Crucial Elements for Understanding Democratization and Autocratization

Aristotle related both dependent variables:democratization and autocratization in his broader explanation of regime change.For him two factors were crucial,the number of rulers(one,a few,the masses)and their values and behavior in terms of normal times and in crises periods.Here we try to be as parsimonious as possible emphasizing the size of the selectorate,as Aristotle knew already.The selectorate comprises the people who have a say in selecting political leaders.In this respect selectorate theory(Bueno de Mesquita et al.)is purely formal and helps to explain both,the origins of democracy and autocracy as well as their dismissal.The size of the selectorate is the crucial intervening variable in linking more specific causes and circumstances for bringing about the respective states on the dependent variables.Other theoretical glimpses will be taken at crises of democracies and autocracies.The size of the electorate can be limited by(brute)force or even through abstaining from the right to vote or using it to abolish democracy for autocracy(Przeworski,Zimmermann,and Saalfeld).Here we emphasize four major blocs of variables:(1)economic success(Lipset,Huntington),(2)the relative size of the consenters,dissenters,and assenters(Easton,Wright,Linz)bolstering even badly performing democratic and autocratic regimes,(3)the exit options and alternatives created for and by political and economic elites,possibly tied to potential mass mobilization and protest action,and(4)democratic peace theory as to external challenges to regime change.A causal model will be developed around those factors hopefully bringing about a consistent understanding of the basic processes of democratization and autocratization.

Globalization Under the Spells of Breakdowns in Supply Chains, Regime Change, Regime Formation, and Alliance Restructuring: How Much Is Left for Public Goods?

In a paper conceived about five years ago(“Globalization and Public Goods:Too Big to Tackle?”)roughly a dozen factors were linked to explain important causal paths from globalization to the potential output of public goods.The Russian invasion of Ukraine,the corona epidemic,and the increased hegemonic rivalry between China and the U.S.interrupted or even destroyed many of the linkages between globalization and potential public good production.About five important detrimental paths involved in the meantime.In the present article we aim at linking what is left from the previous level of globalization or emerging to form a new and simplified causal model for likely linkages between truncated or(re-)emerging globalization,and the deadly needed output of public goods.These linkages refer to rules of climate control,go to trade linkages and arbitrary tariffs and trade interventions.Regime change,regime formation,and alliance restructuring address aspects of domestic rule and international stability.Selectorate theory,regime type,and exit options for political elites provide key explanatory factors in explaining globalization and public goods productions,or their decay.Where possible we use some data and transformation experiences corroborating our arguments.In other instances need for further empirical macro research will become clear.

Globalization and Public Goods:Too Big to Tackle?

The massive Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will have unforeseeable effects on the themes addressed here,from international regime change to infra-structural re-orientation to value changes.Here we concentrate on the positive cycle of effects globalization has brought about before the new war in Europe,mainly economic growth and(some)pressures for democratic development,as well as the negative cycle that originates in(relative)economic decline,elite dissent,even failed states and regime change,often in the direction of counter-democracy.The causal links between 13 independent and intervening variables and public goods as the dependent variable are specified in this explanatory sketch.There is need for broadening the view in explaining causal paths between globalization factors and the production of public goods.In doing that we focus in particular on variables like elite dissent,immigration,and new minorities,all three weakening the capacities of states to respond.Further we state that all four:ecological challenges,economic and social inequality and polarization,regime change,and international terrorism can be viewed as to their joint effects on the production of public goods.Selectorate theory is crucial.It explains political regimes on the base of the size of the selectorate with large(s)electorates producing public goods,as in democracies,and small ones only private ones,as in sultanist regimes and dictatorships.