Tea Production Response to Seasonal Rainfall Variability: Evidence from Rwanda

Tea is a very important cash crop in Rwanda, as it provides crucial income and employment for farmers in poor rural areas. From 2017 to 2020, this study was intended to determine the impact of seasonal rainfall on tea output in Rwanda while still considering temperature, plot size (land), and fertiliser for tea plantations in three of Rwanda’s western, southern, and northern provinces, western province with “Gisovu” and “Nyabihu”, southern with “Kitabi”, and northern with “Mulindi” tea company. The study tested the level of statistical significance of all considered variables in different formulation of panel data models to assess individual behaviour of independent variables that would affect tea production. According to this study, a positive change in rainfall of 1 mm will increase tea production by 0.215 percentage points of tons of fresh leaves. Rainfall is a statistically significant variable among all variables with a positive impact on tea output Qitin Rwanda’s Western, Southern, and Northern provinces. Rainfall availability favourably affects tea output and supports our claim. Therefore, there is a need for collaboration efforts towards developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation options against climate change, targeting tea farming and the government to ensure that tea policy reforms are targeted towards raising the competitiveness of Rwandan tea at local and global market.

Surface current field and seasonal variability in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions derived from satellite-tracked drifter data

The muhiyear averaged surface current field and seasonal variability in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions are studied. The data used are trajectories and （1/4） ° latitude by （1/4） ° longitude mean currents derived from 323 Argos drifters deployed by Chinese institutions and world ocean circulation experiment from 1979 to 2003. The results show that the Kuroshio surface path adapts well to the western boundary topography and exhibits six great turnings. The branching occurs frequently near anticyclonic turnings rather than near cyclonic ones. In the Luzon Strait, the surface water intrusion into the South China Sea occurs only in fall and winter. The Kuroshio surface path east of Taiwan, China appears nearly as straight lines in summer, fall, and winter, when anticyclonic eddies coexist on its right side; while the path may cyclonically turning in spring when no eddy exists. The Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan often occurs in fall and winter, but not in summer. The running direction, width and velocity of the middle segment of the Kuroshio surface currents in the East China Sea vary seasonally. The northward intrusion of the Kuroshio surface water southwest of Kyushu occurs in spring and fall, but not in summer. The northmost position of the Kuroshio surface path southwest of Kyushu occurs in fall, but never goes beyond 31 °N. The northward surface current east of the Ryukyu Islands exists only along Okinawa-Amami Islands from spring to fall. In particular, it appears as an arm of an anti- cyclonic eddy in fall.

Seasonal variability of salinity budget and water exchange in the northern Indian Ocean from HYCOM assimilation

Based on HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) assimilation and observations, we analyzed seasonal variability of the salinity budget in the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) and the southern part of the Bay of Bengal (BOB), as well as water exchange between the two basins. Results show that fresh water flux cannot explain salinity changes in salinity budget of both regions. Oceanic advection decreases salinity in the southeastern AS during the winter monsoon season and increases salinity in the southern BOB during the summer monsoon season. In winter, the Northeast Monsoon Current (NMC) carries fresher water from the BOB westward into the southern AS; this westward advection is confined to 4°-6°N and the upper 180 m south of the Indian peninsula. Part of the less saline water then turns northward, decreasing salinity in the southeastern AS. In summer, the Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) advects high-salinity water from the AS eastward into the BOB, increasing salinity along its path. This eastward advection of high-salinity water south of the India Peninsula extends southward to 2°N, and the layer becomes shallower than in winter. In addition to the monsoon current, the salinity difference between the two basins is important for salinity advection.

Seasonal variability of tropical cyclones generated over the South China Sea

The seasonal variability of tropical cyclones （CTCs） generated over the South China Sea （SCS） from 1948 to 2003 is analyzed. It peaks in occurrence in August and few generate in late winter （from January to March）. The seasonal activity is attributed to the variability of atmosphere and ocean environments associated with the monsoon system. It is found that the monsoonal characteristics of the SCS basically determine the region of tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in each month.

Seasonal variability in the thermohaline structure of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

Using the 28℃ isotherm to define the Western Pacific Warm Pool （WPWP）, this study analyzes the seasonal variability of the WPWP thermohaline structure on the basis of the monthly-averaged sea temperature and salinity data from 1950 to 2011, and the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms based on the monthly-averaged wind, precipitation, net heat fluxes and current velocity data. A△T=-0.4℃ is more suitable than other temperature criterion for determining the mixed layer （ML） and barrier layer （BL） over the WPWP using monthly-averaged temperature and salinity data. The WPWP has a particular thermohaline structure and can be vertically divided into three layers, i.e., the ML, BL, and deep layer （DL）. The BL thickness （BLT） is the thickest, while the ML thickness （MLT） is the thinnest. The MLT has a similar seasonal variation to the DL thickness （DLT） and BLT. They are all thicker in spring and fall but thinner in summer. The temperatures of the ML and BL are both higher in spring and autumn but lower in winter and summer with an annual amplitude of 0.15℃, while the temperature of the DL is higher in May and lower in August. The averaged salinities at these three layers are all higher in March but lower in September, with annual ranges of 0.41-0.45. Zonal currents, i.e., the South Equatorial Current （SEC） and North Equatorial Counter Current （NECC）, and winds may be the main dynamic factors driving the seasonal variability in the WPWP thermohaline structure, while precipitation and net heat fluxes are both important thermodynamic factors. Higher （lower） winds cause both the MLT and BLT to thicken （thin）, a stronger （weaker） NECC induces MLT, BLT, and DLT to thin （thicken）, and a stronger （weaker） SEC causes both the MLT and BLT to thicken （thin） and the DLT to thin （thicken）. An increase （decrease） in the net heat fluxes causes the MLT and BLT to thicken （thin） but the DLT to thin （thicken）, while a stronger （weaker） precipitation favors thinner （thicker） MLT but thicker （thinner） BLT and DLT. In addition, a stronger （weaker） NECC and SEC cause the temperature of the three layers to decrease （increase）, while the seasonal variability in salinity at the ML, BL, and DL might be controlled by the subtropical cell （STC）.

CO_2 flux and seasonal variability in the turbidity maximum zone and surrounding area in the Changjiang River estuary

The turbidity maximum zone(TMZ) is one of the most important regions in an estuary.However,the high concentration of suspended material makes it difficult to measure the partial pressure of CO_2(pCO_2) in these regions.Therefore,very little data is available on the pCO_2 levels in TMZs.To relatively accurately evaluate the CO_2 flux in an example estuary,we studied the TMZ and surrounding area in the Changjiang(Yangtze) River estuary.From seasonal cruises during February,August,November 2010,and May 2012,the pCO_2 in the TMZ and surrounding area was calculated from pH and total alkalinity(TA)measured in situ,from which the CO_2 flux was calculated.Overall,the TMZ and surrounding area acted as a source of atmosphere CO_2 in February and November,and as a sink in May and August.The average FCO_2was-9,-16,5,and 5 mmol/(m^2·d) in May,August,November,and February,respectively.The TMZ's role as a source or sink of atmosphere CO_2 was quite different to the outer estuary.In the TMZ and surrounding area,suspended matter,phytoplankton,and pH were the main factors controlling the FCO_2,but here the influence of temperature,salinity,and total alkalinity on the FCO_2 was weak.Organic carbon decomposition in suspended matter was the main reason for the region acting as a CO_2 source in winter,and phytoplankton production was the main reason the region was a CO_2 sink in summer.

Revisiting the seasonal wave height variability in the South China Sea with merged satellite altimetry observations

The seasonal variability of the significant wave height（SWH） in the South China Sea（SCS） is investigated using the most up-to-date gridded daily altimeter data for the period of September 2009 to August 2015. The results indicate that the SWH shows a uniform seasonal variation in the whole SCS, with its maxima occurring in December/January and minima in May. Throughout the year, the SWH in the SCS is the largest around Luzon Strait（LS） and then gradually decreases southward across the basin. The surface wind speed has a similar seasonal variation, but with different spatial distributions in most months of the year. Further analysis indicates that the observed SWH variations are dominated by swell. The wind sea height, however, is much smaller. It is the the largest in two regions southwest of Taiwan Island and southeast of Vietnam Coast during the northeasterly monsoon, while the largest in the central/southern SCS during the southwesterly monsoon. The extreme wave condition also experiences a significant seasonal variation. In most regions of the northern and central SCS, the maxima of the 99 th percentile SWH that are larger than the SWH theoretically calculated with the wind speed for the fully developed seas mainly appear in August–November, closely related to strong tropical cyclone activities.Compared with previous studies, it is also implied that the wave climate in the Pacific Ocean plays an important role in the wave climate variations in the SCS.

Climatology and seasonal variability of satellite-derived chlorophyll a around the Shandong Peninsula

The chlorophyll a(Chl a)is an important indicator of marine ecosystems.The spatiotemporal variation of the Chl a greatly aff ects the mariculture and marine ranching in coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula.In the current study,the climatology and seasonal variability of surface Chl-a concentration around the Shandong Peninsula are investigated based on 16 years(December 2002-November 2018)of satellite observations.The results indicate that the annual mean Chl-a concentration is greater in the Bohai Sea than in the Yellow Sea and decreases from coastal waters to off shore waters.The highest Chl-a concentrations are found in Laizhou Bay(4.2-8.0 mg/m^(3)),Haizhou Bay(4.2-5.9 mg/m^(3))and the northeast coast of the Shandong Peninsula(4.4-5.0 mg/m^(3)),resulting from the combined eff ects of the intense riverine input and long residence time caused by the concave shape of the coastline.The seasonal Chl-a concentration shows a significant spatial variation.The Chl-a concentrations in these three subregions generally exhibit an annual maximum in August/September,due to the combined eff ects of sea surface temperature,river discharge and sea surface wind.In the southeast coast region,however,the Chl-a concentration is lowest throughout the year and reaches a maximum in February with a minimum in July,forced by the seasonal evolution of the Yellow Sea Cold Water and monsoon winds.The interannual Chl-a concentration trends vary among regions and seasons.There are significant increasing trends over a large area around Haizhou Bay from winter to summer,which are mainly caused by the rising sea surface temperature and eutrophication.In other coastal areas,the Chl-a concentration shows decreasing trends,which are clearest in summer and induced by the weakening land rainfall.This study highlights the differences in the Chl-a dynamics among regions around the Shandong Peninsula and is helpful for further studies of coupled physical-ecological-human interactions at multiple scales.

Seasonal variability in dissolved oxygen in the Bohai Sea,China

Deoxygenation has frequently appeared in coastal ecosystems over the past century due to the joint infl uence of increasing anthropogenically induced nutrient inputs and global warming.The semi-enclosed Bohai Sea is a typical system that is prone to deoxygenation,with regular hypoxia events consistently recorded in recent decades.Based on in-situ observation data collected in large-scale voyage surveys in the Bohai Sea during 2008-2017,the seasonal variability in dissolved oxygen(DO)and its controlling mechanisms were studied.The results indicated that in spring and autumn,the DO distributions exhibited similar spatial patterns in the surface and bottom layers,while in summer,its spatial distribution was characterized by large-scale oxygen-poor zones distributed off the Qinhuangdao Coast and the central southern Bohai Sea in the bottom layer.The controlling mechanisms of the DO distribution varied from season to season.Spring and autumn DO distributions were dominated by the seawater temperature.Under the combined eff ects of stratifi cation and decomposition,the summer bottom DO exhibited dual-core distribution.On the one hand,stratifi cation could greatly impede vertical mixing,resulting in reduced bottom DO replenishment.On the other hand,the increased bottom organic matter intensifi ed the decomposition processes,inducing massive DO consumption and elevated dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations.In addition,the stronger stratifi cation might be the reason for the more severe deoxygenation in the southern oxygen-poor zones in summer.Our study provides guidance for an in-depth understanding of the DO seasonality in the Bohai Sea and the mechanisms that modulate it and for the improvement of hypoxia forecasts in ocean models.

Circulation and its seasonal variability in region around the Kerguelen Plateau

A coupled ice-ocean isopycnal numerical model of the Southern Ocean is established tostudy the circulation and its seasonal variability in the region around the Kerguelen Plateau. An analysis of the simulated results shows significant stripe-like structure and non-zonal feature of the Antarctic Cir-cumpolar Current (ACC) in this region. ACC begins to bifurcate and to turn its direction before meeting the plateau. The southernmost branch of ACC is near to the Antarctic coast and displays its strong interaction with the westward Antarctic Slope Current. The northern branch of ACC has a tendency of annual variations while the southern one varies in a semiannual cycle. The variation phases of both branches are coincident with that of the wind stress in this region.

Seasonal variability of the Kuroshio Current at the PN Section in the East China Sea based on in-situ observation from 1987 to 2010

As the spatio-temporal variability of the Kuroshio is highly influenced by mesoscale eddies, representing its seasonal variability characteristics requires sufficiently long term observations to reduce the uncertainties. Geostrophic velocity data estimated from hydrographic observation from 1987 to 2010 and the shipboard ADCP velocity data from 1993 to 2008 at the PN Section in the central East China Sea are collected to view the seasonal variability objectively. From both types of observation, it is found that the seasonal climatology mean of the Kuroshio Current exhibits significant difference in three areas, which are located at the Kuroshio Current core and its two flanks in a shallow layer less than 300 m, with the weakest northeast current at the core in autumn, the strongest counter current on the right flank in spring, and the strongest northeast current on the left flank in autumn, respectively. The seasonal variance of the Kuroshio Current also exhibits significant difference on the off- shore side of the Kuroshio, with larger variance in spring and summer while smaller variance in autumn and winter. For the current parallel to the PN Section, the ratio of the seasonal variability component to the intraseasonal variability component is relatively smaller than that for the current perpendicular to the PN Section. Further analyses indicate that the seasonal variability at the PN Section is tightly linked to the upstream and downstream current variability.

Structure and seasonal variability of fronts in the Southeast Indian Ocean along sections from Fremantle, Australia to Antarctic Zhongshan Station

Four sections of expendable conductivity-temperature-depth （XCTD） profiles from Fremantle, Australia to Antarctic Zhongshan Station and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aquarius （MODIS-A） sea surface temperature （SST） products were used to study the structure and seasonal variability of Southeast Indian Ocean fronts. Water mass analysis showed that surface water masses in the Southeast Indian Ocean were less salty in March than in November. Compared with November, the subtropical front （STF） moved southward about one degree of latitude in March, whereas seasonal variability of the subantarctic front （SAF） and polar front （PF） locations was not obvious. In March, the saline front moved northward about two degrees of latitude relative to the thermal front in the upper 100 m at the SAF, which was the northern boundary of sub- Antarctic surface water （SASW）. Analysis of climatological SST gradients from the satellite data showed that regions of enhanced sea surface temperature （SST） gradients were collocated with frontal locations identified with the XCTD data using water mass criteria. The surface expression of the PF identified by the SST gradient was further south by about one degree of latitude relative to the subsurface expression of the PF identified by the northern boundary of cold water.

Seasonal variability of the North Equatorial Current transport in the western Pacific Ocean

Seasonal variability of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） transport in the western Pacific Ocean is investigated with ECMWF Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis System 3 （eRA-S3）. The result shows that NEC transport （NT） across different longitudes in the research area shows a similar double-peak structure, with two maxima （in summer and winter）, and two minima （in spring and autumn）. This kind of structure can also be found in NEC geostrophic transport （NGT）, but in a different magnitude and phase. These differences are attributable to Ekman transport induced by the local meridional wind and transport caused by nonzero velocity at the reference level, which is assumed to be zero in the NGT calculation. In the present work, a linear vorticity equation governing a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model is adopted to examine the dynamics of the seasonal variability of NGT. It is found that the annual cycle of NGT is mainly controlled by Ekman pumping induced by local wind, and westward-propagating Rossby waves induced by remote wind. Further research demonstrates that the maximum in winter and minimum in spring are mostly attributed to wind east of the dateline, whilst the maximum in summer and minimum in autumn are largely attributed to that west of the dateline.

Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region.

SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM POOL AND ITS RELATION TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET

The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.

Seasonal Variability in the Kuroshio Extension Current System

Based on the GDEM hydrographic data with a resolution of 0.5°× 0.5°, the current system (Kuroshio south of Japan and Kuroshio Extension east of Japan) is determined by using the P-Vector Method, and its seasonal variability is investigated. The Kuroshio Meander south of Japan, the two lee-wave meanders in the Kuroshio Extension and the bifurcation of the Kuroshio Extension are properly presented. The path of the Kuroshio Meander, the position of the second (east) meander in the Kuroshio Extension and the bifurcation of the Kuroshio Extension display evident seasonal variation.

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Water Quality and Nutrient Removal Efficiency of Restored Wetland： A Case Study in Fujin National Wetland Park, China

To investigate the spatio-temporal and compositional variation of selected water quality parameters and understand the puri- fying effects of wetland in Fujin National Wetland Park （FNWP）, China, the trophic level index （TLI）, paired samples t-test and correla- tion analysis were used for the statistical analysis of a set of 10 water quality parameters. The analyses were based on water samples collected from 22 stations in FNWP between 2014 and 2016. Results initially reveal that total nitrogen （TN） concentrations are above class V levels （2 mg/L）, total phosphorus （TP） concentrations are below class III levels （0.2 mg/L）, and that all other parameters fall within standard ranges. Highest values for TN, pH, and Chlorophyll-a were recorded in 2016, while the levels of chemical oxygen de- mand （CODMn） and biochemical oxygen demand （BODs） were lowest during this year. Similarly, TN values were highest between 2014 and 2016 while dissolved oxygen （DO） concentrations were lowest in the summer and TP concentrations were highest in the autumn. Significant variations were also found in Secchi depth （SD）, TN, CODMn （P 〈 0.01）, TP, and DO levels （P 〈 0.05） between the inlet and outlet of the park. High-to-low levels of TN, TP, and TDS were found in cattails, reeds, and open water （the opposite trend was seen in SD levels）. Tested wetland water had a light eutrophication status in most cases and TN and TP removal rates were between 7.54%-84.36% and 37.50%-70.83%, respectively. Data also show no significant annual changes in water quality within this wetland, although obvious affects from surrounding agricultural drainage were nevertheless recorded. Results reveal a high major nutrient removal efficiency （N and P）. The upper limits of these phenomena should be addressed in future research alongside a more efficient and scientific agricultural layout for the regions in and around the FNWP.

On the Seasonal Transition and the Interannual Variability in Global Kinetic Energy at 500 hPa, Accompanied withAnomalies of Energy during the 1982 / 83 ENSO

Utilizing the material of monthly means of the three primary kinetic energy modes over the whote globe at 500 hPa during the nine years of 1980-1988, both the rapid seasonal changes and the interannual variability in tie general circulation in terms of the energy modes have been investigated, with special attention paid to the unusual year 1983, Two main results are obtained. One, there are remarkable seasonal rapid changes over the Northern Hemisphere, occurring ganerally in April and October. The other, among the nine years of 1980-1988, 1983 is the only one with unusual energy modes and remarkably abnormal seasonal changes.

Seasonal Characteristics and Interannual Variability of Monthly Scale Low-Frequency Oscillation in a Low-Order Global Spectral Model

Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale anomaly takes place which is of remarkable seasonality and interannual variability.Analysis also shows that for the same seasonal external forcing the model atmosphere can exhibit two climatic states,similar in the departure pattern but opposite in sign, indicating that the anomaly is but the manifestation of the adverse states, which supports the theory of multi-equilibria proposed by Charney and Devore(1979) once again.Finally, the source for the low-frequency oscillation of the global atmosphere is found to be the convective heat source / sink inside the tropical atmosphere as discussed before in our study.Therefore, the key approach to the exploration of atmospheric steady low-frequency oscillation and the associated climatic effect lies in the examination of the distribution of convective heat sources / sinks and the variation in the tropical atmosphere.

The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea

Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-10 days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.