Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Tidal modeling based on satellite altimetry observations of TOPEX/ Poseidon, Jason1, Jason2, and Jason3 with high prediction capability: A case study of the Baltic Sea

This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations and apply a developed method to produce tidal models with specific tidal constituents for each location.Our tidal modeling methodology follows an iterative process:partitioning sea surface height(SSH)observations into analysis/training and prediction/validation parts and ultimately identi-fying the set of tidal constituents that provide the best predictions at each time series location.The study focuses on developing 1256 time series along the altimetry tracks over the Baltic Sea,each with its own set of tidal constituents.Verification of the developed tidal models against the sSH observations within the prediction/validation part reveals mean absolute error(MAE)values ranging from 0.0334 m to 0.1349 m,with an average MAE of 0.089 m.The same validation process is conducted on the FES2014 and EOT20 global tidal models,demonstrating that our tidal model,referred to as BT23(short for Baltic Tide 2023),outperforms both models with an average MAE improvement of 0.0417 m and 0.0346 m,respectively.In addition to providing details on the development of the time series and the tidal modeling procedure,we offer the 1256 along-track time series and their associated tidal models as supplementary materials.We encourage the satellite altimetry community to utilize these resources for further research and applications.

Effect of compressive strength on the performance of the NEMO-LIM model in Arctic Sea ice simulation

Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.

The gradual subduction-collision evolution model of Proto-South China Sea and its control on oil and gas

This study involved outcrop,drilling,seismic,gravity,and magnetic data to systematically document the geological records of the subduction process of Proto-South China Sea(PSCS)and establish its evolution model.The results indicate that a series of arc-shaped ophiolite belts and calcalkaline magmatic rocks are developed in northern Borneo,both of which have the characteristics of gradually changing younger from west to east,and are direct signs of subduction and collision of PSCS.At the same time,the subduction of PSCS led to the formation of three accretion zones from the south to the north in Borneo,the Kuching belt,Sibu belt,and Miri belt.The sedimentary formation of northern Borneo is characterized by a three-layer structure,with the oceanic basement at the bottom,overlying the deep-sea flysch deposits of the Rajang–Crocker group,and the molasse sedimentary sequence that is dominated by river-delta and shallow marine facies at the top,recording the whole subduction–collision–orogeny process of PSCS.Further,seismic reflection and tomography also confirmed the subduction and collision of PSCS.Based on the geological records of the subduction and collision of PSCS,combined with the comprehensive analysis of segmented expansion and key tectonic events in the South China Sea,we establish the“gradual”subduction-collision evolution model of PSCS.During the late Eocene to middle Miocene,the Zengmu,Nansha,and Liyue–Palawan blocks were separated by West Baram Line and Balabac Fault,which collided with the Borneo block and Kagayan Ridge successively from the west to the east,forming several foreland basin systems,and PSCS subducted and closed from the west to the east.The subduction and extinction of PSCS controlled the oil and gas distribution pattern of southern South China Sea(SSCS)mainly in three aspects.First,the“gradual”closure process of PSCS led to the continuous development of many large deltas in SSCS.Second,the deltas formed during the subduction–collision of PSCS controlled the development of source rocks in the basins of SSCS.Macroscopically,the distribution and scale of deltas controlled the distribution and scale of source rocks,forming two types of source rocks,namely,coal measures and terrestrial marine facies.Microscopically,the difference of terrestrial higher plants carried by the delta controlled the proportion of macerals of source rocks.Third,the difference of source rocks mainly controlled the distribution pattern of oil and gas in SSCS.Meanwhile,the difference in the scale of source rocks mainly controlled the difference in the amount of oil and gas discoveries,resulting in a huge amount of oil and gas discoveries in the basin of SSCS.Meanwhile,the difference of macerals of source rocks mainly controlled the difference of oil and gas generation,forming the oil and gas distribution pattern of“nearshore oil and far-shore gas”.

Adaptive Wind Gust and Associated Gust-factor Model for the Gust-producing Weather over the Northern South China Sea

Wind gusts are common environmental hazards that can damage buildings,bridges,aircraft,and cruise ships and interrupt electric power distribution,air traffic,waterway transport and port operations.Accurately predicting peak wind gusts in numerical models is essential for saving lives and preventing economic losses.This study investigates the climatology of peak wind gusts and their associated gust factors(GFs)using observations in the coastal and open ocean of the northern South China Sea(NSCS),where severe gust-producing weather occurs throughout the year.The stratified climatology demonstrates that the peak wind gust and GF vary with seasons and particularly with weather types.Based on the inversely proportional relationship between the GF and mean wind speed(MWS),a variety of GF models are constructed through least squares regression analysis.Peak gust speed(PGS)forecasts are obtained through the GF models by multiplying the GFs by observed wind speeds rather than forecasted wind speeds.The errors are thus entirely due to the representation of the GF models.The GF models are improved with weather-adaptive GFs,as evaluated by the stratified MWS.Nevertheless,these weather-adaptive GF models show negative bias for predicting stronger PGSs due to insufficient data representation of the extreme wind gusts.The evaluation of the above models provides insight into maximizing the performance of GF models.This study further proposes a stratified process for forecasting peak wind gusts for routine operations.

The influence of lipid-extraction on theδ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea:modification and application of lipid normalization models

Mesopelagic fish,the most important daily vertically migrating community in the oceans,are characterized by high lipid content which may obscure the interpretation of stable isotopes analysis.Demersal fish,which are important consumers in the food web dominated by mesopelagic fish,also have a high lipid content.Here we collected 127 fish samples from the South China Sea and evaluated the effect of lipid contents on△δ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish.In lipid-extracted mesopelagic fish,the C/N content ratio(<5.5)shows a clear correlation withΔδ^(13)C(the offset of bulk and lipid-extractedδ^(13)C values),especially in non-migratory and semi-migratory species;these values were less correlation in demersal fish.Based on our results,we suggest that mesopelagic and demersal fish in different regions of the South China Sea should be studied separately using appropriate correction models and less fit for the traditional model.Moreover,the C/N content ratio should be used cautiously for establishing the lipid normalization model,especially for the fish in migratory mesopelagic fish and demersal fish.Our results also reveal that mesopelagic fish across nearby regions could be analyzed together.The new models described here can be applied in future studies of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea.

A three-dimensional Moho depth model beneath the Yemeni highlands and rifted volcanic margins of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Southwest Arabia

Knowing Moho discontinuity undulation is fundamental to understanding mechanisms of lithosphereasthenosphere interaction, extensional tectonism and crustal deformation in volcanic passive margins such as the study area, which is located in the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula bounded by the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. In this work, a 3D Moho depth model of the study area is constructed for the first time by inverting gravity data from the Earth Gravitational Model(EGM2008) using the ParkerOldenburg algorithm. This model indicates the shallow zone is situated at depths of 20 km to 24 km beneath coastal plains, whereas the deep zone is located below the plateau at depths of 30 km to 35 km and its deepest part coincides mainly with the Dhamar-Rada ’a Quaternary volcanic field. The results also indicate two channels of hot magmatic materials joining both the Sana’a-Amran Quaternary volcanic field and the Late Miocene Jabal An Nar volcanic area with the Dhamar-Rada’a volcanic field. This conclusion is supported by the widespread geothermal activity(of mantle origin) distributed along these channels,isotopic data, and the upper mantle low velocity zones indicated by earlier studies.

Can a global mean sea-level rise reduce the Last Interglacial model-data mismatch in East Asia?

末次间冰期有着丰富的重建和模拟资料,为研究未来温暖气候提供了一个理想的参考.然而,关于末次间冰期的东亚气候,模拟与重建的结果间长期存在着不匹配的情况,模拟结果普遍较重建结果更为冷干。本研究利用挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F),探讨了在末次间冰期模拟试验中纳入全球平均海平面上升能否减少模式-数据的不匹配.该试验结果表明,海平面上升情况下东亚地区会产生一定的增温增湿效应,但不足以消除模式-数据不匹配.基于这些结果,作者探讨了其它可能造成不匹配的因素以供进一步研究.

Regional Climate Damage Quantification and Its Impacts on Future Emission Pathways Using the RICE Model

This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways.Results highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and locations.Specifically,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,respectively.Meanwhile,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,respectively.Additionally,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature change.In China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature changes.Moreover,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively small.By 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.

Identification of thermal front dynamics in the northern Malacca Strait using ROMS 3D-model

The thermal front in the oceanic system is believed to have a significant effect on biological activity.During an era of climate change,changes in heat regulation between the atmosphere and oceanic interior can alter the characteristics of this important feature.Using the simulation results of the 3D Regional Ocean Modelling System(ROMS),we identified the location of thermal fronts and determined their dynamic variability in the area between the southern Andaman Sea and northern Malacca Strait.The Single Image Edge Detection(SIED)algorithm was used to detect the thermal front from model-derived temperature.Results show that a thermal front occurred every year from 2002 to 2012 with the temperature gradient at the location of the front was 0.3°C/km.Compared to the years affected by El Ni?o and negative Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD),the normal years(e.g.,May 2003)show the presence of the thermal front at every selected depth(10,25,50,and 75 m),whereas El Ni?o and negative IOD during 2010 show the presence of the thermal front only at depth of 75 m due to greater warming,leading to the thermocline deepening and enhanced stratification.During May 2003,the thermal front was separated by cooler SST in the southern Andaman Sea and warmer SST in the northern Malacca Strait.The higher SST in the northern Malacca Strait was believed due to the besieged Malacca Strait,which trapped the heat and make it difficult to release while higher chlorophyll a in Malacca Strait is due to the freshwater conduit from nearby rivers(Klang,Langat,Perak,and Selangor).Furthermore,compared to the southern Andaman Sea,the chlorophyll a in the northern Malacca Strait is easier to reach the surface area due to the shallower thermocline,which allows nutrients in the area to reach the surface faster.

Evaluation of Nonbreaking Wave-Induced Mixing Parameterization Schemes Based on a One-Dimensional Ocean Model

Surface waves have a considerable effect on vertical mixing in the upper ocean.In the past two decades,the vertical mixing induced through nonbreaking surface waves has been used in ocean and climate models to improve the simulation of the upper ocean.Thus far,several nonbreaking wave-induced mixing parameterization schemes have been proposed;however,no quantitative comparison has been performed among them.In this paper,a one-dimensional ocean model was used to compare the performances of five schemes,including those of Qiao et al.(Q),Hu and Wang(HW),Huang and Qiao(HQ),Pleskachevsky et al.(P),and Ghantous and Babanin(GB).Similar to previous studies,all of these schemes can decrease the simulated sea surface temperature(SST),increase the subsurface temperature,and deepen the mixed layer,thereby alleviating the common thermal deviation problem of the ocean model for upper ocean simulation.Among these schemes,the HQ scheme exhibited the weakest wave-induced mixing effect,and the HW scheme exhibited the strongest effect;the other three schemes exhibited roughly the same effect.In particular,the Q and P schemes exhibited nearly the same effect.In the simulation based on observations from the Ocean Weather Station Papa,the HQ scheme exhibited the best performance,followed by the Q scheme.In the experiment with the HQ scheme,the root-mean-square deviation of the simulated SST from the observations was 0.43℃,and the mixed layer depth(MLD)was 2.0 m.As a contrast,the deviations of the SST and MLD reached 1.25℃ and 8.4 m,respectively,in the experiment without wave-induced mixing.

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the dynamic sea level:Mean and interannual variance

本研究采用卫星测高数据与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)海平面动力进行对比,重点针对40S-40N地区的动力海平面(DSL),评估了模式对其平均态与年际变率的综合模拟能力,结果表明,对于DSL平均态的模拟,模式与观测结果非常吻合,模式之间的差异较小.其中,副热带北大西洋是模拟偏差和模式间差异较为显著的区域,对于DSL年际变率的模拟,模式之间保持较高的一致性,但是,模式与观测结果存在明显差异,模式普遍低估了DSL的年际方差;其中,误差大值区域出现在副热带西边界流附近,模式分辨率会影响CMIP6对中小尺度海洋过程的重现能力,这可能是导致CMIP6历史模拟出现误差的原因之一.

Persymmetric adaptive polarimetric detection of subspace range-spread targets in compound Gaussian sea clutter

This paper focuses on the adaptive detection of range and Doppler dual-spread targets in non-homogeneous and nonGaussian sea clutter.The sea clutter from two polarimetric channels is modeled as a compound-Gaussian model with different parameters,and the target is modeled as a subspace rangespread target model.The persymmetric structure is used to model the clutter covariance matrix,in order to reduce the reliance on secondary data of the designed detectors.Three adaptive polarimetric persymmetric detectors are designed based on the generalized likelihood ratio test(GLRT),Rao test,and Wald test.All the proposed detectors have constant falsealarm rate property with respect to the clutter texture,the speckle covariance matrix.Experimental results on simulated and measured data show that three adaptive detectors outperform the competitors in different clutter environments,and the proposed GLRT detector has the best detection performance under different parameters.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of water exchange between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal

A high-resolution customized numerical model is used to analyze the water transport in the three major water passages between the Andaman Sea(AS)and the Bay of Bengal,i.e.,the Preparis Channel(PC),the Ten Degree Channel(TDC),and the Great Channel(GC),based on the daily averaged simulation results ranging from 2010 to 2019.Spectral analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)methods are employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the water exchange and controlling mechanisms.The results of model simulation indicate that the net average transports of the PC and GC,as well as their linear trend,are opposite to that of the TDC.This indicates that the PC and the GC are the main inflow channels of the AS,while the TDC is the main outflow channel of the AS.The transport variability is most pronounced at surface levels and between 100 m and 200 m depth,likely affected by monsoons and circulation.A 182.4-d semiannual variability is consistently seen in all three channels,which is also evident in their second principal components.Based on sea level anomalies and EOF analysis results,this is primarily due to equatorial winds during the monsoon transition period,causing eastward movement of Kelvin waves along the AS coast,thereby affecting the spatiotemporal characteristics of the flow in the AS.The first EOF of the PC flow field section shows a split at 100 m deep,likely due to topography.The first EOF of the TDC flow field section is steady but has potent seasonal oscillations in its time series.Meanwhile,the first EOF of the GC flow field section indicates a stable surface inflow,probably influenced by the equatorial Indian Ocean’s eastward current.

Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

Sea Surface Temperature Simulation of Tropical and North Pacific Basins Using a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

A Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model （HYCOM） is used to simulate the sea surface temperature of the Tropical and North Pacific. Based on the different combinations of two air-Sea flux data sets （COADS and ECMWF） and two bulk parameter formulas （non-constant and constant）, four numerical experiments are carried out. The following conclusions can be deduced from the numerical results. （1） The numerical results using non-constant bulk parameter formula are much better than those using constant one. In the Pacific area from 40°N to 20°S, the annual average SST obtained from the experiment using non-constant bulk parameter formula is 0.21 ℃ higher than that from the satellite-based SST climatology （the pathfinder data）. However, the difference is 0.63 ℃ for the experiment when the using constant one. （2） HYCOM successfully simulates the monthly variation of climatological SST in tropical and north Pacific basins and monthly spatial variation of Western Pacific Warm Pool. Especially in the Pacific area from 40°N to 20°S, the difference of the seasonal averaged SST between pathfinder data and the result of experiment 2 （using COADS data set and non-constant bulk parameter formula） is only about 0.02 ℃. （3）The simulation results using different Air-Sea flux data are different and the difference is very large in some regions. In the northwest of the model region, the annual average SST obtained from experiment 2 （using COADS data set） is 1℃ higher than that obtained from experiment 4 （using ECMWF data set）. Contrarily, the result of experiment 4 is 1 ℃ larger than that of experiment 2 in the southeast of the model region. The largest difference is about 4 ℃ occurred near the area of 58°N, 140°E and the Bohai sea.

Numerical modeling of tidal current of LNG terminal in Caofeidian,Bohai Sea

In order to reasonably simulate tidal currents around small structures such as piles in a large-scale model domain, a 2-D hydrodynamic integrated model for Bohai Sea is established with the finite element method. The grid can be discretionarily refined as a non-structure triangle or quadrilateral so that piers can be treated as one or several impermeable elements with an area of 20 to 30 km^2 in a model domain over 85 700 km^2. The computational results of tidal levels and horizontal velocities are in good agreement with the field data. Based on the computed results by the model, the layout of an open 105 DWT liquefied natural gas （LNG）terminal in Caofeidian, Bohal Sea is effectively and reasonably optimized. It can be concluded that the model is suitable and reasonable for direct simulation of tidal currents around small structures in projects.

Application of the two different salinity parameterization schemes in the sea ice model

In this study, we mainly introduce two salinity parameterization schemes used in Sea Ice Simulator （SIS）, that is, isosaline scheme and salinity profile scheme. Comparing the equation of isosaline scheme with that of salinity profile scheme, we found that there was one different term between the two schemes named the salinity different term. The thermodynamic effect of the salinity difference term on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration showed that： in the freezing processes from November to next May, the sea ice temperature could rise on the influence of the salinity difference term and restrain sea ice freezing; at the first melting phase from June to August, the upper ice melting rate was faster than the lower ice melting rate. Then sea ice temperature could rise and accelerate the sea ice melting; at the second melting phase from September to October, the upper ice melting rate was slower than the lower ice melting rate, then sea ice temperature could decrease and restrain sea ice melting. However, the effect of the salinity difference term on the sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration was weak. To analyze the impacts of the salinity different term on Arctic sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, we also designed several experiments by introducing the two salinity parameterizations to the ice-ocean coupled model, Modular Ocean Model （MOM4）, respectively. The simulated results confirmed the previous results of formula derivation.

A Heavy Sea Fog Event over the Yellow Sea in March 2005: Analysis and Numerical Modeling

In this paper, a heavy sea fog episode that occurred over the Yellow Sea on 9 March 2005 is investigated. The sea fog patch, with a spatial scale of several hundred kilometers at its mature stage, reduced visibility along the Shandong Peninsula coast to 100 m or much less at some sites. Satellite images, surface observations and soundings at islands and coasts, and analyses from the Japan Meteorology Agency （JMA） axe used to describe and analyze this event. The analysis indicates that this sea fog can be categorized as advection cooling fog. The main features of this sea fog including fog area and its movement axe reasonably reproduced by the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model （MM5）. Model results suggest that the formation and evolution of this event can be outlined as： （1） southerly warm/moist advection of low-level air resulted in a strong sea-surface-based inversion with a thickness of about 600 m; （2） when the inversion moved from the warmer East Sea to the colder Yellow Sea, a thermal internal boundary layer （TIBL） gradually formed at the base of the inversion while the sea fog grew in response to cooling and moistening by turbulence mixing; （3） the sea fog developed as the TIBL moved northward and （4） strong northerly cold and dry wind destroyed the TIBL and dissipated the sea fog. The principal findings of this study axe that sea fog forms in response to relatively persistent southerly waxm/moist wind and a cold sea surface, and that turbulence mixing by wind shear is the primary mechanism for the cooling and moistening the marine layer. In addition, the study of sensitivity experiments indicates that deterministic numerical modeling offers a promising approach to the prediction of sea fog over the Yellow Sea but it may be more efficient to consider ensemble numerical modeling because of the extreme sensitivity to model input.

A viscoelastic-plastic constitutive model with Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion for sea ice dynamics

A new viscoelastic-plastic （VEP） constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components： Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion, associated normality flow rule for plastic rehololgy, and hydrostatic pressure. The numerical simulations for ice motion in an idealized rectangular basin were made using smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH） method, and compared with the analytical solution as well as those based on the modified viscous plastic（VP） model and static ice jam theory. These simulations show that the new VEP model can simulate ice dynamics accurately. The new constitutive model was further applied to simulate ice dynamics of the Bohai Sea and compared with the traditional VP, and modified VP models. The results of the VEP model are compared better with the satellite remote images, and the simulated ice conditions in the JZ20-2 oil platform area were more reasonable.