Bulletins of China's National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relat...Bulletins of China's National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km^2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km^2, 4000 km^2, 5300 km^2 and 7200 km^2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.展开更多
The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary. This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response ...The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary. This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response along the tidal reaches in the Yangtze Estuary, as well as the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response, due to the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Based on the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data obtained during the period 1993-2005, a stochastic dynamic analysis was performed and a forecast model was run to predict the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Two- dimensional hydrodynamic numerical models downscaling from the East China Sea to estuarine areas were implemented to analyze the rise of tidal level along the tidal reaches. In response to the sea-level rise, the tidal wave characteristics change slightly in nearshore areas outside the estuaries, involving the tidal range and the duration of flood and ebb tide. The results show that the rise of tidal level in the tidal reaches due to the sea-level rise has upstream decreasing trends. The step between the stations of Zhangjiagang and Shiyiwei divides the tidal reaches into two parts, in which the tidal level response declines slightly. The rise of tidal level is 1-2.5 mm/a in the upper part, and 4-6 mm/a in the lower part. The stations of Jiangyin and Yanglin, as an example of the upper part and the lower part respectively, are extracted to analyze the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response to the sea-level rise. The relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge can be fitted well with a quadratic fimction in the upper part. However, the relation is too complicated to be fitted in the lower part because of the tide dominance. For comparison purposes, hourly tidal level observations at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin during the period 1993-2009 are adopted. In order to uniform the influence of upstream discharge on tidal level for a certain day each year, the hourly tidal level observations are corrected by the correlation between the increment of tidal level and the increment of daily mean upstream discharge. The rise of annual mean tidal level is evaluated. The resulting rise of tidal level at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin is 3.0 mm/a and 6.6 mm/a respectively, close to the rise of 5 mm/a according to the proposed relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge.展开更多
As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth...As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.展开更多
As to sea level rise (SLR) contribution, melting and setting afloat make no difference for land based ice. Melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) into water is impossible in the upcoming several centuries, whereas...As to sea level rise (SLR) contribution, melting and setting afloat make no difference for land based ice. Melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) into water is impossible in the upcoming several centuries, whereas breaking and partially afloat is likely as long as sea waters find a pathway to the bottom of those ice sectors with basal elevation below sea level. In this sense WAIS may be disintegrated in a future warming climate. We reassess the potential contribution to eustatic sea level from a collapse of WAIS and find that previous assessments have overlooked a contributor: slope instability after the cementing ice is removed. Over loading ice has a buttressing effect on slope movements the same way ice shelves hinder the flow of non-floating coastal ice. A sophisticated landslide model estimates a 9-mm eustatic SLR contribution from subsequent landslides.展开更多
The United States (U.S.) Gulf Coast is a prominent global energy hub with a set of highly integrated critical energy infrastructure that rivals, if not surpasses, any comparable set of infrastructure anywhere in the w...The United States (U.S.) Gulf Coast is a prominent global energy hub with a set of highly integrated critical energy infrastructure that rivals, if not surpasses, any comparable set of infrastructure anywhere in the world. Past extreme weather events in the region have led to critical energy infrastructure disruptions with national and global implications. Future sea-level rise (SLR), coupled with other natural hazards, will lead to a significant increase in energy infrastructure damage exposure. This research assesses coastal energy infrastructure that is at risk from various fixed SLR outcomes and scenarios. The results indicate that natural gas processing plants that treat and process natural gas before moving it into the interstate natural gas transmission system may be particularly vulnerable to inundation than other forms of critical energy infrastructure. Under certain SLR assumptions, as much as six Bcfd (eight percent of all U.S. natural gas processing capacity) could be inundated. More extreme SLR exposure assumptions result in greater levels of energy infrastructure capacity exposure including as much as 39 percent of all U.S. refining capacity based on current operating levels. This research and its results show that while fossil fuel industries are often referenced as part of the climate change problem, these industries will likely be more than proportionally exposed to the negative impacts of various climate change outcomes relative to other industrial sectors of the U.S. economy. This has important implications for the U.S. and global energy supplies and costs, as well as for the U.S. regional economies reliant on coastal energy infrastructure and its supporting industries.展开更多
This paper concerns two important environmental problems in China's coastal zone, i.e.,Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Groundwater Table Decline, as the response to climatic chanes/globalwarming due to greenhouse effect....This paper concerns two important environmental problems in China's coastal zone, i.e.,Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Groundwater Table Decline, as the response to climatic chanes/globalwarming due to greenhouse effect. on the basis of possible twacts of these two problems on theregional natural, environmental and social systems, some response strategies were advised.展开更多
Two major causes of global sea level rise such as thermal expansion of the oceans and the loss of landbased ice for increased melting have been claimed by some researchers and recognized by the IPCC.However, other cli...Two major causes of global sea level rise such as thermal expansion of the oceans and the loss of landbased ice for increased melting have been claimed by some researchers and recognized by the IPCC.However, other climate threat investigators revealed that atmosphere-ocean modeling is an imperfect representation, paleo-data consist of proxy climate information with ambiguities, and modern observations are limited in scope and accuracy. It is revealed that global warming and polar ice-melt although a reality would not contribute to any sea level rise. Floating-ice of the polar region on melting would reoccupy same displaced volume by floating ice-sheets. Land-ice cover in the polar region on melting can reduce load from the crust to activate elastic rebound that would raise land for its isostatic equilibrium.Such characteristics would not contribute to sea level rise. Equatorial bulge, polar flattening, elevation difference of the spheroidal surface between equator and pole with lower in the pole, strong gravity attraction of the polar region and week gravity attraction of the equatorial region, all these phenomena would play dominant role in preventing sea level rise. Palaeo-sea level rise and fall in macro-scale(10-100 m or so) were related to marine transgression and regression in addition to other geologic events like converging and diverging plate tectonics, orogenic uplift of the collision margin, basin subsidence of the extensional crust, volcanic activities in the oceanic region, prograding delta buildup, ocean floor height change and sub-marine mass avalanche. This study also reveals that geophysical shape, gravity attraction and the centrifugal force of spinning and rotation of the earth would continue acting against sea level rise.展开更多
The evolution of the natural and pristine Mediterranean coastline Port aux Princes-Sidi Daoued(Gulf of Tunis,NE-Tunisia) is studied during the period of 1887–2010 on the basis of an ancient minute of bathymetry(1887)...The evolution of the natural and pristine Mediterranean coastline Port aux Princes-Sidi Daoued(Gulf of Tunis,NE-Tunisia) is studied during the period of 1887–2010 on the basis of an ancient minute of bathymetry(1887) and aerial photographs treated by numerical photogrammetric methods. Morphological changes of the coastline shows a general retreat despite the absence of the various anthropogenic actions. Adding to the drift currents and the currents of high energy that are generated by the N-W dominant waves along steeply sub-marine funds, the erosion is mainly due to the sea level rise which increased since the beginning of the 2000 s. The Port aux PrincesSidi Daoued coastline works as a single littoral cell limited by Jbel Korbous to the SW and the fishing harbor of Sidi Daoued to the N-E.展开更多
As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the trans...As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.展开更多
High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a b...High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a basis for scientific assessment of the evolutionary trend of coral reefs in the SCS.Although sporadic studies have been performed around Hainan Island in the northern SCS,the reconstructed sea level presents different values or is controversial because the indicative meaning of the sea-level indicators were neither quantified nor uniform criteria.Here,we determined the quantitative relationship between modern living coral and sea level by measuring the top surfaces of 27 live Porites corals from the inner reef flat along the east coast of Hainan Island and assessed the accuracy of results obtained using coral as sea-level indicators.Additionally,three in situ fossil Porites corals were analyzed based on elevation measurements,digital X-ray radiography,and U-Th dating.The survey results showed that the indicative meanings for the modern live Porites corals is(146.09±8.35)cm below the mean tide level(MTL).It suggested that their upward growth limit is constrained by the sea level,and the lowest low water is the highest level of survival for the modern live Porites corals.Based on the newly defined indicative meanings,6 new sea-level index points(SLIPs)were obtained and 19 published SLIPs were recalculated.Those SLIPs indicated a relative sea level fluctuation between(227.7±9.8)cm to(154.88±9.8)cm MTL between(5393±25)cal a BP and(3390±12)cal a BP,providing evidences of the Mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the northern SCS.Besides that,our analysis demonstrated that different sea-level histories may be produced based on different indicative meanings or criteria.The dataset of 276 coral U-Th ages indicates that coral reef development in the northern SCS comprised the initial development,boom growth,decline,and flourishing development again.A comparison with regional records indicated that synergistic effects of climatic and environmental factors were involved in the development of coral reefs in the northern SCS.Thus,the cessation of coral reef development during the Holocene in the northern SCS was probably associated with the dry and cold climate in South China,as reflected in the synchronous weakening of the ENSO and East Asian summer monsoon induced by the reduction of the 65°N summer insolation,which forced the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.展开更多
The development of vehicle integrated photovoltaics-powered electric vehicles (VIPV-EV) significantly reduces CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from the transport sector to realize a decarbonized society. Although ...The development of vehicle integrated photovoltaics-powered electric vehicles (VIPV-EV) significantly reduces CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from the transport sector to realize a decarbonized society. Although long-distance driving of VIPV-EV without electricity charging is expected in sunny regions, driving distance of VIPV-EV is affected by climate conditions such as solar irradiation and temperature rise of PV modules. In this paper, detailed analytical results for effects of climate conditions such as solar irradiation and temperature rise of PV modules upon driving distance of the VIPV-EV were presented by using test data for Toyota Prius and Nissan Van demonstration cars installed with high-efficiency InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs 3-junction solar cell modules with a module efficiency of more than 30%. The temperature rise of some PV modules studied in this study was shown to be expressed by some coefficients related to solar irradiation, wind speed and radiative cooling. The potential of VIPV-EV to be deployed in 10 major cities was also analyzed. Although sunshine cities such as Phoenix show the high reduction ratio of driving range with 17% due to temperature rise of VIPV modules, populous cities such as Tokyo show low reduction ratio of 9%. It was also shown in this paper that the difference between the driving distance of VIPV-EV driving in the morning and the afternoon is due to PV modules’ radiative cooling. In addition, the importance of heat dissipation of PV modules and the development of high-efficiency PV modules with better temperature coefficients was suggested in order to expand driving range of VIPV-EV. The effects of air-conditioner usage and partial shading in addition to the effects of temperature rise of VIPV modules were suggested as the other power losses of VIPV-EV.展开更多
Flow regime is a key driver of invasive aquatic organisms,and the invasiveness of mangrove species may be simultaneously attributed to plant traits and flowing hydrological conditions at the estuary scale.We focused o...Flow regime is a key driver of invasive aquatic organisms,and the invasiveness of mangrove species may be simultaneously attributed to plant traits and flowing hydrological conditions at the estuary scale.We focused on hydrological and topographic conditions for a non-native mangrove species,Sonneratia apetala,in Zhangjiang Estuary of Fujian,China.A hydrological model and a micro-topographic model were used to predict its dispersal and early establishment,and field surveys and simulated experiments were integrated to estimate its future dispersal patterns.The mesohaline mudflat with a salinity of 8~10 PSU at the mangrove seaward edge was the most likely colonization area for S.apetala under current conditions.The south-western region of the estuary with native mangroves was the most likely area for its colonization according to the unstructured-grid finite-volume community ocean model(FVCOM)in September,when the largest tidal currents within a year and the maximum fruit maturity period occur.Approximately 42%of the mudflats throughout the whole estuary may be available for seedling establishment under the future sea-level rise RCP 4.5 scenarios compared with 44%for current establishment;however,the RCP 8.5 scenarios would significantly decrease seedling establishment by 2100 due to serious tidal inundation according to the micro-topographical model.展开更多
Sea-level rise is a long-term,intractable problem during which costly,large-scale inundation could occur in many countries;hence,tourismdevelopment should take this matter into account because ecology and biodiversity...Sea-level rise is a long-term,intractable problem during which costly,large-scale inundation could occur in many countries;hence,tourismdevelopment should take this matter into account because ecology and biodiversity are the fundamentals underpinning tourism performance.This study conceptualizes an economic mechanism of the potential effects of sea-level rise on tourism development based on projected impactsfor the 2001e2100 period.Data for 48 developing countries across Africa,Asia,and South America are analyzed.The theoretical frameworkproposes two hypotheses to determine the extent of contradiction between awareness and destruction in relation to environmental protection fortourism development.From the panel data regression results,although destructive effects are bound to dominate the entire 21st century,awareness is latent and has the potential to reverse the destructive outcomes.With evidence from essential economic elements,this study givesnew insights into how severe the impacts of sea-level rise on tourism could be if shared values and adaptation measures to mitigate rising sealevel are not substantively promoted around the globe.The new findings show a 0.95 standard-deviation decrease in tourism performancefollowing a 1 standard-deviation increase in the economic loss related sea-level rise.Hence,in the main conclusions,we highlight that theprojected effect of inundation-related deterioration on a country's tourism sector appears to be approximately on par with the costs of inundationsto its economic growth.展开更多
Introduction:Marshes contribute to habitat and water quality in estuaries and coastal bays.Their importance to continued ecosystem functioning has led to concerns about their persistence.Outcomes:Concurrent with sea-l...Introduction:Marshes contribute to habitat and water quality in estuaries and coastal bays.Their importance to continued ecosystem functioning has led to concerns about their persistence.Outcomes:Concurrent with sea-level rise,marshes are eroding and appear to be disappearing through ponding in their interior;in addition,in many places,they are being replaced with shoreline stabilization structures.We examined the changes in marsh extent over the past 40 years within a subestuary of Chesapeake Bay,the largest estuary in the United States,to better understand the effects of sea-level rise and human pressure on marsh coverage.Discussion:Approximately 30 years ago,an inventory of York River estuary marshes documented the historic extent of marshes.Marshes were resurveyed in 2010 to examine shifts in tidal marsh extent and distribution.Marsh change varied spatially along the estuary,with watershed changes between a 32%loss and an 11%gain in marsh area.Loss of marsh was apparent in high energy sections of the estuary while there was marsh gain in the upper/riverine section of the estuary and where forested hummocks on marsh islands have become inundated.Marshes showed little change in the small tributary creeks,except in the creeks dominated by fringing marshes and high shoreline development.Conclusions:Differential resilience to sea-level rise and spatial variations in erosion,sediment supply,and human development have resulted in spatially variable changes in specific marsh extents and are predicted to lead to a redistribution of marshes along the estuarine gradient,with consequences for their unique communities.展开更多
The absolute and relative rates of rise of the sea level are computed for the New York City area by coupling global positioning system records of the position of fixed domes nearby tide gauges,with the tide gauges’re...The absolute and relative rates of rise of the sea level are computed for the New York City area by coupling global positioning system records of the position of fixed domes nearby tide gauges,with the tide gauges’records.Two tide gauges are considered,one long-term trend,more reliable,The Battery,in lower Manhattan,and one shorter,less reliable,Sandy Hook,in New Jersey.The relative rates of rise of the sea level are+2.851 and+4.076 mm/yr.The subsidence rates are-2.151 and-3.076 mm/yr.The absolute rates of rise of the sea level are+0.7 and+1.0 mm/yr.The relative sea-level acceleration,reliable only in The Battery,is about+0.008 mm/yr².This acceleration is about the same as the world average long-term trend tide gauge,as well as the average long-term trend tide gauge of the East Coast of North America.The absolute rate of rise of the sea level by 2050 in the lower Manhattan area will be likely less than 30 mm,and the absolute rate of rise of the sea level by 2100 likely less than 80 mm.The relative rate of rise of the sea level by 2050 in the Manhattan area will be likely 85 mm,and the relative rate of rise of the sea level by 2100 likely 228 mm,because of the overwhelming subsidence contribution.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the projects of National Science Foundation of China （41706099, 51779228, 51379190, 41676085）, and the Science and Technology Plans of Zhejiang province （2015F50011, 2016F50017）. The authors acknowledged the anonymous reviewers＇ comments to improve this paper.
文摘一张稠密的人口和很快发展中的经济描绘的长江三角洲对海平面的上升高度脆弱。从中国海洋的信息网络和浙江的数据省的水文学局被用来分析海平面的上升。在三角洲的海平面的上升的率是 2.4 ? 公里每在 1981-2015 的年。年度在在三角洲的南方翅膀的 Daishan， Dinghai，和 Dongtou 车站海平面是 4.3， 3.1，和 5 ? 公里每年分别地在一样的时期上。在每个车站的 10 年的平均结果也显示海平面的上升的一个可察觉的趋势。海平面的上升被贡献加强的侵蚀的一个更大的比例，在三角洲从 3% ～ 14%。同时，潮汐的水平的 100 年的回来时期在 Dongtou 和 Dinghai 车站减少了到 50 年的等级。而且，在 Yanguan 的潮汐的讨厌的人的到达时间是 4 ? 在 0.145 的海平面的上升中更早的 min ? m 比 0 的 ? m。在表面和底部层的潮汐的讨厌的人和速度的高度在海平面的上升中有增加。高、低的潮层次的最大的增加是 0.122 ? m 并且 0.016 ? m 当最大值在表面和底部速度增加时，层是 0.07 ? m ? s <sup>1</sup> 并且 0.05 ? m ? s <sup>1</sup>, 分别地。海平面的上升将引起防波堤的损坏，因此，构造防波堤的设计标准应该采用高水平在长江三角洲和它的南方翅膀最小化联系风险。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41476074)China Geological Survey Program (121201006000182401).
文摘Bulletins of China's National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km^2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km^2, 4000 km^2, 5300 km^2 and 7200 km^2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.
基金supported by the State Key Development Program of Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2010CB429001)the Special Fund of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (Grant No. 2009586812)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (Coastal Development Conservancy) (PAPD)
文摘The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary. This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response along the tidal reaches in the Yangtze Estuary, as well as the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response, due to the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Based on the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data obtained during the period 1993-2005, a stochastic dynamic analysis was performed and a forecast model was run to predict the sea-level rise of the East China Sea. Two- dimensional hydrodynamic numerical models downscaling from the East China Sea to estuarine areas were implemented to analyze the rise of tidal level along the tidal reaches. In response to the sea-level rise, the tidal wave characteristics change slightly in nearshore areas outside the estuaries, involving the tidal range and the duration of flood and ebb tide. The results show that the rise of tidal level in the tidal reaches due to the sea-level rise has upstream decreasing trends. The step between the stations of Zhangjiagang and Shiyiwei divides the tidal reaches into two parts, in which the tidal level response declines slightly. The rise of tidal level is 1-2.5 mm/a in the upper part, and 4-6 mm/a in the lower part. The stations of Jiangyin and Yanglin, as an example of the upper part and the lower part respectively, are extracted to analyze the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response to the sea-level rise. The relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge can be fitted well with a quadratic fimction in the upper part. However, the relation is too complicated to be fitted in the lower part because of the tide dominance. For comparison purposes, hourly tidal level observations at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin during the period 1993-2009 are adopted. In order to uniform the influence of upstream discharge on tidal level for a certain day each year, the hourly tidal level observations are corrected by the correlation between the increment of tidal level and the increment of daily mean upstream discharge. The rise of annual mean tidal level is evaluated. The resulting rise of tidal level at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin is 3.0 mm/a and 6.6 mm/a respectively, close to the rise of 5 mm/a according to the proposed relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge.
文摘As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.
文摘As to sea level rise (SLR) contribution, melting and setting afloat make no difference for land based ice. Melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) into water is impossible in the upcoming several centuries, whereas breaking and partially afloat is likely as long as sea waters find a pathway to the bottom of those ice sectors with basal elevation below sea level. In this sense WAIS may be disintegrated in a future warming climate. We reassess the potential contribution to eustatic sea level from a collapse of WAIS and find that previous assessments have overlooked a contributor: slope instability after the cementing ice is removed. Over loading ice has a buttressing effect on slope movements the same way ice shelves hinder the flow of non-floating coastal ice. A sophisticated landslide model estimates a 9-mm eustatic SLR contribution from subsequent landslides.
文摘The United States (U.S.) Gulf Coast is a prominent global energy hub with a set of highly integrated critical energy infrastructure that rivals, if not surpasses, any comparable set of infrastructure anywhere in the world. Past extreme weather events in the region have led to critical energy infrastructure disruptions with national and global implications. Future sea-level rise (SLR), coupled with other natural hazards, will lead to a significant increase in energy infrastructure damage exposure. This research assesses coastal energy infrastructure that is at risk from various fixed SLR outcomes and scenarios. The results indicate that natural gas processing plants that treat and process natural gas before moving it into the interstate natural gas transmission system may be particularly vulnerable to inundation than other forms of critical energy infrastructure. Under certain SLR assumptions, as much as six Bcfd (eight percent of all U.S. natural gas processing capacity) could be inundated. More extreme SLR exposure assumptions result in greater levels of energy infrastructure capacity exposure including as much as 39 percent of all U.S. refining capacity based on current operating levels. This research and its results show that while fossil fuel industries are often referenced as part of the climate change problem, these industries will likely be more than proportionally exposed to the negative impacts of various climate change outcomes relative to other industrial sectors of the U.S. economy. This has important implications for the U.S. and global energy supplies and costs, as well as for the U.S. regional economies reliant on coastal energy infrastructure and its supporting industries.
文摘This paper concerns two important environmental problems in China's coastal zone, i.e.,Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Groundwater Table Decline, as the response to climatic chanes/globalwarming due to greenhouse effect. on the basis of possible twacts of these two problems on theregional natural, environmental and social systems, some response strategies were advised.
文摘Two major causes of global sea level rise such as thermal expansion of the oceans and the loss of landbased ice for increased melting have been claimed by some researchers and recognized by the IPCC.However, other climate threat investigators revealed that atmosphere-ocean modeling is an imperfect representation, paleo-data consist of proxy climate information with ambiguities, and modern observations are limited in scope and accuracy. It is revealed that global warming and polar ice-melt although a reality would not contribute to any sea level rise. Floating-ice of the polar region on melting would reoccupy same displaced volume by floating ice-sheets. Land-ice cover in the polar region on melting can reduce load from the crust to activate elastic rebound that would raise land for its isostatic equilibrium.Such characteristics would not contribute to sea level rise. Equatorial bulge, polar flattening, elevation difference of the spheroidal surface between equator and pole with lower in the pole, strong gravity attraction of the polar region and week gravity attraction of the equatorial region, all these phenomena would play dominant role in preventing sea level rise. Palaeo-sea level rise and fall in macro-scale(10-100 m or so) were related to marine transgression and regression in addition to other geologic events like converging and diverging plate tectonics, orogenic uplift of the collision margin, basin subsidence of the extensional crust, volcanic activities in the oceanic region, prograding delta buildup, ocean floor height change and sub-marine mass avalanche. This study also reveals that geophysical shape, gravity attraction and the centrifugal force of spinning and rotation of the earth would continue acting against sea level rise.
文摘The evolution of the natural and pristine Mediterranean coastline Port aux Princes-Sidi Daoued(Gulf of Tunis,NE-Tunisia) is studied during the period of 1887–2010 on the basis of an ancient minute of bathymetry(1887) and aerial photographs treated by numerical photogrammetric methods. Morphological changes of the coastline shows a general retreat despite the absence of the various anthropogenic actions. Adding to the drift currents and the currents of high energy that are generated by the N-W dominant waves along steeply sub-marine funds, the erosion is mainly due to the sea level rise which increased since the beginning of the 2000 s. The Port aux PrincesSidi Daoued coastline works as a single littoral cell limited by Jbel Korbous to the SW and the fishing harbor of Sidi Daoued to the N-E.
文摘As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42366002 and 41702182the National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2017YFA0603300the Guangxi Scientific Projects under contract No.2018GXNSFAA281293。
文摘High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a basis for scientific assessment of the evolutionary trend of coral reefs in the SCS.Although sporadic studies have been performed around Hainan Island in the northern SCS,the reconstructed sea level presents different values or is controversial because the indicative meaning of the sea-level indicators were neither quantified nor uniform criteria.Here,we determined the quantitative relationship between modern living coral and sea level by measuring the top surfaces of 27 live Porites corals from the inner reef flat along the east coast of Hainan Island and assessed the accuracy of results obtained using coral as sea-level indicators.Additionally,three in situ fossil Porites corals were analyzed based on elevation measurements,digital X-ray radiography,and U-Th dating.The survey results showed that the indicative meanings for the modern live Porites corals is(146.09±8.35)cm below the mean tide level(MTL).It suggested that their upward growth limit is constrained by the sea level,and the lowest low water is the highest level of survival for the modern live Porites corals.Based on the newly defined indicative meanings,6 new sea-level index points(SLIPs)were obtained and 19 published SLIPs were recalculated.Those SLIPs indicated a relative sea level fluctuation between(227.7±9.8)cm to(154.88±9.8)cm MTL between(5393±25)cal a BP and(3390±12)cal a BP,providing evidences of the Mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the northern SCS.Besides that,our analysis demonstrated that different sea-level histories may be produced based on different indicative meanings or criteria.The dataset of 276 coral U-Th ages indicates that coral reef development in the northern SCS comprised the initial development,boom growth,decline,and flourishing development again.A comparison with regional records indicated that synergistic effects of climatic and environmental factors were involved in the development of coral reefs in the northern SCS.Thus,the cessation of coral reef development during the Holocene in the northern SCS was probably associated with the dry and cold climate in South China,as reflected in the synchronous weakening of the ENSO and East Asian summer monsoon induced by the reduction of the 65°N summer insolation,which forced the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
文摘The development of vehicle integrated photovoltaics-powered electric vehicles (VIPV-EV) significantly reduces CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from the transport sector to realize a decarbonized society. Although long-distance driving of VIPV-EV without electricity charging is expected in sunny regions, driving distance of VIPV-EV is affected by climate conditions such as solar irradiation and temperature rise of PV modules. In this paper, detailed analytical results for effects of climate conditions such as solar irradiation and temperature rise of PV modules upon driving distance of the VIPV-EV were presented by using test data for Toyota Prius and Nissan Van demonstration cars installed with high-efficiency InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs 3-junction solar cell modules with a module efficiency of more than 30%. The temperature rise of some PV modules studied in this study was shown to be expressed by some coefficients related to solar irradiation, wind speed and radiative cooling. The potential of VIPV-EV to be deployed in 10 major cities was also analyzed. Although sunshine cities such as Phoenix show the high reduction ratio of driving range with 17% due to temperature rise of VIPV modules, populous cities such as Tokyo show low reduction ratio of 9%. It was also shown in this paper that the difference between the driving distance of VIPV-EV driving in the morning and the afternoon is due to PV modules’ radiative cooling. In addition, the importance of heat dissipation of PV modules and the development of high-efficiency PV modules with better temperature coefficients was suggested in order to expand driving range of VIPV-EV. The effects of air-conditioner usage and partial shading in addition to the effects of temperature rise of VIPV modules were suggested as the other power losses of VIPV-EV.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0506103]National Natural Science Foundation of China[31770579]+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(20720180118)the Key Laboratory of the Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems(WELRI201601)the State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science(MELRI1603).
文摘Flow regime is a key driver of invasive aquatic organisms,and the invasiveness of mangrove species may be simultaneously attributed to plant traits and flowing hydrological conditions at the estuary scale.We focused on hydrological and topographic conditions for a non-native mangrove species,Sonneratia apetala,in Zhangjiang Estuary of Fujian,China.A hydrological model and a micro-topographic model were used to predict its dispersal and early establishment,and field surveys and simulated experiments were integrated to estimate its future dispersal patterns.The mesohaline mudflat with a salinity of 8~10 PSU at the mangrove seaward edge was the most likely colonization area for S.apetala under current conditions.The south-western region of the estuary with native mangroves was the most likely area for its colonization according to the unstructured-grid finite-volume community ocean model(FVCOM)in September,when the largest tidal currents within a year and the maximum fruit maturity period occur.Approximately 42%of the mudflats throughout the whole estuary may be available for seedling establishment under the future sea-level rise RCP 4.5 scenarios compared with 44%for current establishment;however,the RCP 8.5 scenarios would significantly decrease seedling establishment by 2100 due to serious tidal inundation according to the micro-topographical model.
文摘Sea-level rise is a long-term,intractable problem during which costly,large-scale inundation could occur in many countries;hence,tourismdevelopment should take this matter into account because ecology and biodiversity are the fundamentals underpinning tourism performance.This study conceptualizes an economic mechanism of the potential effects of sea-level rise on tourism development based on projected impactsfor the 2001e2100 period.Data for 48 developing countries across Africa,Asia,and South America are analyzed.The theoretical frameworkproposes two hypotheses to determine the extent of contradiction between awareness and destruction in relation to environmental protection fortourism development.From the panel data regression results,although destructive effects are bound to dominate the entire 21st century,awareness is latent and has the potential to reverse the destructive outcomes.With evidence from essential economic elements,this study givesnew insights into how severe the impacts of sea-level rise on tourism could be if shared values and adaptation measures to mitigate rising sealevel are not substantively promoted around the globe.The new findings show a 0.95 standard-deviation decrease in tourism performancefollowing a 1 standard-deviation increase in the economic loss related sea-level rise.Hence,in the main conclusions,we highlight that theprojected effect of inundation-related deterioration on a country's tourism sector appears to be approximately on par with the costs of inundationsto its economic growth.
基金This study was supported by Environmental Protection Agency Award:[Grant Numbers CD96329601-1 and CD-97386001-0].
文摘Introduction:Marshes contribute to habitat and water quality in estuaries and coastal bays.Their importance to continued ecosystem functioning has led to concerns about their persistence.Outcomes:Concurrent with sea-level rise,marshes are eroding and appear to be disappearing through ponding in their interior;in addition,in many places,they are being replaced with shoreline stabilization structures.We examined the changes in marsh extent over the past 40 years within a subestuary of Chesapeake Bay,the largest estuary in the United States,to better understand the effects of sea-level rise and human pressure on marsh coverage.Discussion:Approximately 30 years ago,an inventory of York River estuary marshes documented the historic extent of marshes.Marshes were resurveyed in 2010 to examine shifts in tidal marsh extent and distribution.Marsh change varied spatially along the estuary,with watershed changes between a 32%loss and an 11%gain in marsh area.Loss of marsh was apparent in high energy sections of the estuary while there was marsh gain in the upper/riverine section of the estuary and where forested hummocks on marsh islands have become inundated.Marshes showed little change in the small tributary creeks,except in the creeks dominated by fringing marshes and high shoreline development.Conclusions:Differential resilience to sea-level rise and spatial variations in erosion,sediment supply,and human development have resulted in spatially variable changes in specific marsh extents and are predicted to lead to a redistribution of marshes along the estuarine gradient,with consequences for their unique communities.
文摘The absolute and relative rates of rise of the sea level are computed for the New York City area by coupling global positioning system records of the position of fixed domes nearby tide gauges,with the tide gauges’records.Two tide gauges are considered,one long-term trend,more reliable,The Battery,in lower Manhattan,and one shorter,less reliable,Sandy Hook,in New Jersey.The relative rates of rise of the sea level are+2.851 and+4.076 mm/yr.The subsidence rates are-2.151 and-3.076 mm/yr.The absolute rates of rise of the sea level are+0.7 and+1.0 mm/yr.The relative sea-level acceleration,reliable only in The Battery,is about+0.008 mm/yr².This acceleration is about the same as the world average long-term trend tide gauge,as well as the average long-term trend tide gauge of the East Coast of North America.The absolute rate of rise of the sea level by 2050 in the lower Manhattan area will be likely less than 30 mm,and the absolute rate of rise of the sea level by 2100 likely less than 80 mm.The relative rate of rise of the sea level by 2050 in the Manhattan area will be likely 85 mm,and the relative rate of rise of the sea level by 2100 likely 228 mm,because of the overwhelming subsidence contribution.
