Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale ...Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale anomaly takes place which is of remarkable seasonality and interannual variability.Analysis also shows that for the same seasonal external forcing the model atmosphere can exhibit two climatic states,similar in the departure pattern but opposite in sign, indicating that the anomaly is but the manifestation of the adverse states, which supports the theory of multi-equilibria proposed by Charney and Devore(1979) once again.Finally, the source for the low-frequency oscillation of the global atmosphere is found to be the convective heat source / sink inside the tropical atmosphere as discussed before in our study.Therefore, the key approach to the exploration of atmospheric steady low-frequency oscillation and the associated climatic effect lies in the examination of the distribution of convective heat sources / sinks and the variation in the tropical atmosphere.展开更多
Analysis is done of monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation o...Analysis is done of monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation of 301 onland cyclone tracks over China mainland in terms of methodology for nonlinear system. Obtained by computing the accumulated distance distribution function of the tracks Cm (l) is the characteristic chaos quantity for the related dynamic systems and then the fractual dimensionality d = 4.86 and Kolmogorov entropy approximation K2 = 0.0164, thereby leading to the predictability time scale = 2.54 days. It is found that the reference path among the onland typhoon No.23 of 1971, or Bess in the international nomenclature. Our results could be of operational use as a kind of reference.展开更多
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China projects[grant numbers 42305178 and U2344224]the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale anomaly takes place which is of remarkable seasonality and interannual variability.Analysis also shows that for the same seasonal external forcing the model atmosphere can exhibit two climatic states,similar in the departure pattern but opposite in sign, indicating that the anomaly is but the manifestation of the adverse states, which supports the theory of multi-equilibria proposed by Charney and Devore(1979) once again.Finally, the source for the low-frequency oscillation of the global atmosphere is found to be the convective heat source / sink inside the tropical atmosphere as discussed before in our study.Therefore, the key approach to the exploration of atmospheric steady low-frequency oscillation and the associated climatic effect lies in the examination of the distribution of convective heat sources / sinks and the variation in the tropical atmosphere.
基金This work is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Analysis is done of monthly and seasonal variations as climatic features of the tracks from 1196 tropical cyclones originating in the western North Pacific over the period 1949 to 1980, followed by the investigation of 301 onland cyclone tracks over China mainland in terms of methodology for nonlinear system. Obtained by computing the accumulated distance distribution function of the tracks Cm (l) is the characteristic chaos quantity for the related dynamic systems and then the fractual dimensionality d = 4.86 and Kolmogorov entropy approximation K2 = 0.0164, thereby leading to the predictability time scale = 2.54 days. It is found that the reference path among the onland typhoon No.23 of 1971, or Bess in the international nomenclature. Our results could be of operational use as a kind of reference.
