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Investigation into Recent Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Mali Using Mann-Kendall Trend Test: Case Study of Bamako
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作者 Alikalifa Sanogo Roland Songotu Kabange +3 位作者 Prince Appiah Owusu Bakary Issa Djire Racheal Fosu Donkoh Nasser Dia 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2023年第3期155-172,共18页
Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is c... Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. Trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out. 展开更多
关键词 Sahel Countries BAMAKO Recent trends mann-kendall trend test Climate Change
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A method to predict rockburst using temporal trend test and its application
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作者 Yarong Xue Zhenlei Li +5 位作者 Dazhao Song Xueqiu He Honglei Wang Chao Zhou Jianqiang Chen Aleksei Sobolev 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期909-923,共15页
Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integr... Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the Mann-Kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst hazards.The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for rockbursts.The MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning criterion.By employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference determination.Ultimately,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data fusion.The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual index.Moreover,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working environments.By providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of rockbursts.It offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations. 展开更多
关键词 ROCKBURST MICROSEISMICITY Early warning mann-kendall trend test Confusion matrix Multi-indices fusion
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Detecting Global Vegetation Changes Using Mann-Kendal(MK) Trend Test for 1982–2015 Time Period 被引量:10
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作者 GUO Meng LI Jing +2 位作者 HE Hongshi XU Jiawei JIN Yinghua 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第6期907-919,共13页
Vegetation is the main component of the terrestrial ecosystem and plays a key role in global climate change. Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect vegetation trends at large scales. To understan... Vegetation is the main component of the terrestrial ecosystem and plays a key role in global climate change. Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect vegetation trends at large scales. To understand the trends of vegetation cover, this research examined the spatial-temporal trends of global vegetation by employing the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies(GIMMS) time series(1982–2015). Ten samples were selected to test the temporal trend of NDVI, and the results show that in arid and semi-arid regions, NDVI showed a deceasing trend, while it showed a growing trend in other regions. Mann-Kendal(MK) trend test results indicate that 83.37% of NDVI pixels exhibited positive trends and that only 16.63% showed negative trends(P < 0.05) during the period from 1982 to 2015. The increasing NDVI trends primarily occurred in tree-covered regions because of forest growth and re-growth and also because of vegetation succession after a forest disturbance. The increasing trend of the NDVI in cropland regions was primarily because of the increasing cropland area and the improvement in planting techniques. This research describes the spatial vegetation trends at a global scale over the past 30+ years, especially for different land cover types. 展开更多
关键词 vegetation trend NDVI3g.v1 mann-kendall (MK) trend test land cover types
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Characterizing the Urban Temperature Trend Using Seasonal Unit Root Analysis:Hong Kong from 1970 to 2015
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作者 Wai-Ming TO Tat-Wai YU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第12期1376-1385,共10页
This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean... This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169~ C (10 yr) - 1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data -- much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865~C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43. 展开更多
关键词 urban temperature trend urban heat island effect seasonal unit root tests long-term time series
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Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate,Iran
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作者 Mahsa MIRDASHTVAN Mohsen MOHSENI SARAVI 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第6期964-983,共20页
Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regi... Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran. 展开更多
关键词 climate change trend analysis stationarity tests serial correlation seasonalITY arid and semi-arid regions
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Hydrological Mann-Kendal Multivariate Trends Analysis in the Upper Yangtze River Basin 被引量:1
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作者 Lei Ye Jianzhong Zhou +1 位作者 Xiaofan Zeng Muhammad Tayyab 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2015年第10期34-39,共6页
Hydrological events should be described through several correlated variables, so multivariate HFA has gained popularity and become an active research field during recent years. However, at present multivariate HFA mai... Hydrological events should be described through several correlated variables, so multivariate HFA has gained popularity and become an active research field during recent years. However, at present multivariate HFA mainly focuses directly on fitting the frequency distribution without confirming whether the assumptions are satisfied. Neglecting testing these assumptions could get severely wrong frequency distribution. This paper uses multivariate Mann-Kendal testing to detect the multivariate trends of annual flood peak and annual maximum 15 day volume for four control hydrological stations in the?Upper Yangtze River Basin. Results indicate that multivariate test could detect the trends of joint variables, whereas univariate tests can only detect the univariate trends. Therefore, it is recommended to jointly apply univariate and multivariate trend tests to capture all the existing trends. 展开更多
关键词 trend Analysis MULTIVARIATE mann-kendal test HYDROLOGICAL Variable UPPER YANGTZE River BASIN
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Spatial and Temporal Variation and Trend Analysis of Water Quality in Large Reservoirs in Ji’an City
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作者 MAO Yan ZHANG Jie +4 位作者 BAN Lei LANG Fengxiang MIN Xiang NIU Ziqiang ZHOU Yin 《Journal of Landscape Research》 2023年第5期48-52,共5页
Based on the water quality monitoring data of 5 large reservoirs in Ji’an City,Jiangxi Province from 2015-2021,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and trends of water quality of the reservoirs were ana... Based on the water quality monitoring data of 5 large reservoirs in Ji’an City,Jiangxi Province from 2015-2021,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and trends of water quality of the reservoirs were analyzed by single-factor evaluation method and seasonal Kendall test to evaluate the trophic status of the reservoirs and explore the influencing factors of characteristic pollutants.The results showed that:①the water quality of the reservoirs was good and could meet the water needs of various functions;②the water quality of the reservoirs had generally changed from bad to good in recent years,indicating that the implementation of“river chief system”has achieved certain results;③Kendall test analysis showed that,except for individual projects which showed an upward trend in water quality,other projects showed no obvious change trend or downward trend,indicating that the water quality of the reservoirs is indeed improving;④the causes of water pollution in reservoir area were further analyzed by exploring the natural and human factors of the characteristic pollutant total phosphorus.It is recommended to strengthen supervision in the later stage to control point and non-point source pollution. 展开更多
关键词 Water quality evaluation Single factor evaluation seasonal Kendall test Large reservoir Trophic status Water quality trends
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The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin 被引量:19
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作者 LIN Xuedong ZHANG Yili +5 位作者 YAO Zhijun GONG Tongliang WANG Hong CHU Duo LIU Linshan ZHANG Fei 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第1期95-106,共12页
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of th... Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations (Lhasa and Tanggya) and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations (Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya). The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points (around 1970 and the early 1980s), after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year (November to April) and some other months (May, July and September). (2) The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season. 展开更多
关键词 Lhasa River Basin trend of runoff variation Pettitt change-point test mann-kendall trend analysis multiple linear regressions
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Wavelet Analysis and Nonparametric Test for Climate Change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang During 1959-2006 被引量:14
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作者 XU Jianhua CHEN Yaning +3 位作者 LI Weihong JI Minhe DONG Shan HONG Yulian 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2009年第4期306-313,共8页
Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tari... Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious. 展开更多
关键词 climate change nonlinear trend wavelet analysis mann-kendall test Tarim River Basin
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Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District 被引量:5
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作者 Xu-ming WANG Hai-jun LIU +1 位作者 Li-wei ZHANG Rui-hao ZHANG 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2014年第3期250-266,共17页
Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference e... Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration (ET0 ) (estimated by the Penman-Monteith method) were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen's slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the ET0 change and each climatic variable's change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in ETo. The radiative component of total ET0 increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total ETo than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season (from April to October). The sensitivity analysis showed that ETo in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature (11.8%), followed by wind speed (-7.3%) and relative humidity (4.8%). Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on ET0 over the past 59 years. 展开更多
关键词 climatic variables reference evapotranspiration change trend mann-kendall test sensitivity analysis
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The Regions with the Most Significant Temperature Trends During the Last Century 被引量:3
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作者 曾昭美 严中伟 叶笃正 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2001年第4期481-496,共16页
Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0... Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0.6°C/ 100 years in the tropical area over Indian to the western Pacific Oceans was most closely correlated to the global mean change. Therefore, the temperature change in this area might serve as an indi-cator of global mean change at annual and longer time scales. Secondly, a cooling of about -0.3°C/ 100 years occurred over the northern Atlantic. Thirdly, a two-wave pattern of temperature change, warming over northern Asia and northwestern America and cooling over the northern Atlantic and the northern Pa-cific, occurred during the last half century linked to strengthening westerlies over the northern Atlantic and the weakening Siberian High. Fourthly, a remarkable seasonal difference occurred over the Eurasian con-tinent, with cooling (warming) in winter (summer) during 1896–1945, and warming (cooling) in winter (summer) during 1946-1995. The corresponding variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the South-ern Oscillation were also discussed. Key words Temperature trend - Mann-Kendall’s Test - Significance - Regional difference - Correlation coefficient This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology Projects G1999043400 and Na-tional Key Project- “Studies on Short-Term Climate Prediction System in China” under Grant No.96-908-01-04. 展开更多
关键词 Temperature trend mann-kendall’s test SIGNIFICANCE Regional difference Correlation coefficient
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Trend Analysis in Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Anomaly Index in the Context of Climate Change in Southern Togo 被引量:6
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作者 Komlan Koudahe Adewumi J. Kayode +2 位作者 Awokola O. Samson Adekunle A. Adebola Koffi Djaman 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2017年第4期401-423,共23页
Rainfall and temperature are climatic variables mostly affected by global warming. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend analysis in annual temperature and rainfall in the Southern Togo for the 1970-2014 ... Rainfall and temperature are climatic variables mostly affected by global warming. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend analysis in annual temperature and rainfall in the Southern Togo for the 1970-2014 period. Daily and annual rainfall and temperature were collected from four weather stations at Atakpame, Kouma-Konda, Lome, and Tabligbo. The temperature variability was determined by the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and the annual rainfall variability was determined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Mann-Kendall statistical test for the mean annual, mean annual minimum and maximum temperature from 1970 to 2014 showed significant warming trends for all stations except Kouma-Konda where mean annual maximum temperature had exhibited non significant cooling trend (P = 0.01). For Standardized Precipitation Index in the 12-month time scale, dry tendency dominates Atakpamé (55.7%) and Kouma-Konda (55.5%) while wet tendency dominates slightly Lomé (50.9%) and Tabligbo (51.4%). The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in standardized anomaly index at all the sites, prejudicial to rainfed agriculture practiced by about 90% of Togolese crop growers. The trend analysis in the climate variables indicated a change in climate that necessitates some specific actions for resources management sustainability and conservation. 展开更多
关键词 trend Analysis mann-kendall test RAINFALL Temperature Climate Change
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Detection of Approximate Potential Trend Turning Points in Temperature Time Series (1941-2010) for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India 被引量:3
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作者 Soumendu Chatterjee Dipak Bisai Ansar Khan 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2014年第1期64-69,共6页
Researches are being carried out world-wide to understand the nature of temperature change during recent past at different geographical scales so that comprehensive inferences can be drawn about recent temperature tre... Researches are being carried out world-wide to understand the nature of temperature change during recent past at different geographical scales so that comprehensive inferences can be drawn about recent temperature trend and future climate. Detection of turning points in time series of meteorological parameters puts challenges to the researches. In this work, the temperature time series from 1941 to 2010 for Asansol observatory, West Bengal, India, has been considered to understand the nature, trends and change points in the data set using sequential version of Mann-Kendall test statistic. Literatures suggest that use of this test statistic is the most appropriate for detecting climatic abrupt changes as compared to other statistical tests in use. This method has been employed upon monthly average temperatures recorded over the said 70 years for detection of abrupt changes in the average temperature of each of the months. The approximate potential trend turning points have been calculated separately for each month (January to December). Sequential version of Mann-Kendall test statistic values for the months of July and August is significant at 95% confidence level (p 0.05). The average temperature for most of the other months has shown an increasing trend but more significant rise in July and August temperature has been recognized since 1960s. 展开更多
关键词 Sequential Version of mann-kendall test Statistic TEMPERATURE trends TURNING Points
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Homogeneity and Trend Analysis of Hydrometeorological Data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey 被引量:1
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作者 Ebru Eris Necati Agiralioglu 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 2012年第2期99-105,共7页
Eastern Black Sea Region in northeastern part of Turkey has the highest precipitation total in the country, approaching 2500 mm per a year. It is therefore an important region as it frequently encounters with flash fl... Eastern Black Sea Region in northeastern part of Turkey has the highest precipitation total in the country, approaching 2500 mm per a year. It is therefore an important region as it frequently encounters with flash floods due to heavy rains. For future planning of water resources, environment and urbanization, it is important to know the expected behavior of hydrometeorological processes, mainly precipitation and flow. Due to these facts, in this study, homogeneity of long-term annual precipitation and streamflow series of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey is checked using double mass curve method and trends are determined by means of the Mann-Kendall test. The data network consists of 38 precipitation gauging stations and 40 flow gauging stations across the Eastern Black Sea Region. It is found that 27 precipitation stations out of 38 are homogeneous and no trend is available. Out of the remaining stations, nine are found non-homogeneous and four with trend. For annual flow data, it is found that 22 stations out of 40 are homogeneous and no trend is available. The remaining 18 stations are found non-homogeneous, among which 5 stations have trend at the same time. 展开更多
关键词 HOMOGENEITY trend Analysis Double Mass Curve mann-kendall test EASTERN Black Sea REGION TURKEY
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Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim, India 被引量:1
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作者 Shweta YADAV Proloy DEB +2 位作者 Sonu KUMAR Vanita PANDEY Pankaj Kumar PANDEY 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第2期302-315,共14页
Abstract: Estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performa... Abstract: Estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation (HARG) with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Penman Monteith (PM) method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim, India. The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET0 by 0.35 mm day^-1 whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model. In addition, this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site. Non- parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trend of eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration (ET0) for the period of 1985 - 2009. Trend of ET0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation. The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing (p ≤ 0.05) trend represented by higher Z-values, through MK test, for net radiation (Rn), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Train), especially in the first months of the year. Whereas, significant (0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05) decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) is observed throughout the year. Declining trend in sunshine duration, VPD and ET0 is found in spring (March - May) and monsoon (June - November) season. The result displays significant (0.01≤ p ≤0.05) decreasing ET0 trend between (June - December) except in July, exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET0 and other climatic variables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices, in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions. 展开更多
关键词 Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) Climatic variables trend analysis mann-kendall's test Monthly variation East Sikkim hilly region
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Trend and Periodicity of Temperature Time Series in Ontario 被引量:1
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作者 Syed Imran Ahmed Ramesh Rudra +1 位作者 Trevor Dickinson Motahir Ahmed 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2014年第3期272-288,共17页
The trends and periodicities in the annual and seasonal temperature time series at fifteen weather stations within Ontario Great Lakes Basins have been analyzed, for the period 1941-2005, using the statistical analyse... The trends and periodicities in the annual and seasonal temperature time series at fifteen weather stations within Ontario Great Lakes Basins have been analyzed, for the period 1941-2005, using the statistical analyses (Fourier series analysis, t-test, and Mann-Kendall test). The stations were spatially divided into three regions: northwest (NW), southwest (SW), and southeast (SE) to evaluate spatial variability in temperature. The results of the study reveal that the annual maximum mean temperature showed increasing trend for NW, and mixed trends for SW and SE regions. The variability was found to be more for northern stations as compared to southern stations for annual extreme minimum temperature. In addition, the trend slope per 100 years for the average annual extreme minimum temperature increased within the range of -0.8°C (Stratford) to 15°C (Porcupine). The seasonal analysis demonstrated that extreme maximum temperature has an increasing trend and maximum mean temperature has a decreasing trend during summer and winter. The extreme minimum temperature for winter illustrated an increasing trend (90%) with 22% statistically significant for NW region. For the SW region, the trend is also increasing (80%) for most of the temperature variables and 25% of temperature data were significantly increased in the SW region. The SE region stations showed overall very clear increasing trends (95%) for all the temperature variables. The data also showed that 47% of data were statistically significant in the SE region. The analysis of variance accounted for by trend, significant periodicities, and random component show that the pattern is similar for the percent of variance accounted for periodicities, and random component contribute dominantly for the four temperature variables and frost free days (FFD) for all three regions. Overall, the study reveals that the extreme minimum temperature is increasing annually and seasonally, with statistically significant at many stations. 展开更多
关键词 Time Series trend PERIODICITY mann-kendall test T-test FROST Free Days
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Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda during the Last Fifty Two Years 被引量:1
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作者 Bonfils Safari 《Journal of Environmental Protection》 2012年第6期538-551,共14页
Climate change and global warming are widely recognized as the most significant environmental dilemma the world is experiencing today. Recent studies have shown that the Earth’s surface air temperature has increased ... Climate change and global warming are widely recognized as the most significant environmental dilemma the world is experiencing today. Recent studies have shown that the Earth’s surface air temperature has increased by 0.6°C - 0.8°C during the 20th century, along with changes in the hydrological cycle. This has alerted the international community and brought great interest to climate scientists leading to several studies on climate trend detection at various scales. This paper examines the long-term modification of the near surface air temperature in Rwanda. Time series of near surface air temperature data for the period ranging from 1958 to 2010 for five weather observatories were collected from the Rwanda National Meteorological Service. Variations and trends of annual mean temperature time series were examined. The cumulative sum charts (CUSUM) and bootstrapping and the sequential version of the Mann Kendall Rank Statistic were used for the detection of abrupt changes. Regression analysis was performed for the trends and the Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic Test was used for the examination of their significance. Statistically significant abrupt changes and trends have been detected. The major change point in the annual mean temperature occurred around 1977-1979. The analysis of the annual mean temperature showed for all observatories a not very significant cooling trend during the period ranging from 1958 to 1977-1979 while a significant warming trend was furthermore observed for the period after the 1977-1979 where Kigali, the Capital of Rwanda, presented the highest values of the slope (0.0455/year) with high value of coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.6798), the Kendall’s tau statistic (M-K = 0.62), the Kendall Score (S = 328) with a two-sided p-value far less than the confidence level α of 5%). This is most likely explained by the growing population and increasing urbanization and industrialization the country has experienced, especially the Capital City Kigali, during the last decades. 展开更多
关键词 Climate Change Global WARMING trend Detection mann-kendall RANK Statistic test CUSUM and BOOTSTRAPPING Temperature Rwanda
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A Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall to Predict Climate Change for Northwestern Region of Bangladesh 被引量:1
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作者 Md. Didarul Islam Bhuyan Md. Mohymenul Islam Md. Ebrahim Khalil Bhuiyan 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2018年第2期115-134,共20页
Bangladesh is one in all the foremost climate vulnerable countries of the world. In recent years, climate change studies over the country get plenty of attention by the researchers and policy makers. A substantial qua... Bangladesh is one in all the foremost climate vulnerable countries of the world. In recent years, climate change studies over the country get plenty of attention by the researchers and policy makers. A substantial quantity of global climate change studies over the country use climate models to estimate future projections and uncertainties. Maximum temperature, precipitation and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of the 5th Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the available historical data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during the period 1981-2008 in the north-western region of Bangladesh and also the comparison between these two values. It has been found that average maximum temperature shows a positive trend of increase at a rate of 0.29°C and 5.3°C per century respectively, for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. But the rainfall is decreasing at a rate of 8.8 mm and 40.1 mm per century respectively for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. It is seen that July was the maximum monsoon rainfall month and January was the lowest rainfall month. The peak frequency is slightly smaller than 12 months, which indicates that the major events are occurring before ending a year compared to the previous year. According to MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data, future normal temperature on north-western region will be increased at a rate of 1.62°C during the period 2040-2100. 展开更多
关键词 trend Analysis mann-kendall test Sen’s Slope ESTIMATOR Z-test CMIP5 Model and PERIODICITY
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Estimating trends of the Mediterranean Sea level changes from tide gauge and satellite altimetry data (1993-2015)
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作者 TAIBI Hebib HADDAD Mahdi 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第4期1176-1185,共10页
The impact of climate change on sea level has received a great deal of attention by scientists worldwide. In this context, the problem of sea levels on global and regional scales have been analyzed in a number of stud... The impact of climate change on sea level has received a great deal of attention by scientists worldwide. In this context, the problem of sea levels on global and regional scales have been analyzed in a number of studies based on tide gauges observations and satellite altimetry measurements. This study focuses on trend estimates from 18 high-quality tide gauge stations along the Mediterranean Sea coast. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test was run at a 5% significance level for each of the 18 stations for the period of 1993-2015 (satellite altimetry era). The results of this test indicate that the trends for 17 stations were statistically significant and showed an increase (no significant trend was observed only at one station). The rates of sea level change for the 17 stations that exhibit significant trends, estimated using seasonal Sen's approach, range after correction for Vertical Land Motion (VLM) from 1.48 to 8.72 mm/a for the period 1993-2015. Furthermore, the magnitude of change at the location of each tide gauge station was estimated using the satellite altimetry measurements. Thus, the results obtained agree with those from the tide-gauge data analysis. 展开更多
关键词 sea level TIDAL height SATELLITE ALTIMETRY trend analysis mann-kendall test Sen's slope ESTIMATES
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Can MODIS Detect Trends in Aerosol Optical Depth over Land?
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作者 Xuehua FAN Xiang'ao XIA Hongbin CHEN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第2期135-145,共11页
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite has been collect- ing valuable data about the Earth system for more than 14 years, and one of the benefits of this is t... The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite has been collect- ing valuable data about the Earth system for more than 14 years, and one of the benefits of this is that it has made it possible to detect the long-term variation in aerosol loading across the globe. However, the long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends derived from MODIS need careful validation and assessment, especially over land. Using AOD products with at least 70 months' worth of measurements collected during 2002-15 at 53 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites over land, Mann-Kendall (MK) trends in AOD were derived and taken as the ground truth data for evaluating the corresponding results from MOD|S onboard Aqua. The results showed that the AERONET AOD trends over all sites in Europe and North Amer- ica, as well as most sites in Africa and Asia, can be reproduced by MODIS/Aqua. However, disagreement in AOD trends between MODIS and AERONET was found at a few sites in Australia and South America. The AOD trends calculated from AERONET instantaneous data at the MODIS overpass times were consistent with those from AERONET daily data, which suggests that the AOD trends derived from satellite measurements of 1-2 overpasses may be representative of those from daily measurements. 展开更多
关键词 MODIS AERONET Aerosol Optical Depth mann-kendall trend test
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