The structure of earthquake series on the Chinese mainland and in the main seismic provinces has a very good rhythm of nature. Strong earthquakes take 8 times of passing hrough the mid-strong earthquake as a section a...The structure of earthquake series on the Chinese mainland and in the main seismic provinces has a very good rhythm of nature. Strong earthquakes take 8 times of passing hrough the mid-strong earthquake as a section and occur on section points in this way (or multiple 8). The rhythmic activities of strong earthquakes indifferent provinces are both similar and independent, and are not related to the time of occurrence. These phenomena indicate that the earthquake activities are a regular behaviour of self-organization with self-rhythm.展开更多
Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the...Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the self-rhythm phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction.展开更多
文摘The structure of earthquake series on the Chinese mainland and in the main seismic provinces has a very good rhythm of nature. Strong earthquakes take 8 times of passing hrough the mid-strong earthquake as a section and occur on section points in this way (or multiple 8). The rhythmic activities of strong earthquakes indifferent provinces are both similar and independent, and are not related to the time of occurrence. These phenomena indicate that the earthquake activities are a regular behaviour of self-organization with self-rhythm.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (10373017).
文摘Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the self-rhythm phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction.
