Warm water wake off northeast Vietnam in the South China Sea

Due to orographic blockage, a weak wind wake occurs in summer off northeast Vietnam in the South China Sea. Under the wind wake, warm water is observed from both high-resolution satellite data and hydrographic observations. The wake of warm water forms in June, continues to mature in July and August, starts to decay in September, and disappears in October. The warm water wake also shows robust diurnal variation – it intensifies during the day and weakens in the night. Warm water wakes can be generated through wind-induced mixing and thermal（latent heat flux） processes. In this paper, a mixed layer model is used to evaluate the relative importance of the two processes on seasonal and diurnal timescales, respectively. The results demonstrate that thermal processes make a greater contribution to the wake than wind-induced mixing processes on a seasonal timescale, while the warm water wake is dominated by wind-induced mixing processes on a diurnal timescale.

Progress and Prospects of Research on Subseasonal to Seasonal Variability and Prediction of the East Asian Monsoon

Subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)variability represents the atmospheric disturbance on the 10–90-day timescale,which is an important bridge linking weather and climate.In 2015,China Meteorological Administration(CMA)listed the S2S prediction project that was initiated by WMO programs three years ago as one of its key tasks.After five years of research,significant progress has been made on the mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon(EAM)S2S variability,related impact of climate change,as well as the predictability on the S2S timescale of numerical models.The S2S variability of the EAM is closely linked to extreme persistent climate events in China and is an important target for seasonal climate prediction.However,under the influence of global warming and the interactions among climate systems,the S2S variability of the EAM is so complex that its prediction remains a great challenge.This paper reviews the past achievement and summarizes the recent progress in research of the EAM S2S variability and prediction,including characteristics of the main S2S modes of the EAM,their impact on the extreme events in China,effects of external and internal forcing on the S2S variability,as well as uncertainties of climate models in predicting the S2S variability,with a focus on the progress achieved by the S2S research team of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.The present bottlenecks,future directions,and critical research recommendations are also analyzed and presented.