Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

New national seismic zoning map of China

A new set of seismic zoning maps were published in August 1, 2001. It includes two maps, one is the seismic zon-ing map of peak acceleration, and the other is the zoning map of the characteristic period of the response spectrum. The exceeding probability of the map is 10% within 50 years. The scale of the map is 1:4 000 000. These maps serve as the national standard. The background of this project, technical approach and key scientific measures, the basic feature and the application of the maps are introduced in this paper.

Complex of general seismic zoning maps OSR-2017 of Uzbekistan

The quantitative assessment of seismic hazard of Uzbekistan has been examined,and new maps of seismic zoning has been developed.Quasihomogeneous seismological areas and seism-generating zones are considered as seismic sources,based on the analysis of seismotectonic data.The seismological parametrization of seismic sources has been carried out,including determination of parameters of earthquake’s reoccurrence for different power levels,seismic potential and a predominant type motion in the source of occurring earthquakes.The reoccurrence parameters of seismic sources were both determined by directly from Gutenberg-Richter dependence law and using summation and distribution methods.Setting were conducted separately for a sample of strong(M≥5)and weak(M<5)earthquakes.The seismic potential Mmax of seismic active zones was determined by seismological and seismotectonic methods.The predominant type of movement in the faulting for each seismic source is reverse fault.Regional regularities of seismic intensity attenuation with distance of different power levels are determined.The seismic hazard is expressed in points of a macro seismic scale,in velocities and accelerations of ground motions,and it is characterized by calculated seismic intensity with the set probability(P=0.9,P=0.95,P=0.98 and P=0.99)not exceed within 50 years in the constructed maps.In seismic zoning map,the seismic intensity was in average soil conditions.The developed complex of maps considers a number of uncertainties of the input parameters in relation to both incompleteness of initial seismological and seismotectonic data,as well the probabilistic nature of seismic process and seismic intensity.The factors of uncertainty of the input parameters are taken into account by constructing a logic tree.The constructed maps of the general seismic zoning are intended for imple menting antiseismic actions in Uzbekistan.

The Results and Comparison of "Logical-Tree" Seismic Zoning in the Panxi Area

On the basis of the technological route of seismic hazard analysis,the methods for determining seismicity parameters,such as b value,annual occurrence rate,and the seismic spatial distribution function,are discussed.Then,the seismic intensity zoning in Panxi area in Southwest China is carried out by applying the "logical-tree,"which is made up of multi-parameter schemes.It is clearly shown from the results that seismic intensity zoning is influenced by many uncertain factors and it is necessary to seek a certain balance between seismic safety and investment interest and a good way,with the present limited knowledge level,to obtain seismic intensity zoning is through the "logical-tree" method.

Evaluation of Uncertainty of Earthquake Parameters for the Purpose of Seismic Zoning of Iran

An efficient procedure is used for explicit description and evaluation of uncertainty of earthquake parameters in the uniform catalog of earthquakes in Iran and neighboring regions.An inadequate number of local and regional seismographic stations,poor station distribution,and Inadequacy of velocity models have resulted in conspicuous uncertainty in different parameters of recorded events.In a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis such uncertainties should be considered.Uncertainty of magnitude and location of events are evaluated for three different time periods,namely,historical,early instrumental,and modern instrumental time periods,for which existing seismological information differ widely in quantity,quality,and type.It is concluded that an uncertainty of 0.2-0.3 units of magnitude and 10-15 km in epicenter determinations should be considered in the most favorable conditions.None of the hypocenters of earthquakes in Iran can be considered as reliable,unless supported by other information such as

The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone

In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.

Preliminary report of coseismic surface rupture(part)of Türkiye's M_(W)7.8 earthquake by remote sensing interpretation

Both M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes occurred in southeastern Türkiye on February 6,2023,resulting in numerous buildings collapsing and serious casualties.Understanding the distribution of coseismic surface ruptures and secondary disasters surrounding the epicentral area is important for post-earthquake emergency and disaster assessments.High-resolution Maxar and GF-2 satellite data were used after the events to extract the location of the rupture surrounding the first epicentral area.The results show that the length of the interpreted surface rupture zone(part of)is approximately 75 km,with a coseismic sinistral dislocation of 2-3 m near the epicenter;however,this reduced to zero at the tip of the southwest section of the East Anatolia Fault Zone.Moreover,dense soil liquefaction pits were triggered along the rupture trace.These events are in the western region of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and result from the subduction and collision of the Arabian and African Plates toward the Eurasian Plate.The western region of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent areas are in the eastern section of the Eurasian Seismic Belt,where seismic activity is controlled by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian Plates.Both China and Türkiye have independent tectonic histories.

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)that spans January 1,2005 to July 31,2020.We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data,resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet.The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit.We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD,which shows a more defined structure at depth.We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament,as defined by the magnetic anomaly,supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ.We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir,which is located about 5 km from the epicenter of the M_(W) 4.4 December 12,2018 Decatur,Tennessee earthquake,and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region.We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes.Our results show limited evidence for hydrologicallydriven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ,which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan and Almaty city in peak ground accelerations

As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.

The Middle and Lower Cambrian salt tectonics in the central Tarim Basin,China:A case study based on strike-slip fault characterization

Due to the considerable depth of the salt layers and the lack of calibration by exploratory drilling,the interpretation of the Middle and Lower Cambrian salt formations in the central Tarim Basin poses a challenge.In this paper,we apply the coupling and decoupling deformation theory in salt tectonics to analyze the No.7 fault mapped in the seismic datasets by the response characteristics of the Middle and Lower Cambrian layers.By quantifying the stratigraphic framework of the Middle and Lower Cambrian strata,we define the position of the salt layer with the seismic data.Structural decoupling is observed in the Middle and Lower Cambrian sequences in the Shuntuoguole Low Uplift,while deformation coupling is observed in these two sequences in the Shaya Uplift.

Potential rupture surface model and its ap-plication on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis （PSHA） methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi （Jiji） earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. （1） This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; （2） The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.

Parameter sensitivity analyses in seismic hazard

It is stressed in this paper that the seismic hazard analysis is a complex system with multi parameters and its parameter sensitivity should be studied as a whole. We have inspected the effects of parameters continuing variation on the result and the effects of exceeding probability and upper bound magnitude of potential source on the parameter sensitivity. Some useful cognitions were got. We have overall calculated the interactions among the parameters including spatial distribution function of earthquake and suggested the concept of relative interaction. The relative interaction is not great than 10% with annual exceeding probability 2×10 -3 . The relative interaction between upper bound magnitude and annual mean rate and the one between upper bound magnitude and space distribution function are 17% and 22% respectively for potantial sources higher upper bound magnitudes in annual exceeding probability 10 -4 . It is convenient to judge whether considering the interactions in actual application. The importance and necessity of calculating the result of the probabilistic distribution are indicated. The effect of the result distribution by different parameter level weights is analyzed. The whole picture of multi parameter sensitivity is revealed. It makes necessary preparation for the reasonable uncertainty correction.

Seismic performance of high-rise buildings in selected regions in Saudi Arabia according to different seismic codes

The design code for each country is revised and updated based on an expected zone’s seismic intensities,geotechnical site classifications,structural systems,construction materials and methods of construction in order to provide more realistic considerations of seismic demand,seismic response,and seismic capacity.Based on the aforementioned provisions,structures designed according to different seismic codes may yield different performances for the same level of hazard.This study aims to investigate and compare the induced responses related to the earthquake-resistant design of reinforced concrete(RC)buildings according to the Saudi building code(SBC-301),American code(ASCE-7),uniform building code(UBC-97),and European code(EC-8).In order to account for the provision regarding the hazard specification and its effect on the induced seismic responses,four regions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with different seismic levels are selected.The code provisions related to the specification of site classification and its effect on the induced design base shear are investigated as well.Significant differences are observed in the induced responses with the variation in seismic design codes for the considered seismic hazards and site classifications.

Correlation between plate age and layer separation of double seismic zones

Global seismicity catalogs are sufficient for characterizing double seismic zones （DSZs） in subducting slab and facilitate to estimate layer separation without inconsistent uncertainties as local catalogs. Previous studies have shown the correlation between DSZs layer separation and plate age while correlation for those younger than -60 Ma is suspicious. The lacking of DSZs with layer separation less than 10 km further makes it difficult to precisely estimate such correlation. Thus, we incorporate eight DSZs data determined through local seismicity into globally-determined dataset and reexamine such correlation. The best fitting results show that both a linear model and a square root of plate age can mathematically fit the layer separation well. However, it is difficult to distinguish these two models when plate age is greater than -20 Ma since their difference is less than 2 km. However, if extrapolation is possible, both models should provide physical information that DSZs will not form if there is no subducting lithosphere. As a result, the DSZs cannot be produced until the oceanic lithospheric age becomes greater than 0.9 Ma in the square root model while the linear model gives a misleading result. As such the square root model demonstrates the relationship physically better than the linear one, it still needs further test in the future with more available data, nevertheless, our study might also provide evidence for the suggestion that the plate age is a primary control factor of the DSZs geometry as well as the subducting process which disregards any local tectonic stresses.

Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.

An Analysis on Correlativity between Large Earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir and Tienshan Seismic Zone

In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are governed mainly by the pushing from Hindu Kush-Pamir syntax. Secondly,the relationship of large earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region and the Tienshan seismic zone is investigated,and synchronization features are found existing in the grouped large earthquakes between the large earthquakes in two regions. The relationship between intermediate-focus large earthquakes in Hindu Kush-Pamir and shallow large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone is also discussed. The same synchronization characteristics are found,and the intensity and frequency of intermediate-focus earthquakes are fiercer, while large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are more intense,with a wider distribution range. The above results confirm the geodynamic correlativity between Hindu Kush-Pamir and the Tienshan seismic zone from the viewpoint of seismicity.

Crust-mantle structure feature and the seismic activity of the main tectonic units in the North Tanlu fault zone

Using recent data of geoscience transaction in Northeast China, the author analyses and studies the crust-upper mantle structure feature of the North Tanlu fault zone. The result shows the crust-mantle structure are obvious difference at both sides of the North Tanlu fault zone. The fault activity and segmentation are closely related with abruptly change zone of the crust-upper mantle structure. There is a clear mirror image relationship between the big geomorphic shape and asthenosphere undulate, the former restricts tectonic stability and tectonic style of dif- ferent crustal units. The significantly strengthening seismicity of north set and south set in the North Tanlu fault zone just correspond to the low-velocity and high conductivity layer of crust-upper mantle. In the North Tanlu fault zone, the main controlling structure of the mid-strong seismic generally consists of the active fault sectors, whose crust-mantle structure is more complicated in rigidity massif.

Two-step interface and velocity inversion—— Study o e of the Tangshan seismic region

This paper studies the computation method of two step inversion of interface and velocity in a region. The 3 D interface is described by a segmented incomplete polynomial; while the reconstruction of 3 D velocity is accomplished by the principle of least squares in functional space. The computation is carried out in two steps. The first step is to inverse the shape of 3 D interface; while the second step is to do 3 D velocity inversion by distributing the remaining residual errors of travel time in accordance with their weights. The data of seismic sounding in the Tangshan Luanxian seismic region are processed, from which the 3 D structural form in depth of the Tangshan seismic region and the 3 D velocity distribution in the crust below the Tangshan Luanxian seismic region are obtained. The result shows that the deep 3 D structure in the Tangshan seismic region trends NE on the whole and the structure sandwiched between the NE trending Fengtai Yejituo fault and the NE trending Tangshan fault is an uplifted zone of the Moho. In the 3 D velocity structure of middle lower crust below that region, there is an obvious belt of low velocity anomaly to exist along the NE trending Tangshan fault, the position of which tallies with that of the Tangshan seismicity belt. The larger block of low velocity anomaly near Shaheyi corresponds to a denser earthquake distribution. In that region, there is an NW trending belt of high velocity anomaly, probably a buried fault zone. The lower crust below the epicentral region of the Tangshan M S=7.8 earthquake is a place where the NE trending belt of low velocity anomaly meets the NW trending belt of high velocity anomaly. The two sets of structures had played an important role in controlling the preparation and occurrence of the M S=7.8 Tangshan earthquake.

Influence of uncertainty in delimitation of seismic statistical zone on results of PSHA

The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statis-tical zone scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too. It can be seen that for those local sites along zone's border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.

Lattice-Preferred orientations of olivine in subducting oceanic lithosphere derived from the observed seismic anisotropies in double seismic zones

Subduction zones can generally be classified into Mariana type and Chilean type depending on plate ages, plate thicknesses, subduction angles, back-arc deformation patterns, etc. The double seismic zones （DSZs） in sub- duction zones are mainly divided into type I and type II which, respectively, correspond to the Mariana type and Chilean type in most cases. Seismic anisotropy is an important parameter characterizing the geophysical fea- tures of the lithosphere, including the subduction zones, and can be described by the two parameters of delay time ~t and fast wave polarization direction ~b. We totally col- lected 524 seismic anisotropy data records from 24 DSZs and analyzed the statistical correlations between seismic anisotropy and the related physical parameters of DSZs. Our statistical analysis demonstrated that the fast wave polarization directions are parallel to the trench strike with no more than 30~ for most type I DSZs, while being nearlyperpendicular to the trench strike for type II DSZs. We also calculated roughly linear correlations that the delay time 6t increases with dip angles but decreases with subduction rates. A linear equation was summarized to describe the strong correlation between DSZ＇s subduction angle DSZ and seismic anisotropy in subduction zones. These results suggest that the anisotropic structure of the subducting lithosphere can be described as a possible equivalent crystal similar to the olivine crystal with three mutually orthogonal polarization axes, of which the longest and the second axes are nearly along the trench-perpendicular and trench-parallel directions, respectively.