In view of the heterogeneity of natural gas consumption in different sectors in China,this paper utilizes Bayesian network(BN)to study the driving factors of natural gas consumption in power generation,chemical and in...In view of the heterogeneity of natural gas consumption in different sectors in China,this paper utilizes Bayesian network(BN)to study the driving factors of natural gas consumption in power generation,chemical and industrial fuel sectors.Combined with Bayesian model averaging(BMA)and scenario analysis,the gas consumption of the three sectors is predicted.The results show that the expansion of urbanization will promote the gas consumption of power generation.The optimization of industrial structure and the increase of industrial gas consumption will enhance the gas consumption of chemical sector.The decrease of energy intensity and the increase of gas consumption for power generation will promote the gas consumption of industrial fuel.Moreover,the direct influencing factors of gas price are urbanization,energy structure and energy intensity.The direct influencing factors of environmental governance intensity are gas price,urbanization,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure.In 2025,under the high development scenario,China’s gas consumption for power generation,chemical and industrial fuel sectors will be 66.034,36.552 and 109.414 billion cubic meters respectively.From 2021 to 2025,the average annual growth rates of gas consumption of the three sectors will be 4.82%,2.18%and 4.43%respectively.展开更多
Using province-level data in China for the period of 1999-2015,we examine the mechanisms through which sectoral differences in leverage ratio and productivity affect macro leverage ratios.The state-owned sector undert...Using province-level data in China for the period of 1999-2015,we examine the mechanisms through which sectoral differences in leverage ratio and productivity affect macro leverage ratios.The state-owned sector undertakes a large number of public services and plays an irreplaceable role in solving market failures and providing public goods.However,in the case of information asymmetry and incentive incompatibility,these policy burdens affect the leverage optimization and productivity improvement of the state-owned sector.From the perspective of sectoral differences,we therefore decompose the change in macro leverage ratio into leverage ratio structure effect and productivity structure effect,and then substantiate the impact mechanisms of these two effects on macro leverage ratios.Overall,our conclusions provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for structural deleveraging in China.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71874133)Shaanxi Province“Special Support Program for High Level Talents”+1 种基金The Youth Innovation Team of Shaanxi UniversitiesGraduate Innovation Fund in Xidian University
文摘In view of the heterogeneity of natural gas consumption in different sectors in China,this paper utilizes Bayesian network(BN)to study the driving factors of natural gas consumption in power generation,chemical and industrial fuel sectors.Combined with Bayesian model averaging(BMA)and scenario analysis,the gas consumption of the three sectors is predicted.The results show that the expansion of urbanization will promote the gas consumption of power generation.The optimization of industrial structure and the increase of industrial gas consumption will enhance the gas consumption of chemical sector.The decrease of energy intensity and the increase of gas consumption for power generation will promote the gas consumption of industrial fuel.Moreover,the direct influencing factors of gas price are urbanization,energy structure and energy intensity.The direct influencing factors of environmental governance intensity are gas price,urbanization,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure.In 2025,under the high development scenario,China’s gas consumption for power generation,chemical and industrial fuel sectors will be 66.034,36.552 and 109.414 billion cubic meters respectively.From 2021 to 2025,the average annual growth rates of gas consumption of the three sectors will be 4.82%,2.18%and 4.43%respectively.
基金supported financially by the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.21FJYB005)the China Postdoctoral ScienceFoundation(No.2019M663758).
文摘Using province-level data in China for the period of 1999-2015,we examine the mechanisms through which sectoral differences in leverage ratio and productivity affect macro leverage ratios.The state-owned sector undertakes a large number of public services and plays an irreplaceable role in solving market failures and providing public goods.However,in the case of information asymmetry and incentive incompatibility,these policy burdens affect the leverage optimization and productivity improvement of the state-owned sector.From the perspective of sectoral differences,we therefore decompose the change in macro leverage ratio into leverage ratio structure effect and productivity structure effect,and then substantiate the impact mechanisms of these two effects on macro leverage ratios.Overall,our conclusions provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for structural deleveraging in China.
