Seasonal freezing-thawing process and hydrothermal characteristics of soil on the Loess Plateau, China

In seasonally frozen soil regions,freezing-thawing action and hydrothermal effect have strong influence on physical and mechanical behavior of shallow soil.A field experiment on the Loess Plateau in Northwest China was carried out to analyze the freezing-thawing process and hydrothermal characteristics of shallow soil considering the climate influence.The results show that the maximum seasonal freezing depth under bare ground surface in this area is from 20 cm to 50 cm.The ground temperature shows a similar changing trend with air temperature,but it has lagged behind the air temperature,and the ground temperature amplitude exponentially decreases with the increase of soil depth.The seasonally frozen soil has experienced four typical stages:unfrozen period,alternate freezing period,freezing period and alternate thawing period.The freezing-thawing process is characterized by unidirectional freezing and bidirectional thawing.The water content of shallow soil is significantly affected by air temperature,evaporation and precipitation,and the soil water content shows a"low-high-low"changing trend with the increase of depth.The soil temperature and water content interact with each other,and are often coupled.The variation trend of soil moisture with time is consistent with the change trend of the ground temperature with time in each soil layer,andthe degree of consistency is higher in the near surface soil than that in the lower layer.Also,the spatial-temporal characteristics of soil moisture and temperature is that the volumetric water content and ground temperatureof near surface soil have strong variability,and the range valueKa and coefficient of variation Cvof soil water content and ground temperaturein different seasons show a decreasing trend with the increase of depth.

Field monitoring of railroad embankment vibration responses in seasonally frozen regions

To investigate the vibration characteristics of a railway subgrade in different seasons, three field experiments were carried out in the seasonally frozen Daqing area of China during spring, smnmer, and winter. The vibration characteristics and attenuation rates of the subgrade induced by passing trains were investigated, and the influences of the season, train speed, train type, train load, and number of train compartments are described in this paper. The results show that： （1） near the rail track the vibration in the vertical direction was more significant than in the lateral and longitudinal directions, and as the distance from the railway track increased, the acceleration amplitudes and the attenuation rates all decreased in all three directions; （2） the acceleration amplitudes and at- tenuation rates decreased in the three different study seasons as the distance from the railway track increased, and the attenuation rates in the freezing period were the largest; and （3） the acceleration amplitude induced by a freight train was greater than that by a passenger train, and the subgrade vibration increased with increasing passenger train speeds when the number of train compart- ments was similar. These results have great significance for enhanced understanding of the characteristics of wain-induced vibra- tion embankment response in seasonally frozen regions, and provide essential field monitoring data on train-induced vibrations in order to improve the performance criteria of railroading in seasonally frozen regions.

Response Relationship between the Seasonal Freezing-Thawing Process of Soil and Spatial Factor Changes in the Dayekou Basin of the Qilian Mountains

Objective: In this study, the influence and response relationship between the seasonal freezing-thawing process of soil and the spatial factor changes in the management and utilization of water resource processes were explored. Methods: The monitoring equipment in this study was arranged at different altitudes, gradients, and slope directions, such as the typical forest sample area in the Dayekou Basin of the Qilian Mountains. The spatial variation characteristics of the seasonal freezing-thawing process of the soil were analyzed, and a regression model was established. Results: 1) The results of this study determined that the rate of the soil’s freezing increased with the altitude in a trend of volatility. However, the rate of the thawing of the frozen soil was found to have an opposite trend. The variation degree of the freezing-thawing process increased with the altitude in a trend of volatility. The end time of the approximate soil freezing with altitude increased in a volatility trend ahead of schedule. However, the opposite was observed in the thawing rate of the frozen soil;2) The rate of the soil’s freezing under the mosses of the spruce forest at an altitude of 3028 m was found to be the lowest. However, in the sub-alpine scrub forest at an altitude of 3300 m, a maximum in the spatial ordering was observed, with an average of 1.9 cm·d-1. The thawing rate of the frozen soil in scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3300 m was found to be minimal. However, in the sunny slope grassland at an altitude of 2946 m, a maximum in the spatial ordering was observed, with an average of 1.5 cm·d-1. In the spatial ordering of the variation degree of the process of freezing-thawing with an average of 1.2, the scrub-grassland at an altitude of 2518 m was found to be the lowest, and the scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3195 m was also low;3) The soil freezing began on approximately October 20th, and the rate of soil freezing gradually became reduced. The arrival time of the frozen soil of up to 150 cm in depth in sub-alpine scrub forest was first observed at an altitude of 3028 m. However, the scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3100 m did not become frozen until approximately January 12th on average. Then, the thawing rate of the frozen soil increased gradually. The end time of the thawing was earliest observed in the sunny slope grassland at an altitude of 2946 m. However, the scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3100 m was found to be the last to thaw, and averaged approximately July 27th. The average durations of the freezing and thawing of the soil were 77 and 121 days, respectively, and the average duration of the entire process of freezing-thawing was 199 days;4) This study’s established regression models of the duration time of frozen soil’s thaw, and the rate of frozen soil’s thaw, all passed the R test of goodness of fit, F test of variance, and t test. Conclusions: The characteristics of the seasonal freezing-thawing process of the soil with the spatial changes were seasonal. However, the characteristics under the different spatial factor influences were not the same.

Field experiment of subgrade vibration induced by passing train in a seasonally frozen region of Daqing

The vibration characteristics and attenuation of the subgrade caused by passing trains in a seasonally frozen region of Daqing, China are investigated. Three field experiments were conducted during different times through the year, in normal, freezing and thawing periods, respectively, and the influence of the season, train speed and train type, is described in this paper. The results show that： （1） the vertical component is the greatest among the three components of the measured vibration near the rail track, and as the distance to the railway track increases, the dominant vibration depends on the season. （2） Compared with the vibration in the normal period, the vertical and longitudinal vibrations increase while the lateral vibration decreases in the freezing period. However, in the thawing period, the vertical and longitudinal vibrations decrease, and the lateral vibration increases. （3） As train speeds increase, the subgrade vibration increases. （4） The vibration induced by a freight train is greater than by a passenger train. These observations provide a better understanding of the vibration and dynamic stability of the subgrade and may be useful in developing criteria for railway and building construction in cold regions.

Numerical Study of Impacts of Soil Moisture on the Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles of Sensible/Latent Heat Fluxes over Semi-arid Region

The semi-arid regions, as climatic and ecosystem transitional zones, are the most vulnerable to global environmental change. Earlier researches indicate that the semi-arid regions are characterized by strong landatmosphere coupling in which soil moisture is the crucial variable in land surface processes. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of the sensible/latent heat fluxes to soil moisture during the growing season based on the enhanced observations at Tongyu in the Jilin province of China, a reference site of international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project （CEOP） in the semi-arid regions, by using a sophisticated land surface model （NCAR_CLM3.0）. Comparisons between the observed and simulated sensible/latent heat fluxes indicate that the soil moisture has obvious effects on the sensible/latent heat fluxes in terms of diurnal cycle and seasonal evolution. Better representation of the soil moisture could improve the model performance to a large degree. Therefore, for the purpose of simulating the land-atmosphere interaction and predicting the climate and water resource changes in semi-arid regions, it is necessary to enhance the description of the soil moisture distribution both in the way of observation and its treatment in land surface models.

Influences of Seasonal Freezing and Thawing on Soil Water-stable Aggregates in Orchard in High Cold Region,Northeast China

Soil aggregate stability,as an important indicator of soil functions,may be affected by seasonal freezing and thawing(SFT)and land use in high cold and wet regions.Therefore,comprehensive understanding the effects of SFT on aggregate stability in orchards during winter and spring is crucial to develop appropriate management strategies that can effectively alleviate the degradation of soil quality to ensure sustainable development of orchard ecosystems.To determine the mechanism of degradation in orchard soil quality,the effects of SFT on the stability of water-stable aggregates were examined in apple-pear orchards(Pyrus ussuriensis var.ovoidea)of four different ages(11,25,40,and 63 yr)on 0 to 5%slopes before freezing and after thawing from October 2015 to June 2016 in Longjing City,Yanbian Prefecture,Northeast China,involving a comparison of planted versus adjacent uncultivated lands(control).Soil samples were collected to investigate water-stable aggregate stability in three incremental soil layers(0–20,20–40 and 40–60 cm).In the same samples,iron oxide,organic matter,and clay contents of the soil were also determined.Results showed that the destructive influences of SFT on water-stable aggregates were more pronounced with the increased orchards ages,and SFT exerted severe effects on water-stable aggregates of older orchards(40 and 63 yr)than juvenile orchards.Undergoing SFT,the soil instability index and the percentage of aggregate destruction increased by mean 0.15 mm and 1.86%,the degree of aggregation decreased by mean 1.32%,and the erosion resistance weakened,which consequently led to aggregate stability decreased.In addition,soil free,amorphous,and crystalline iron oxide as well as soil organic matter and clay contents are all important factors affecting the stability of water-stable aggregates,and their changes in their contents were consistent with those in the stability of water-stable aggregates.The results of this study suggest that long-term planting fruit trees can exacerbate the damaging effects of SFT on aggregate stability and further soil erosion increases and nutrient losses in an orchard,which hider sustainable use of soil and the productivity orchards.

Study on potential evapotranspiration and wet-dry condition in the seasonal frozen soil region of northern Tibetan Plateau

This study was based on the CEOP/CAMP-Tibet observed data at AWS （Automatic Weather Station） of MS3478 in the seasonal frozen soil region of northern Tibetan Plateau from March 2007 to February 2008. The variation characteristics of PE （potential evapotransph＇ation） were analyzed based on the Penman-Monteith method recommended by FAO （the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na- lions）. The contributions of dynamic, thermal and water factors to PE were discussed, and the wet-dry condition of the plateau region was further studied. The results indicated that daily PE was between 0.52 mm and 6.46 mm for the whole year. Monthly PE was over 107 mm from May to September, but decreased to less than 41 mm from November to February. Annual PE was 1,037.8mm. In the summer, thermal PE was significantly more than dynamic PE, but conversely in the winter. Annual variation of thermal PE was of sine wave pattern. In addition, drought and semi-drought climate lasted for a long time while semi-humid climate was short. The effect of water and dynamic factors on PE varied considerably with the seasons. Annual variation of thermal PE was of sine wave pattern.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS OF BASIC CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION DURING RAINING SEASONS IN REGIONS SOUTH OF CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9(S -1(S, 121(E - 129(E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.

The Effects of Regional Climate and Aging on Seasonal Variations in Chinese Women’s Skin Characteristics

OBJECTIVES: Skin characteristics change depending on the external environment such as UV, temperature and humidity. But the research how to affect the regional climate, age and seasonal variation on the skin conditions was not well studied. Therefore, we investigated the seasonal variation in the skin by comparing Beijing women and Guangzhou women by age groups. METHODS: 440 healthy Chinese women participated in this study. The skin hydration, sebum secretion, TEWL and skin pH were measured on the cheek front. All the parameters were analyzed in terms of the age, season and region. RESULTS: The skin hydration in Beijing was lower than that in Guangzhou and significantly decreased during winter than summer. The sebum secretion in their 20s and 30s was significantly high in summer in both regions, and this phenomenon was more remarkable in Guangzhou (p CONCLUSIONS: Skin hydration and barrier function decreased more during a cold, dry winter than summer. The barrier dysfunctions such as an increase in TEWL and pH occurred more commonly in old age groups. The greater the differences between summer and winter climates, the greater damage to skin barrier and skin hydration. The sebum secretion was more affected by hot, humid summers. Further, the aged skin was influenced by seasonal variation except for sebum secretion.

Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate,Iran

Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.

Shear strength of frozen clay under freezing-thawing cycles using triaxial tests

Using a new low-temperature dynamic triaxial apparatus, the influence law of freezing-thawing cycles on clay shear strength is studied. In this research, the concept of correction coefficients of freezing-thawing cycles on clay static strength, cohesion and internal friction angles is proposed, and the change patterns, correction curves and regressive formulae of clay static strength, cohesion and internal friction angles under freezing-thawing cycles are given. The test results indicate that with increasing numbers of freezing-thawing cycles, the clay static strength and cohesion decrease exponentially but the internal friction angle increases exponentially. The performance of static strength, cohesion and internal friction angles are different with increasing numbers of freezing-thawing cycles, i.e., the static strength decreases constantly until about 30% of the initial static strength prior to the freezing-thawing cycling and then stays basically stable. After 5-7 freezing-thawing cycles, the cohesion decreases gradually to about 70% of the initial cohesion. The internal friction angle increases about 20% after the first freezing-thawing cycle, then increases gradually close to a stable value which is an increase of about 40% of the internal friction angle. The freezing-thawing process can increase the variation of the density of the soil samples; therefore, strict density discreteness standards of frozen soil sample preparation should be established to ensure the reliability of the test results.

Aerosol Optical Properties and Radiative Impacts in the Pearl River Delta Region of China during the Dry Season

Aerosol optical properties and direct radiative effects on surface irradiance were examined using seven years （2006-2012） of Cimel sunphotometer data collected at Panyu--the main atmospheric composition monitoring station in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region of China. During the dry season （October to February）, mean values of the aerosol optical depth （AOD） at 550 nm, the Angstrom exponent, and the single scattering albedo at 440 nm （SSA） were 0.54, 1.33 and 0.87, respectively. About 90% of aerosols were dominated by fine-mode strongly absorbing particles. The size distribution was bimodal, with fine-mode particles dominating. The fine mode showed a peak at a radius of 0.12 μm in February and October （- 0.10 μm3 μm-2）. The mean diurnal shortwave direct radiative forcing at the surface, inside the atmosphere （FATM）, and at the top of the atmosphere, was -33.4± 7.0, 26.1 ± 5.6 and -7.3 ±2.7 W m-2, respectively. The corresponding mean values of aerosol direct shortwave radiative forcing per AOD were -60.0 ±7.8, 47.3 ± 8.3 and -12.8 ±3.1 W m-2, respectively. Moreover, during the study period, FATM showed a significant decreasing trend （p 〈 0.01） and SSA increased from 0.87 in 2006 to 0.91 in 2012, suggesting a decreasing trend of absorbing particles being released into the atmosphere. Optical properties and radiative impacts of the absorbing particles can be used to improve the accuracy of inversion algorithms for satellite-based aerosol retrievals in the PRD region and to better constrain the climate effect of aerosols in climate models.

Accounting for the solar radiation in thermal regime prediction for railway subgrade in cold regions

This paper presents a comparative analysis of simulation processes of seasonal freezing-thawing of railway subgrade and permafrost degradation, with and without accounting for solar radiation. Also, the effect of sun screens to reduce the degradation of subgrade permafrost under different climatic conditions is numerically substantiated. And finally, the temperature criterion of the origination of permafrost is illustrated.

Advances in studies on concrete durability and countermeasures against freezing-thawing effects

This paper is a meta-analysis of recent domestic and foreign research on freezing-thawing effects on concrete durability. The main theories on the mechanisms of freeze-thaw damage to concrete are introduced： the hydrostatic pressure theory, the osmotic pressure theory, the critical water saturation degree theory, the dual mechanism theory, and the micro-ice-crystal lens model theory. The influence laws of freezing-thawing on the mechanical properties of concrete are summarized, and countermeasures to improve concrete durability in freezing-thawing circumstances are presented. This work provides valuable references for future engineering constructions in cold regions.

Performance of Convective Parameterization Schemes in Asia Using RegCM:Simulations in Three Typical Regions for the Period 1998–2002

This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes（CPSs） in the Regional Climate Model（version 4.3）（Reg CM4.3） over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean（ELGO） scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS（Grell/Emanuel） over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain（3H） and Tibetan Plateau（TP） regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d^-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan（NP）. In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.

Impacts of Climate Change on Net Primary Productivity in Arid and Semiarid Regions of China

In recent years, with the constant change in the global climate, the effect of climate factors on net primary productivity(NPP) has become a hot research topic. However, two opposing views have been presented in this research area: global NPP increases with global warming, and global NPP decreases with global warming. The main reasons for these two opposite results are the tremendous differences among seasonal and annual climate variables, and the growth of plants in accordance with these climate variables. Therefore, it will fail to fully clarify the relation between vegetation growth and climate changes by research that relies solely on annual data. With seasonal climate variables, we may clarify the relation between vegetation growth and climate changes more accurately. Our research examined the arid and semiarid areas in China(ASAC), which account for one quarter of the total area of China. The ecological environment of these areas is fragile and easily affected by human activities. We analyzed the influence of climate changes, especially the changes in seasonal climate variables, on NPP, with Climatic Research Unit(CRU) climatic data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) satellite remote data, for the years 2000–2010. The results indicate that: for annual climatic data, the percentage of the ASAC in which NPP is positively correlated with temperature is 66.11%, and 91.47% of the ASAC demonstrates a positive correlation between NPP and precipitation. Precipitation is more positively correlated with NPP than temperature in the ASAC. For seasonal climatic data, the correlation between NPP and spring temperature shows significant regional differences. Positive correlation areas are concentrated in the eastern portion of the ASAC, while the western section of the ASAC generally shows a negative correlation. However, in summer, most areas in the ASAC show a negative correlation between NPP and temperature. In autumn, precipitation is less important in the west, as opposed to the east, in which it is critically important. Temperatures in winter are a limiting factor for NPP throughout the region. The findings of this research not only underline the importance of seasonal climate variables for vegetation growth, but also suggest that the effects of seasonal climate variables on NPP should be explored further in related research in the future.

Seasonal Differences in Visitor Perceptions: A Comparative Study of Three Mountainous National Parks in Central Europe

This paper compares the views and attitudes of visitors to three key mountain national parks and Biosphere Reserves: Sumava National Park (Sumava NP, Czech Republic), Krkonose National Park (KRNAP, Czech Republic) and Karkonoski Park Narodowy (KPN, Poland). A large numbers of people visit these destinations both in the summer (e.g. hikers and cyclists) and in the winter (e.g. hikers and skiers), which threatens sustainability and creates problems regarding the management of these areas. A comprehensive understanding of visitor use, including visitors’ attitudes and perceptions, is fundamental for effective park management. Most research in these national parks is carried out during the summer season, therefore different results in the winter season are expected. Using a standardised socio-environmental survey we attempt to find seasonal differences between visitors and their opinions. A total of 2252 questionnaires were gathered. There were 13 common questions for these three national parks, three of them yielded significantly different results between the two seasons (visitors’ nationality, type of accommodation and financial costs). Other differences were detected in one or two national parks.

Carbon stocks in a highly fragmented landscape with seasonally dry tropical forest in the Neotropics

Background:Global modeling of carbon storage and sequestration often mischaracterizes unique ecosystems such as the seasonally dry tropical forest of the central region of the Gulf of Mexico,because species diversity is usually underestimated,as is their carbon content.In this study,aboveground and soil carbon stocks were estimated to determine the climate mitigation potential of this highly degraded landscape(<25%of forest cover).Results:Tree species in the study area had carbon content values that were 30%–40%higher than the standard value proposed by the IPCC(i.e.,50%).Tropical oak forest in the region,despite its restricted distribution and low species richness,accounted for the highest mean carbon stocks per unit area.The main factors driving spatial variability in carbon stocks were:maximum precipitation,soil organic matter,clay and silt content.No strong relationship was found between aboveground carbon stocks and soil organic carbon in the study area.Quanti-fication of carbon stocks is an important consideration in the assessment of the conservation value of remnants of native vegetation in human-modified landscapes.Conclusions:This study demonstrates the importance of the highly fragmented tropical dry regions of the Neo-tropics in maintaining landscape functionality and providing key ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration.Our results also highlight how crucial field-based studies are for strengthening the accuracy of global models.Furthermore,this approach reveals the real contribution of ecosystems that are not commonly taken into account in the mitigation of climate change effects.

Seasonal Customs of Jeollanam-do in South Korea

Seasonal customs, also called “ performances that take place w ith in a one year cycle ” , refer to a series of customs, patterns or norms practiced periodically and habitually onspecific days w ith in the regular cycle of the four seasons.

Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most destructive weather phenomena to impact on tropical regions, and reliable predicttion of TC seasonal activity is important for preparedness of coastal communities in the tropics. In investigating prospects for improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans, including the Australian Region, we used linear regression to model the relationship between the annual number of cyclones and three indices (SOI, NI?O3.4 and 5VAR) describing the strength of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The correlation between the number of Australian Region (90?E - 160?E) TCs and the indices was strong (3-month 5VAR ?0.65, NI?O3.4 ?0.62 and SOI +0.64), and a cross-validation assessment demonstrated that the models which used July-August-September indices and the temporal trend as the predictors performed well. The predicted number of TCs in the Australian Region for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 seasons was 14 (11 recorded) and 12, respectively. We also found that the correlation between the numbers of TCs in the western South Indian region (30?E to 90?E) and the eastern South Pacific region (east of 170?E) and the indices was weak, and it is therefore not sensible to build linear regression forecast models for these regions. We conclude that for the Australian Region, the new statistical model provides prospects for improvement in forecasting skill compared to the statistical model currently employed at the National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The next step towards improving the skill of TC seasonal prediction in the various regions of the Southern Hemisphere will be undertaken through analysis of outputs from the dynamical climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia).