Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the...Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.展开更多
基金Supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program("973"Program)(2012CB956204)Special Project for Climate Change of China Meteorological Administration(CCSF2011-4)
文摘Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.
