙明 张昊楠 刘皓 郑自君 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期398-410,共13页
产生极端灾害性大风的飑线对水电站安全至关重要。本文以2016年6月4日金沙江下游白鹤滩水电站峡谷产生13级大风的飑线为例,从天气系统和中小尺度上讨论其形成机制。获得以下结论:(1)飑线到达前,受飑前低压影响水电站气压稳降了9 hPa,气... 产生极端灾害性大风的飑线对水电站安全至关重要。本文以2016年6月4日金沙江下游白鹤滩水电站峡谷产生13级大风的飑线为例,从天气系统和中小尺度上讨论其形成机制。获得以下结论:(1)飑线到达前,受飑前低压影响水电站气压稳降了9 hPa,气温上升超过14℃。飑线到达时受雷暴高压作用1 h内气压陡升10 hPa,气温骤降超过10℃,相对湿度陡增到70%,伴随短时降水发生。飑线过境后以上要素恢复到原值。(2)天气尺度环流的分析发现,飑线当天水电站在高空急流入口右侧辐散和低空西南涡南侧切变辐合的耦合作用下,次级环流的上升运动为飑线深对流提供了环境背景。飑线前中高层干冷平流叠加在中低层暖湿平流上,加上低空强烈升温增加了气温直减率,积累了对流发展的静力和对流不稳定,为飑线长生命提供了有利环境条件。垂直风速显示峡谷的上空下沉运动增强了动量下传,促进飑线前侧的抬升,正反馈作用下促进风暴稳定发展。(3)昭通雷达探测表明,飑线中30 dBZ以上多单体紧密聚合成带状回波,镶嵌着超过10 km高度柱状发展的50 dBZ以上强回波核。径向速度场上,垂直于峡谷的中尺度辐合线与带状强回波吻合,是飑线的触发机制,对应深厚的中层径向辐合MARC(Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence)特征。在云体剖面结构上,飑线前强上升运动形成穹窿,飑线到达时高悬的回波核快速下降,形成下击暴流,并诱发顺着河谷的新单体生成,改变了飑线走向,形成顺着的峡谷的极端大风。 展开更多
关键词 飑线 下击暴流 峡谷地形 中层径向辐合
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华北局地大暴雨过程中多个β中尺度对流系统发生发展对比分析
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作者 徐姝 易笑园 +2 位作者 熊明明 孙密娜 林晓萌 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期181-194,共14页
利用常规地面高空观测、多普勒雷达、风廓线、VDRAS(Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System)和NCEP再分析资料,对2018年8月5—6日副热带高压(以下简称副高)控制下华北一次局地大暴雨过程中多个β中尺度对流系统触发和发展机制进行... 利用常规地面高空观测、多普勒雷达、风廓线、VDRAS(Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System)和NCEP再分析资料,对2018年8月5—6日副热带高压(以下简称副高)控制下华北一次局地大暴雨过程中多个β中尺度对流系统触发和发展机制进行了分析。结果表明:这次大暴雨发生在副高控制下,处于高温、高湿气团中,大气层结极不稳定。暴雨由多个相继发展的中尺度对流系统造成,分别是太行山迎风坡上西南—东北向、华北平原地区保定一带南北向、保定至霸州附近西南—东北向和以雄安新区为中心东西向原地生消的准静止MCS-Ⅰ、MCS-Ⅱ、MCS-Ⅲ和MCS-Ⅳ,均属于β中尺度。在相似的环境中,不同中尺度对流系统触发机制有较大差异,太行山迎风坡上的MCS-Ⅰ是由近地层偏东暖湿气流在迎风坡与山风形成的辐合抬升触发;由辐射差异和前期强降水形成的局地冷池受MCS-Ⅰ影响再次加强后,其出流与环境风形成的两条地面辐合线分别触发了MCS-Ⅱ和MCS-Ⅲ,并组织对流沿辐合线呈带状发展;而超低空偏东风增强叠加冷池出流在地形抬升作用下促使沿山暖湿气团进一步抬升,使得原本消亡的MCS-Ⅰ再次重建。MCS-Ⅳ发展最旺盛、持续时间最长,是大暴雨中心的直接制造者,一方面MCS-Ⅱ与MCS-Ⅲ、MCS-Ⅰ与MCS-Ⅳ的两次合并过程,是MCS-Ⅳ增强、持久的重要原因;另一方面边界层偏东风急流为MCS-Ⅳ的发展提供了水汽和不稳定能量等有利条件,同时推动其左前方中尺度涡旋的发展,导致MCS-Ⅳ所在地的气旋性涡度大大增加,加强了以急流轴为中心的垂直次级环流发展,造成MCS-Ⅳ的发展维持,形成华北平原地区以雄安新区为中心的东西向大暴雨带。 展开更多
关键词 准静止中尺度对流系统 对流单体合并 冷池 地面辐合线 中尺度边界层急流 中尺度涡旋
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一种近似BFGS的自适应双参数共轭梯度法
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作者 李向利 莫元健 梅建平 《应用数学》 北大核心 2024年第1期89-99,共11页
为了更加有效的求解大规模无约束优化问题,本文基于自调比无记忆BFGS拟牛顿法,提出一个自适应双参数共轭梯度法,设计的搜索方向满足充分下降性,在一般假设和标准Wolfe线搜索准则下,证明该方法具有全局收敛性,数值实验结果证明提出的新... 为了更加有效的求解大规模无约束优化问题,本文基于自调比无记忆BFGS拟牛顿法,提出一个自适应双参数共轭梯度法,设计的搜索方向满足充分下降性,在一般假设和标准Wolfe线搜索准则下,证明该方法具有全局收敛性,数值实验结果证明提出的新算法是有效的. 展开更多
关键词 大规模无约束优化 共轭梯度法 WOLFE线搜索 全局收敛性
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地面堆载下盾构隧道结构韧性演化规律研究 被引量:1
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作者 朱旻 陈湘生 +2 位作者 夏长青 王琛 包小华 《岩土工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期35-44,共10页
韧性理论的提出和发展为盾构隧道结构性能评估提供了新思路。在提出考虑历史最大变形的衬砌性能指标基础上,建立包含管片、接头和非线性土弹簧的精细化三维有限元分析模型,研究了地面堆卸载作用下,不同埋深盾构隧道结构响应特征和韧性... 韧性理论的提出和发展为盾构隧道结构性能评估提供了新思路。在提出考虑历史最大变形的衬砌性能指标基础上,建立包含管片、接头和非线性土弹簧的精细化三维有限元分析模型,研究了地面堆卸载作用下,不同埋深盾构隧道结构响应特征和韧性演化规律。结果表明:地面堆载下拱顶、拱底内弧面受拉,拱腰外弧面受拉,受错缝拼装影响,结构内力和损伤集中于边环纵缝相邻的中环管片处;卸载阶段隧道水平收敛减小,完全卸载后的残余变形随堆载量增加而增大,相同水平收敛情况下浅埋隧道卸载后变形恢复率大;隧道结构韧性随着水平收敛的增大快速降低,而缩短响应时间、提高修复措施效率可以提升隧道结构韧性;将隧道结构韧性分为4个等级,当结构进入极低韧性阶段时,应采取更加高效快速的综合修复方案,同时避免造成结构的二次损伤。 展开更多
关键词 盾构隧道 韧性 地面堆载 衬砌性能 水平收敛
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纤维增强注塑熔接线强度预测模型与实验研究
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作者 姜曙 周俊 +4 位作者 王华欣 翟孟雷 黄明 刘春太 石程 《工程塑料应用》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期81-87,共7页
熔接线是影响注塑制品强度的关键因素之一,而目前以汇合角预测熔接线强度的力学模型并没有体现注塑工艺的影响。为了科学定量地认识熔接线区域强度的变化规律,准确预测熔接线力学性能,首先对带扇形孔的制品进行注塑模拟分析,研究了注塑... 熔接线是影响注塑制品强度的关键因素之一,而目前以汇合角预测熔接线强度的力学模型并没有体现注塑工艺的影响。为了科学定量地认识熔接线区域强度的变化规律,准确预测熔接线力学性能,首先对带扇形孔的制品进行注塑模拟分析,研究了注塑温度、注射速率以及保压压力对熔接线汇合角的影响,结果显示注塑温度、保压压力不是通过改变熔体前沿汇合角来影响熔接线强度。基于此,为全面体现注塑工艺、汇合角对熔接线强度的影响,在现有模型基础上通过引入注塑工艺影响因子重新构造了体现注塑工艺、汇合角对熔接线区域强度影响的预测模型。设计并制造了用于成型扇形孔制品的注射模具,开展了不同工艺条件下30%长玻纤增强聚丙烯扇形孔制品注塑实验,根据实验结果推导出了体现注塑温度和保压压力影响的注塑工艺影响因子数学表达式,利用实验数据拟合确定了模型中的相关参数,并对模型进行了回归分析。结果表明,新构建的强度预测模型可以准确计算不同注塑温度、保压压力下熔接线不同位置的强度。 展开更多
关键词 熔接线 汇合角 熔接线强度 纤维增强 注塑成型
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广东“18.8”季风槽极端降水事件对流尺度集合预报分析
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作者 陈训来 朱科锋 +4 位作者 王德立 陈元昭 王蕊 杨楠 张华龙 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期11-22,共12页
受季风槽影响,2018年8月30—31日华南地区出现一次极端暴雨过程,单日站点累计降水量达1056.7 mm,刷新了广东有历史纪录以来新的极值。对于此次极端降水事件,常用的业务模式包括欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(ECMWF)、日本气象厅谱模式(J... 受季风槽影响,2018年8月30—31日华南地区出现一次极端暴雨过程,单日站点累计降水量达1056.7 mm,刷新了广东有历史纪录以来新的极值。对于此次极端降水事件,常用的业务模式包括欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(ECMWF)、日本气象厅谱模式(JMA)和中国气象局广东快速更新同化数值预报系统(CMA-GD),都低估了降水强度。利用深圳市气象局业务对流尺度集合预报系统分析了此次特大暴雨过程,结果表明:对流尺度集合预报系统对本次特大暴雨过程具有比较好的预报能力,概率匹配平均最大雨量达348.7 mm·(24 h)^(-1),集合平均的强降水中心和观测基本一致,观测极值附近区域发生大暴雨(≥150 mm)概率最大值达到80%。选取了较“好”和较“差”集合成员预报进行对比分析,发现较“好”成员预报的强降水中心位置和观测基本一致,而较“差”成员预报的降水中心位置则偏向福建地区。较“好”成员预报出莲花山南侧地面中尺度辐合线较长时间的维持和缓慢移动,导致强降水雨团在莲花山脉附近不断地触发和维持,同时地形的阻挡作用使得对流系统在地形附近区域持续维持,造成了罕见的特大暴雨;而较“差”成员辐合区位于莲花山以北,对流形成后向东、向北移动,最终导致强降水预报位置偏向福建地区。 展开更多
关键词 季风槽 极端降水 集合预报 地面辐合线
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